Seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological processes during 1994–2001 in the Sea of Japan/East Sea: A three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical modeling study

A Pacific basin-wide physical–biogeochemical model has been used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological fields with analyses focusing on the Sea of Japan/East Sea (JES). The physical model is based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), and the biogeochemical model is based on the Carbon, Si(OH)₄, Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model. The coupled ROMS–CoSiNE model is forced with the daily air–sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis for the period of 1994 to 2001, and the model results are used to evaluate climate impact on nutrient transport in Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics in the JES.The model reproduces several key features of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents, which are consistent with the previous modeling and observational results in the JES. The calculated volume transports through the three major straits show that the Korea Strait (KS) dominates the inflow to the JES with 2.46 Sv annually, and the Tsugaru Strait (TS) and the Soya Strait (SS) are major outflows with 1.85 Sv and 0.64 Sv, respectively. Domain-averaged phytoplankton biomass in the JES reaches its spring peak 1.8 mmol N m^− 3 in May and shows a relatively weak autumn increase in November. Strong summer stratification and intense consumption of nitrate by phytoplankton during the spring result in very low nitrate concentration at the upper layer, which limits phytoplankton growth in the JES during the summer. On the other hand, the higher grazer abundance likely contributes to the strong suppression of phytoplankton biomass after the spring bloom in the JES. The model results show strong interannual variability of SST, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass with sudden changes in 1998, which correspond to large-scale changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Regional comparisons of interannual variations in springtime were made for the southern and northern JES. Variations of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass related to the PDO warm/cold phase changes were detected in both the southern and northern JES, and there were regional differences with respect to the mechanisms and timing. During the warm PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD increased in the south and decreased in the north in winter. Conversely, during the cold PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD decreased in the south and increased in the north. Wind divergence/convergence likely drives the differences in the southern and northern regions when northerly and northwesterly monsoon dominates in winter in the JES. Subjected to the nutrient change, the growth of phytoplankton biomass appears to be limited neither by nutrient nor by light consistently both in the southern and northern regions. Namely, the JES is at the transition zone of the lower trophic-level ecosystem between light-limited and nutrient-limited zones.     

Interannual variation of the Polar Front in the Japan/East Sea from summertime hydrography and sea level data

The Polar Front in the Japan/East Sea separates the southern warm water region from the northern cold water region. A merged TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1/2 altimeter dataset and upper water temperature data were used to determine the frontal location and to examine the structure of its interannual variability from 1993 to 2001. The identified frontal location, where sea surface height gradient has a maximum about 10–20 cm over the horizontal distance of 100 km, corresponds well to the maximum subsurface horizontal temperature gradient. The front migrates more widely (36°N–41°N) in the western part of the sea than in the eastern part. The interannual migration induces large variability in upper water temperatures and sea surface height in the western region. Responsible physical mechanisms were studied using a reduced-gravity model. Differences between inflow and outflow change the total volume of warm water, and total warm water volume change in the warm water region uniformly pushes the front in the meridional direction across its mean position in the model simulation. Interannual variation of wind stress causes relatively wide migration of the modeled front in the western part.     

Review on the seasonal variation of the surface circulation in the Japan/East Sea

The seasonal variation of the surface circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and the Tsushima/Korea Straits (TKS) is reviewed and discussed, focusing on mesoscale and submesoscale variabilities.The monsoon modified by coastal geographical features near Vladivostok generates a dipole of vortex off Vladivostok which induces dramatic changes in the surface circulation in the northwest JES, splitting the Subpolar Gyre into two smaller gyres by generating the Vladivostok Dome. Between these two smaller gyres, the Northwest Thermal Front is formed and current reversal is induced along the North Korean coast. The winter monsoon also induces a current reversal along the Sakhalin coast. The volume transport of the surface Subpolar Gyre has two maxima in January and August. The maximum in August is induced by the summer intensification of the Liman-North Korean Cold Current and the shallow and narrow surface coastal jet generated by the sea ice and snow melting. The maximum in January is induced by the northwest monsoon and associated cooling.Salient features in the TKS are the submesoscale variabilities. In the western channel, submesoscale eddies with length scale of about 80 km and time scale of 5–6 days develop in the cold period. On the lee side of the Tsushima Islands, Karman-like vortex pairs are generated in the warm period. Anticyclonic vortices generated at the northern tip of the Tsushima Islands have a time scale of 5 to 8 days, length scale of 35 to 60 km, and propagate toward the JES with a phase speed of 8 cm/s. Cyclonic vortices south of the anticyclonic counter part of the vortex pairs are rather stationary with intermittent occasional propagation toward the east. The development of stratification seems to be necessary for the development of Karman-like vortex pairs.Summarizing the results above, a schematic surface circulation with seasonal change is proposed.     

Late summer stratification, internal waves, and turbulence in the Yellow Sea

Microstructure profiling measurements at two locations in the Yellow Sea (a deeper central basin and a local shelf break) were analyzed focusing on tidal and internal-wave induced turbulence near the bottom and in the pycnocline. A classical three-layer density structure consisting of weakly stratified surface and bottom boundary layers and a narrow sharp pycnocline is developed by the end of warm season. Turbulence in the surface layer was not influenced by the tidal forcing but by the diurnal cycle of buoyancy flux and wind forcing at the sea surface. The enhanced dissipation and diffusivity generated by the shear stress at the seafloor was found in the water interior at heights 10–15 m above the bottom with a phase shift of ~ 5–6 m/h. No internal waves, turbulence, or mixing were detected in the pycnocline in the central basin, in contrast to the pycnocline near the local shelf break wherein internal waves of various frequencies were observed all the time. The thickness of the surface layer near the local shelf break slightly exceeded that of the bottom layer (20 vs. 18 m). A 5–6 m high vertical displacement of the pycnocline, which emerged during the low tide, was arguably caused by the passage of an internal soliton of elevation. During this episode, the gradient Richardson number decreased below 0.25 due to enhanced vertical shear, leading to local generation of turbulence with dissipation rates exceeding the background level by an order of magnitude.     

Response of the Black Sea mean level to atmospheric pressure and wind forcing

The response of the Black Sea mean level to atmospheric pressure (AP) and wind forcing is investigated using 5 years of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P hereafter) data. A coherence analysis is first applied to mean sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the inverse barometer (IB) approximation over this area. As expected, it reveals very significant deviations from an IB response attributed to the narrowness of the Bosphorus Strait and its limiting role in water exchanges. A comparison is drawn with the Mediterranean Sea case. A single basin version of the Candela analytical model [Candela, J., 1991. The Gibraltar Strait and its role in the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 15, 267–300], which takes linear friction at the strait into account, is then used. The model explains a significant part of the T/P mean sea level variance (about 30%, while the IB correction only explains 5% of its variance) and provides a means to correct the altimeter data for the pressure effect much better than the standard IB effect. The response of the mean sea level to wind forcing is then analysed. Coherence analysis between sea level and along-strait wind stress (WS) reveals a significant coherence at periods ranging from 40 to 100 days, with an almost steady phase of 270°. This result is confirmed with a multiple coherence analysis (mean sea level vs. WS and AP). A plausible mechanism is a piling-up of water at the northern or southern end of the strait due to along-strait wind forcing. The associated along-strait pressure gradient would modify the barotropic flow in the strait and then the mean sea level. Using an extension of the Candela model, we show that this mechanism is consistent with T/P mean sea level observations.     

Relationship between phytoplankton bloom and wind stress in the sub-polar frontal area of the Japan/East Sea

The seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton blooms in the central Japan/East Sea (JES) show pronounced year-to-year variability based on Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; 19972003) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra (20002003) observations. Wind seems to strongly influence this variability. To study the relationship between wind and bloom initiation, we analyzed daily, remotely sensed wind stress data (Active Microwave Instrument–wind [AMI–wind], NASA Scatterometer [NSCAT], and Quick Scatterometer [QuickSCAT]: 19972003) and daily chlorophyll concentrations based on ocean color data (SeaWiFS and MODIS). The results agreed well with the hypotheses; in spring, blooms began 615 days after wind stress weakened. Fall blooms started 39 days after wind strengthened. We also simulated seasonal changes using a simple light–nutrient model using two values for the respiration ratio: 10% and 20%. The use of 20% seemed to reproduce the timing of the spring bloom quite well but underestimated the absolute level of chlorophyll concentration. On the other hand, using 10% produced a better estimation of the chlorophyll concentration but failed to match the timing. Neither of the model runs reproduced the timing of the fall bloom well.     

Wind-triggered events of phytoplankton downward flux in the Northeast Water Polynya

Phytoplankton carbon fluxes were studied in the Northeast Water (NEW) Polynya, off the eastern coast of Greenland (79° to 81°N, 6° to 17°W), during summer 1993. The downward flux of organic particles was determined during 54 days using a sediment trap moored at a fixed location, below the pycnocline (130 m). The hypothesis of the present study is that wind events were ultimately responsible for the events of diatoms downward flux recorded in the trap.Wind conditions can influence the vertical transport of phytoplankton by affecting (1) the environmental conditions (e.g. hydrostatic pressure, nutrient concentrations, and irradiance) encountered by phytoplankton during their vertical excursion, and (2) the aggregation and disaggregation of phytoplankton flocs. The first mechanism affects the physiological regulation of buoyancy, whereas the second one affects the size and shape of settling particles.Using field data (wind velocity, density profiles and phytoplankton abundance), we assessed the potential aggregation and the vertical excursion of phytoplankton in surface waters. The results show that, upstream from the trap, wind and hydrodynamic conditions were sometimes favourable to the downward export of phytoplankton. Lag-correlation between time series of wind and phytoplankton downward flux shows that flux events lagged wind events by ca. 16 days. Given that the average current velocity in the top 100 m was ca. 10 cm s⁻¹, a lag of 16 days corresponded to a lateral transport of ca. 130 km, upstream from the sediment trap, where phytoplankton production was lower than at the location of the trap. According to that scenario, 21% to 60% of primary production was exported to depth during wind events. If we had assumed instead a tight spatial coupling between the material collected in the trap and the relatively high phytoplankton production at the location of the trap, we would have concluded that <7% of primary production was exported to depth. The difference between the two scenarios has great implications for the fate of phytoplankton. Our results stress the importance of investigating the spatial coupling between surface and trap data before assessing the pathways of phytoplankton carbon cycling.     

A two-dimensional response to a tropical storm on the Gulf of Mexico shelf

Surface current data from drifting buoys and remotely sensed wind data recorded over the continental shelf in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the passage of tropical storm Josephine in October 1996 are examined. Drifter data show the existence of a strong surface jet (velocities reaching 1 m s⁻¹) that moves up the west Florida shelf and westward along the Louisiana–Texas shelf, and lasts for nearly 1 week. The coastal jet occurs during an intense synoptic scale wind event where wind speeds reach 15 m s⁻¹. A simple force balance and statistical analysis are performed to assess the role of strong wind forcing. The primary balance shows an Ekman-type current. The role of local acceleration is greatest when winds are directed along bathymetry. A simple two-dimensional strongly forced shelf response model developed from the linear steady-state momentum equations also indicates larger along-shore currents due to both Ekman-type forcing by cross-shore winds and a cross-shore pressure gradient arising from conservation of mass. Model parameters fit empirically are within 15% of theoretical values. The simple model explains 30% and 46% of the variance in the observed along-shore and cross-shore surface currents, respectively.     

The impact of exceptionally warm summer inflow events on the environmental conditions in the Bornholm Basin

In late summer 2002 and 2003, exceptionally warm inflow events of saline water were observed in the Baltic. These warm saline waters were embedded in the halocline of the Bornholm Basin and caused a strong anomaly of the seasonal temperature cycle. The temperature in October 2002 was the highest ever observed in the halocline of the Bornholm Basin.Although the oxygen content of the inflowing water was only about 1.5 ml l^− 1 at the Darss Sill, it caused a moderate ventilation of the halocline in the Bornholm Basin. On the way through the Arkona Basin, the entrainment of ambient water increased the oxygen content of the inflowing saline water masses.Warm summer inflows were rare events in the last 50 years, but their frequency has increased since 1990. This is likely caused by climate change. The analysis of a 50-year time series of hydrographic parameters reveals significant changes of the thermal regime around the year 1988. The winter surface and intermediate water temperatures of the Bornholm Basin increased by about 1 °C. Also, the duration of warm water in the surface layer was prolonged after 1988. A high correlation between the minimum intermediate winter water temperatures and the NAO winter index was found.Since temperature is a key parameter for many biological processes various responses of the ecosystem to the change in hydrographic conditions could be expected. Possible biological implications of the warm inflow events for the ecosystem are discussed.     

Seasonal upwelling underneath the Tsushima Warm Current along the Japanese shelf slope

Seasonal upwelling variations are examined in the eastward coastal boundary branches of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC). The climatological pattern and the fundamental hydrographic structure of the seasonal appearance of cold water are revealed by analyzing the temperature profile data around the Japanese shelf area. Seasonal maps of temperature at the intermediate layer around 200 m depth show the rise of the main pycnocline along the Japanese coast due to seasonal subsurface cooling from May to September. The cold water areas appear around the strong curvature in the continental shelf break. These areas are confined to the south of the TWC thermal front, i.e., to the coastal boundary region. The seasonal appearance of the localized cooling areas implies that the seasonal upwelling is induced by horizontal variations in shelf topography and the intensifying TWC from May to September.     

Propagation and origin of warm anomalies in the Angola Benguela upwelling system in 2001

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures were observed by the Tropical Rainfall Mission Microwave Imager in the Angola Benguela Current system in late austral summer 2001 and persisted for about three months. These coastal anomalies extended offshore by 1 to 4° longitude and were not due to local ocean atmosphere interaction or relaxation of the upwelling favorable southerly winds. Instead, they were remotely forced by ocean atmosphere interaction in the Tropical Atlantic. Satellite remote sensing and a linear ocean model suggest that relaxation of trade winds along the equator triggered Kelvin waves that crossed the basin within a month in early 2001. Westerly wind anomalies were also observed in December 2000 and January 2001 over most of the Tropical Atlantic contributing to a warm preconditioning due to an enhancement of the oceanic annual cycle. This led to abnormal sea level heights near equatorial Africa that propagated southwards along the coast towards the Angola Benguela Frontal zone. This process increased the seasonal penetration of warm and salty water of tropical origin into the Angola Benguela upwelling system.     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

The winter St. Helena climate index and extreme Benguela upwelling

Climate changes in the subtropical South-east Atlantic turn out to be well described by the St. Helena Island Climate Index (HIX) and observed fluctuations are in good agreement with inter-decadal variability of the entire South Atlantic Ocean. Year-to-year variations of the averaged austral winter HIX (July–September), representative of the main upwelling season, were compared with (i) corresponding averages of the geostrophic alongshore component of the south-east trade wind (SET) between St. Helena Island in the south-west and Luanda/Angola in the north-east, (ii) the meridional distribution of surface waters colder than 13 °C to characterise intense Benguela upwelling (IBU), and (iii) the meridional position of the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) determined by means of sea surface temperature images for offshore distances between 50 and 400 km. Temporal changes of these parameters were investigated and showed that the frequency of consecutive years of strong and relaxed Benguela upwelling is characterised by a quasi-cycle of about 11–14 years. It is proposed that the index of the winter HIX may be used as a ‘surveyor’s rod' to describe interannual changes in the Benguela upwelling regime as well as those of the embedded marine ecosystem.     

Validation of the 3D biogeochemical model MIRO&CO with field nutrient and phytoplankton data and MERIS-derived surface chlorophyll a images

This paper presents results obtained with MIRO&CO-3D, a biogeochemical model dedicated to the study of eutrophication and applied to the Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea (48.5°N–52.5°N). The model results from coupling of the COHERENS-3D hydrodynamic model and the biogeochemical model MIRO, which was previously calibrated in a multi-box implementation. MIRO&CO-3D is run to simulate the annual cycle of inorganic and organic carbon and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and silica), phytoplankton (diatoms, nanoflagellates and Phaeocystis), bacteria and zooplankton (microzooplankton and copepods) with realistic forcing (meteorological conditions and river loads) for the period 1991–2003. Model validation is first shown by comparing time series of model concentrations of nutrients, chlorophyll a, diatom and Phaeocystis with in situ data from station 330 (51°26.00′N, 2°48.50′E) located in the centre of the Belgian coastal zone. This comparison shows the model's ability to represent the seasonal dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton in Belgian waters. However the model fails to simulate correctly the dissolved silica cycle, especially during the beginning of spring, due to the late onset (in the model) of the early spring diatom bloom. As a general trend the chlorophyll a spring maximum is underestimated in simulations. A comparison between the seasonal average of surface winter nutrients and spring chlorophyll a concentrations simulated with in situ data for different stations is used to assess the accuracy of the simulated spatial distribution. At a seasonal scale, the spatial distribution of surface winter nutrients is in general well reproduced by the model with nevertheless a small overestimation for a few stations close to the Rhine/Meuse mouth and a tendency to underestimation in the coastal zone from Belgium to France. PO₄ was simulated best; silica was simulated with less success. Spring chlorophyll a concentration is in general underestimated by the model. The accuracy of the simulated phytoplankton spatial distribution is further evaluated by comparing simulated surface chlorophyll a with that derived from the satellite sensor MERIS for the year 2003. Reasonable agreement is found between simulated and satellite-derived regions of high chlorophyll a with nevertheless discrepancies close to the boundaries.     

Influence of model domain size,wind directions and Ekman transport on storm surge development inside the Chesapeake Bay: A case study of extratropical cyclone Ernesto, 2006

The Chesapeake Bay is vulnerable to severe flooding caused by hurricanes and strong Northeasters. A 3D storm surge model of the Chesapeake Bay is developed for studying the impact of model domain size, wind directions and Ekman transport on the storm surge in the Chesapeake Bay. The model encompasses the Chesapeake Bay and the US East Coast shelf to reduce the influence of model domain size on surge prediction inside the Chesapeake Bay and to account for both local and remote wind effects. This study used 3D model experiments, with respect to different wind directions, to diagnose the relative influences of the local and remote wind effects and Ekman transport on spatial surge distribution during storm events. The model results confirmed that spatial surge distribution can be well explained by the superposition of two distinct physically driven mechanisms during a storm event: incoming surge wave caused by remote effects and local wind forcings. A large model domain is a necessity for predicting storm surge accurately inside the Chesapeake Bay. The model results suggest that the interactions of the incoming surge propagating into the Bay and the local wind forcing from N and NE directions result in an enhanced setup in the lower to middle portions of the Bay, whereas the superposition of incoming surge and the local wind forcing from S and SE directions enhance the surge in the upper Bay region. A combined northwesterly wind over the middle to upper portions of the Bay and southwesterly wind over the lower Bay can cause a large setdown throughout the entire Bay. The Ekman setup along the coast contributes significantly to the water level variations during storm events. It enhances (reduces) surge inside the Bay under the wind forcings from N and NE (SW, S, and SE) directions.     

Large-scale physical controls on phytoplankton growth in the Irminger Sea, Part II: Model study of the physical and meteorological preconditioning

The upper water column in the Irminger Sea is characterized by cold fresh arctic and subarctic waters and warm saline North Atlantic waters. In this study the local physical and meteorological preconditioning of the phytoplankton development over an annual cycle in the upper water column in four physical zones of the Irminger Sea is investigated. Data from four cruises of the UK's Marine Productivity programme are combined with results from a coupled biological–physical nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus model run using realistic forcing. The observations and model predictions are compared and analyzed to identify the key parameters and processes which determine the observed heterogeneity in biological production in the Irminger Sea. The simulations show differences in the onset of the bloom, in the time of the occurrence of the maximum phytoplankton biomass and in the length of the bloom between the zones. The longest phytoplankton bloom of 90 days duration was predicted for the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone. In contrast, for the Central Irminger Sea zone a phytoplankton bloom with a start at the beginning of May and the shortest duration of only 70 days was simulated. The latest onset of the phytoplankton bloom in mid May and the latest occurrence of the maximum biomass (end of July) were predicted for the Northern Irminger Current zone. Here the bloom lasted for 80 days. In contrast the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Irminger Current zone started at the same time as in Central Irminger Sea, but peaked end of June and lasted for 80 days. For all four zones relatively low daily (0.3–0.5 g C m^− 2d^− 1) and annual primary production was simulated, ranging between 35.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone and 45.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the Northern Irminger Current zone. The model successfully simulated the observed regional and spatial differences in terms of the maximum depth of winter mixing, the onset of stratification and the development of the seasonal thermocline, and the differences in biological characteristics between the zones. The initial properties of the water column and the seasonal cycle of physical and meteorological forcing in each of the zones are responsible for the observed differences during the Marine Productivity cruises. The timing of the transition from mixing to stratification regime, and the different prevailing light levels in each zone are identified as the crucial processes/parameters for the understanding of the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Irminger Sea.     

A numerical model of the long term flow along the Malin-Hebrides shelf

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Malin-Hebrides shelf region is used to investigate the spatial variability of the wind and tidally induced residual flow in the region and the influence of flow from the Irish Sea and along the shelf edge. By this means it is possible to understand the spatial variability in the long term observed flow fields in the region and the range of driving forces producing this flow. The model uses a sigma coordinate grid in the vertical with a finer grid in the near surface and near bed shear layers. The vertical diffusion of momentum in the model is parameterised using an eddy viscosity coefficient which is derived from turbulence energy closure models. Two different turbulence models are used to compute the eddy viscosity, namely a two-equation (itq²−q²ℓ) model which has prognostic equations for both turbulence energy and mixing length and a simpler model in which the mixing length is a specified algebraic function of the water depth.The wind induced response to spatially and temporally constant orthogonal wind stresses, namely westerly and southerly winds of 1 N m⁻², are derived from the model. By using orthogonal winds and assuming linearity, then to first order the response to any wind direction can be derived. Computed flows show a uniform wind driven surface layer of magnitude about 3% of the wind speed and direction 15 ° to the right of the wind, in deep water. Currents at depth particularly in the shelf edge and near coastal region show significant spatial variability which is related to variations in bottom topography and the coastline.Calculations show that tidal residual flows are only significant in the near coastal regions where the tidal current is strong and exhibits spatial variability. Flow into the region from the Irish Sea through the North Channel although having its greatest influence in the near coastal region, does affect currents near the shelf edge region. Again the spatial variability of the flow is influenced by topographic effects.A detailed examination of wind induced current profiles together with turbulence, mixing length and viscosity, at a number of locations in the model from deep ocean to shallow near coastal, shows that both turbulence models yield comparable results, with the mixing length in the two equation model showing a similar dependence to that specified in the simpler turbulence model.Calculations clearly show that flow along the shelf edge area to the west of Ireland and from the Irish Sea entering the region, together with local wind forcing can have a major effect upon currents along the Malin-Hebrides shelf. The flow fields show significant spatial variability in the region, comparable to those deduced from long term tracer measurements. The spatial variability found in the calculations suggests that a very intense measurement programme together with inflow measurements into the area is required to understand the circulation in the region, and provide data sets suitable for a rigorous model validation.     

Resolving the impact of short-term variations in physical processes impacting on the spawning environment of eastern Baltic cod: application of a 3-D hydrodynamic model

Variations in oxygen conditions below the permanent halocline influence the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea through a number of mechanisms. In this study, we examine the effects of physical forcing on variations in the volume of deep oxygenated water suitable for reproductive success of central Baltic cod. Recent research has identified the importance of inflows of saline and oxygenated North Sea water into the Baltic Sea for the recruitment of Baltic cod. However, other processes have been suggested to modify this reproduction volume including variations in timing and volume of terrestrial runoff, variability of the solubility of oxygen due to variations in sea surface temperature as well as the influence of variations in wind stress. In order to examine the latter three mechanisms, we have performed simulations utilizing the Kiel Baltic Sea model for a period of a weak to moderate inflow of North Sea water into the Baltic, modifying wind stress, freshwater runoff and thermal inputs. The model is started from three-dimensional fields of temperature, salinity and oxygen obtained from a previous model run and forced by realistic atmospheric conditions. Results of this realistic reference run were compared to runs with modified meteorological forcing conditions and river runoff.From these simulations, it is apparent that processes other than major Baltic inflows have the potential to alter the reproduction volume of Baltic cod. Low near-surface air temperatures in the North Sea, the Skagerrak/Kattegat area and in the western Baltic influence the water mass properties (high oxygen solubility). Eastward oriented transports of these well-oxygenated highly saline water masses may have a significant positive impact on the Baltic cod reproduction volume in the Bornholm Basin.Finally, we analysed how large scale and local atmospheric forcing conditions are related to the identified major processes affecting the reproduction volume.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.