An analysis of freight rate volatility in dry bulk shipping markets

The world bulk shipping market has been in a peak period since 2003, and this has lasted an incredibly long time considering that the markets are much more complex than before. This paper investigates the characteristics of volatility in dry bulk freight rates of different vessel sizes (capesize, panamax and handysize). The daily returns of freight rate indices of three different types of bulk vessel in the sample period have been examined. The sample period ran from 1 March 1999 to 23 December 2005, and applying the GARCH (generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model showed that the shocks will not decrease but have the tendency to strengthen for all the daily return series. Further, external shocks on the market have a different magnitude of influence on volatility in different types of vessels due to their distinct flexibility. To examine the asymmetric characters of daily return volatility in different bulk shipping sectors and different market conditions, the sample was divided into two periods: one is from 1 March 1999 to 31 December 2002, the other is from 1 January 2003 to 23 December 2005; the EGARCH (exponential generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model was then applied to investigate the asymmetric impact between past innovations and current volatility. The results show that the asymmetric characters are distinct for different vessel size segments and different market conditions. The reasons for the results are discussed and it is considered that the main reasons may be the different flexibility and different commodity transport on different routes. The results from this investigation will be useful for the operators and investors in the dry bulk shipping market to increase profitability and reduce investment risk.     

集装箱运输应收运费管理实务

为加强船公司海外代理的应收运费管理,介绍集装箱海运费的构成及其结算业务流程,分析影响应收运费的风险因素,从应收运费内部控制制度、客户信用动态管理体系、重点业务及事项控制活动等方面进行实务探讨。     

Seasonality patterns in the container shipping freight rate market

Shipping indexes have attracted many researchers because they reflect the overall trend of corresponding seaborne markets and can provide implications for the future. Apart from the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) and correlated indices, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been gaining more attention. As a country with large-scale manufacturing, China is an important exporting country and the CCFI was chosen to reflect the container shipping market because the data are more convincing and representative. There have been no systematic attempts to understand the seasonality patterns of container freights. Seasonality patterns reveal the regular fluctuation patterns within a 1-year period. They exist in time series, which are observed more than once a year, like the CCFI. To investigate the nature of seasonality (stochastic and/or deterministic) in container freight rates across different line services, we analyze the CCFI. This paper uses the HEGY method and Monte Carlo method comprehensively to figure out the small sample problem. In addition, seasonal dummy variables are used to test deterministic seasonality. Except for the Japan service series, which contains a half-year unit root, the other container freight rates seem to only involve a non-seasonal unit root at the zero frequency. Deterministic seasonality exists in all the line service series. Furthermore, the seasonality depends on the balance between supply and demand. Under this premise, the seasonal law of freight rates is much obvious.     

航运企业运费管理内部控制

为提高运费管理水平,保障运费收入,实现航运企业持续稳定发展,针对航运企业运费管理存在的问题,分析航运企业运费管理内部控制缺失的主要原因,提出运费回收与考核挂钩、优化业务流程、加强制度建设、控制信用风险等内部控制建设措施等建议。     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

国际、国内海运市场运价简况

1 矿石过度进口,国际干散货运输市场虚假繁荣重现 5月29日,波交所干散货综合运价指数(BDI)报收3494点,较上月上涨96%,其中:海岬型船6125点,较上月上涨161%;巴拿马型船2900点,较上月上涨90%;大灵便型船1831点,较上月上涨28%.受全球大宗货物价格上扬、需求逐渐回暖、远期合约FFA市场重现活跃等利好推动,5月份国际干散货海运市场承接上月上升势头,继续高歌猛进,BDI一举突破3000点关口,创单月增幅历史之最.虽然自去年12月663点反弹以来增幅已超4倍多,但较历史高点11793点仍下降7成.5月份,3大主力船型运价全线飘红,其中以承运铁矿石为主的海岬型船运价最为惊人,反弹速度及高度大大超出市场预期.     

国际、国内海运市场运价简况（2009年8月）

1国际干散货运输市场继续向下调整 8月28日,波交所干散货综合运价指数（BDI）报收2421点,较上月下降28％,其中：海岬型船3936点,较上月下降27％;巴拿马型船2157点,较上月下降32％;大灵便型船1740点,较上月下降16％。     

国际、国内海运市场运价简况

1货量不抵运能增长,集装箱运价旺季中回落9月17日,上海航运交易所（简称上交所）9月份最后1个交易日发布的中国出口集装箱综合运价指数报收于1197点,环比下降1．5％,同比上涨30．1％。     

An analysis of efficiency of the bulk shipping markets

This article discusses the market efficiency of bulk shipping fleets in both the short and long term perspectives. In the short term it demonstrates that shipowners are profit maximizers and that freight rates are equal to marginal cost, that evidencing allocative efficiency of resources. It assumes that the market is differentiated but the intra-marginal substitution takes place. While it is shown that the marginal cost functions of individual vessels, which are aggregated to provide the market supply schedule, are only unique for a specific voyage, provided the general pattern of trade remains more or less constant the supply function is likely to be relatively insensitive to individual changes in ships' MCs. In the long term it is argued that the market is far less efficient with many factors combining to prevent accurate matching of supply and demand for any but for a very short period of time. In recent years supply has exceeded demand by a considerable amount and it is concluded that finance for ships should be provided primarily from shipowners' accumulated reserves and that loan capital should finance a much smaller proportion of the costs of independent tonnage.     

Network economies in liner shipping: the role of home markets

This paper deals with the measurement of the network complexity of some selected shipping groups, also identifying the contribution of co-operative agreements among carriers. The empirical investigation is focused on: (i) the analysis of the distribution of the carrying capacity per range; and (ii) the comparison of that capacity with the throughput handled in the port facilities of the group. These variables are interpreted in the light of the impact that alliances have on the geographical wideness of the services supplied by each partner. This factor also allows to depict how the cultural and political origin of shipping lines affects the decision of joining an alliance and the outcomes deriving from such co-operation.     

Network economies in liner shipping: the role of home markets

This paper deals with the measurement of the network complexity of some selected shipping groups, also identifying the contribution of co-operative agreements among carriers. The empirical investigation is focused on: (i) the analysis of the distribution of the carrying capacity per range; and (ii) the comparison of that capacity with the throughput handled in the port facilities of the group. These variables are interpreted in the light of the impact that alliances have on the geographical wideness of the services supplied by each partner. This factor also allows to depict how the cultural and political origin of shipping lines affects the decision of joining an alliance and the outcomes deriving from such co-operation.     

Problems faced by the shipping industry in raising capital in the securities markets

This papers examines the reasons for the shipping industry's general failure to exploit the enormous capital raising potential offered by the world's major security markets. The basic reason put forward is one of joint ignorance and lack a of communication. On the one hand shipping perceives the market as being unsympathetic to its requierments. On the other hand, the Stock market assess it as a minor activity and this is combined with a presumption of industrial instability. An analysis of recent initial public offering of equaity options in shipping highlights the inadequacy of companies who have ventured that way. In particular it is pointed out that shipping companies who embark on such a course must not forget that equaity is, at one end the same time, the cheapest and the most expensive money which they can raise. There is a further underlying problem for the industry, which is that market capital raising neccessiates the loss of personal control.     

货物、航运、造船三个市场相关性研究

货物市场是国际贸易市场的重要组成部分,航运市场是国际贸易市场的派生市场,造船市场是航运市场的相关市场和要素市场。世界造船市场的发展主要取决于航运市场的兴衰,而航运市场的兴衰与货物市场的规模有着直接关系,这种关系是一种连锁的反应关系。造船市场振兴,依赖航运市场支持,航运市场繁荣需要货物市场发展。把握好三者的相互关系对货主、航运、造船企业投资决策具有极为重要的意义。     

Problems faced by the shipping industry in raising capital in the securities markets

This papers examines the reasons for the shipping industry's general failure to exploit the enormous capital raising potential offered by the world's major security markets. The basic reason put forward is one of joint ignorance and lack a of communication. On the one hand shipping perceives the market as being unsympathetic to its requierments. On the other hand, the Stock market assess it as a minor activity and this is combined with a presumption of industrial instability. An analysis of recent initial public offering of equaity options in shipping highlights the inadequacy of companies who have ventured that way. In particular it is pointed out that shipping companies who embark on such a course must not forget that equaity is, at one end the same time, the cheapest and the most expensive money which they can raise. There is a further underlying problem for the industry, which is that market capital raising neccessiates the loss of personal control.     

国际、国内海运市场运价简况（2007年7月）

1国际煤炭需求增长,干散货运价创历史新高7月31日波罗的海干散货综合运价指数(BDI)6967点,日均6572点,较上月上涨13.9%。其中,海岬型船8930点,日均8439点,较上月上涨10.8%;巴拿马型船7384点,日均7100点,较上月     

国际、国内海运市场运价简况(2009年11月)

1 箱量平稳上升,指数接近千点11月30日,上海航运交易所中国出口集装箱综合运价指数报收993点,较上月上涨3%,同比下降3%.虽然圣诞货物出运高潮进入尾声,但世界经济逐步恢复使货量继续稳步上升.11月份,港口集装箱吞吐量完成1 085万TEU,日均环比增长4%.     

国际、国内海运市场运价简况（2010年8月）

1货量创新高,集装箱运价高位滞涨8月27日,上海航运交易所（简称航交所）中国出口集装箱综合运价指数报收于1215点,环比上涨0．5％,同比上涨32．1％。