Using AHP to measure the perception gap between current and potential users of bus services

Abstract

This study develops a multicriteria evaluation of user perception towards bus transit services and measures the gap in the perceptions held by current and potential users. A review of the transport quality literature indicates that both preference and satisfaction measures have been implemented to provide a comprehensive perception-based evaluation of bus quality. Although attempts have been made to evaluate user perception through a separate analysis of each (preference and/or satisfaction), the application of multicriteria quality measures are limited. A multicriteria quality measure not only offers more than just information on the daily experience of users but also knowledge of the internal process of quality evaluation (drivers/barriers). The multicriteria measure utilises the data of 512 questionnaires, whereby user perceptions were expressed through judgments of importance and satisfaction based on a set of 29 quality indicators classified into six attributes. Firstly, the study develops analytical hierarchy process (AHP) models to measure user preference. Secondly, a weighted perception index (WPI) of both preference and satisfaction is developed through a multicriteria model. Finally, multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is conducted to identify the level of variation in the perception of both current and potential users towards bus service quality. The results show that although both current and potential users place a higher importance towards the same indicators, they do not share the same pattern of preferences (values and/or order). In addition, the study found that the interaction between preferences and satisfaction generated new patterns of subjective evaluation, and that these patterns vary significantly by user category.     

Importance of user perception in evaluating level of service for bus transit for a developing country like India: a review

Assessment of service quality in bus transit planning has received due attention in recent years from the viewpoint of optimal service allocation. The concept of level of service (LOS) has emerged as an effective tool to measure quality of services. Service-quality assessment provides operators with knowledge on users' satisfaction with existing services and their expected LOSs. The importance of user perception towards assessment of LOS has been acknowledged by researchers. While LOS standards for public transportation have been established by the Transportation Research Board in the USA, researchers have questioned the applicability of these standards in the context of different geographic regions. Since the service delivery environment differs between developed and developing nations, the user perception of service quality varies between these economic regions. Substantial research has been carried out in the context of both developed and developing nations, to identify the bus transit service parameters that affect users' perceived service quality; however, little research exists that establishes LOS thresholds for bus transit, based on user perception. This paper reviews the concept of LOS, describes the importance of user perception in assessment of service quality and identifies the need to establish LOS thresholds for bus transit from user perception for developing countries.     

Towards modal choice decision-making models: A case study of Lagos state transport corporation bus riders

Identification of the socioeconomic factors which affect the demand for buses, and the analysis of the use of the other transport modes by bus users are the two main objectives of this article. Work and school trips are highlighted as being very important trip purposes in Lagos metropolis by the multiple discriminant analysis model. It identifies mode of transport, distance, travel time, reliability, and the number of stops as significant mode choice variables. Multiple linear regression models for work and school trips identify mode of transport, transfort fare, travel time, annual income, and crew behaviour as significant variables in the choice of transport mode. These findings support the two alternative hypotheses of the study that the choice of bus is related to the individual perception of the quality of service of the different modes and that socioeconomic characteristics of the riders influence the patronage of buses. The attention of policy makers for the 22 transport corporations that operate inter-and intra-urban services in all the 21 states and the federal capital of Abuja in Nigeria is drawn to the importance of these variables for decisions.     

Relationship between service quality and demand for inter-urban buses

This article proposes a model for analysing the modal choice of travellers making inter-urban journeys. Discrete choice models with systematic and random tastes variation were applied to find the most relevant variables for encouraging the use of public transport by bus rather than private car. This research follows on from the results of previous user satisfaction studies on inter-urban bus services in the province of Burgos (Spain). Willingness to pay is also estimated for time savings or other improvements in the bus service.The results indicate that, in general, improvements in the journey time or the number of daily journeys are valued less by inter-urban bus users than they are by car or railway users. The type of bus and its characteristics are evaluated as a function of the distance travelled and result in very small values for this variable. Contrary to what is often reported in satisfaction surveys, the journey cost is found to be relevant when choosing which mode of transport to use, but the most important variable is journey time. Little value is placed on the features of the bus, except on long distance journeys.Finally, a methodology differentiating four hierarchical groups is presented for comparing the results of the relevant variables in demand and satisfaction models. Some only improve perception rather than encourage new users, while others increase take-up but do not improve the image of the service.     

What influences satisfaction and loyalty in public transport? A review of the literature

Public transport ridership retention is a challenge for many cities. To develop comprehensive strategies aimed at retaining riders, it is necessary to understand the aspects of public transport that influence users to become loyal to the system. This paper analyses relevant literature regarding the causes of satisfaction and loyalty in public transport. We find that the service factors most associated with satisfaction are on-board cleanliness and comfort, courteous and helpful behaviour from operators, safety, as well as punctuality and frequency of service. On the other hand, loyalty is associated with users’ perceptions of value-for-money, on-board safety and cleanliness, interactions with personnel and the image and commitment to public transport that users feels. Furthermore, the results elucidate that the concept of loyalty is best defined based on users’ intentions to continue using the service, their willingness to recommend it to others, their overall satisfaction, but also and most importantly, their image of and involvement with public transport. Public transport users who have a positive image of the agency and consider public transport an integral component of city life are more likely to demonstrate loyalty and act like ambassadors for public transport agencies.     

Assessing systematic sources of variation in public transport elasticities: Some comparative warnings

There is an extensive and continually growing body of empirical evidence on the sensitivity of potential and actual users of public transport to fare and service levels. The sources of the evidence are disparate in terms of methods, data collection strategy, data paradigms, trip purpose, location, time period, and attribute definition. In this paper, we draw on a data set we have been compiling since 2003 that contains over 1100 elasticity items associated with prices and services of public transport, and car modes. The focus herein is on direct elasticities associated with public transport choice and demand, and the systematic sources of influence on the variations in the mean estimates for fares, in-vehicle time, and headway obtained from 319 studies. The major influences on variations in mean estimates of public transport elasticities are the time of day (peak, all day vs. off-peak), the data paradigm (especially combined SP/RP vs. revealed preference (RP)), whether an average fare or class of tickets is included, the unit of analysis (trips vs. vkm), specific trip purposes, country, and specific-mode (i.e., bus and train) in contrast to the generic class of public transport.     

Improving transportation service quality based on information fusion

How to improve transportation service quality and thus attract more passengers to use public transportation systems is an important concern for city governments around the world. In this study, we propose a novel information fusion model that addresses the dependent relationships among the various criteria for a method of non-additive weighted gap analysis aimed at evaluating and improving the service quality of transport systems. The hybrid model remedies prior shortcomings and should be more applicable to real-world situations. The proposed model is applied to a real case study of Taipei city bus companies to demonstrate its usefulness. The resulting analysis and the managerial applications for improving the bus service quality are also discussed with regards to the current policies of Taipei city.     

Structural equation modeling of user satisfaction of bus transit service quality based on stated preferences and latent variables

Few studies have been conducted on the service quality (SQ) of bus transit in developing countries. This paper presents a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to identifying the relationships among major attributes that affect the SQ of bus transit in the city of Dhaka in Bangladesh. Specifically, 22 bus transit SQ attributes, drawn from 655 questionnaires, are used to develop different SEM models for the city. Along with stated preferences, the effect of three latent variables on SQ is analyzed. Among the developed models, the best model is selected by using different statistical approaches. With the best model, selected attributes are rated according to their relative importance on SQ. Acknowledging limited resources of a developing nation, this study gives a clear way ahead to planners, operating companies and transport managers to design appropriate transport policies which will ensure more effective services to current bus users as well as attracting new passengers.     

User satisfaction with paratransit in competition with motorization in indonesia: anticipation of future implications

The rapid pace of motorization throughout the world has changed travel behavior, which in turn has influenced every aspect of transport operations. This impact has also increasingly challenged the future existence of such road-based urban public transport as paratransit due to its characteristics and problems, especially in developing countries. Since creating satisfied users can help retain paratransit’s existence, this research aims to explore user satisfaction with paratransit service in order to anticipate future implications for its competition with motorization in Bandung, Indonesia. It establishes important factors and attributes to explain user perceptions and priorities regarding the service. Its hypotheses explain how users measure paratransit’s quality of service, inferring that they are likely to continue to use it. Even though users are dissatisfied with several aspects of paratransit, and the impact of competition has been strong, loyal users can still be found. By considering the findings, existing problems of inappropriate-quality service can be addressed to satisfy users’ expectations. The study also suggests some anticipation of winning the competition with motorization.     

Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes

Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.     

The limits of analyzing service quality data in public transport

In recent years, management and academics have increasingly focused on quality management in public transport. In particular, many public transport operators regularly monitor their service quality over time and use these data to assess quality performance (e.g., for performance-based quality contracts) and to determine managerial decisions (e.g., budget allocations for service improvements). However, despite the widespread applications of service quality data in practice, it is unclear whether cross-sectional analyses and cross-temporal comparisons of service quality data provide valid insights for quality management purposes. In this study, we investigate the usability of cross-sectional analyses and cross-temporal comparisons of service quality data by conducting an empirical study that tracked a panel’s perceptions of the service quality of public transport and its choice over the course of three consecutive years. The results demonstrate that cross-sectional analyses provide valid insights for quality management. However, cross-temporal comparisons should be interpreted carefully because the results of these comparisons are surprisingly unreliable. In fact, we find that service quality data do not provide reliable results over time and therefore conclude that cross-temporal comparisons of service quality data must be interpreted with caution for quality management in public transport.     

Where Is My Bus? Impact of mobile real-time information on the perceived and actual wait time of transit riders

In order to attract more choice riders, transit service must not only have a high level of service in terms of frequency and travel time but also must be reliable. Although transit agencies continuously work to improve on-time performance, such efforts often come at a substantial cost. One inexpensive way to combat the perception of unreliability from the user perspective is real-time transit information. The OneBusAway transit traveler information system provides real-time next bus countdown information for riders of King County Metro via website, telephone, text-messaging, and smart phone applications. Although previous studies have looked at traveler response to real-time information, few have addressed real-time information via devices other than public display signs. For this study, researchers observed riders arriving at Seattle-area bus stops to measure their wait time while asking a series of questions, including how long they perceived that they had waited.The study found that for riders without real-time information, perceived wait time is greater than measured wait time. However, riders using real-time information do not perceive their wait time to be longer than their measured wait time. This is substantiated by the typical wait times that riders report. Real-time information users say that their average wait time is 7.5 min versus 9.9 min for those using traditional arrival information, a difference of about 30%. A model to predict the perceived wait time of bus riders was developed, with significant variables that include the measured wait time, an indicator variable for real-time information, an indicator variable for PM peak period, the bus frequency in buses per hour, and a self-reported typical aggravation level. The addition of real-time information decreases the perceived wait time by 0.7 min (about 13%).A critical finding of the study is that mobile real-time information reduces not only the perceived wait time, but also the actual wait time experienced by customers. Real-time information users in the study wait almost 2 min less than those arriving using traditional schedule information. Mobile real-time information has the ability to improve the experience of transit riders by making the information available to them before they reach the stop.     

Using the sustainable modified TAM and TPB to analyze the effects of perceived green value on loyalty to a public bike system

This article explores the effects of perceived green value, perceived green usefulness, perceived pleasure to use, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on green loyalty to a public bike system. The mediators between perceived green value and green loyalty and a moderator of general attitude toward protecting the natural environment are also discussed. The aim of this research was to understand how to establish green loyalty via the other dimensions based on the sustainable modified technology acceptance model (modified TAM), the theory of planned behavior (TPB), and a moderator. The findings reveal that perceived pleasure to use and subjective norms have the strongest power to influence loyalty for both users and non-users. The implications of this finding are that fun in people’s lives has a strong influence on sustainable continuous use of public bikes, and that subjective norms are more effective for non-users. In addition, environmental attitude has stronger moderating effects for non-users than for users on perceived green usefulness, perceived pleasure and subjective norms. Therefore, governmental policies should promote the attitude of protecting the natural environment, perceptions of pleasure, and subjective norms so as to increase green loyalty to public bike-sharing.     

Estimating the demand for urban bus travel

The disadvantages of conventional transportation study models, in particular their large data requirements and their weaknesses in dealing with changes in trip generation rates have led to a need for a simple model that can quickly and at low cost examine alternative public transport strategies.This paper investigates simple economic models of bus demand, examines alternative variables that can be used and discusses some alternative model forms. It demonstrates the results of a model using data from twelve urban bus operators in Britain and compares the results with those from other types of study. The model utilises fare and service quality elasticities to explain the decline in passengers on urban bus services, and derives an average elasticity with respect to fare changes of –0.31 and with respect to service quality changes of +0.62. It is estimated that fare rises accounted for 13% of the 43% decline in passengers over the last fifteen years, vehicle mileage reductions for 14.3% and that only 15.7% was due to such factors as rising car ownership which are often given as the cause of declining bus patronage.The results, by showing that passengers are far more sensitive to changes in service than they are to fare rises, are a useful guide to the broader public transport policy issues, and the paper concludes that the model does provide a useful method of forecasting public transport demand at a strategic level. Further work is needed, however, to establish more accurate forecasts for different types of passenger and studies are now being undertaken to establish these and to construct an operational forecasting model that can be applied with only limited data requirements     

Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability

Two distinguishable modelling approaches exist for modelling the attitudes of travellers to the unexpected day-to-day variability of travel times. The direct approach sees the extent of travel time variability (TTV) as the variable that travellers react to, whereas the indirect approach claims that TTV effects are fully explained by trip scheduling considerations. Past research has not yet overcome the issue of which of these concepts is preferable, especially for public transport users. In the current paper, factors affecting bus users’ scheduling behaviour and attitudes to TTV are investigated, based on a survey among bus users in the city of York, England. The survey methodology and its Internet-based design are described. The results confirm that the influence of TTV on bus users is best explained indirectly through scheduling considerations. The penalty placed on early arrival to the destination is found similar to the penalty on travel time itself; late arrivals are much more heavily penalised. Since the common treatment of TTV in practice is through models that ignore the effect of lateness and earliness, we also examine how using the simple approach rather than the correct one affects the economic interpretation of TTV; the results reveal a massive bias.     

公交服务质量评价研究

本文对评价公交服务质量的一些指标进行简单的探讨,选取了最有代表性的安全性、方便性、经济型、迅速性、准时性、舒适性6个方面12项指标进行研究。由于很难得到部分指标的确切数据,因此无法使用这些部分指标。本文中,采用经验概率作为其可靠性指标,简单直观的反映公交的服务能力。最后,简单介绍效能模型ADC并运用系统效能模型对西安二环2号线公交服务进行评价并给出相应的建议。     

Application of perceived value model to identify factors affecting passengers' repurchase intentions on city bus: A case of the Taipei metropolitan area

This paper establishes and tests the perceived value model, which is applied to identify the factors affecting the passengers' repurchase intentions on city bus. In this study, perceived value is a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived costs. And the main part of perceived benefits is service quality. We (1) measured service quality using a multiple-items scale, (2) integrated perceived non-monetary price as a part of perceived costs, and (3) simultaneously incorporated the attractiveness of alternative modes. Data was collected via a questionnaire survey in the Taipei metropolitan area and the model was tested using path analysis performed by LISREL. The results indicate that all causal relationships are statistical significant. Finally, this study concludes by discussing managerial implications and making suggestions for future research.     

Index numbers for monitoring transit service quality

The measurement of transit service quality is very important for guaranteeing a transport supply characterized by satisfactory service levels for the passengers. Even more important is the monitoring of the levels of service quality over time, which can be very useful to determine if the goals established by the transport planners are being met or exceeded. The status and evolution of transit service quality can be monitored through periodic and regular updating of the opinions expressed by the passengers about the service during the well-known Customer Satisfaction Surveys, allowing the effect of policies to be evaluated and specific interventions to be introduced. In this work, just the issue of monitoring service quality based on users’ opinions is approached, and the index numbers usually applied in the economic and industrial field are proposed for this purpose. Index numbers permit to study the fluctuations or variations of a variable or more variables over time, providing a powerful measurement for making comparisons and predictions of the analyzed concept. The index numbers were calculated on the basis of data collected from Customer Satisfaction Surveys addressed to the passengers of the metropolitan public service of Granada (Spain). The analyzed time period has been established from 2007 to 2013. Interesting results derive from the calculation of the index numbers. Since both perceptions and importance rates are considered in this methodology, the results can inform, not only on the satisfaction tendencies but also on the trend on customers’ priorities, which is actually the expected quality. Therefore, policies could more efficiently be designed to adjust the service to the users’ real needs.     

Impacts of a multimodal mobility service on travel behavior and preferences: user insights from Munich’s first Mobility Station

The City of Munich, in cooperation with the local public transport provider MVG, is testing a pilot project of a “Mobility Station”, which is a multimodal mobility hub connecting public transport (PT) and new shared mobility services. The project’s goal is to provide sustainable mobility options that allow citizens to be mobile without owning a car. To evaluate the acceptance of the Mobility Station, as well as short and long term effects on mobility behavior, we developed an online user survey in close cooperation with the stakeholders and experts in the field of shared mobility. The results provide insights on the awareness and perception of the Mobility Station among users, their mobility patterns, current degree of multimodality, as well as actual and potential changes on mobility behavior and travel preferences due to the multimodal mobility service. Most users are young, male, and highly educated individuals with access to multiple mobility options. PT plays a central role for daily mobility together with the services they were identified to be customers of. The high share of users that use different mobility services at least once a month indicates some degree of multimodality. Actual and potential changes in mobility behavior towards multimodality were revealed. Some users declared to use other mobility services more often. They appreciate the availability of different mobility options and show interest in other services and intermodal connections indicating that there is still potential to increase multimodal behavior.