Impacts of rail transit access on land and housing values in China: a quantitative synthesis

ABSTRACT

Rail transit investment has been viewed as a prominent policy instrument for local and regional development. However, little is known about to what extent the theorised changes in land and housing values arising from rail transit access can be substantiated by evidence in a large developing country context. This paper presents a quantitative review of empirical studies that analysed the impacts of rail transit access on land and housing values in China. We review empirical analyses in 67 studies from 1997 to 2018 for which we encode quantitative results along with a range of theoretically combinations of spatially contextual characteristics, data and methodological-design characteristics. The results show that there are significant variations in the size estimates of effects of rail transit access across studies. Such variations are associated with rail project types, data and methodological designs. Our study provides the insights on what has already been known and what needs to be known on evaluating real estate consequences of rail transit improvements in developing countries.     

The theory of second best in urban mass transit: Management in the public sector as a proforma exercise

This paper focuses on four issues. The first is the case of one-sided investments in mass transit in metropolitan areas of developing countries. It is pointed out that in many cases in which the conditions for optimum investment policies (Pareto's Optimum) are not maintained, excessive investments on mass transit, including large annual operating subsidies, usually lead to substantial sub-optimizations and waste of scarce financial resources. This problem is then reviewed under the light of the “Theory of Second Best” as articulated for all investment options within Welfare Economic Theory. The second issue examined is the matter of recently discovered important diseconomies of scale of large metro transit systems in developing and developed countries, and the need to retain production of transport services within small-scale production units that are well coordinated and controlled. The third issue discussed is the problem of mismanagement of most public sector transit companies and agencies. The notion that most such systems are simply administered, not managed, is being brought up and the requirements for proper management are amplified. Finally, the case of public vs. private ownership of mass transit is being discussed with a distinction between public policies of providing mass transit services and the actual production process of these services. Provision of services represents a public responsibility that belongs to the public sector. However, production of service is a techno-economic process that requires different talents and circumstances. The paper concludes with a strong suggestion for major reorientation of urban mass transit in the metro areas of developing countries towards more efficiency and higher productivity.     

Neighborhoods,cars, and commuting in New York City: A discrete choice approach

Cities around the world are trying out a multitude of transportation policy and investment alternatives with the aim of reducing car-induced externalities. However, without a solid understanding of how people make their transportation and residential location choices, it is hard to tell which of these policies and investments are really doing the job and which are wasting precious city resources. The focus of this paper is the determinants of car ownership and car use for commuting. Using survey data from 1997 to 1998 collected in New York City, this paper uses discrete choice econometrics to estimate a model of the choices of car ownership and commute mode while also modeling the related choice of residential location.The main story told by this analysis is that New Yorkers are more sensitive to changes in travel time than they are to changes in travel cost. The model predicts that the most effective ways to reduce both auto ownership and car commuting involve changing the relative travel times for cars and transit, making transit trips faster by increasing both the frequency and the speed of service and making auto trips slower – perhaps simply by allowing traffic congestion. Population density also appears to have a substantial effect on car ownership in New York.     

Modeling the commute mode share of transit using continuous accessibility to jobs

This paper presents the results of an accessibility-based model of aggregate commute mode share, focusing on the share of transit relative to auto. It demonstrates the use of continuous accessibility – calculated continuously in time, rather than at a single of a few departure times – for the evaluation of transit systems. These accessibility calculations are accomplished using only publicly-available data sources. A binomial logic model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a commuter will choose transit rather than auto for a commute trip based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as detailed accessibility calculations for both transit and auto. The mode achieves a ρ² value of 0.597, and analysis of the results suggests that continuous accessibility of transit systems may be a valuable tool for use in modeling and forecasting.     

Incentives in Bus Concession Contracts: A Review of Several Experiences in Latin America

Abstract

This paper reviews the incentive structure of concession contracts in several Latin American transit reforms. It also presents a conceptual analysis of the optimal design of concession contracts. The conceptual discussion and case studies reviewed indicate that payment to operators should be linked to operational variables and that some demand risk should optimally be transferred to operators. Performance standards linked to fines and penalties are not sufficient to guarantee good quality of service, particularly in citywide reforms and where institutional capacity ― in terms of size, experience and expertise of staff ― is lacking and regulatory processes are slow, bureaucratic and cumbersome. This review may be useful for policy-makers designing transit reforms in other countries. The policy lessons of the paper are particularly relevant to cities in the developing world but they are also important for reforms in other countries.     

城市轨道交通企业多元化发展对比研究

城市轨道交通投资周期长、成本高、收益见效慢,许多轨道交通企业负债累累,但随着城市轨道交通在我国的高速发展,越来越多的轨道交通企业开启多元化经营进而实现多元化发展。本文列举了四个我国典型大都市的轨道交通多元化发展情况,结合政府颁布的土地政策,可以看出轨道交通多元化发展的重要性,以及政府将土地交由轨道交通企业自行开发、使用,政府在其中主要充当监管者的角色。这样有助于实现其多元化经营,进而带动多元化发展与城市可持续发展。     

Ridership estimation procedure for a transit corridor with new bus rapid transit service

Ridership estimation is a critical step in the planning of a new transit route or change in service. Very often, when a new transit route is introduced, the existing routes will be modified, vehicle capacities changed, or service headways adjusted. This has made ridership forecasts for the new, existing, and modified routes challenging. This paper proposes and demonstrates a procedure that forecasts the ridership of all transit routes along a corridor when a new bus rapid transit (BRT) service is introduced and existing regular bus services are adjusted. The procedure uses demographic data along the corridor, a recent origin–destination survey data, and new and existing transit service features as inputs. It consists of two stages of transit assignment. In the first stage, a transit assignment is performed with the existing transit demand on the proposed BRT and existing bus routes, so that adjustments to the existing bus services can be identified. This transit assignment is performed iteratively until there is no adjustment in transit services. In the second stage, the transit assignment is carried out with the new BRT and adjusted regular bus services, but incorporates a potential growth in ridership because of the new BRT service. The final outputs of the procedure are ridership for all routes and route segments, boarding and alighting volumes at all stops, and a stop‐by‐stop trip matrix. The proposed ridership estimation procedure is applicable to a new BRT route with and without competing regular bus routes and with BRT vehicles traveling in dedicated lanes or in mixed traffic. The application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated via a case study along the Alameda Corridor in El Paso, Texas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of federal transit subsidy policy on investment decisions: The case of San Francisco's Geary Corridor

In the United States, federal funding for public transit often accounts for a large proportion of a local agency's budget, especially for capital investments. For this reason, local governments can be expected to plan a portfolio of projects that maximize federal contributions. This study examines the financial effects of federal transit subsidy policy on local transit investment decisions. Data from a System Planning Study for the Geary Corridor in San Francisco are used as an illustration. It is found that federal transit subsidy policy provides financial incentives for local decision-makers to select capital-intensive investment options that may not be efficient or effective. While federal financial incentives are not the only factor influencing local investment decisions, some reform of the current subsidy policy may be necessary to reduce the incentive for ineffective use of public resources.     

The impact of urban rail transit on commercial property value: New evidence from Wuhan,China

The interaction between rail transit and the urban property market is a vital foundation for planning transit-based policy such as Value Capture and Transit Oriented Development (TOD). Yet only few studies have reported the impact of transit access on commercial property value. This paper presents empirical evidence from Wuhan, China, to enrich the knowledge in the subject area. Spatial autoregressive models were employed to estimate the commercial value capture, based on 676 observations along Wuhan’s metro rail line through the main business districts. Value appreciation was discovered within the 400 m radius of road network distance from Metro stations. The transit access premiums present as two tiers: 16.7% for the 0–100 m core area and approximately 8.0% within the 100–400 m radius. The result demonstrates the potential benefit of adopting value capture and optimising TOD planning to support sustainable urban rail transit investment. Amid rapid urbanisation in China, the evidence reported here could help better inform cities, across the developing world and beyond, of the benefits of adopting rail transit-based policy.     

A causal analysis of car ownership and transit use

The causal structure underlying household mobility is examined in this study using a sample obtained from the Dutch National Mobility Panel survey. The results indicate that car ownership is strongly associated with mode use, but that it has no influence on weekly person trip generation by household members. Characteristics of mode use are examined through a causal analysis of changes in car ownership, number of drivers, number of car trips, and number of transit trips. It is shown that observed changes in mode use cannot be adequately explained by assuming that a change in transit use influences car use. The finding suggests that the increase in car use, which is a consequence of increasing car ownership, may not be suppressed by improving public transit.     

Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city

As Chinese cities continue to grow rapidly and their newly developed suburbs continue to accommodate most of the enormous population increase, rail transit is seen as the key to counter automobile dependence. This paper examines the effects of rail transit-supported urban expansion using travel survey data collected from residents in four Shanghai suburban neighborhoods, including three located near metro stations. Estimated binary logit model of car ownership and nested logit model of commuting mode choice reveal that: (1) proximity to metro stations has a significant positive association with the choice of rail transit as primary commuting mode, but its association with car ownership is insignificant; (2) income, job status, and transportation subsidy are all positively associated with the probabilities of owning car and driving it to work; (3) higher population density in work location relates positively to the likelihood of commuting by the metro, but does not show a significant relationship with car ownership; (4) longer commuting distance is strongly associated with higher probabilities of riding the metro, rather than driving, to work; (5) considerations of money, time, comfort, and safety appear to exert measurable influences on car ownership and mode choice in the expected directions, and the intention to ride the metro for commuting is reflected in its actual use as primary mode for journey to work. These results strongly suggest that rail transit-supported urban expansion can produce important positive outcomes, and that this strategic approach can be effectively facilitated by transportation policies and land use plans, as well as complemented by timely provision of high quality rail transit service to suburban residents.     

Modeling transit technology selection in a linear transportation corridor

This paper proposes an analytical model for investigating transit technology selection problem from a perspective of transit authority. Given a transit technology alternative (e.g., metro, light rail transit, or bus rapid transit), the proposed model aims to maximize the social welfare of the transit system by determining the optimal combination of transit line length, number of stations, station location (or spacing), headway, and fare. In the proposed model, the effects of passenger demand elasticity and capacity constraint are explicitly considered. The properties of the model are examined analytically, and a heuristic solution procedure for determining the model solution is presented. By comparing the optimized social welfare for different transit technology alternatives, the optimal transit technology solution can be obtained together with critical population density. On the basis of a simple population growth rate formula, optimal investment timing of a new transit technology can be estimated. The proposed methodology is illustrated in several Chinese cities. Insightful findings are reported on the interrelation among transit technology selection, population density, transit investment cost, and transit line parameter design as well as the comparison between social welfare maximization and profit maximization regimes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A procedure for estimating transit subsidization requirements for developing countries

The paper presents a procedure that has been developed for estimating subsidization requirements for urban transit services in developing countries. The procedure is based on a subsidization policy of reducing transport expenditure burden on the average commuter, by maintaining his transport expenditure-income ratio at a reasonable level. It is designed for both regulated and deregulated transport markets. It requires, as input, historical data (previous year) on fare, productivity, and load factor for the transport service or mode concerned, the transport expenditure-income ratio distribution of the commuters, and the current level of commuter personal transport allowance. It is based on the premise that transport expenditure-income ratio is inversely related to income. The subsidization formula developed in the paper yields a level of subsidy that is commensurate with the level of control a government is able to exercise over transit operations.     

The effect of slow zones on ridership: An analysis of the Chicago Transit Authority “El” Blue Line

Transit agencies frequently upgrade rail tracks to bring the system to a state of good repair (SGR) and to improve the speed and reliability of urban rail transit service. For safety during construction, agencies establish slow zones in which trains must reduce speed. Slow zones create delays and schedule disruptions that result in customer dissatisfaction and discontinued use of transit, either temporarily or permanently. While transit agencies are understandably concerned about the possible negative effects of slow zones, empirical research has not specifically examined the relationship between slow zones and ridership. This paper partially fills that gap. Using data collected from the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) Customer Experience Survey, CTA Slow Zone Maps, and, the Automatic Fare Collection System (AFC), it examines whether recurring service delays due to slow zones affect transit rider behavior and if the transit loyalty programs, such as smart card systems, increase or decrease rider defections. Findings suggest that slow zones increase headway deviation which reduces ridership. Smart card customers are more sensitive to slow zones as they are more likely to stop using transit as a result of delay. The findings of this paper have two major policy implications for transit agencies: (1) loyalty card users, often the most reliable source of revenue, are most at risk for defection during construction and (2) it is critical to minimize construction disruptions and delays in the long run by maintaining state of good repair. The results of this paper can likely be used as the basis for supporting immediate funding requests to bring the system to an acceptable state of good repair as well as stimulating ideas about funding reform for transit.     

Flexing service schedules: Assessing the potential for demand-adaptive hybrid transit via a stated preference approach

This paper assesses the demand for a flexible, demand-adaptive transit service, using the Chicago region as an example. We designed and implemented a stated-preference survey in order to (1) identify potential users of flexible transit, and (2) inform the service design of the flexible transit mode. Multinomial logit, mixed-logit, and panel mixed-logit choice models were estimated using the data obtained from the survey. The survey instrument employed a d_p-efficient design and the Google Maps API to capture precise origins and destinations in order to create realistic choice scenarios. The stated-preference experiments offered respondents a choice between traditional transit, car, and a hypothetical flexible transit mode. Wait time, access time, travel time, service frequency, cost, and number of transfers varied across the choice scenarios. The choice model results indicate mode-specific values of in-vehicle travel time ranging between $16.3 per hour (car) and $21.1 per hour (flexible transit). The estimated value of walking time to transit is $25.9 per hour. The estimated value of waiting time at one’s point of origin for a flexible transit vehicle is $11.3 per hour; this value is significantly lower than the disutility typically associated with waiting at a transit stop/station indicating that the ‘at-home’ pick-up option of flexible transit is a highly desirable feature. The choice model results also indicate that respondents who use active-transport modes or public transit for their current commute trip, or are bikeshare members, were significantly more likely to choose flexible and traditional transit than car commuters in the choice experiments. The implications of these and other relevant model results for the design and delivery of flexible, technology-enabled services are discussed.     

Household-level commuting mode choices,car allocation and car ownership level choices of two-worker households: the case of the city of Toronto

The paper presents a comprehensive investigation on household level commuting mode, car allocation and car ownership level choices of two-worker households in the City of Toronto. A joint econometric model and a household travel survey dataset are used for empirical investigations. Empirical models reveal that significant substitution patterns exist between auto driving and all other mode choices in two-worker households. It is revealed that, female commuters do not prefer auto driving, but in case of a one car (and two commuters with driving licenses) household, a female commuter gets more preference for auto driving option than the male commuter. Reverse commuting (commuting in opposite direction of home to central business district) plays a critical role on household level car allocation choices and in defining the stability of commuting behaviour of two-worker households. Two worker households in higher income zones and with longer commuting distances tend to have higher car ownership levels than others. However, higher transit accessibility to jobs reduces household car ownership levels. The study reveals that both increasing two worker households and reverse commuting would increase dependency on private car for commuting.     

A test of inter-modal performance measures for transit investment decisions

Choices among alternative transit capital investments are often complex and politically controversial. There is renewed interest in the use of performance indicators to assist in making rational and defensible choices for the investment of public funds. To improve the evaluation of rail and bus performance and provide more useful information for transit investment decision-makers, it is important to use performance indicators that fairly and efficiently compare different transit modes. This paper proposes a set of inter-modal performance indicators in which service input, service output, and service consumption are measured by total cost, revenue capacity miles/hours, and unlinked passenger trips/miles respectively based on economic principles and evaluation objectives. The proposed improvements involve the inclusion of capital as well as operating costs in such comparisons, and the recognition of the widely varying capacities of transit vehicles for seated and standing passengers. Two California cases, the Los Angeles – Long Beach Corridor and the Market/Judah Corridor in San Francisco, are used for testing their usefulness in the evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of rail and bus services. The results show substantial differences between performance indicators in current use and those proposed in this study. The enhanced inter-modal performance indicators are more appropriate for comparing the efficiency and effectiveness of different modes or a combination of transit modes at the corridor and system levels where most major investment decisions are made. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Structural equation modeling of user satisfaction of bus transit service quality based on stated preferences and latent variables

Few studies have been conducted on the service quality (SQ) of bus transit in developing countries. This paper presents a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to identifying the relationships among major attributes that affect the SQ of bus transit in the city of Dhaka in Bangladesh. Specifically, 22 bus transit SQ attributes, drawn from 655 questionnaires, are used to develop different SEM models for the city. Along with stated preferences, the effect of three latent variables on SQ is analyzed. Among the developed models, the best model is selected by using different statistical approaches. With the best model, selected attributes are rated according to their relative importance on SQ. Acknowledging limited resources of a developing nation, this study gives a clear way ahead to planners, operating companies and transport managers to design appropriate transport policies which will ensure more effective services to current bus users as well as attracting new passengers.     

Policy Simulation for New BRT and Area Pricing Alternatives Using an Opinion Survey in Jakarta

Abstract

An area pricing scheme for Jakarta, Indonesia, is currently under review as a transportation control measure along with the operation of new bus rapid transit (BRT) system. While this scheme may be effective for congestion reduction in the central business district (CBD), provision of alternative means of transportation for auto users that are ‘pushed-out’ is of great importance to obtain public acceptance. Hence, it is necessary to simulate simultaneously the area pricing scheme and the BRT development which may serve as an alternative for assumed ‘pushed-out’ auto users. Utilizing data from an opinion survey, this paper studies how BRT and auto ridership are likely to vary as a function of traveler and system attributes. Additionally, the study attempts to evaluate the way this new travel mode is distinguished from other existing conventional transportation alternatives in Jakarta. The survey data contains socioeconomic information of over 1000 respondents as well as details of to-work/school trips to the CBD including mode, travel cost, time, etc. Respondents were asked about their willingness to shift from their current mode to BRT to make the same travel for different BRT fare levels. Modeling efforts suggest that a mixed logit model performs better in explaining choice behavior. Therefore, this model was used for policy simulation. The simulation results brought about many implications as to the tested policies. While the developed models may be applied only to future BRT corridors in which the survey was conducted, they capture the key variables that are significant in explaining mode choice behavior and present great potential for practical use in policy simulation and analysis in a large metropolitan area of the developing world.