Vehicle value of travel time savings: Evidence from a group-based modelling approach

The value of travel time savings (VTTS) accounts for a majority of the total user benefits in economic appraisal of transport investments. This means that having an accurate estimate of VTTS for different segments of travel continues to retain currency, despite there being a rich literature on estimates of VTTS for different travel modes, travel purposes, income groups, life cycles, and distance bands. In contrast, there is a dearth of research and evidence on vehicle VTTS, although joint travel by car is an important segment of travel. This paper fills this gap by developing a group-based modelling approach to quantify the vehicle VTTS and compares this with the VTTS for a driver with and without a passenger. An online survey was conducted in Sydney in 2014 and the data used to obtain a number of new empirical estimates of vehicle and driver VTTS. The new evidence questions the validity of various assumptions adopted in current practice for valuing the time savings of car passengers and multiple occupant cars.     

REVIEW PAPER

Abstract

Car sharing, which can be defined as sharing vehicle services amongst members, thereby giving them access to a fleet of vehicles, is important in promoting the use of sustainable modes of transport. Although the car‐sharing market in Germany has grown considerably in recent years, customer take‐up is still relatively low. Only 0.16% of driving licence holders in Germany have joined a car‐sharing organization. As a result, the central objective of this paper is to assess ways of promoting car‐sharing services further. Therefore, it begins with an investigation into the current situation in Germany, for which a survey addressing all German car‐sharing organizations was conducted. Additionally, a household survey was conducted to evaluate the demand for car sharing. Finally, research into the development of car sharing in other countries was undertaken via the Internet and a brief survey to car‐sharing organizations in some of those countries. Recommendations for the further development of car sharing are given based on the findings from each of these studies.     

Including heavy vehicles in a car‐following model: modelling,calibrating and validating

Heavy vehicles influence general traffic in many different ways compared with passenger vehicles, and this may result in different levels of traffic instability. Increases in the number and proportion of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream will therefore result in different traffic flow conditions. This research initially outlines the different car‐following behaviour of drivers in congested heterogeneous traffic conditions indicating the necessity for developing a car‐following model, which includes these differences. A psychophysical car‐following model, similar in form to Weideman's car‐following model, was developed. Due to the complexity of the developed model, the calibration of the model was undertaken using a particle swarm optimisation algorithm with the data recorded under congested traffic conditions. This was then incorporated into a traffic microsimulation model. The results showed that the car‐following perceptual thresholds and thus action points of drivers differ based on their vehicle and the lead vehicle types. The inclusion of the heavy vehicles in the model showed significant impacts on the traffic dynamic and interactions amongst different vehicles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The meaning of car availability in mode choice decisions

The paper examines various definitions of car availability that have been used in the literature, and compares the results when applied to a common data set. It argues that car availability means different things to different people depending on their licence holding/car owning status. Using in‐depth interview data, the factors determining car allocation and transferability within a household, and subsequently mode choice, are discussed. An attempt is made to draw some general conclusions for research and modelling. This suggests that different approaches are required depending on whether or not there is competition for use of the car within a household. Also that in cases of competition, mode choice is not a two‐stage process depending on car availability and trip characteristics, but a concurrent decision based on both of these factors.     

Inviting travelers to the smorgasbord of sustainable urban transport: evidence from a MaaS field trial

A Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) concept, UbiGo, was implemented in Gothenburg, Sweden, and used for a 6-month period by 195 individuals in 83 households. Four participant subgroups were identified: Car shedders, Car accessors, Simplifiers, and Economizers. A qualitative analysis revealed that the subgroups had different reasons to join the service and different expectations of the change that would occur on the basis of the altered preconditions offered by the service. Previous car users reduced their use of private car and increased their use of public transport and active modes. Participants who did not have access to a privately-owned car but thought they needed one discovered that they managed well without. Other participants were reinforced in their existing behaviors but in ways they did not envisage, depending on which goals they had at the outset of the trial. Overall, the participants were also satisfied with the service, as well as with stated changes and non-changes, even if this in some cases meant more planning. Based on the empirical findings it could be argued that a service approach, such as UbiGo, has the potential to reduce the need for private car ownership, and enable people to change their mode choices and travel patterns. The potential relies however on a number of specific features of the service of which flexibility and a need- rather than a mode-based approach are key features.     

Solving the station-based one-way carsharing network planning problem with relocations and non-linear demand

One-way station-based carsharing systems allow users to return a rented car to any designated station, which could be different from the origin station. Existing research has been mainly focused on the vehicle relocation problem to deal with the travel demand fluctuation over time and demand imbalance in space. However, the strategic planning of the stations’ location and their capacity for one-way carsharing systems has not been well studied yet, especially when considering vehicle relocations simultaneously. This paper presents a Mixed-integer Non-linear Programming (MINLP) model to solve the carsharing station location and capacity problem with vehicle relocations. This entails considering several important components which are for the first time integrated in the same model. Firstly, relocation operations and corresponding relocation costs are taken into consideration to address the imbalance between trip requests and vehicle availability. Secondly, the flexible travel demand at various time steps is taken as the input to the model avoiding deterministic requests. Thirdly, a logit model is constructed to represent the non-linear demand rate by using the ratio of carsharing utility and private car utility. To solve the MINLP model, a customized gradient algorithm is proposed. The application to the SIP network in Suzhou, China, demonstrates that the algorithm can solve a real world large scale problem in reasonable time. The results identify the pricing and parking space rental costs as the key factors influencing the profitability of carsharing operators. Also, the carsharing station location and fleet size impact the vehicle relocation and carsharing patronage.     

Incentivized vehicle relocation in vehicle sharing systems

The asymmetric demand-offer problem represents a major challenge for one-way vehicle sharing systems (VSS) affecting their economic viability as it necessitates the engagement of considerable human (and financial) resources in relocating vehicles to satisfy customer demand. In this paper, we propose a novel approach which involves user-based vehicle relocations to address supply-and-demand mismatches; in our approach, VSS users are offered price incentives so as to accept picking up their vehicle from an oversupplied station and/or to drop it off to an under-supplied station. The system incentivizes users based on the priorities of vehicle relocations among stations, taking into account the fluctuating demand for vehicles and parking places at different stations over time. A graph-theoretic approach is employed for modeling the problem of allocating vehicles to users in a way that maximizes the profit of the system taking into account the budget the VSS can afford to spend for rewarding users, as well as the users’ strategic behavior. We present two different schemes for incentivizing users to act in favour of the system. Both schemes consider budget constraints and are truthful and budget-feasible. We have extensively evaluated our approach through simulations which demonstrated significant gain with respect to the number of completed trips and system revenue. We have also validated our approach through pilot trials conducted in a free-floating e-motorbike sharing system in the framework of an EU-funded research project.     

International private and public reinforcing dependencies for the innovation of automotive emission control systems in Japan and USA

In the beginning of the 1970s, the economies of USA and Japan were growing fast and environmental pollution was increasing to alarming levels. As passenger car emissions were found to be significant and rapidly increasing, their reduction was specially targeted. Following a bill passed by US Congress in 1968, requirements were set in 1970 for the vehicle manufacturers to reduce the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC) with 90% by 1975, and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) with 90% by 1976. These requirements were soon adapted to the Japanese regulatory framework, and were known in both countries as the “Muskie Act” or “Muskie Law” after the senator who developed the original bill.The new requirements spurred tremendous research and development efforts. Car manufacturers and research institutions in USA, Japan and Europe investigated and developed alternative solutions, including gas turbine and steam engine vehicles. California, the USA state with the most severe air quality problems and the only state at the time allowed to establish more strict requirements than federal regulation, established requirements implying the use of oxidation catalysts in 1975 and three-way catalysts (TWC’s) in 1977. Japan as a nation adopted similar requirements 1976 and 1978. Export of cars from Japan to USA increased rapidly. The rest of USA adopted emission standards similar to California’s only in 1981, timing USA vehicle sales rebound after the energy crisis and grave economic downturn. Strict requirements were thus established only after more than a decade of civic and legal processes between federal authorities, the car manufacturers and NGO’s.The history of vehicle development is one of cooperation and competition. This paper argues that the international cooperation on different levels of society (government, industry and science) together with commercial competition between the two countries was strong, continuous and instrumental in enabling the development of technology, appropriate regulation and infrastructural changes and thus created a market for cleaner cars and effectively reduced emissions from the growing vehicle fleet. In other words, the introduction of TWCs was reinforced by the simultaneous development of mitigating technology in two car producing countries competing for market space.     

The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal

We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists’ value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.     

Effect of road width and traffic volume on vehicular interactions in heterogeneous traffic

Highway traffic flow phenomena involve several complex and stochastic variables with high interdependencies. The variations in roadway, traffic and environmental factors influence the traffic flow quality significantly. Capacity analysis of road sections under different traffic and geometric conditions need to quantify the vehicles of widely varying characteristics to a common and universally acceptable unit. Passenger car unit (PCU) is the universally adopted unit of traffic volume, keeping the passenger car as the ‘standard vehicle’ with reference to its static and dynamic characteristics; other vehicles are expressed to its equivalent number in terms of PCUs. The studies carried out in this aspect represent the dynamic nature of impedance caused by a vehicle while moving through a traffic stream. The PCU values recommended by the Highway Capacity Manual are widely applied in many countries; however, their applicability is highly under debate because of the variations in prevailing local traffic conditions. There are several factors that influence the PCU values such as traffic, roadway, vehicle, environmental and control conditions, etc. Apart from vehicular characteristics, the other two major factors that influence the PCU of vehicles are the following: (i) road width and (ii) traffic volume. In this study, estimation of PCU values for the different types of vehicles of a highly heterogeneous traffic on 7.5‐ and 11.0‐m‐wide roads, using micro‐simulation technique, has been dealt with. It has been found that the PCU value of a vehicle type varies significantly with variation in road width and traffic volume. The results of the study indicate that the PCU values are significantly influenced by the said two factors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Substitution of bus for car travel in urban Britain: an economic evaluation of bus and car exhaust emission and other costs

Car exhaust emissions cause serious air pollution problems in many regions and, at a global level, contribute to climate change. Car use is also an important factor in other problems including traffic congestion, road accidents, noise pollution, community severance, and loss of countryside from road building. Forecasts of further increases in car ownership and use have prompted calls for policy-makers to encourage car users to switch to other forms of transport, particularly the bus. The effects of substituting bus for car travel in urban areas are simulated by specifying a spreadsheet model incorporating two types of car (petrol and diesel engine) and three types of bus (mini-, midi- and large bus). Six types of exhaust emission are considered for each vehicle type for the years 1992, 1995 and 1999: carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, (small) particulate matter and carbon dioxide. The paper provides a synthesis of monetary estimates of these exhaust emission and other costs. The other costs considered are traffic congestion, fuel consumption, noise pollution, road accidents and road damage. The exhaust emission monetary cost estimates, mainly from the United States and the United Kingdom, are discussed within the context of a sensitivity analysis which allows for changes in parameters such as load factors, emission factors and the individual exhaust emission cost estimates. The simulation results show that substitution of bus for car travel generally decreases the overall costs, particularly the costs of congestion, but increases exhaust emission costs if bus load factors are insufficiently high. In order to reduce exhaust emission costs from car to bus transfer at given load factors, the most effective policy option is to encourage the reduction of particulate emissions from bus engines. In terms of the overall costs, increasing bus load factors by relatively modest amounts can lead to substantial reductions in these overall costs. These results should be regarded as illustrative rather than definitive, given the uncertainties in a number of parameter estimates and the need for further research in areas not covered by the paper.     

Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes,feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK

The transition to a low carbon transport world requires a host of demand and supply policies to be developed and deployed. Pricing and taxation of vehicle ownership plays a major role, as it affects purchasing behavior, overall ownership and use of vehicles. There is a lack in robust assessments of the life cycle energy and environmental effects of a number of key car pricing and taxation instruments, including graded purchase taxes, vehicle excise duties and vehicle scrappage incentives. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring which type of vehicle taxation accelerates fuel, technology and purchasing behavioral transitions the fastest with (i) most tailpipe and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings, (ii) potential revenue neutrality for the Treasury and (iii) no adverse effects on car ownership and use.The UK Transport Carbon Model was developed further and used to assess long term scenarios of low carbon fiscal policies and their effects on transport demand, vehicle stock evolution, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. The modeling results suggest that policy choice, design and timing can play crucial roles in meeting multiple policy goals. Both CO₂ grading and tightening of CO₂ limits over time are crucial in achieving the transition to low carbon mobility. Of the policy scenarios investigated here the more ambitious and complex car purchase tax and feebate policies are most effective in accelerating low carbon technology uptake, reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and, if designed carefully, can avoid overburdening consumers with ever more taxation whilst ensuring revenue neutrality. Highly graduated road taxes (or VED) can also be successful in reducing emissions; but while they can provide handy revenue streams to governments that could be recycled in accompanying low carbon measures they are likely to face opposition by the driving population and car lobby groups. Scrappage schemes are found to save little carbon and may even increase emissions on a life cycle basis.The main policy implication of this work is that in order to reduce both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from transport governments should focus on designing incentive schemes with strong up-front price signals that reward ‘low carbon’ and penalize ‘high carbon’. Policy instruments should also be subject to early scrutiny of the longer term impacts on government revenue and pay attention to the need for flanking policies to boost these revenues and maintain the marginal cost of driving.     

Pooling for the journey to work: The outlook in Great Britain

Pooling, or ride-sharing, is a term coined in the United States (U.S.) to describe various forms of collective travel organised for, and often by, specific groups of commuters with similar travel requirements. Its different forms include bus pooling (financially self-supporting works bus or commuter coach services), minibus pooling (van pooling in U.S. terminology) and car pooling. It has been claimed that these forms of collective travel offer a more personalised service than conventional stage carriage buses, and therefore have a greater chance of attracting solo car drivers and increasing vehicle occupancies. This, in turn, can lead to lower fuel consumption and reduced traffic congestion at peak times. Following the advent of oil shortages in the winter of 1973/74, considerable efforts were made in the U.S. to promote pooling initiatives. This gave rise to the publication of a substantial volume of literature that sometimes indicated significant resource-saving achievements. This paper considers the potential for bus, minibus and car pooling in Great Britain, drawing both on relevant theoretical and economic studies, and on practical operational experience. It concludes that under reasonable assumptions about the transport situation in the next decade or so, pooling could become increasingly useful for solving the travel problems of individual local groups, but that it is unlikely to become a major mode in terms of the numbers of trips carried. The effects of recent legislative changes are discussed, and the justification for further change assessed. Relevant comparisons are made with the U.S.Crown Copyright 1983. Extracts from the text may be reproduced, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged.     

A framework for estimating traffic emissions: The development of Passenger Car Emission Unit

In this study, we develop a Passenger Car Emission Unit (PCEU) framework for estimating traffic emissions. The idea is analogous to the use of Passenger Car Unit (PCU) for modeling the congestion effect of different vehicle types. In this approach, we integrate emission modeling and cost evaluation. Different emissions, typically speed-dependent, are integrated as an overall cost via their corresponding external costs. We then develop a normalization procedure to obtain a general trend that is applicable for all vehicle types, which is used to derive a standard cost curve. Different vehicle types with different emission standards are then mapped to this standard cost curve through their corresponding PCEUs that are to be calibrated. Once the standard cost curve and PCEUs have been calibrated, to estimate the overall cost of emission for a particular vehicle, we only need to multiply the corresponding PCEU of that vehicle type to the standard cost curve. We apply this PCEU approach to Hong Kong and obtain promising results. Compared with the results obtained by the full-blown emission model COPERT, the approach achieves high accuracy but obviates tedious inputs typically required for emission estimation.     

Comparison of car ownership models

Car ownership models found in the academic literature (with a focus on the recent literature and on models developed for transport planning) are classified into a number of model types. The different model types are compared on a number of criteria: inclusion of demand and supply side of the car market, level of aggregation, dynamic or static model, long‐ or short‐run forecasts, theoretical background, inclusion of car use, data requirements, treatment of business cars, car‐type segmentation, inclusion of income, of fixed and/or variable car cost, of car quality aspects, of licence holding, of sociodemographic variables and of attitudinal variables, and treatment of scrappage.     

Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions

This study develops a car‐following model in which heavy vehicle behaviour is predicted separately from passenger car. Heavy vehicles have different characteristics and manoeuvrability compared with passenger cars. These differences could create problems in freeway operations and safety under congested traffic conditions (level of service E and F) particularly when there is high proportion of heavy vehicles. With increasing numbers of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, model estimates of the traffic flow could be degrades because existing car‐following models do not differentiate between these vehicles and passenger cars. This study highlighted some of the differences in car‐following behaviour of heavy vehicle and passenger drivers and developed a model considering heavy vehicles. In this model, the local linear model tree approach was used to incorporate human perceptual imperfections into a car‐following model. Three different real world data sets from a stretch of freeway in USA were used in this study. Two of them were used for the training and testing of the model, and one of them was used for evaluation purpose. The performance of the model was compared with a number of existing car‐following models. The results showed that the model, which considers the heavy vehicle type, could predict car‐following behaviour of drivers better than the existing models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Household choices of car-use reduction measures

The present research investigated what car-use reduction measures are perceived by households to be feasible if their goal is to reduce car driving. In Study 1 a number of such measures were included in a survey questionnaire requesting a total of 770 randomly selected respondents to rate how likely they would be to choose the different measures. The ratings suggested that for shopping trips choosing closer stores and trip chaining are more likely to be chosen than any other measure. A similar pattern was observed for leisure trips. Switching to public transport was the most likely choice for work trips. Women were more likely than men to choose public transport and trip chaining, whereas men were more likely than women to choose motorbike/moped. Choices of car pooling, biking, and motorbike/moped decreased with age. In Study 2 it was determined in interviews what choices households would make in forming car-use reduction intentions, then 1-week travel diaries were collected to assess whether their car-use intentions were implemented. A random sample of 113 multiperson households participated. They expected to be able to change approximately 10% of their car trips. However they made many more trips than they had expected. Constraints, perceived costs, and preferences for different car-use reduction measures may all play a role for the choices. Further research needs to disentangle these roles since their implications for policies are different.     

Recent advances in automotive technology and the cost-effectiveness of fuel economy improvement

The potential for improving the fuel economy of conventional, gasoline-powered automobiles through optimized application of recent technology advances is analyzed. Results are presented at three levels of technical certainty, ranging from technologies already in use to technologies facing technical constraints (such as emissions control problems) which might inhibit widespread use. A fleet-aggregate, engineering-economic analysis is used to estimate a range of U.S. new car fleet average fuel economy levels achievable given roughly 10 years of lead time. Technology cost estimates are compared to fuel savings in order to determine likely cost-effective levels of fuel economy, which are found to range from 39 miles per gallon to 51 miles per gallon depending on technology certainty level. The corresponding estimated increases in average new car price range from $540 to $790 (1993$). Estimated fuel savings payback times average less than 3 years and the cost of conserved energy averages $0.50 per gallon, indicating that these levels of fuel economy improvement are cost-effective over a vehicle lifetime. A vehicle stock turnover model is used to project the reductions in gasoline consumption and associated emissions that would follow if the estimated fuel economy levels are achieved. Potential trade-offs regarding vehicle performance, safety, and emissions are also discussed.     

Mobilizing meanings of mobility: car users’ constructions of the goods and bads of car use

When car users’ are questioned about the advantages and disadvantages of car use the focus should not be on what they say, but on how they present their arguments to the interviewer. This paper shows such arguments can differ in kind. Swedish car users present the advantages––such as ‘time-saving’––by referring to personal and direct experience. The disadvantages are of two kinds. Some are related to direct experience, such as ‘costs’. Some are made credible by reference to public discourse, notably ‘environmental degradation’. This indicates that the facts about the advantages and environmental impacts are constructed in different ways. Facts about the advantages and some of the disadvantages are constructed in a direct and unreflexive way, situated in practical actions, and leave little room for negotiation. Facts about environmental impacts are constructed by others in a distanced and reflexive process, situated in laboratories, etc. Car users adopt these facts through various media. While the arguments on the advantages of car use are presented as unquestionable and absolute, scientific facts about the negative effects of car use are presented as relative and negotiable. This should be seen as a possible explanation why people do not reduce their own car use, although they say that car use in general ought to be limited.