Panel analysis in transportation planning: An overview

The advantages, disadvantages, and issues involved in the panel analysis of travel behavior are discussed. Increased statistical efficiency, possibility of improved prediction, and the ability to observe changes and examine behavioral dynamics, are among the advantages panel data offer. Their disadvantages, on the other hand, stem from the added biases and costs of panel survey, and increased complexity involved in the analysis. Following a discussion of response lags, leads, and other dynamic elements of travel behavior, the paper offers a brief review of statistical methods available for the analysis of panel data. Use of panel data and dynamic models for demand forecasting is then described, followed by sample size, interview frequency, and other considerations in panel survey design and administration.     

Facing the realities of non-motorized transportation in developing countries

The objective of this paper is to assess issues concerning non-motorized transportation in developing countries. This assessment is done through an examination of three topics: a brief overview of the transportation picture in developing countries; a study of city size and city form vis-a-vis pedestrian movement; and, a look at the characteristics of non-motorized modes, including their capacities. An analysis and discussion attempt to sort out the crucial issues connected with pedestrian planning in particular, and non-motorized transport in general. It is concluded (1) that special attention be paid to space/time capacity/cost issues connected with non-motorized modes (2)that some of the low-cost intermediate technology modes be examined for possible inclusion in traffic streams (3)that land-use patterns need to be rearranged keeping in mind the limitations of non-motorized modes, and (4)that the extent to which physical trip-making can be substituted by telecommunication needs to be examined very critically. An agenda for action reflects these concerns.     

Computer vision approach for the classification of bike type (motorized versus non‐motorized) during busy traffic in the city of Shanghai

This article describes a novel approach for the binary classification of two‐wheeler road users in a dense mixed traffic intersection. The classification is a supervised procedure to differentiate between motorized and non‐motorized (human‐powered) bikes. Road users were first detected and tracked using object recognition methods. Classification features were then selected from the collected trajectories. The features include maximum speed, cadence frequency in addition to acceleration‐based parameters. Experiments were conducted on a video data set from Shanghai, China, where cyclists as well as motorcycles tend to share the main road facilities. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the quality of the selected features in improving the accuracy of the classification. A performance analysis demonstrated the robustness of the proposed classification method with a correct classification rate of up to 93%. This research contributes to the literature of automated data collection and can benefit the applications in many transportation‐related fields such as shared space facility planning, simulation models for two‐wheelers, and behavior analysis and road safety studies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

an analysis of transportation energy conservation projects in developing countries

Industrialized countries have extensive experience with various transportation energy conservation measures and have been making steady progress in improving the efficiency of their transport sector. Less Developed Countries (LDCs) have also been making progress, but their experience in many aspects of transportation energy conservation is very limited. Development organizations have funded many transportation projects in developing countries, but the vast majority of these projects were designed to improve the transportation infrastructure. Very few transportation energy conservation projects have been implemented and decision-makers face a scarcity of information on effective strategies. This paper gives an overview of transportation projects in LDCs in order to identify those transportation energy conservation measures that offer the greatest potential for LDCs. Two case studies, from Tunisia and Costa Rica, are given to illustrate the issues involved in implementing transportation energy conservation measures in LDCs. Conclusions are drawn to suggest actions for developing countries and for development organizations.Acronyms DECAT Driver Energy Conservation Awareness Training - DSE Direccion Sectorial de Energia (Costa Rica) - GDP Gross domestic product - km Kilometer - LDCs Less Developed Countries - TOE Metric tonne of oil equivalent - USAID US Agency for International Development     

An integrated model for quantifying accessibility-benefits in developing countries

The interaction between accessibility and rural development is a subject of current concern. The degree of accessibility determines the ability of individuals to participate in development and other social activities. The paper describes the development of a numerical method for quantifying accessibility-benefits suitable for application in developing countries. The methodology provides an integrated approach to analysing accessibility by considering all constraints faced by individuals, particularly their income. The method can be used to evaluate different accessibility-enhancing strategies, and to quantify the benefits derived by different groups of individuals under various states of socio-economic development in rural areas of developing countries. The application of the accessibility-benefits model is demonstrated using two hypothetical case studies featuring the effects of improving intermediate means of transport and improving temporal strategies. The purpose of the case studies is to demonstrate how different accessibility-enhancing strategies can be related to the key model parameters, and to show the likely magnitude of the benefits, in monetary terms, that can be attained by individuals with different income levels.     

A Pareto‐improving hybrid policy for transportation networks

This paper investigates an innovative Pareto‐improving hybrid policy that combines two policy instruments, that is, congestion pricing and road space rationing, and takes advantage of the synergistic effects between these instruments. Mathematical formulations for developing Pareto‐improving pure road space rationing schemes and hybrid policies are presented. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed hybrid policy offers greater flexibility and is more prominent in leading to Pareto improvement than both pure congestion pricing and road space rationing schemes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social inclusivity through public transportation: a strategic approach to improve quality of life in developing countries

Welfare services such as healthcare and education are commonly recognised as determinants of physical quality of life indices during the early phases of development in the third world. In order to benefit from these services, it is important that the general public have the mobility means to access welfare provision centres. However, very low vehicle ownership under the conditions of low per‐capita incomes and large shares of population living in deep rural areas prevent the masses from accessing such services, thereby retarding the process of social development, which is reflected in the very poor physical quality of life indices in low‐income countries. Public transportation could offer a viable and affordable solution to this apparent ambivalence. It could permit mobility for poor masses in spite of low per‐capita vehicle ownership enabled by the national income levels. The present research demonstrates this strategic niche through an econometric examination of the evolution of the physical quality of life indices such as maternal mortality, infant mortality and literacy as against the healthcare, education and affordable mobility proxies in post‐independent Sri Lanka. The country, which was then referred to as Ceylon, is often cited as a rare example of achieving social inclusion and reduced marginalisation and thereby a high social welfare standing, in spite of relatively poor per‐capita income levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A procedure for estimating transit subsidization requirements for developing countries

The paper presents a procedure that has been developed for estimating subsidization requirements for urban transit services in developing countries. The procedure is based on a subsidization policy of reducing transport expenditure burden on the average commuter, by maintaining his transport expenditure-income ratio at a reasonable level. It is designed for both regulated and deregulated transport markets. It requires, as input, historical data (previous year) on fare, productivity, and load factor for the transport service or mode concerned, the transport expenditure-income ratio distribution of the commuters, and the current level of commuter personal transport allowance. It is based on the premise that transport expenditure-income ratio is inversely related to income. The subsidization formula developed in the paper yields a level of subsidy that is commensurate with the level of control a government is able to exercise over transit operations.     

An econometric approach to the planning of road development in developing countries

The tools and techniques of econometrics are conventionally used in the estimation and testing of relationships between different economic variables, and their application features in the literature of transport economics.

This paper seeks to make use of econometrics in a wider field to solve a number of economic problems that crop up in investment decisions on road development in developing countries.

This study is divided into four sections with a brief conclusion. Section 1 deals with the problems that should be taken into account when taking investment decisions on road systems. In Section 2, an attempt is made to show how econometric tools can be applied in sorting out those problems. Section 3 highlights the limitations of the approach, and in Section 4, a case study is undertaken to verify the applicability of the model in reality.     

Perceived service quality of paratransit in developing countries: A structural equation approach

This paper develops empirical models for evaluating the service quality (SQ) of paratransit. Specifically, several models are developed based on structural equation modeling (SEM) using twenty-four SQ variables. To calibrate those models, a data set of 2008 paratransit users of Dhaka City are utilized, who were interviewed with a structured questionnaire to know their experience, level of satisfaction and opinion about the existing service as well as their expectations. SEM reveals the observed and latent SQ variables and their relationship with the overall SQ of paratransit. Among the different models developed, the best one is selected using statistical parameters and resemblance with real life expectations. Out of twenty-four SQ variables, ‘Punctuality and Reliability’ and ‘Service Features’ are respectively found to be the observed and latent variables having the greatest influence on the paratransit SQ. Moreover, the effect of heterogeneity among users on the performance of the best model is investigated. All the study findings support the data collected from the paratransit users. The research outcomes can be utilized by the city transportation officials of developing countries to improve the overall paratransit performance to attract new users as well as retain the current ones.     

An integrated transportation decision support system for transportation policy decisions: The case of Turkey

From the point of view of the feasibility of providing growth in road capacity parallel to the predicted growth in traffic as well in terms of impact on the environment and health, current trends in transportation are unsustainable. Transport problems are expected to worsen due to the fact that worldwide automobile ownership tripled between 1970 and 2000, and the movement of goods is projected to increase by 50% by 2010. Similar trends can be seen in an even more dramatic way in Turkey. The Turkish transport network has not followed a planned growth strategy, due to political factors. There is no transportation master plan which aims to integrate the transport modes in order to provide a balanced, multimodal system. This study proposes a decision support system that guides transportation policy makers in their future strategic decisions and facilitates analysis of the possible consequences of a specific policy on changing the share of transportation modes for both passenger and freight transportation. For this purpose, based on the wide spectrum of critical issues encountered in the transportation sector, several scenarios have been built and analysed.     

Optimizing one‐way traffic network reconfiguration and lane‐based non‐diversion routing for evacuation

Unfortunately, situations such as flood, hurricanes, chemical accidents, and other events occur frequently more and more. To improve the efficiency and practicality of evacuation management plan, an integrated optimization model of one‐way traffic network reconfiguration and lane‐based non‐diversion routing with crossing elimination at intersection for evacuation is constructed in this paper. It is an integrated model aiming at minimizing the network clearance time based on Cell Transmission Model. A hybrid algorithm with modified genetic algorithm and tabu search method is devised for approximating optimal problem solutions. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and solving method, two cases are illustrated in this paper. Through the first example, it can be seen that the proposed model and algorithm can effectively solve the integrated problems, and compared with the objective value of the original network, the network clearance time of the final solution reduces by 47.4%. The calculation results for the realistic topology and size network of Ningbo in China, which locates on the east coast of the Pacific Ocean, justify the practical value of the model and solution method, and solutions under different settings of reduction amount of merging cell capacity embody obvious differences. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effectiveness of en route traffic information in developing countries using conventional discrete choice and neural‐network models

Providing commuters with traffic information or advising them of alternative routes during traffic incidents can alleviate congestion. For decades, advanced traveler information services (ATIS) have been devised and dedicated to this role. ATIS comprises a wide variety of technologies across the world, including radio traffic information (RTI) advisory service. RTI is common in both developed and developing countries. Although extensive literature and evaluation results of ATISs and RTI are available in developed countries, little attention has been devoted to that in developing countries. This work provides a modeling platform to study drivers' response to en route traffic information provided by Radio‐Payam broadcasting service in Tehran, the capital city of the developing country of Iran. The results are compared with counterpart cases in developed countries. Past studies and this study have employed conventional discrete models for drivers' response, such as ordered logit and ordered probit. This work evaluates the accuracy level of these conventional models in comparison with a developed neural‐network (NN) model, because it has been widely proven that NN models are highly precise. It has also been found that, apart from reliability, the conventional models are within an acceptable level of prediction accuracy compared with the NN models. The results show a high degree of similarities between the case of Tehran and its counterparts in the developing countries. The results also deliver some insights on how to improve or better implement the ATIS technologies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ontologies for transportation research: A survey

Transportation research relies heavily on a variety of data. From sensors to surveys, data supports day-to-day operations as well as long-term planning and decision-making. The challenges that arise due to the volume and variety of data that are found in transportation research can be effectively addressed by ontologies. This opportunity has already been recognized – there are a number of existing transportation ontologies, however the relationship between them is unclear. The goal of this work is to provide an overview of the opportunities for ontologies in transportation research and operation, and to present a survey of existing transportation ontologies to serve two purposes: (1) to provide a resource for the transportation research community to aid in understanding (and potentially selecting between) existing transportation ontologies; and (2) to identify future work for the development of transportation ontologies, by identifying areas that may be lacking.     

Integrated land use transportation planning in facilitating and guiding the industrialization process in developing countries: The case of the Johor Bahru metropolitan area

The developing countries in their effort in promoting and guiding their industrialization program require effective land use and transportation planning to facilitate the urbanization process and optimize the use of resources. The recent rapid industrialization process in the Johor Bahru metropolitan area due to overspill development from Singapore, the Johor (Malaysia) and Batam Island (Indonesia), the Singapore development triangle proposal and policy deregulation of the Johor State government needreexamination of the existing Structure Plan policy (1984) framework for this region. The authors made observations on the current development and land use and transport policy framework of Johor Bahru-Pasir Gudang Structure Plan (1984), Malaysia with a view towards improving the land use and transportation planning approach.     

Railway planning in developing countries: a case study of Colombia

This paper describes a study of possible network changes for the Colombian railway system. A cost model is developed and the variation of costs with traffic density and with gradient is analysed and found to be different from that expected from experience in developed countries. The evaluation of network changes is carried out by a form of systems analysis in which two new lines and many closures are examined. Closures are evaluated by means of social cost benefit analysis incorporating a consumers’ surplus approach. The study recommends fairly radical changes to the present network configuration, these involving the construction of one new line and the closure of several existing ones.     

Proposed framework for sustainability screening of urban transport projects in developing countries: A case study of Accra,Ghana

This paper documents a framework suggested for screening urban transport projects in developing countries to reflect local issues relevant to sustainability. The framework is based on the integration of indigenous and scientific knowledge to reflect the sustainability of candidate projects. This is achieved through a participatory approach to integrate inputs from system users and providers to produce a term defined as the Localized Sustainability Score (LSS). The LSS of the projects are then used to produce a relative ranking of potential projects, for use as a decision support for project screening and selection. Proof-of-concept development of the proposed LSS framework is presented via a preliminary case study in Accra–Ghana and the results indicate that the framework adequately represented local sustainable transport needs, priorities and perceptions. The LSS determined for some selected projects maintained the original relative rankings that were already derived using conventional methods. The LSS also has the added advantage of evaluating projects of different scales, which were not easy to evaluate together by conventional methods.     

An integrated risk assessment model: A case of sustainable freight transportation systems

The major challenge in the development of sustainable freight transportation systems (SFTSs) is due to the involvement of numerous dynamic uncertainties and intrinsic sustainability risks. Sustainability risks are potential threats that can have undesirable impacts on the sustainability of a system. The main objective of this study is to identify and evaluate the sustainability risks associated with freight transportation systems (FTSs). Accordingly, a risk analysis approach is developed by innovatively integrating the intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and D-number theory to quantitatively model the sustainability risks. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers can examine both the membership and non-membership degrees of an element while the D-number theory increases the objectivity of assessments by fusing multiple expert judgments. The proposed risk assessment model facilitates the managers in the development of SFTSs by ensuring visibility, predictability and measurability in freight operations. Unlike the conventional perception, the findings indicate that most of the high priority sustainability risks in FTSs are socially induced rather than financially driven and consciousness in people’s conduct is must to attain the positive results. The analysis alerts the freight managers toward the high priority sustainability risks and guides in pro-active strategy formulation and optimum allocation of mitigation resources to minimize disruptions in SFTSs.