Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

国外内河集装箱运输的现状与趋势

介绍国外集装箱运输的主要航道、港口、船舶等基本情况,阐述内河集装箱运输在综合运输体系中的地位及促进内河集装箱运输的有关政策,阐明国外内河集装箱运输发展模式和趋势及对我国内河集装箱运输发展的借鉴意义。     

天津水域水上交通事故统计分析和对策研究

文中通过统计分析天津水域九年间水上交通事故资料,探索水域内水上交通事故的发生规律,分析了导致事故频发的人、船、环境、管理各方面的主要原因,并在此基础上对未来水域内事故发展趋势进行了预测。     

Crucial factors influencing international logistics operations for African landlocked countries – A case study of Burkina Faso

ABSTRACT

This study aims to evaluate the crucial factors influencing international logistics operations for African landlocked countries. To this end, a case study and a questionnaire survey were conducted. A total of 147 usable responses from container shipping firms were obtained as a result of the questionnaire survey. The results of factor analysis revealed that transportation capability, external risks, information integration, logistics infrastructure, local agents’ logistics capability, and national law and policy were crucial factors influencing the logistics operations of African landlocked countries. Specifically, local agents’ logistics capability was perceived by respondents to be the most important factor. Moreover, the results of the study also indicated that the highest factor mean values of small shipping companies were related to transportation capability, external risks and the local agents’ logistics capability, whereas container shipping companies that arranged trucks for inland transportation paid more attention to the external risks, logistics infrastructure, the local agents’ logistics capability, and national law and policy.     

Structural relationships among shipper’s perception,value, and choice intention of Korea–China train ferry service

ABSTRACT

The logistics environment between China and Korea has been changing rapidly in line with the ‘Go West’ policy of international trade and logistics area. The policy includes the BRI, Western Development Strategy, and Korea–China FTA. Against this background, the Korea–China train ferry (KCTF) is being newly illuminated as an alternative mode to cope with the logistics environment between Korea and China. One of the key success factors of the KCTF depends on, among others, shippers’ perception, which will affect the choice and the successful operation of the KCTF. From this perspective, this paper develops seven hypotheses based on the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). We test these hypotheses using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore the structural relationship between shippers’ behavioral beliefs influencing the perceived usefulness, the attitude toward and intention to choose the KCTF. The test results confirm that among the behavioral beliefs, transport accessibility in association with an efficient network of inland roads and railway networks is an important prerequisite. In addition, we verified a high statistical significance in the structural relationships among perceived usefulness, the attitude toward and the intention to choose the KCTF.     

Upstream pollution sources and coastal water quality protection in North Carolina

Abstract

A watershed‐based approach to water quality management is necessary for protecting coastal water quality, but the relative importance of inland pollution sources on estuaries is often overestimated. This can lead to a misallocation of coastal water protection resources and ignorance of coastal zone pollution sources. This overestimation of upstream contributions is attributable to a failure to recognize that many estuaries have little or no inland drainage area, the confusion of basinwide pollutant loading with pollutant delivery to estuaries, the low delivery ratios for many pollutants within drainage basins, and disproportionately high pollutant delivery for sources within the coastal zone. Examples are given from North Carolina. As a general rule, resources expended on pollution control within or near the coastal zone will result in more coastal water quality improvement per unit effort than resources expended upstream.     

基于改进Apriori算法的船用柴油机装配工艺文件关联规则挖掘研究

柴油机作为船舶关键部件之一,其装配工艺设计的合理与否与船舶的整体性能直接相关。针对企业历史装配工艺文件不能充分为新机型装配任务发布时装配工艺设计提供支撑的问题,提出一个基于关联规则挖掘的柴油机装配工艺规则挖掘系统,该系统充分利用已有装配工艺文件,结合数据挖掘技术,对文件进行挖掘分析,建立装配规则库,为后续装配工艺智能设计提供数据支持。本文提出一种改进的Apriori算法,建立了关联规则挖掘的数学模型和基于自定义词典装配工艺文件分词算法,将分词处理过后的文件可以作为数据挖掘算法的输入,并在传统Apriori算法的基础上提出一种改进的Apriori算法,该算法核心思想是在对候选频繁事务集剪枝时,降低算法的时间复杂度,从而提高挖掘效率直到获得柴油机装配工艺文件中的关联规则。最后以某船厂的历史机型柴油机气缸盖装配工艺文件为例,验证了改进Apriori算法在挖掘柴油装配工艺文件关联规则时的可行性和有效性。     

A three-dimensional risk management model of port logistics for hazardous goods

ABSTRACT

Ports are the distribution centers of hazardous goods in the global transportation system. Once hazardous goods accidents occur in ports, they may cause catastrophic losses to humans and the environment. This research investigates the port logistics risks of hazardous goods and provides an overview of port logistics regarding hazardous goods risks. With this investigation, we conducted a detailed analysis of the underlying causes of the port logistics accidents related to hazardous goods. To manage these risks, this article proposes a three-dimensional risk management model that includes human, governance and goods and provides a risk level identification framework for port hazardous goods logistics. Applying the three-dimensional risk management model, we use the Tianjin port explosion as a case study. Finally, we provide several potential preventative measures to prevent such accidents. The findings of this article contribute to the implementation and monitoring of port strategies that will allow for more sustainable and secure development.     

Association rule learning to improve deficiency inspection in port state control

ABSTRACT

The inspection of foreign ships in national ports is a critical measure in port state control (PSC), preventing substandard ships from entering national ports. Multifarious inspection items, limited inspection time and inspector manpower are challenging PSC inspection. This research applies data mining to analyze historical PSC inspection records in Taiwan’s major ports to extract potential valuable information for PSC onboard inspections. Using the Apriori Algorithm, the analysis identifies many useful association rules among PSC deficiencies in terms of specific ship characteristics, such as ship types, societies, and flags. The general rules identified show that the items ‘Water/Weathertight conditions’ and ‘Fire safety’ are significantly related. Besides, in the analysis of the various ship types, several different rules are found. After comparing the analysis of ship types and ship societies, it can be observed that the association rules for specific ship types, such as oil tankers, have a better effect than those for individual ship societies do. These identified rules can not only help inspectors effectively spot the associated deficiencies, but also improve the efficiency of PSC inspection. The ports other than Taiwan’s ports can apply a similar analysis method to identify corresponding association rules suitable for their own inspections.     

Optimal investment priority in container port development

The aim of this paper is to develop realistic and relevant investment planning models for inland container transportation systems. The models may be utilized to identify the most effective investment plan for inland transportation infrastructure development and to evaluate the inland container transportation system. The procedure enables determination of the optimal locations, sizes and time of container port developments as well as the optimal container cargo flows through transportation networks. A heuristic algorithm was developed for the purpose of evaluating alternative investment plans. Dynamic and linear programming methods are applied to each of the two planning problems: the former for the optimum container port capacity development problem and the latter for the optimal allocation of inland container traffic movements. The model has been applied to concrete inland container transportation system problems in Korea.     

Optimal investment priority in container port development

The aim of this paper is to develop realistic and relevant investment planning models for inland container transportation systems. The models may be utilized to identify the most effective investment plan for inland transportation infrastructure development and to evaluate the inland container transportation system. The procedure enables determination of the optimal locations, sizes and time of container port developments as well as the optimal container cargo flows through transportation networks. A heuristic algorithm was developed for the purpose of evaluating alternative investment plans. Dynamic and linear programming methods are applied to each of the two planning problems: the former for the optimum container port capacity development problem and the latter for the optimal allocation of inland container traffic movements. The model has been applied to concrete inland container transportation system problems in Korea.     

集对分析法在长江干线水上交通安全上的应用

分析长江干线水上交通安全的风险因素,结合长江干线水上交通安全事故特点,建立人-船-环-管系统安全评价指标体系,共计21项指标。应用层次分析法确定指标权重,应用集对分析法（set-pair-analysis,SPA）确定评价标准级并构建长江干线水上交通安全评价模型,进行长江干线水上交通安全状况评价。评价结果可判断现状的危险度并能预测安全状况的发展趋势,为水上交通安全管理决策提供参考。     

文本数据挖掘中的进化信息算法

在对基于海量文本数据信息的数据仓库进行数据挖掘过程中,产生出一类带有时态特征的进化信息,介绍了在文本数据仓库中进行数据挖掘和知识发现过程中的进化现象,定义了进化过程的数学模型,并对数据挖掘中进化过程模型的建立提出了相关规则。     

Intermodal land transportation systems and port choice,an analysis of stated choices among shippers in the Rhine–Scheldt delta

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the research concentrates on the intermodal land transportation systems which link Antwerp and Rotterdam with a shared hinterland in the long and medium distance range. It uses a choice-based experiment which has been calibrated on the basis of real case studies to understand shipper’s choices between end-to-end chains. The stated choices reveal shippers’ preferences when needing to choose between two logistic pathways, which employ a similar multimodal composition of transport modes to bring the container from door-to-door, but which route the container differently through alternative maritime gateways. The study therefore touches upon the topic of port competition applying a value-driven supply chain approach. Despite narrow differences on the main performance criteria of the door-to-door chains, the empirical analysis proves that shippers are not loyal to one of the ports, but give preference to the lowest cost solution. Enhancing the frequency levels of the inland transportation solution is only at the benefit of the more costly chain. The findings reiterate the importance of intermodal land transport systems in the competition between load centres.     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

特殊货物水上运输安全对策研究

文中针对近年来载运钢材、精选矿粉和内贸集装箱船舶引发的沉船事故或险情,系统分析了特殊货物水上运输安全存在的问题,提出了对特殊货物水上安全运输对策的相关建议。     

H-C:基于H-Struct的频繁闭合项集挖掘算法

提出了一种基于H-struct结构的频繁闭合项集挖掘算法H-C。该算法利用了H-struct动态链接结构的特点,快速且高效地挖掘闭合的频繁项集,大大减少了冗余关联规则的产生。试验表明该算法对大型数据库的处理效率和扩展性优于传统的频繁项集生成算法。     

依靠科技手段长效解决长三角地区内河堵航问题

通过对长江三角洲地区内河堵航现象的描述,结合具体案例对长三角地区堵航原因进行了深入调查研究和分析,揭示了导致频繁堵航的深层次的原因,指出除了采取加强基础设施建设、改善航道通航条件以外,还必须采取先进的科学技术,实施全面建设、综合治理,才能长效解决长三角地区船舶堵航问题。     

内河智能交通系统研究

内河航运在运输成本、环保、可持续发展等方面优势突出,而内河航运管理相对滞后。提出内河智能交通系统的概念,阐明内河智能交通系统的3个关键技术:船舶定位、无线数据通信、电子河图显示与信息系统,并对我国发展内河智能交通系统提出建议。     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.