Maritime accident risk estimation for sea lanes based on a dynamic Bayesian network

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation has become increasingly important with the development of international economics and trade. This paper introduces a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to facilitate the estimation of the dynamic emergency risk in sea lanes. The DBN model is a novel model that can efficiently represent and infer complex stochastic knowledge. To construct this model, available data, which were collected from emergency investigation reports by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), are employed in conjunction with expert knowledge to develop and demonstrate a BN; an evidence theory approach is applied to calculate the prior probability with the help of historical data; the conditional probability is learned by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm; and the transition probability is obtained by a Markov model. Finally, the Viterbi algorithm is adopted to estimate emergency risk. The emergencies that occurred in the Indian Ocean from 2009 to 2018 were used as a case study for risk estimation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify significant influential factors. The results show that the sea lane risk in the Indian Ocean fluctuates within a small range, presenting an overall downward trend over time. These findings provide a reference for maritime stakeholders to make proper decisions.     

Logistics connectivity considering import and export for Chinese inland regions in the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road by dry ports

This investigation studies the logistics connectivity of inland Chinese provinces along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) from the perspective of the oriented cooperation relationship between seaports and dry ports in inland regions. The logistics connectivity is measured based on the import and export data. First, complex network theory is used to develop a system for evaluating logistics connectivity of inland regions, involving metrics of susceptible-infected-recovered, and improved closeness centrality proposed to drawing on the characteristics of the studied network based on closeness centrality. Second, based on collected data, 136 dry ports in China and 127 seaports along the MSR have been used to construct an empirical network that covers 15 inland provinces of China. Then, the accessibility and importance of inland provinces are analyzed, and key points that serve the improvement of the logistics connectivity of inland provinces are mined and summarized. An example of an improved scheme for the connectivity of inland provinces is presented to demonstrate the application of these key points. The conclusions drawn support decision-making for local governments to improve the logistics connectivity of inland regions in the international logistics network, and then strengthen the participation of inland provinces in the MSR.     

Spatial heterogeneity of ports in the global maritime network detected by weighted ego network analysis

More extensive attention has been paid to the heterogeneity of maritime transport network in topological rather than in spatial aspects. However, the importance of links and the roles of neighbors of a node has been ignored if not all. To fill this gap, this article introduced the approach of weighted ego network analysis (WENA) to visualize the spatial heterogeneity of the maritime network at global and local levels. The topological connectivity graph of the global marine network was derived, and its structural properties were analyzed. It is found out that the values of the degree of ports follow power-law distribution, which indicates that the global marine network is scale-free, that is, there are few well-connected ports and a majority of less connected ports. The spatial disparities of the network can be described by a core–periphery pattern. In global, most of the hubs or ports with extremely high values of degree locate in the big-three maritime regions including Far East, North America, and West Europe. Along the peripheral belts of the three regions, there are lots of less connected small ports. A different hierarchical structure of six continents was captured by WENA. It is found that Europe, Asia, North America, and Africa showcase a pyramid-shaped hierarchical structure with a scale-free feature similar to the entire network, while South America and Oceania exhibit the fusiform hierarchy like small-world networks. It is proposed that such spatial inequality and heterogeneity were caused by the geographical environments such as the hub-and-spoke organization, the embedded trade pattern, and the proximity of location. These findings help us to understand the characteristics of the international trade pattern and shed light on the strategies of development for the industry stakeholders.     

Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with a focus on maritime transport

The ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road’ (collectively known as Belt and Road, B&R) has been initiated by the Chinese government in 2013. The B&R is increasingly becoming a focal point for socio-economic–political interests because of its likely impact on land and sea transport and maritime logistics. The aims of this study were threefold: first, to provide an overview on the B&R, focusing on its key structural elements, such as transport corridors, city clusters, dry ports, infrastructure, zoning, and area development; second, to identify the expected impacts of the B&R on trade and implications on structural changes in transportation systems, port networks, and international logistics. Finally, to discuss major research trends and setting up of research agenda which will contribute to enriching the existing literature and shaping the global trade operations and drive economic growth in the context of the B&R.     

Risk influencing factors analysis of Arctic maritime transportation systems: a Chinese perspective

Recently, the melting of Arctic sea ice and development of maritime technology are enabling the regular voyages in Arctic waters. However, the Arctic maritime transportation system (AMTS) is a complex and dynamic system with respect to human, technical, environmental and organizational issues. For example, ships operating in Arctic waters suffer severe weather conditions, fully and partially ice-covered waters, and are also difficult to search and rescue in ice-covered Arctic waters due to remoteness from lands. These risk factors will influence the safety and security of ships operating in Arctic waters. For this, this paper identifies potential risk influencing factors (RIFs) for the AMTS from human, technical (ship), environmental and organizational aspects. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to analyze the hierarchical relationships and calculate the relative importance of the selected RIFs. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved in the comprehensive analysis of RIFs for the AMTS, fuzzy sets are incorporated into AHP analysis to represent and treat the epistemic uncertainty. The identified critical RIFs in this study can be used to propose specific guidance for the operations of crews on board, ship owners, and ship managers.     

基于贝叶斯网络的船舶人因安全性评估模型

针对舰船系统特点,设计了相应的人因安全性调查问卷,确定人因安全性影响因素、节点状态和条件概率.建立基于贝叶斯网络的船舶人因安全性量化评估模型,据此对影响安全性的因素进行灵敏度分析.结果表明,提出的安全性量化评估模型和分析方法正确、可行、有效.     

Multimodal route choice in maritime transportation: the case of Korean auto-parts exporters

Global offshoring has increased the need for transport of half-finished goods and components, along with finished goods. The auto-parts industry in Korea has also entered the global market as Korean car manufacturers have started to build overseas factories. Maintaining cost competitiveness by minimising total logistics costs will thus be a critical strategy for the industry. This research compares the total annual costs of four feasible transport routes from Korea to the US using the inventory-theoretic model, which encompasses direct transport costs, in-transit carrying costs, and warehouse inventory costs. We apply this model to real transport data collected from a Korean auto-parts company. A static analysis shows that inventory costs can play a decisive role in altering the cost competitiveness of different routes. In addition, sensitivity and scenario analyses with changes in variables and the market situations reveal that the cost structure of each route plays an important role in determining their relative cost competitiveness in varying market conditions.     

基于贝叶斯网络方法对船舶搁浅概率的研究

针对船舶航行安全的薄弱环节,在故障树分析船舶搁浅事故成因的基础上,运用贝叶斯网络对事件之间的多态性和逻辑性进行了研究。得到了事件的后验概率值,分析了导致事故发生的薄弱环节,推理得出最可能引起事故发生的事件组合,结果与统计资料一致,为提高船舶运营的安全和运营管理提供了科学依据。     

基于贝叶斯网络的半潜式钻井平台钻井设备系统可靠性分析

半潜式钻井平台的系统可靠性是保证其正常进行安全生产作业的重要指标。当前,国内对半潜式平台的可靠性研究主要集中于平台结构的可靠性上,对平台系统可靠性少有涉猎,并且传统可靠性分析方法难以定量分析某个设备的失效对系统可靠性的影响。本文提出应用贝叶斯网络法来进行半潜式钻井平台系统可靠性分析,通过设备间的依赖关系来确定网络结构和节点参数,建立贝叶斯网络模型并计算出系统可靠度,再对钻井系统进行故障诊断,推算钻井系统中各个根节点的后验概率,并成功找出钻井系统中的最薄弱环节为顶驱装置(Top-drive Drilling System, TDS),从而有针对性的对顶驱装置进行优化,可以有效提升半潜式钻井平台系统可靠性。     

船用锅炉主过热蒸汽管路破损的贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析

针对贝叶斯网络方法在处理大规模复杂系统上的优点,结合当前船用锅炉的安全性定量分析特点,提出将贝叶斯网络方法应用于船用锅炉的安全性分析。通过探讨贝叶斯网络及故障树分析方法原理,尝试将贝叶斯网络与故障树分析方法结合起来,主要突出贝叶斯网络方法可以实现数据的自动更新及由后验信息到先验信息的反向推理能力。最后将该方法应用于船用锅炉的安全性定量分析中,通过更新观测部件故障状态实现了整个系统的自动更新,并自动查找出最大概率事件,证实该方法提高了安全性分析效率,使实际操作更加准确、快捷,极大地的降低了事故带来的风险。     

A multi-criteria decision method for the analysis of the Motorways of the Sea: the application to the case of France and Spain on the Atlantic Coast

Despite European Union (EU) political support to identify the most feasible Motorways of the Sea, the final decision can only be made by Private Shipping Companies, which are operators of a unique stretch of the intermodal chain. This paper provides a multi-criteria decision method to identify the most suitable Motorways of the Sea taking into account the competitiveness of whole intermodal routes versus the alternative of road transport from the loader’s perspective. The analysis is carried out assuming a ‘many-to-many’ transport model. Firstly indexes of time and cost were defined and evaluated for every available route in the model in accordance with a multi-criteria decision matrix. Secondly, through a Monte Carlo simulation a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to evaluate the influence on the results of the forecast assumed to construct the matrix. The results obtained are not only quantitative, but also qualitative. The development of intermodal routes via Motorways of the Sea is especially relevant for the peripheral EU countries. Due to the relevance of the freight flow between France and Spain and the congestion of their connections through the Pyrenees, the method proposed was applied to the analysis of this particular case     

On the evaluation of a public transportation network quality: Criteria validation methodology

A public transportation network serves in adequate way a population if it evolves in time following the existent social reality. Changes made in order to improve service must be analyzed and evaluated. The introduction of modern technology to validate the fare card allowed a quick access to important, although incomplete, data. Databases with only the getting in validation information can be used to construct an origin–destination (OD) matrix, allowing a service quality analysis. Here it is presented a basic methodology to rigorously validate service quality criteria considering what might be interesting for the user. The quality analysis philosophy is the following. First, based on automatically gathered data, one reconstructs the origin–destination (OD) matrix, which contains information concerning the number of passengers traveling between zones of a certain region. The OD matrix is used to calculate some criteria characterizing the transportation network quality, such as traveling times, waiting times at a stop or transport occupation. The reconstructed OD matrix always contains errors, which cause errors in the criteria values. How significant are these errors? This question can be answered using our criteria validating methodology, which is based on statistical analysis. It has been implemented at the urban bus transport system of Porto, STCP, allowing the evaluation of the transportation network quality under a number of criteria and guaranteeing rigorous results.     

Across the waves: a bibliometric analysis of container shipping research since the 1960s

The paper investigates collaborative and semantic patterns that emerged between 1967 and 2013 about the theme of container shipping based on a corpus of 294 articles published in scholarly journals within the fields of transportation, supply chain, economics, geography, regional planning and development, and operations research. An analysis based on the co-occurrence of title words allows identifying dominant sub-themes and their evolution. Main results point to the gradual diversification of container shipping research, from the dominance of economics towards a more trans-disciplinary set of approaches which integrate port-related activities and multimodal networks. Yet, disciplinary specialization remains strong up to nowadays so that container shipping research remains rather fragmented. While co-authorships have increased over time, they remain polarized by few, weakly connected research battalions. Our study suggests that research on container shipping would benefit from more frequent contacts between such communities to foster in-depth cross-disciplinary studies and fundamental cooperation.