Optimal portfolio choice for ship leasing investments

ABSTRACT

We develop an advanced portfolio analysis method to determine the optimal ship mix for a portfolio. A typical business model of a ship leasing firm is to acquire ships for charter income. However, transportation assets (such as ships and aircraft) are different from financial assets (e.g. stocks and bonds) as they are tangible and have a limited useful life. Thus, methodologies for financial portfolios cannot be simply extended to portfolios of transportation assets. Recently, ship leasing represents a non-traditional source of ship finance. A ship leasing firm can manage a certain number of ships across different ship types. Based on portfolio theory and industry-related evidence, we construct an optimal ship portfolio consisting of a manageable combination of carefully chosen ships. The expected return of the asset combination is examined with respect to various ship types and sizes. We quantify the freight risk for different categories of ships in different sectors to investigate the characteristics of ship portfolios. The estimation of such freight risk is of considerable interest to academics and practitioners alike, because determining the behaviour of freight risk has important implications for investment decisions regarding ships. Our portfolio method should strongly support the decision-making process involved in leasing ships.     

Fast evaluation of ship-bridge collision force based on nonlinear numerical simulation

The max collision force of ship-bridge collision is one of the most important references for bridge design. By means of nonlinear digital simulation method, the collision forces of the collisions between rigid bridge pier and ship bow were calculated out for four different ships, whose tonnages are 5 000, l0 000,50 000 and 60 000 DWT respectively. Curves of collision force-penetration and absorbed energy-penetration are obtained, and the data of the max loads are then summarized. On the basis of these curves and data, a set of curves describing the relationships between max collision forces and tonnages of the ships are successfully presented, by which the max collision forces of the ships-bridge with different tonnages and in different velocities can be estimated easily and reliably.     

舰船自动智能避碰数学模型及其仿真研究

为了提高舰船航行的安全和效率,达到最佳操船效果,需要建立舰船自动智能避碰数字模型.当前模型在分析舰船避碰风险度的基础上,通过人工智能、进化计算和软计算等方法实现舰船自动智能避碰,存在避碰识别准确率较低的问题.本文提出一种新的舰船自动智能避碰数学模型,首先对舰船会遇态势进行判断;然后建立预测舰船碰撞风险判断模型,预测本舰船实施自动智能避碰方案后的复航时机是否已到,以及本舰船立即复航是否能够让清目标舰船或其他所有目标舰船;最后依据舰船碰撞风险判断结果,以当前舰船潜在碰撞风险为例,建立舰船自动智能避碰数学模型.仿真结果证明,所提模型能够实现舰船自动智能避碰.     

考虑船位预测不确定性的船舶碰撞危险度计算方法

[目的]船舶碰撞是威胁智能船舶航行安全的主要因素。船舶碰撞危险度计算模型应及时发现船舶航行中潜在的碰撞风险,为智能船舶的自主避让决策提供依据。[方法]首先,根据船舶领域侵入程度与侵入时间等参数,分析基于领域的碰撞危险参数计算模型,将航行场景划分为单船会遇局面和本船与船舶群组的会遇局面,给出一种新的多船会遇情况下的碰撞危险参数计算模型;其次,基于维纳过程对船位预测不确定性进行建模,根据卡方分布获取船位预测不确定性椭圆;最后,给出考虑船位预测不确定性的碰撞危险参数计算方法。[结果]该计算模型能够考虑船位预测不确定性对船舶碰撞危险的影响。[结论]可以进一步保障智能船舶的海上航行安全。     

计算机模拟航迹在船舶碰撞分析中的应用研究

本文以1989年4月21日在我国台湾海峡G轮和T轮的碰撞为典型实例,以双方的事故申报记载不全,证词记录有疑点,不能确定两船在碰撞前的实际航迹为前提,通过计算机技术的图象处理,模拟事故双方在碰撞前的航迹的可能变化,结合当时的环境条件,选择最可能的碰撞航迹,从而可以判断出碰撞前两船各自的操纵情况,直观明瞭,初步探讨了一种模糊航迹的判断方法。模拟的航迹可以永久存档,弥补了船舶文件的不足和检验了事故双方陈述的正确性,为正确分析碰撞事故的原因提供了科学依据。     

旁靠补给系泊系统研究

本文建立一种旁靠补给系泊系统,目标船舶和补给船通过缆绳连接,两船之间设置有浮箱防止碰撞,浮箱两面均设置有护舷起缓冲作用.本文重点研究旁靠系泊系统的动力特性,并在频域和时域进行研究,频域研究中得到船舶的幅值响应算子RAO;时域研究得到两船相对位移响应和缆绳的张力最大值,通过设置不同的系泊系统组成参数等,研究各个参数对系泊系统运动稳定性的影响.本文可为未来的旁靠补给方式研究提供一定的参考,有较高的工程实用价值.     

基于CFD的内河船深浅水中操纵性预报

由于岸壁效应和浅水效应,内河船舶在限制水域作操纵运动时通常受到比在开阔水域中更大的水动力.这些水动力对船舶操纵性具有不利影响,有可能导致船舶碰撞或触底等海上事故.因此,为了在船舶设计阶段预报其操纵性能,考虑浅水效应和岸壁效应以准确计算内河船舶操纵运动水动力非常重要.本文基于CFD方法,通过对粘性绕流进行数值模拟,对长江中营运的三艘内河船舶的操纵运动水动力进行计算.首先,为了验证数值方法的可靠性,对标模KVLCC2纯横荡和纯首摇试验的水动力进行计算,并将计算结果与现有的试验数据进行对比.然后,对三艘内河船舶在不同水深下的静舵试验、纯横荡和纯首摇试验进行数值模拟,计算得到水动力及相应的线性水动力导数.最后,基于计算得到的水动力导数,获得Nomoto模型中的操纵性参数,对比分析三艘内河船舶在深浅水中的操纵性能.结果表明,本文方法可以揭示不同水深下三艘内河船舶的操纵性变化趋势.该方法可为船舶设计阶段内河船舶深浅水中的操纵性预报提供一种实用的工具.     

The influence of fluid structure interaction modelling on the dynamic response of ships subject to collision and grounding

Analysis of the dynamic response of ships in accident scenarios requires a realistic idealisation of environmental and operational conditions by multi-physics models. This paper presents a procedure that simulates the influence of strongly coupled FSI effects on the dynamic response of ships involved in typical collision and grounding events. Our method couples an explicit 6-DoF structural dynamic finite element scheme with a hydrodynamic method accounting for (a) 6-DoF potential flow hydrodynamic actions; (b) the influence of evasive ship speed in the way of contact and (c) the effects of hydrodynamic resistance based on a RANS CFD model. Multi-physics simulations for typical accident scenarios involving passenger ships confirm that suitable FSI modelling may be critical for either collision or grounding events primarily because of the influence of hydrodynamic restoring forces.     

Voyage-based statistical fuel consumption models of ocean-going container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Accurately estimating fuel consumption of ships is crucial for shipping companies, port authorities, and environmental protection agencies. The bottom-up approach is becoming increasingly popular because it can estimate ship fuel consumption by accounting for ship activity conditions, such as changes in voyage speed, time, and distance; however, its use is still limited when estimating ship fuel consumption. Ship-specific information, such as the daily fuel consumption rate for main and auxiliary engines for every vessel, is expensive to gather, and generally not collected from private shipping companies. To address this research gap, we develop simplified and composite ship fuel consumption models for ocean-going container ships by size using a regression model. To estimate the fuel consumption models for container ships, we rely on ship activity data, including average speed and sailing time, distance, and actual fuel consumption for main and auxiliary engines. This information is obtained from a major container shipping company in Korea. We estimate and validate the parameters associated with fuel consumption for five different container ship sizes, all of which are smaller than the Post-Panamax container ship (15,000 TEU and above).     

船舶与桥墩碰撞的数值模拟

利用有限元软件,模拟4种不同载重吨位的船舶以不同的速度与某桥墩发生碰撞的过程,演示有限元法仿真计算船桥碰撞问题的一般过程,着重分析船舶和桥墩的损伤程度.在此基础上,归纳出撞深速度、撞击时间-速度和桥墩的应力分布.     

顶推船队联结力试验研究

对推船与驳船之间的系结力进行模型试验,测量不同航速、不同浪向角对应的驳船和推轮联结处的纵向力、横向力和垂向力,将试验结果换算到实船,供顶推船设计参考。     

基于驾驶实践的无人船智能避碰决策方法

[目的]为实现沿海无人驾驶船舶自主航行,充分考虑无人驾驶船舶智能避碰决策的合理性和实时性后,提出并建立一种基于驾驶实践的无人船智能避碰决策方法.[方法]首先,以本体论为基础,设计无人驾驶船舶航行态势本体概念模型,并结合《国际海上避碰规则》及良好的船艺将船舶航行态势量化划分为12种会遇场景;然后,从驾驶实践的角度改进影响...     

基于有限元法的渔船碰撞仿真

以一起3万吨商船碰撞渔船为例,在充分考虑几何非线性、材料非线性和接触非线性的基础上,对商船满载和压载两种工况下与渔船的碰撞进行了仿真研究,分析了不同速度工况下渔船的损毁情况、应力情况和总能量吸收规律等。结果表明:碰撞主要破坏渔船的局部结构,且发生时间很短;商船速度越快,渔船损毁越严重;渔船破损处的形状与商船的形状非常相似,结合商船航行记录及仿真结果有助于判断商船是否为肇事船舶。     

水介质对船冰碰撞结构响应的影响

以极地运输船舶艏部作为研究对象,建立基于流固耦合算法的船-水-冰耦合技术对三维船艏与冰体碰撞的结构响应问题进行了研究,结合非线性有限元软件LS-DYNA对比分析了考虑流固耦合(即有水介质)的船-水-冰碰撞模型和不考虑流固耦合(即无水介质)的船-冰碰撞模型与同质量不同速度的冰体发生碰撞下的结构响应问题,揭示了不同碰撞工况下船舶在损伤变形、碰撞力、速度等方面的变化特征及差异,同时阐述了水介质在船冰碰撞中的作用,可以为极地运输船舶的抗冲击结构设计提供参考。     

Design of bridges against ship collisions

The paper outlines a rational design procedure for bridge piers and pylons against ship collision impacts. Firstly, a set of risk acceptance criteria are proposed. This is followed by a mathematically based procedure for calculation of the probability of critical ship meeting situations near the bridge, and the probability of ship collision accidents caused by human errors as well as technical errors. This first part of the paper leads to identification of the largest striking ship, “design vessels”, a given bridge pier must withstand without structural failure in order for the bridge connection to fulfil the risk acceptance criteria. The final part of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the needed impact capacity for the bridge pylons and piers exposed to ship bow impact loads from these “design vessels”. For a number of different ship types and different tonnage merchant vessels, load – displacement relations for ship bow collisions against rigid walls are derived. Based on these comprehensive numerical results, a new empirical relation is derived which is suited for design against bow collisions. This expression for maximum bow collision forces is compared with a previously published expression for ice-strengthened ships and with existing standards for assessment of bow crushing forces. It is shown that there is need for an update of these existing standards. For design of piers and pylons against local impact pressure loads, a pressure - area relation for bulbous bow impacts is derived.     

补给作业船舷侧碰撞损伤环境研究

基于横向补给作业中各个阶段可能出现的舷侧碰撞模式所确定的两船碰撞发生时的夹角和补给作业船受撞位置,进行横向补给作业船舷侧碰撞损伤仿真研究。分析了补给作业船的吸能特性和碰撞过程中两船的运动状态,获得了碰撞力、能量吸收和损伤变形的时序结果。该文的研究可对于开展补给作业船舷侧碰撞结构损伤评估、舷侧抗撞结构的优化设计提供指导。     

Neural network-based fuel consumption estimation for container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Due to the outstanding strength of advanced machine-learning techniques, they have become increasingly common in predictive studies in recent years, particularly in predicting ship energy performance. In constructing predictive models, prior studies have mostly employed vessels’ technical parameters to establish machine-learning algorithms. To bridge this research gap and enable wider applications, this paper presents the design of a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP ANN) as a machine-learning technique to estimate ship fuel consumption. We utilized the real operational data from 100–143 container ships to estimate fuel consumption for five different container ships grouped by size. We compared the performance of two ANN models and two multiple-regression models. Four input parameters (sailing time, speed, cargo weight, and capacity) were included in the first ANN and the first regression model, while the other two models only consider two inputs from physical function. The mean absolute percentage error of the ANN models with four inputs was the smallest and less than those in extended statistical models, demonstrating the MLP’s superiority over the statistical model. The MLP ANN model can thus be applied to confirm the effectiveness of the slow-steaming method for achieving energy efficiency.     

Analysis of ship–ship collision damage accounting for bow and side deformation interaction

This paper presents a procedure to analyse ship collisions using a simplified analytical method by taking into account the interaction between the deformation on the striking and the struck ships. Numerical simulations using the finite element software LS-DYNA are conducted to produce virtual experimental data for several ship collision scenarios. The numerical results are used to validate the method. The contributions to the total resistance from all structural components of the collided ships are analysed in the numerical simulation and the simplified method. Three types of collisions were identified based on the relative resistance of one ship to the other. They are denoted Collision Types 1 and 2, in which a relatively rigid ship collides with a deformable ship, and Collision Type 3, in which two deformable ships are involved. For Collision Types 1 and 2, estimates of the energy absorbed by the damaged ships differ by less than 8% compared to the numerical results. For Collision Type 3, the results differ by approximately 13%. The simplified method is applicable for right angle ship collision scenario, and it can be used as an alternative tool because it quickly generates acceptable results.     

On the time for the abandonment of flooded passenger ships due to collision damages

The time dependency of the survivability of passenger ships in flooding accidents leading to ship’s loss is shown to be confined within short times after the flooding initiation. RoRo ferry and cruise type ships demonstrate similar behaviour, though vessel types differ with respect to the subdivision and the flooding process. The presented research is based on numerical simulations of the flooding of two sample passenger ships in collision damages and the estimation of the probability to capsize. The systematic fast character of capsize events is shown to be primarily a consequence of the extent of hull breaches. The IMO regulatory concept for orderly abandonment of damaged passenger ships, in addition to the safe return to port regulatory provisions, are discussed in view of the present results. The timely onboard damage identification by ship’s master and the enhancement of the SOLAS survivability requirements for passenger ships appear to be the most effective operational and design measures leading to improved survivability of the ship and to enhanced safety of people onboard.     

静水中并行两船水动力干扰数值研究

为比较分析单船与两船并行航行的水动力差异,探讨静水中两船并行时漂角、船船相对位置对船体阻力、侧向力及摇首力矩的影响规律,文章基于RANS方程采用SST k-棕湍流模型,数值分析了某两船静水并行时船船相互作用。研究表明：不同漂角下两船中对中并行时,船体所受阻力均较单船航行时有所增大且受到指向两船中间的附加侧向力;当两船并行斜航的漂角相反时,同一船舶位于迎流侧较背流侧时船体受力存在一定差异;两船并行直航时,船船相对位置对船体受力有较大的影响,当两船纵向间距小于一倍船长时,船船相互作用较为显著,在不同横向间距下,船体受力随纵向间距的变化规律相同,在一定纵向间距下,船间横向间距越小船船相互作用越强。