The impact of high-speed technology on railway demand

This paper estimates a passenger railway demand function to analyse effects arising from the introduction and use of high-speed technologies. The paper reports estimates of demand elasticities with respect to price, income, quality of service and a range of exogenous characteristics. The results show that travel time savings from conventional high-speed technology have a larger impact on passenger demand than tilting train technology. The introduction of conventional high-speed technology is associated with an 8% increase in passenger railway demand. Increasing the use of either type of high-speed technology appears to induce small positive effects on demand beyond those obtained from usual traffic density increases on non-high-speed existing technology.

Financing public transport systems in Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia: challenges and prospects

Most major cities across the world today are facing an intractable challenge of financing public transport. In Kuala Lumpur for example, public transport services are somewhat poor in part because of the failure of major operators to secure ample funding. Previous funding programs implemented in the city have failed to produce a replicable model for financing public transport. Due to numerous financial problems and the dismal performance of privately owned transport firms, the State has in the recent past emerged as a key source of funding for the public transport sector in Kuala Lumpur. This article argues that, despite the insuperable challenges, prospects for the future funding of public transport in Kuala Lumpur appears to be good. The article also draws lessons from both Tokyo and Hong Kong. In order to address the funding deficit facing the public transport industry in the city it is crucial that more viable strategies and policies such as value capture and public–private sector partnerships are adopted by the urban authorities.

A new approach to evaluating on-road public transport priority projects: balancing the demand for limited road-space

Despite widespread growth in on-road public transport priority schemes, road management authorities have few tools to evaluate the impacts of these schemes on all road users. This paper describes a methodology developed in Melbourne, Australia to assist the road management authority, VicRoads, evaluate trade-offs in the use of its limited road-space for new bus and tram priority projects. The approach employs traffic micro-simulation modelling to assess road-space re-allocation impacts, travel behaviour modelling to assess changes in travel patterns and a social cost benefit framework to evaluate impacts. The evaluation considers a comprehensive range of impacts including the environmental benefits of improved public transport services. Impacts on public transport reliability improvements are also considered. Although improved bus and tram reliability is a major rationale for traffic priority its use in previous evaluations is rare. The paper critiques previous approaches, describes the proposed method and explores some of the results found in its application. A major finding is that despite a more comprehensive approach to measuring the benefits of bus and tram priority, road-space reallocation is difficult to economically justify in road networks where public transport usage is low and car usage high. Strategies involving the balanced deployment of bus and tram priority measures where the allocation of time and space to PT minimises negative traffic impacts is shown to improve the overall management of road-space. A discussion of the approach is also provided including suggestions for further methodology development.

Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services

Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings. This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.

Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data

A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets. This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

Operating costs in Norwegian toll companies: a panel data analysis

The objective of this paper is to ease the planning of new toll projects by providing estimates of operating costs, and to help us make better informed decisions about the design of toll collection systems. To do so we use panel data for Norwegian toll companies to estimate average cost functions. The main results can be summarised as follows. We provide evidence of very important unexploited economies of scale. The estimated cost curves are very steep for traffic levels below the sample mean, and become almost entirely flat over a wide range above the sample mean. A higher share of vehicles using on board units will significantly reduce average costs. Competitive tendering will significantly reduce average operating costs by as much as 25%. Our results also suggest that increased number of lanes, higher debt and passenger charging will increase average operating costs whereas average operating costs are lower for toll cordons compared with other projects.

Transport models, philosophy and language

The aim of this paper is to encourage debate about the nature of transport modelling. It does so firstly by considering the underlying philosophies of science (apparently) adopted by transport modellers, over a period of more than 50 years, from the 1950s until the present day. The conclusion is that a new philosophy of science needs to be developed, which is more in tune with how transport modelling is actually carried out (as opposed to how early transport modellers thought it ought to be carried out). It is recommended that such a new philosophy perceives transport modelling as a linguistic activity within the overall context of transport planning, which is in turn considered as a communication process. The paper outlines three main approaches that could be taken in this respect, analysing transport models from metaphorical, narrative and aesthetic perspectives. Conclusions are drawn upon the possible future research directions that might follow from the analysis provided in the paper, emphasising the importance of bringing formal philosophical thinking into transport modelling research and practice.

The principles of calibrating traffic microsimulation models

Traffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature, but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs.

Nature or nurture: why do railroads carry greater freight share in the United States than in Europe?

During the 1950s, the share of freight carried by railroads was similar and declining in both the United States and Europe. By 2000, the railroads’ share of freight (measured in ton–kilometers) had reached 38% in the United States while falling to 8% in Europe. This paper examines the reasons for the difference in rail’s share of freight in Europe and the United States. We find that almost 83% of the gap in 2000 is probably due to natural or inherent differences, principally geography, shipment distance, and commodity mix. However, 17% of the gap cannot be explained by these inherent differences and is presumably due to public policies including priority of passenger service, lack of interoperability at borders, service quality and rates, and incentives of the rail operators. We estimate that if that policy gap were closed, railroads’ share of freight in Europe would increase from 8% to 13%.

Comparative analysis of household car,motorcycle and bicycle ownership between Osaka metropolitan area,Japan and Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia

The interactions among different types of vehicle ownership including car, motorcycle and bicycle are examined by developing simultaneous vehicle ownership models in this study. Large scale person trip survey data for Osaka metropolitan area, Japan and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are used for empirical analysis. The results suggest that population density at residential area significantly and negatively affects car ownership for both areas, and that the effects are larger for Osaka metropolitan area than for Kuala Lumpur. Also, bicycle ownership becomes higher at higher population density area for Osaka area, while higher at lower population density area for Kuala Lumpur, which represents the different usage patterns of bicycle between the two areas.

Short-term shift setting and manpower supplying under stochastic demands for air cargo terminals

A good air cargo terminal manpower supply plan helps terminals deal efficiently with their cargos and reduces their operating costs. To design a good air cargo terminal manpower supply plan, a terminal has to consider not only its operating costs, but also the uncertainty of the manpower demand in actual operations. However, most air cargo terminals in Taiwan currently depend on staff experience with a fixed demand when establishing the manpower supply plan, which is neither effective nor efficient. We have developed two stochastic-demand manpower supply plan models for air cargo terminals that can resolve stochastic demands occurring in practice. The objectives of both models are to minimize the total man-hour cost, subject to the related operating constraints. The models are formulated as integer/mixed integer linear programs. To evaluate the two stochastic-demand models under stochastic demands, we have also developed two deterministic-demand manpower supply plan models, by suitably modifying two stochastic-demand models, respectively, and an evaluation method. Here, we perform a case study using real operating data from a Taiwan air cargo terminal. The preliminary results are good, showing that the models could be useful for planning air cargo terminal manpower supply.

Travel mode choice: affected by objective or subjective determinants?

This contribution presents theoretical considerations concerning the connections between life situation, lifestyle, choice of residential location and travel behaviour, as well as empirical results of structural equation models. The analyses are based on data resulting from a survey in seven study areas in the region of Cologne. The results indicate that lifestyles influence mode choice, although slightly, even when life situation is controlled for. The influence of life situation on mode choice exceeds the influence of lifestyle. The influence that lifestyle, and in part also life situation, has on mode choice is primarily mediated by specific location attitudes and location decisions that influence mode choice, respectively. Here objective spatial conditions as well as subjective location attitudes are important.

Using census aggregates to proxy for household characteristics: an application to vehicle ownership

Traditionally, researchers studying transportation choice have used data either acquired from household surveys or broad, region-wide aggregates. At the disaggregate level, researchers usually do not have access to important variables or observations. This study investigates the potential usefulness of a proxy approach to modeling discrete choice vehicle ownership: substituting narrow area-based aggregate proxies for missing micro-level explanatory variables by accessing large, publicly maintained datasets. We use data from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS) and the contemporaneous U.S. Census file to compare three models of vehicle ownership, drawing area-wide proxies from increasing levels of aggregation. The models with proxies are compared with a parallel model that uses only survey data. The results indicate that the proxy models are preferred in terms of model selection criteria, and predict vehicle ownership as well or better than the survey model. Parameter values produced by the proxy method effectively approximate those returned by household survey models in terms of coefficient sign and significance, particularly when the aggregate variables are representative of their household-level counterparts. The proxy model with the narrowest level of aggregation achieved the best fit, coefficient precision, and percentage of correct prediction.

Institutional constraints on transport policymaking: the case of company cars in Israel

Transportation analysis emphasizes the necessity to internalize the transport externalities of car usage through taxation. Yet taxation decisions are often made with non-transport goals in mind. In such cases, transport policies are made ‘by the way.’ This paper examines such a case: Israel’s taxation policy on company cars. It shows that current taxation policies result in increasing numbers of company cars and growing numbers of transport users who are not sensitive to the marginal cost of car use and make excessive use of the car. As a result, a significant portion of Travel Demand Management (TDM) measures cannot affect this group. The Israeli case of company car tax reform demonstrates the problematic effect of a policy that does not take its overall consequences on other policy fields into account and thereby impairs efforts to reduce the negative impacts of the transport system. Also, it demonstrates the importance of institutional aspects of transport policymaking.

Shifting towards environment-friendly modes: profiling travelers using Q-methodology

Due to a variety of reasons, the previous century is characterized by an extraordinary growth in car use that has continued into the current century. This has resulted in serious environmental repercussions. Despite technological advancements, the externalities remain an ecological threat that can not be discarded by policy makers. Therefore, it is essential that policy makers focus on reducing car use and on stimulating the shift towards more environment-friendly transport modes. In this study, Q-methodology is adopted as the technique to segment people, and to ascertain which approaches and determinants matter to medium distance travel. Segmentation is important, as policy measures will be more efficient and effective if they are fine-tuned on specific target groups. The analysis revealed that four discourses preponderate the paradigm of environmentally sustainable transport: travelers who use public transport as a dominant alternative, car-dependent travelers, travelers with a positive perception of using public transport, and travelers with a preference for car use. Concerning rational, economic motives, individuals evaluate travel time reliability as most important. To increase the reliability policy makers should consider the use of separate bus lanes and traffic light manipulation. In addition, public transport can be made even more attractive, when costs of cars are made more variable by road or congestion charging. When the s motives are discussed, the differences between the different groups of travelers were more pronounced. Next to increasing the benefits of using public transport, policy makers should also pay attention to removing psycho-social barriers.

The influence of built environment to the trends in commuting journeys in the Netherlands

In this paper we describe commuting trends in the Netherlands in the past decade and examine the influence of urban form and travel accessibility on commuting journeys over time on the basis of data from the Dutch National Travel Survey. Exploratory analysis is performed to identify changes in commuting participation, departure time, commuting time, commuting distance and the modal split. Regression analysis and choice models are used to examine the influence of the built environment on commuting parameters over time. The results indicate that urban form has consistently influenced the parameters of commuting journey in the Netherlands in the last 10 years. However, the trend of the influence is unique for each commuting model. Some influences have become less significant in the last decade and some have become stronger.

Examining the influence of multidestination service orientation on transit service productivity: a multivariate analysis

Between 1990 and 2000, U.S. transit agencies added service and increased ridership, but the ridership increase failed to keep pace with the service increase. The result was a decline in service effectiveness (or productivity). This marks the continuation of a long-running and often-studied trend. The scholarly literature attributes this phenomenon, at least in part, to transit agency decisions to decentralize their service rather than focus on serving the traditional CBD market. Many scholars argue that a decentralized service orientation is both ineffective and inefficient because it attracts few riders and requires large per-rider subsidies. This research tests whether a non-traditional, decentralized service orientation, called multidestination service, results in reduced service productivity. Contrary to what the literature suggests, we find that MSAs whose transit agencies pursued a multidestination service orientation did not experience lower productivity. These results indicate that policies that have encouraged the growth of decentralized transit services have not necessarily been detrimental to the industry.

The effect of financial constraints on the optimal design of public transport services

Recent experience with the design of bus services in Santiago, Chile, seems to confirm Jansson's (1980) assertion regarding observed planned bus frequency and size being too low and too large, respectively. We offer an explanation based upon the relation between cost coverage, pricing and optimal design variables. We recall that average social cost decreases with patronage, which generates an optimal monetary fare below the average operators' cost, inducing an optimal subsidy. Then we compare optimal frequency and bus size—those that minimize total social costs—with those that minimize operators' costs only. We show that an active constraint on operators' expenses is equivalent to diminish the value of users' time in the optimal design problem. Inserting this property back in the optimal pricing scheme, we conclude that a self-financial constraint, if active, always provokes an inferior solution, a smaller frequency and, under some circumstances, larger than optimal buses.