Access of landocked and geographically-disadvantaged states to the fisheries resources of the economic exclusion zone (EEZ) under the New Convention on the law of the Sea

Petroleum and related goods account for an enormous share of international maritime trade. For the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, imports of petroleum and related products are a vital connection to foreign suppliers. This paper illustrates cartographically the geographic structure of imports of three major petroleum-related commodities—crude petroleum, refined petroleum products, and natural gas—and their changes in the 1980s. Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient analyses reveal a modest deconcentration of crude petroleum within the US port system, an increasing concentration of petroleum products, and a relatively volatile geography of natural gas imports.     

The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

A connectivity reliability-cost approach for path selection in the maritime transportation of China’s crude oil imports

The focus of this paper is the selection of paths for the maritime transportation of crude oil. In addition to transportation cost, the nodes in a maritime transportation network are always affected by extreme events. Therefore, connectivity reliability must be considered during path selection. In this paper, uncertainty variables are introduced to describe the connectivity reliability of nodes under the influence of extreme events, and an uncertain bi-objective programming model with connectivity reliability maximization and transportation cost minimization as objectives is established for path selection. China’s maritime transportation network for crude oil imports is used as a case study to validate the model, the effects of variations in the model parameters on path selection, transportation cost and connectivity reliability are discussed in the case study. The research results provide a basis on which for government decision makers to better plan crude oil transportation strategies.     

世界石油市场和中国海运量现状及发展预测

概述了国际原油生产消耗和贸易、进出口主要国家与地区及海运量航线基本情况,进行了国际成品油海运市场分析和中国原油进口量与国内成品油海运量预测,以期在总体上为中国石油多渠道稳定供应安全和港航油运企业发展决策提供借鉴。     

Improving maritime inventory routing: application to a Brazilian petroleum case

The crude oil offloading and supply problem (COSP) is a type of operation maritime inventory routing (MIR) problem encountered by petroleum companies. In COSP, the company not only is responsible for the ship scheduling to carry the crude oil from production sites to discharge ports but also must maintain inventory levels at both ports (production and consumption) between safety operational bounds to avoid disruptions in its crude oil production and/or refining processes. We show how to improve significantly the decision-making process in a Brazilian petroleum company using a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to represent COSP. Comparison tests with a current ship-scheduling method adopted in the company indicated that the use of the MILP model increased the transportation efficiency and reduced costs by 20% on average. In addition to the quantitative gains, the use of a MILP model to solve COSP has succeeded when encountering real-life events, such as variation in production or consumption rates, berth unavailability, and changes in the storage capacities at ports.     

原油运输市场分析

分别概述了世界与中国的石油资源储量分布、可持续开采年数、不同地区的生产量与消耗量、以及产销平衡状况,由此派生的全球不同地区原油、成品油的进出口量、海运量与主要的海运航线,我国石油进口的主要来源和途径;分析了油轮的船型和船龄的分布,进而预测了世界上几种主要原油轮运力的供应、需求、船价与运价的发展趋势。这些分析和预测可以作为制定油轮发展的技术政策、战略、规划等宏观决策时的参考。     

4 000 hp全回转多用途工作船的设计特点

多用途工作船作为一种为海上工程提供服务的工程船舶,已经成为海上石油和天然气勘探和开采工程中不可缺少的一个组成部分.文章以4 000 hp全回转多用途工作船为例,简要介绍其主要作业功能、基本性能以及结构设计的主要特点.     

How do the new shipping routes affect Asian liquefied natural gas markets and economy? Case of the Northern Sea Route and Panama Canal expansion

This study focuses on the expected impact of Northern Sea Route (NSR) usage and the Panama Canal (PC) expansion on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports of Asian countries, from not only the macroeconomic viewpoint but also diversification of the supplying countries. First, the amounts saved from shipping costs due to these events are estimated, based on scenarios on the navigable period of the NSR, transit fee of the NSR considering the exchange rate between the Russian ruble and US dollar, and bunker fuel price. Second, a spatial general equilibrium model based on macroeconomic theory is applied to predict changes in LNG trade patterns and measure economic impacts due to the reduction of shipping costs. Finally, the impacts of NSR usage as well as the PC expansion on LNG imports of Asian countries are discussed based on the calculations. The results show that diversification of supplying countries for LNG imports can be observed, especially in Japan, the largest LNG importer in the world, and other Asian countries are secondarily affected by changes in Japan’s import pattern, with limited impacts on these countries’ national economies.     

Modelling with joint choice of ports and countries of origin and destination: application to Colombian ports

Literature has focused on studying port choice independently or as an element of a supply chain without considering the joint selection with the country of origin/destination of the imports/exports. However, the characteristics and location of a port may make it more attractive to mobilise more freight from/to some particular countries rather than others, making the port choice decision dependent on the country of origin/destination of the cargo. This article proposes advanced econometric models to evaluate simultaneously port choice and the country of origin/destination choice for Colombian imports and exports. Findings suggest that for imports and exports domestic freight rate is the most important variable for the joint choice process. Also, for exports, maritime transit time is more relevant than for imports, while for the frequency of shipping lines the opposite is true. The existence of a trade agreement and the gross domestic product per capita also have a significant influence on the election of a country for exports/imports.     

“国油国运”的围城与突围

站在国家整体利益上，他们各自的坚持宛如“医得眼前疮．剜却心头肉”。 2012年．中国已成为世界第二大石油消费国和进口国，拥有和控制油轮船队规模位居世界第三。然而．与之形成鲜明对比的是，巨大石油进口量与中国油轮船队运输比例的失衡。那么，这种失衡背后到底是何因素在作怪？     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

The ports of the Russian Far East: a management strategy

The recent breakupof the former Soviet Union and the Russian Republic's movement towards a market economy wil require a considerable improvement and expansion of present port facilities in order to handle increasing cargo throughputs effectively. The Russian Far East is expected to increase trade dramatically through imports of foreign goods, exors of natural resources from Siberia and container traffic traversing teh Trans-Siberian landbridge. The ports of the region will be competing with each other to atract foreing investment and to increase central government assistance in order to facilitate development. This article examines;(1) the more important ports of the Far East and the problems they face as they compete to atract investment; (2) the establishment of a Regional Port Authority as a possible management alternative; (3)advantages of a Port Authority in developing the region' ports and fostering future growth. By analysing these data, a management and development strategy can be formulated for the optimum utilization of present resources and the benefi of reginal modernization and development.     

中委广东石化项目原油码头工程平面设计创新

通过具体工程实例,结合码头营运标准、自然条件(特别是波浪条件)以及物理模型试验等,论述了30万吨级原油码头采用岛式防波堤掩护式布置、岛式防波堤平面布局、高程确定等方面的设计创新内容,为波浪条件恶劣的深水开敞海域建设有掩护式大型码头提供了切实、可操作的工程设计经验。     

U.S. import/export container flow modeling and disruption analysis

International containerized freight movement is a vital part of the supply chain for many companies, and a critical element of moving consumer goods to points of retail sale within the U.S. Containerized imports also present a clear security concern (e.g., terrorists attempting to ship “dirty bombs,” chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons, into the U.S. in a shipping container). The goal of the research presented here is to create a modeling tool for analyzing flows of U.S. imports and exports of containerized freight, and the potential changes in those flows under a variety of conditions (e.g., port disruptions, extensive security-related delays, etc.). Our focus is on movements through maritime container ports, and not overland movements between the U.S. and Canada or Mexico.The network model, referred to as the System for Import/Export Routing and Recovery Analysis (SIERRA), represents container movements between the U.S. and 46 other countries that account for the vast majority of U.S. imports and exports. The SIERRA model is a network equilibrium model that predicts flows between foreign countries and North American ports, the total volumes handled (import and export) by each port, the modal volumes (truck and rail) moving domestically into and out of each port, and volumes between each port and a set of transportation analysis zones within the U.S.     

港口石化码头清管工艺技术及应用

石化仓储企业利用港口码头中转的物料品种日益增多,为增加输送管线的灵活性,需采用清管扫线的方式对工艺管线进行清空作业。介绍了目前常用的清管作业方式,并结合工程实例对清管过程中气体介质的压力和流量计算模型进行分析,其计算结果可作为空分设备选型的依据。     

Panama Canal expansion: fuel economy and logistical risk

Since cargo capacity increases faster than fuel consumption, the significantly larger capacity fleets which will accompany expansion of the Panama Canal will introduce additional fuel economies and cost savings. Enabling larger, more fuel-efficient vessels to carry cargo the entire distance from Asia to US east-coast ports allows vessel operators to realize significant and meaningful savings compared with the alternatives of using smaller Panamax vessels for the whole distance, or sending the cargo over the US land bridge by train or truck. Fuel savings are quantified along with the monetary savings based on various assumptions for the price of fuel. These savings are dramatic and will increase directly with the price of crude petroleum. Finally, microeconomic theory is deployed to determine how cost savings will be distributed between shipping customers and vessel operators.     

LNG/LPG船耐低温材料的焊接发展综述

液化天然气和液化石油气需要在低温条件下储存和运输,因此液舱(液罐)材料的耐低温性能和焊接性是保证结构安全的关键。文中以殷瓦钢、5083铝合金和304不锈钢为例,介绍了LNG船与LPG船使用的耐低温材料的种类和物理性能,在此基础上分析了这三种材料的焊接性,总结了殷瓦钢、5083铝合金和304不锈钢的焊接研究进展及发展趋势。     

Policy making and planning for the port sector: paradigms in conflict

Policy making is a complex and diverse process—particularly in relation to the provision and location of port and port related infrastructure. The planning stage of port infrastructure, or indeed transport planning more generally, may be finalized only to experience policy failure as implementation of the planned facility cannot be successfully completed. When this occurs planning and implementation failure is invariably perceived to be driven by a political agenda and it is argued that 'politics gets in the way'—that politics 'distorts' a scientifically rational planning process. Is it the case that politics 'gets in the way'? Or that politics distorts a technical and scientific process? Or is it the case that planning constitutes only one part, but an integral one, of the policy process—a process that is inherently political? And if that is the case, can we legitimately separate the planning process from that of policy making? This paper discusses the fundamental differences between the planning and policy-making processes. It argues that transport planning is one element in a broader process of policy making which incorporates political and other social/economic/environmental elements. It will argue that planning is a fundamental part of the policy-making process and, if successful completion is to be achieved, it cannot be divorced from that process. The paper will provide a conceptual framework which will incorporate these apparently conflictual activities. This model, if adopted, is likely to enhance both the planning and policy-making processes.     

焊缝对环肋圆柱壳振动声辐射的影响

将结构固有频率作为中间变量,研究焊接残余应力、结构固有频率和结构声辐射特性之间的关系。首先,分析焊接残余应力与结构固有频率之间的关系,并通过实验进行验证,结果显示焊接残余应力使结构固有频率发生了显著改变。然后,对固有频率—声辐射功率的灵敏度进行理论推导,并运用有限元法结合边界元法建立数值模型,计算该模型在指定范围内的固有频率—声辐射功率灵敏度,结果证明结构声辐射功率会随着固有频率的变化而发生显著变化。最后,综合分析焊接残余应力与结构声辐射之间的关系。结果表明,研究复杂结构的振动声辐射等动力学特性时,焊接残余应力是不能忽视的影响因素。     

Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis

Although the Suez Canal is the most important man-made waterway in the world, rivaled perhaps only by the Panama Canal, little research has been done into forecasting its traffic flows. This paper uses both univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural network models to forecast the maritime traffic flows in the Suez Canal which are expressed in tons. One of the important strengths of the ARIMA modelling approach is the ability to go beyond the basic univariate model by considering interventions, calendar variations, outliers, or other real aspects of typically observed time series. On the other hand, neural nets have received a great deal of attention over the past few years. They are being used in the areas of prediction and classification, areas where regression models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used. The models obtained in this paper provide useful insight into the behaviour of maritime traffic flows since the reopening of the Canal in 1975—following an 8-year closure during the Arab-Israeli wars (1967-1973)—till 1998. The paper also compares the performance of ARIMA models with that of neural networks on an example of a large monthly dataset.