Built environment impacts on walking for transport in Brisbane,Australia

This study examines the association between urban form and walking for transport in Brisbane, Australia based on both panel and cross-sectional data. Cross-sectional data are used to determine whether urban form was associated with walking for transport in 2011. Panel data are used to evaluate whether changes in the built environment altered walking behaviour between 2009 and 2011. Results from the cross-sectional data suggest that individuals are significantly more likely to be walkers if they live in an area with a well-connected street network and an accessible train station. The longitudinal analysis confirms these relationships; there also was however, a significant impact of travel attitudes and perceptions on walking behaviour. The findings suggest that the built environment continues to be an important factor to encourage walking; however, interventions are also required to change social norms in order to increase the receptiveness for and participation in walking.     

Calibrating a social-force-based pedestrian walking model based on maximum likelihood estimation

Although various theories have been adopted to develop reliable pedestrian walking models, a limited effort has been made to calibrate them rigorously based on individual trajectories. Most researchers have validated their models by comparing observed and estimated traffic flow parameters such as speed, density, and flow rate, or replaced the validation by visual confirmation of some well-known phenomena such as channelization and platooning. The present study adopted maximum likelihood estimation to calibrate a social-force model based on the observed walking trajectories of pedestrians. The model was assumed to be made up of five components (i.e., inertia, desired direction, leader–follower relationship, collision avoidance, and random error), and their corresponding coefficients represented relative sensitivity. The model also included coefficients for individual-specific characteristics and for a distance-decay relationship between a pedestrian and his/her leaders or colliders. The calibration results varied with the two density levels adopted in the present study. In the case of high density, significant coefficient estimates were found with respect to both the leader–follower relationship and collision avoidance. Collision avoidance did not affect the pedestrian’s walking behavior for the low-density case due to channelization. The distance limit was confirmed, within which a pedestrian is affected by neighbors. At the low-density level, by comparison with women, men were found to more actively follow leaders, and pedestrians walking in a party were found to be less sensitive to the motion of leaders at the high-density level.     

An assessment of the benefits of the walking school bus in Christchurch,New Zealand

A Walking School Bus involves parents or other adults escorting a group of children on a set route to school. The first one was established in 1996 in Canada. They can now be found in a variety of countries, including New Zealand. Many of the benefits associated with them are based on the general benefits of affecting a modal shift away from cars in favour of walking. However, there is still relatively little known about the less quantifiable benefits of them, and there has been some suggestion that they can adversely affect children’s independent mobility. This research examined the perceived benefits of Walking School Buses by interviewing people involved in the day to running of the scheme in Christchurch, New Zealand. The results suggest that walking school buses have many social benefits and that if anything; they encourage children’s independent mobility.     

The role of perceived environment,neighbourhood characteristics,and attitudes in walking behaviour: evidence from a rapidly developing city in China

Transportation - The associations between objective and subjective dimensions of the built environment and walking behaviour have been examined extensively in existing studies. However, the...     

Comparison on travel scheduling between driving and walking trips by habitual car users

Research on walking behavior has become increasingly more important in the field of transportation in the past decades. However, the study of the factors influencing the scheduling decisions related to walking trips and the exploration of the differences between travel modes has not been conducted yet. This paper presents a comparison of the scheduling and rescheduling decisions associated with car driving trips and walking trips by habitual car users using a data set collected in Valencia (Spain) in 2010. Bivariate probit models with sample selection are used to accommodate the influence of pre-planning on the decision to execute a travel as pre-planned or not. The explicative variables considered are: socio-economic characteristics of respondents, travel characteristics, and facets of the activity executed at origin and at destination including the scheduling decisions associated with them. The results demonstrate that a significant correlation exists between the choices of pre-planning and rescheduling for both types of trips. Whether for car driving or walking trips, the scheduling decisions associated with the activity at origin and at destination are the most important explicative factors of the trip scheduling and rescheduling decisions. However, the rescheduling of trips is mainly influenced by modifications in the activity at destination. Some interesting differences arise regarding the rescheduling decision processes between travel modes: if pre-planned, walking trips are less likely to be modified than car driving trips, showing a more rigid rescheduling behavior.     

Accessibility analysis of risk severity

This study measures severity of network disruptions in the Minneapolis–St. Paul region by comparing the cumulative opportunity accessibility before-and-after removing freeway segments. Accessibility to jobs and accessibility to resident workers are measured respectively in the morning and evening peak hours. It is shown that the links with more severe consequences of disruption tend to be near or at freeway interchanges. Betweenness helps explain risk severity.     

Walking to the bus: perceived versus actual walking distance to bus stops for older adults

The walking trip from an origin or destination to a bus stop or transit station can be a barrier to riding transit for older adults (over age 60) who may walk more slowly than others or experience declining physical mobility. This article examines the relationship between transit ridership and proximity to fixed-route transit stations using survey data for older adults in Buffalo and Erie County, New York. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics—including age, sex, race, income, possessing a driver’s license, frequency of leaving home, and personal mobility limitations—are tested but do not display, in bi-variate analysis, statistically significant differences for transit riders versus non-transit riders. However, features of the built environment—including distance (actual and perceived) between home and transit stop, transit service level, population density, number of street intersections, metropolitan location, and neighborhood crime (property and violent) rate—display statistically significant differences for transit riders versus non-transit riders. Both objective and perceived walking distances to access fixed-route transit show statistically significant differences between transit riders and non-transit riders. Average walking distance from home to transit for non-transit riders—who mostly live in suburbs—is three times greater than average walking distance between home and the nearest transit stop for transit riders—who mostly live in the central city. When asked how near a bus stop is to their homes, transit riders slightly overestimate the actual distance, while non-transit riders underestimate the distance.     

New evidence on walking distances to transit stops: identifying redundancies and gaps using variable service areas

The percentage of the population being served by a transit system in a metropolitan region is a key system performance measure but depends heavily on the definition of service area. Observing existing service areas can help identify transit system gaps and redundancies. In the public transit industry, buffers at 400 m (0.25 miles) around bus stops and 800 m (0.5 miles) around rail stations are commonly used to identify the area from which most transit users will access the system by foot. This study uses detailed OD survey information to generate service areas that define walking catchment areas around transit services in Montreal, Canada. The 85th percentile walking distance to bus transit service is found to be around 524 m for home-based trip origins, 1,259 m for home-based commuter rail trip origins. Yet these values are found to vary based on our analysis using two statistical models. Walking distances vary based on route and trip qualities (such as type of transit service, transfers and wait time), as well as personal, household, and neighbourhood characteristics. Accordingly, service areas around transit stations should vary based on the service offered and attributes of the people and places served. The generated service areas derived from the generalized statistical model are then used to identify gaps and redundancies at the system and route level using Montreal region as an example. This study can be of benefit to transport engineers and planners trying to maximize transit service coverage in a region while avoiding oversupply of service.     

运输企业经营风险规避对策

从现代管理学角度来看,风险是绝对存在的,任何一个单位和个人都是不可能完全避免的,对于运输企业来说,最突出的表现就是交通事故、货运风险、管理风险、履约风险.     

Joint inventory-location problem under the risk of probabilistic facility disruptions

This paper studies a reliable joint inventory-location problem that optimizes facility locations, customer allocations, and inventory management decisions when facilities are subject to disruption risks (e.g., due to natural or man-made hazards). When a facility fails, its customers may be reassigned to other operational facilities in order to avoid the high penalty costs associated with losing service. We propose an integer programming model that minimizes the sum of facility construction costs, expected inventory holding costs and expected customer costs under normal and failure scenarios. We develop a Lagrangian relaxation solution framework for this problem, including a polynomial-time exact algorithm for the relaxed nonlinear subproblems. Numerical experiment results show that this proposed model is capable of providing a near-optimum solution within a short computation time. Managerial insights on the optimal facility deployment, inventory control strategies, and the corresponding cost constitutions are drawn.     

Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators for the performance of transport systems and is measured in various ways. This paper synthesizes both reliability concepts: traffic breakdown, the indicator of the instability of travel times, is treated as the risk, whereas travel time variability, the indicator of the uncertainty of travel times, is considered as the consequence of this risk. An analytical formula, using risk assessment technique, explicitly expresses the cost of travel time unreliability as the sum of the products of the consequences (i.e. variability) and the corresponding probabilities of breakdown. It provides a novel measure of travel time reliability and is applicable in network performance evaluations. An empirical example based on a large dataset of freeway traffic flow data from loop detectors shows that the developed travel time reliability measure is both intuitively logical and consistent.     

Airline industry deregulation and changes in systematic risk

Deregulation of U.S. Airline Industry may have lowered systematic risk because pricing freedom and route flexibility improved airline management reaction to various economic conditions. Reduced systematic risk offers lower cost of equity capital for the industry as a whole as well as for individual carriers. Previous research has had mixed results in identifying a relationship between deregulation and airline industry cost of capital. This study plots airline industry Beta coefficients across the years 1963 to 1987 and clears up previously conflicting research findings. Beta coefficients had been falling since the fuel crisis of 1974 and continued to fall through 1980. Fluctuations since deregulation have been relatively minor and systematic risk has leveled off at a significantly lower value than before deregulation. Studies which concentrate on the fluctuation in Beta since 1978 are dependent on the exact time period of analysis, and their conclusions that deregulation raised or lowered systematic risk are likewise suspect. A broader view of systematic risk changes in the deregulatory era shows airline Betas peaking from 1971 to 1973 and a gradual decrease as deregulation was being discussed, implemented, and legally mandated. This gradual decline from 1974 to 1980 may be attributed to such factors as fuel prices, interest rates, general inflation as well as deregulation. In any case systematic risk of the U.S. Airline industry has been lower since deregulation than in decades before.     

风险管理在降低地铁造价中的作用

地铁建设中的风险是由地铁项目的技术经济特点决定的,如何加强地铁建设中的风险管理、降低工程造价、确保建设目标的实现,是一个迫切需要解决的问题.文章论述了地铁建设中的风险管理基本流程,包括风险识别、风险分析和评估、制定风险管理对策以及对风险管理的监控;并重点论述了加强设计风险和施工风险管理对降低地铁工程造价的重要作用.     

关于隧道及地下工程建设风险管理的实施意见

文章重点论述了隧道及地下工程建设风险管理的主要难点、风险分类及影响要素、风险管理的主要环节及组织形式,并提出了很有创意的几点建议,具有很大参考价值。     

Decision support for risk assessment of mid-air collisions via population-based measures

Specifying proximity warning functions for aircraft in managed airspace has received considerable attention. However, similar functions for aircraft operating in unmanaged airspace have received comparatively little analysis despite the fact that these functions are stressed to a greater physical degree, and perhaps more frequently, than in managed airspace. The mid-air collision hazard and its associated risk are re-examined from both an historical and a systematic engineering modelling viewpoint. Historic measures of this transport risk in managed airspace have been based on fatalities normalized by flight hours or flight movements. However some of these data may not be available in unmanaged airspace. Another approach to measurement directs attention to populations at risk where several measures are now well known: collective risk, individual risk and the frequency of occurrence of the hazards that give rise to such risk. A decision support methodology is presented that relates both transport and population-based approaches. A cohesive and consistent set of aspired goals for various stakeholder groups can be set taking into account the different stakeholder needs. A case study is drawn from historic mid-air collision data to illustrate the process. A consistent basis for national-level policy decisions harmonised with proactive engineering design requirements is achieved. The strengths, limitations and implications of this approach for engineering design purposes are discussed.     

Location planning for transit-based evacuation under the risk of service disruptions

The effectiveness of transit-based emergency evacuation highly depends on the location of pick-up facilities, resource allocation, and management. These facilities themselves are often subject to service disruptions during or after the emergency. This paper proposes a reliable emergency facility location model that determines both pre-emergency facility location planning and the evacuation operations afterwards, while facilities are subject to the risk of disruptions. We analyze how evacuation resource availability leverages individual evacuees’ response to service disruptions, and show how equilibrium of the evacuee arrival process could be reached at a functioning pick-up facility. Based on this equilibrium, an optimal resource allocation strategy is found to balance the tradeoff between the evacuees’ risks and the evacuation agency’s operation costs. This leads to the development of a compact polynomial-size linear integer programming formulation that minimizes the total expected system cost from both pre-emergency planning (e.g., facility set-up) and the evacuation operations (e.g., fleet management, transportation, and exposure to hazardous surroundings) across an exponential number of possible disruption scenarios. We also show how the model can be flexibly used to plan not only pre-disaster evacuation but also post-disaster rescue actions. Numerical experiments and an empirical case study for three coastal cities in the State of Mississippi (Biloxi, Gulfport, and D’lberville) are conducted to study the performance of the proposed models and to draw managerial insights.     

Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Transportation - Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused...     

高速公路危险品运输环境风险评价及应急对策

以鹤岗至哈尔滨高速公路伊春至绥化段工程为实例,运用概率估算法预测了运营期危险品运输污染风险发生概率,对危险品运输环境风险做出了评价分析,并提出了防护和应急措施。