Effects of different factors on drivers’ guidance compliance behaviors under road condition information shown on VMS

It is generally accepted that compliance behavior is affected by many factors. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of diverse factors on drivers’ guidance compliance behaviors under road condition information shown on graphic variable message sign (VMS), and based on this to find out a better information release mode. The involved data were obtained from questionnaire survey, and ordinal regression was used to analyze the casual relation between guidance compliance behavior and its influencing factors. Based on an overall analysis of conditions in driver’s route choice, an accurate method was proposed to calculate the compliance rate. The model testing information indicated that ordinal regression model with complementary log–log being the link function was appropriate to quantify the relation between the compliance rate and the factors. The estimation results showed that age, driving years, average annual mileage, monthly income, driving style, occupation, the degree of trust in VMS, the familiarity with road network and the route choice style were significant determinants of guidance compliance behavior. This paper also compared two different guidance modes which were ordinary guidance mode (M1) and predicted guidance mode (M2) through simulation. The average speed fluctuations and average travel time supported that M2 had better effect in improving traffic flow and balancing traffic load and resource. Some detailed suggestions of releasing guidance information were proposed with the explanation by flow-density curve and variation of traffic flows. These findings are the foundation to design and improve guidance systems by assessing guidance effect and modifying guidance algorithm.     

Driver response to variable message sign information in London

Variable message signs (VMS) have been installed in London to notify motorists of planned events and current network problems. To guide investment and operational decisions an understanding is required of the impacts of VMS information. This paper presents the results of a study of driver response to VMS information. The study employed questionnaires to investigate the effect of different messages on route choice. A statistical analysis of stated intention questionnaire data enabled logistic regression models to be developed relating the probability of route diversion to driver, journey and message characteristics. The resultant models indicate that the location of the incident and the message content are important factors influencing the probability of diversion. A survey of drivers' actual responses to a message activation showed that only one third of drivers saw the information presented to them and few of these drivers diverted, although many found the information useful. Only one-fifth of the number of drivers diverted compared to that expected from the results of the stated intention questionnaire. It is thought that the low response rate achieved for the stated intention survey will have exaggerated drivers' responsiveness to VMS messages. Interestingly, survey data for another UK city with a newly installed VMS system showed that the number of drivers diverting due to VMS information was very similar to that expected from the results of the stated intention questionnaire. It is suggested that the use of London's VMS signs to display warnings of disruptions expected on future dates may be reducing their effectiveness as a channel for more urgent warnings.     

ITS applications for work zones

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in construction work zones to disseminate traffic information has increased significantly in recent years, mainly with the use of Variable Message Signs (VMS). VMS are used based on the assumption that informed drivers will make better travel decisions, thereby reducing congestion. However, the extent of change in driver behavior is difficult to predict prior to ITS deployment. This difficulty leads to the larger problem of justifying investment in ITS. This article proposes an ITS deployment decision support tool using micro‐simulation. The approach determines the required diversion effectiveness of a work zone ITS deployment using VMS. The methodology was tested using the Glenmore Trail/Elbow Drive/5^th Street interchange project (GE5) in Calgary, Canada. The results indicate that the proposed approach will assist agencies in justifying ITS investment by exhibiting the potential resultant societal benefits.     

Effectiveness of using variable message signs to disseminate dynamic traffic information: Evidence from field trails in European cities

Variable message signs (VMS) can provide up‐to‐date traffic information and guidance to drivers through electronic signs at the roadside. The paper draws together the results from VMS field trials conducted in nine cities as part of European Union‐sponsored research projects carried out between 1994 and 1999. The projects followed common guidelines in carrying out field trial evaluations, which has enabled generalized findings to be made on the impacts of the different VMS applications. The main emphasis in the paper is on drivers' reactions to VMS and the impacts of VMS on road network efficiency. Results are reported for four different types of traffic information. For incident messages, it is not only the severity of the problem reported that influences the level of diversions, but also other factors such as the specific location mentioned and the availability of viable alternative routes to avoid the problem location. For route guidance information, it is demonstrated that substantial diversions occur when the route advice differs from that given normally. For continuous information describing the traffic state on a major route, information increases the use of the major route and reduces use of alternative routes if there are no traffic problems reported on the major route. Travel time information was well regarded by drivers and found to be effective in inducing route changes. In general, the deployments of VMS to inform drivers of traffic conditions have proved successful in terms of improving network travel times and reducing environmental impacts. Whilst such changes have been relatively small, driver perception of the benefits is much higher. This is potentially very significant in terms of the role that VMS can play in the development of integrated transport strategies, as the provision of information may encourage greater acceptance of a range of demand management measures.     

An impact analysis of traffic image information system on driver travel choice

A driver is one of the main components in a transportation system that influences the effectiveness of any active demand management (ADM) strategies. As such, the understanding on driver behavior and their travel choice is crucial to ensure the successful implementation of ADM strategies in alleviating traffic congestion, especially in city centres. This study aims to investigate the impact of traffic information dissemination via traffic images on driver travel choice and decision. A relationship of driver travel choice with respect to their perceived congestion level is developed by an integrated framework of genetic algorithm–fuzzy logic, being a new attempt in driver behavior modeling. Results show that drivers consider changing their travel choice when the perceived congestion level is medium, in which changing departure time and diverting to alternative roads are two popular choices. If traffic congestion escalates further, drivers are likely to cancel their trip. Shifting to public transport system is the least likely choice for drivers in an auto-dependent city. These findings are important and useful to engineers as they are required to fully understand driver (user) sensitivity to traffic conditions so that relevant active travel demand management strategies could be implemented successfully. In addition, engineers could use the relationships established in this study to predict drivers’ response under various traffic conditions when carrying out modeling and impact studies.     

Impact of traveler advisory systems on driving speed: some new evidence

This paper explores the effects of driving behavior using in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle traffic advisory information relating to adverse weather and incident conditions. A full-size, fixed-based driving simulator is used to collect data on drivers’ speed behavior under four different advisory-information conditions: in-vehicle messages, out-of-vehicle messages, both types of messages, and no messages. The findings of this study suggest an interesting phenomenon in that, while messages are significant in reducing speeds in the area of adverse conditions, drivers tend to compensate for this speed reduction by increasing speeds downstream when such adverse conditions do not exist. As a result, the net safety effects of such message systems are ambiguous.     

Behavior-based consistency-seeking models as deployment alternatives to dynamic traffic assignment models

This paper proposes a behavior-based consistency-seeking (BBCS) model as an alternative to the dynamic traffic assignment paradigm for the real-time control of traffic systems under information provision. The BBCS framework uses a hybrid probabilistic–possibilistic model to capture the day-to-day evolution and the within-day dynamics of individual driver behavior. It considers heterogeneous driver classes based on the broad behavioral characteristics of drivers elicited from surveys and past studies on driver behavior. Fuzzy logic and if–then rules are used to model the various driver behavior classes. The approach enables the modeling of information characteristics and driver response to be more consistent with the real-world. The day-to-day evolution of driver behavior characteristics is reflected by updating the appropriate model parameters based on the current day’s experience. The within-day behavioral dynamics are reactive and capture drivers’ actions vis-à-vis the ambient driving conditions by updating the weights associated with the relevant if–then rules. The BBCS model is deployed by updating the ambient driver behavior class fractions so as to ensure consistency with the real-time traffic sensor measurements. Simulation experiments are conducted to investigate the real-time applicability of the proposed framework to a real-world network. The results suggest that the approach can reasonably capture the within-day variations in driver behavior model parameters and class fractions in the traffic stream. Also, they indicate that deployment-capable information strategies can be used to influence system performance. From a computational standpoint, the approach is real-time deployable.     

Personalised feedback and eco-driving: An explorative study

Conventional road transport has negative impact on the environment. Stimulating eco-driving through feedback to the driver about his/her energy conservation performance has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions and promote fuel cost savings. Not all drivers respond well to the same type of feedback. Research has shown that different drivers are attracted to different types of information and feedback. The goal of this paper is to explore which different driver segments with specific psychographic characteristics can be distinguished, how these characteristics can be used in the development of an ecodriving support system and whether tailoring eco-driving feedback technology to these different driver segments will lead to increased acceptance and thus effectiveness of the eco feedback technology. The driver segments are based on the value orientation theory and learning orientation theory. Different possibilities for feedback were tested in an exploratory study in a driving simulator. An explorative study was selected since the choice of the display (how and when the information is presented) may have a strong impact on the results. This makes testing of the selected driver segments very difficult. The results of the study nevertheless suggest that adapting the display to a driver segment showed an increase in acceptance in certain cases. The results showed small differences for ratings on acceptation, ease of use, favouritism and a lower general rating between matched (e.g., learning display with learning oriented drivers) and mismatched displays (e.g., learning display with performance oriented drivers). Using a display that gives historical feedback and incorporates learning elements suggested a non-verifiable increase in acceptance for learning oriented drivers. However historical feedback and learning elements may be less effective for performance oriented drivers, who may need comparative feedback and game elements to improve energy conserving driving behaviour.     

Weather and road geometry impact on longitudinal driving behavior: Exploratory analysis using an empirically supported acceleration modeling framework

The objective of this paper is to quantify and characterize driver behavior under different roadway geometries and weather conditions. In order to explore how a driver perceives the rapidly changing driving surrounding (i.e. different weather conditions and road geometry configurations) and executes acceleration maneuvers accordingly, this paper extends a Prospect Theory based acceleration modeling framework. A driving simulator is utilized to conduct 76 driving experiments. Foggy weather, icy and wet roadway surfaces, horizontal and vertical curves, and different lane and shoulder widths are simulated while having participants driving behind a yellow cab at speeds/headways of their choice. After studying the driving trends observed in the different driving experiments, the extended Prospect Theory based acceleration model is calibrated using the produced trajectory data. The extended Prospect Theory based model parameters are able to reflect a change in risk-perception and acceleration maneuvering when receiving different parameterized exogenous information. The results indicate that drivers invest more attention and effort to deal with the roadway challenges compared to the effort to deal with the weather conditions. Moreover, the calibrated model is used to simulate a highway segment and observe the produced fundamental diagram. The preliminary results suggest that the model is capable of capturing driver behavior under different roadway and weather conditions leading to changes in capacity and traffic disruptions.     

Driver response to variable message signs: a stated preference investigation

This paper uses a Stated Preference approach to undertake a detailed assessment of the effect on drivers’ route choice of information provided by variable message signs (VMS). Although drivers’ response to VMS information will vary according to the availability of alternative routes and the extent to which they are close substitutes, our findings show that route choice can be strongly influenced by the provision of information about traffic conditions ahead. This has important implications for the use of VMS systems as part of comprehensive traffic management and control systems. The principal findings are that the impact of VMS information depends on: the content of the message, such as the cause of delay and its extent; local circumstances, such as relative journey times in normal conditions; and drivers’ characteristics, such as their age, sex and previous network knowledge. The impact of qualitative indicators, visible queues and delays were examined. It was found that not only is delay time more highly valued than normal travel time, which is to be expected, but that drivers become more sensitive to delay time as delay times increased across the range presented.     

Agent-based en-route diversion: Dynamic behavioral responses and network performance represented by Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams

This paper focuses on modeling agents’ en-route diversion behavior under information provision. The behavior model is estimated based on naïve Bayes rules and re-calibrated using a Bayesian approach. Stated-preference driving simulator data is employed for model estimation. Bluetooth-based field data is employed for re-calibration. Then the behavior model is integrated with a simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment model. A traffic incident scenario along with variable message signs (VMS) is designed and analyzed under the context of a real-world large-scale transportation network to demonstrate the integrated model and the impact of drivers’ dynamic en-route diversion behavior on network performance. Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) is employed as a measurement to represent traffic dynamics. This research has quantitatively evaluated the impact of information provision and en-route diversion in a VMS case study. It proposes and demonstrates an original, complete, behaviorally sound, and cost-effective modeling framework for potential analyses and evaluations related to Advanced Traffic Information System (ATIS) and real-time operational applications.     

An improved incremental assignment model for parking variable message sign location problem

Operators and planners of parking guidance and information system (PGIS) often encounter the difficulty when and how to provide parking information to drivers in peak hours. The aim of this study was to assign the parking demands onto the urban network, find the positions suitable to locate the parking variable message sign (parking VMS), and try to solve the problem when to provide parking information to drivers. Parking VMS, as the most common forms of the information display terminal of PGIS, becomes critical in designing PGIS. This paper started from analyzing the relationship between the location and the performances of parking VMS. If a parking VMS is placed right along the link approaching to the divarication intersection of the subsequent “shortest path” and the previous one, the travel time declines abruptly, and the guiding compliance ratio becomes superior. Then, the network‐based parking choice model for the parking VMS was proposed. Network modification and incremental assignment were used to find the divarication intersections caused by the changes of space availability. In addition, MATLAB software package (MathWorks, Inc., Natick, MA, USA) was adopted to calculate the entire process mentioned. The proposed model and the algorithm were applied to a numerical example, where the location of parking VMS was obtained. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of driver satisfaction of travel information on variable message signs using fuzzy aggregation

Driver satisfaction regarding travel information provided by variable message signs (VMS), which are part of the Nam‐Mountain Tunnel ATIS, was evaluated using fuzzy aggregation. Application of fuzzy aggregation to analyze driver satisfaction allows one to represent the variability and complexity of human perception with great fidelity. A fuzzy weighted average using two sets of fuzzy membership functions was applied to evaluate individual satisfactions of delay and travel time information provided. Then, those individual satisfactions were aggregated to estimate the driver group's overall satisfaction. The evaluated overall satisfaction was 0.65 for delay information and 0.63 for travel time information. Through these results, it was found that users of the travel information provided by the VMS in the Nam‐Mountain Tunnel ATIS were somewhat satisfied with the service quality. Those overall satisfactions were compared with a conventional weighted average and traffic operational effects to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed fuzzy method.     

Proposed collision warning system for right-turning vehicles at two-way stop-controlled rural intersections

At two-way stop-controlled (TWSC) rural intersections, a right-turning driver who is departing the minor road may select an improper gap and subsequently may be involved in a rear-end collision with another vehicle approaching on the rightmost lane on the major road. This paper provides perceptual framework and algorithm design of a proposed infrastructure-based collision warning system that has the potential to aid unprotected right-turning drivers at TWSC rural intersections. The proposed system utilizes a radar sensor that measures the location, speed, and acceleration of the approaching vehicle on the major road. Based on these measurements, the system’s algorithm determines if there will be any potential conflict between the approaching and the turning vehicles and warns the driver of the latter vehicle if such a conflict is found. The algorithm is based on realistic acceleration profile of the turning vehicle to estimate its acceleration rates at different times so that the system can accurately estimate the time and distance needed for the departing vehicle to accelerate to the same speed as for the approaching vehicle. That realistic acceleration profile is established using actual experimental data collected by a Global Positioning System (GPS) data logger device that was used to record the positions and instantaneous speeds of different right-turning vehicles at 1-s intervals. The algorithm also gives consideration to the time needed by the driver of the departing vehicle to perceive the message displayed by the system and react to it (to start departure) where it was found that 95% of drivers have a perception–reaction time of 1.89 s or less. A methodology is also illustrated to select the maximum measurement errors suggested for the detectors in measuring the locations of the approaching vehicle on the major road where it was found that the accuracy of the system significantly deteriorates if the errors in measuring the distance and the azimuth angle exceed 0.1 m and 0.2°, respectively. An application example is provided to illustrate the algorithm used by the proposed system.     

Utilizing naturalistic driving data for in-depth analysis of driver lane-keeping behavior in rain: Non-parametric MARS and parametric logistic regression modeling approaches

It is known that adverse weather conditions can affect driver performance due to reduction in visibility and slippery surface conditions. Lane keeping is one of the main factors that might be affected by weather conditions. Most of the previous studies on lane keeping have investigated driver lane-keeping performance from driver inattention perspective. In addition, the majority of previous lane-keeping studies have been conducted in controlled environments such as driving simulators. Therefore, there is a lack of studies that investigate driver lane-keeping ability considering adverse weather conditions in naturalistic settings. In this study, the relationship between weather conditions and driver lane-keeping performance was investigated using the SHRP2 naturalistic driving data for 141 drivers between 19 and 89 years of age. Moreover, a threshold was introduced to differentiate lane keeping and lane changing in naturalistic driving data. Two lane-keeping models were developed using the logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to better understand factors affecting driver lane-keeping ability considering adverse weather conditions. The results revealed that heavy rain can significantly increase the standard deviation of lane position (SDLP), which is a very widely used method for analyzing lane-keeping ability. It was also found that traffic conditions, driver age and experience, and posted speed limits have significant effects on driver lane-keeping ability. An interesting finding of this study is that drivers have a better lane-keeping ability in roadways with higher posted speed limits. The results from this study might provide better insights into understanding the complex effect of adverse weather conditions on driver behavior.     

Driver's braking behavior approaching pedestrian crossings: a parametric duration model of the speed reduction times

The driver's braking behavior while approaching zebra crossings under different safety measures (curb extensions, parking restrictions, and advance yield markings) and without treatment (baseline condition) was examined. The speed reduction time was the variable used to describe the driver's behavior. Forty‐two drivers drove a driving simulator on an urban scenario in which the baseline condition and the safety measures were implemented. The speed reduction time was modeled with a parametric duration model to compare the effects on driver's braking behavior of vehicle dynamic variables and different countermeasures. The parametric accelerated failure time duration model with a Weibull distribution identified that the vehicle dynamic variables and only the countermeasure curb extensions affected, in a statistically significant way, the driver's speed reduction time in response to a pedestrian crossing. This result shows that the driver, because of the improved visibility of the pedestrian allowed by the curb extensions, was able to receive a clear information and better to adapt his approaching speed to yield to the pedestrian, avoiding abrupt maneuvers. This also means a reduction of likelihood of rear‐end collision due to less aggressive braking. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavior-consistent real-time traffic routing under information provision

The problem addressed here involves a controller seeking to enhance traffic network performance via real-time routing information provision to drivers while explicitly accounting for drivers’ likely reactions towards the information. A fuzzy control modeling approach is used to determine the associated behavior-consistent information-based network control strategies. Experiments are performed to compare the effectiveness of the behavior-consistent approach with traditional dynamic traffic assignment based approaches for deployment. The results show the importance of incorporating driver behavior realistically in the determination of the information strategies. Significant differences in terms of system travel time savings and compliance to the information strategies can be obtained when the behavior-consistent approach is compared to the traditional approaches. The behavior-consistent approach can provide more robust performance compared to the standard user or system optimal information strategies. Subject to a meaningful estimation of driver behavior, it can ensure system performance improvement. By contrast, approaches that do not seek to simultaneously achieve the objectives of the drivers and the controller can potentially deteriorate system performance because the controller may over-recommend or under-recommend some routes, or recommend routes that are not considered by the drivers.     

Modeling of individual vehicle safety and fuel consumption under comprehensive external conditions

This research intends to explore external factors affecting driving safety and fuel consumption, and build a risk and fuel consumption prediction model for individual drivers based on natural driving data. Based on 120 taxi drivers’ natural driving data during 4 months, driving behavior data under various conditions of the roadway, traffic, weather, and time of day are extracted. The driver's fuel consumption is directly collected by the on-board diagnostics (OBD) unit, and safety index is calculated based on Data Threshold Violations (DTV) and Phase Plane Analysis with Limits (PPAL) considering speed, longitudinal and lateral acceleration. By using a linear mixed model explaining the fixed effect of the external conditions and the random effect of the driver, the influences of various external factors on fuel consumption and safety are analyzed and discussed. The prediction model lays a foundation for drivers' fuel consumption and risk prediction in different external conditions, which could help improve individual driving behavior for the benefit of both fuel consumption and safety.     

An investigation of the reliability of real-time information for route choice decisions in a congested traffic system

This paper investigates the reliability of information on prevailing trip times on the links of a network as a basis for route choice decisions by individual drivers. It considers a type of information strategy in which no attempt is made by some central controller or coordinating entity to predict what the travel times on each link would be by the time it is reached by a driver that is presently at a given location. A specially modified model combining traffic simulation and path assignment capabilities is used to analyze the reliability of the real-time information supplied to the drivers. This is accomplished by comparing the supplied travel times (at the link and path levels) to the actual trip times experienced in the network after the information has been given. In addition, the quality of the decisions made by drivers on the basis of this information (under alternative path switching rules) is evaluated ex-post by comparing the actually experienced travel time (given the decision made) to the time that the driver would have experienced without the real-time information. Results of a series of simulation experiments under recurrent congestion conditions are discussed, illustrating the interactions between information reliability and user response.