行道树的种植及其对冲出道路交通事故的影响

作为道路景观设计的一个分支,行道树的设计被列为车辆冲出路外（ROR）交通事故的主要原因。因为在ROR 事故中,行道树是被撞击最多的固定物体,因此,许多研究人员建议取消行道树的种植,以创造足够清晰的区域。通过分析其它研究人员和机构统计的可用数据,研究并深入探讨了行道树的种植对 ROR 事故的影响。结果表明,行道树只是 ROR 撞车事故的最终接收者。我们迫切需要确定车辆冲出道路的原因,以制定解决 ROR事故的最佳方案。此外,道路设计和道路景观因素中对安全措施进行系统编码可以显著影响驾驶人员的驾驶行为,并由此降低 ROR 事故的发生频率和严重程度。     

车种分流影响道路交通事故之灰关联分析

台湾地区近年致力于交通安全改善之相关执行计划,企图透过教育、工程与执法之3E手段来降低交通事故数量与严重程度,然而思考如何将机动车分流落实到工程改善手段中亦是思考重点之一,而此分流措施必须奠基于有无采取机动车分流与机动车事故数量则是必须具备高度相关才有落实之可行性.因此,透过灰关联分析探讨台湾地区彰化市5条道路之基础设施与机动车事故的关联程度,其中路肩宽度与障碍物,以及机动车分流长度之灰关联度均为影响机动车事故的重要因素,因此考量是否有采行机动车分流措施则是与交通安全有绝对关系,未来则可依据事故类型加以评估是否落实机动车分流措施.      

Evaluation of risk factors for road accidents under mixed traffic: Case study on Indian highways

This paper presents an evaluation of risk factors for highway crashes under mixed traffic conditions. The basis of selecting study sites was abutting land use, roadway, and traffic characteristics. Accordingly, the study selected thirteen segments on the existing highway network in the state of West Bengal of India, covering a wide spectrum of such road attributes. A systematic investigation based on site-specific accident data to capture the highway sections' safety features revealed that the crash rate has steadily increased for years with traffic regardless of roadway category and conditions. A number of risk factors that affect road accidents were identified; they are mid-block access, pavement and shoulder conditions, vehicle involvement, time of day, and road configuration, i.e., two and multi-lane. The empirical observation indicates that the crash rate is relatively lower on multi-lane highways; however, the severity of any crash on such a road is relatively high. Notably, the crash frequencies on such roads are less during daylight hours due to the lane-based unidirectional traffic movement. This is quite the opposite during nighttime when drivers exhibit an inability to meet traffic contingencies, thereby increasing crash risk. The majority of crashes on two-lane highways are, on the other hand, due to unsafe driving manoeuvers. The study also observed that frequent mid-block accesses and poor shoulder conditions reduce scopes to rectify driving errors and increase crash risk as a consequence. The paper subsequently suggests proactive approaches to identify safety deficits at the time of planning and designing.     

基于乘员伤害分析的路侧行道树事故严重度评价

为了定量评估公路路侧行道树事故严重度,有针对性地提出安全改善措施,以减少车辆与路侧行道树碰撞的事故损失,分别引入加速度严重性指数(Acceleration Severity Index,ASI)、头部损伤判据(Head Injury Criteria,HIC)和胸部合成加速度(Chest Resultant Accel...     

基于TAN网络的地铁区间与车站施工事故致因分析

为解决不同类型的地铁施工事故关键致因识别，以便于支持事故相关方在风险分析、预防和控制进行决策的问题。在收集国内2011—2021年间发生的202起事故报告数据的基础上，采用树增强朴素贝叶斯（tree augmented naive, TAN）和EM算法，从事故经过、直接原因、间接原因3个角度分别对事故报告进行统计处理、风险指标提取及合并、风险指标筛选、模型图形结构构建、模型参数确定，并采用GENIE软件训练数据建立最终分析模型。贝叶斯模型分析结果表明： 1）通过正向推理明确不同类型事故的关键致险因素，并对各风险因素引发事故的总体影响程度进行重要度排序； 2）通过反向诊断说明所建模型在不同风险因素组合情境下对风险预测的决策支持作用； 3）10折交叉验证证实了模型的有效性。     

线形空间几何突变对曲线路段车道偏移的影响

为了探讨道路线形变化对侧碰、刮擦等侧向安全事故的影响，以三维空间线形的曲率和挠率作为公路线形几何特征描述参数，以车道偏移量作为侧向行车安全的表征指标，剖析了线形在空间层面发生的几何突变对车道偏离的影响。在山区高速公路开展实车试验，采用侧向行车视频记录连续的车道偏移，进行图像距离与实际距离的标定，并通过图像识别技术自动读取连续的车道偏移曲线，从中获取最大车道偏移作为分析变量。采用单因素方差分析方法，对新手驾驶人和熟练驾驶人在线形空间几何特征不同的曲线路段所表现的最大车道偏移结果展开统计分析和检验。分析结果表明：当空间曲率突变超过一定的临界值时，空间曲率突变与最大车道偏移显著正相关；挠率突变对车道偏移产生的影响主要取决于线形扭转的方向，当线形扭转方向与路拱横坡反向时，会明显加剧最大车道偏移；而线形扭转方向与路拱横坡同向时，会降低最大车道偏移但降低效果不明显；熟练驾驶人的最大车道偏移小于新手驾驶人，这种现象在空间曲率突变较大和挠率突变不利的路段尤为明显。研究结论可为公路线形安全性评价、线形设计优化和路侧安全改善提供参考。     

Potential safety benefits of lane departure prevention technology

Motor vehicles with advanced safety technologies are rapidly entering the marketplace and the impact of new features are transforming safety on roadways. Among the several safety related technologies currently available in the market, this paper aims to forecast the reduction in crashes with gradual adoption of vehicles with lane departure prevention (LDP) technology. Crash data for the state of Alabama from 2014 to 2016 were used to evaluate the safety benefits of LDP technology. In Alabama, 75% of single-vehicle crashes are the result of lane departure. A 20% effective LDP system implies, whereby an LDP system would prevent a vehicle from exiting a roadway on 20% of applicable instances, would reduce 2.7% and 16.4% of the relevant single-vehicle lane departure (SVLD) crashes by 2020 and 2045 respectively. With increase in the effectiveness of the technology, a greater reduction in crashes was observed. With 100% effectiveness, this technology can prevent 66.5% of SVLD crashes by year 2045. This study presents the first estimations of the number of crashes that could be reduced using LDP and therefore could have significant impacts on public and industry adoption rates of the technology. The results of this study influence policy making and regulatory approaches to improving motor vehicle safety and further recommend education and outreach activities to increase awareness on the benefits of LDP technology.     

路面抗滑性能影响弯道行车安全的仿真分析

为研究车辆制动工况下路面抗滑性能对弯道行车安全的影响,以车辆动力学分析软件AD-AMS为仿真平台,提出采用轮胎解析参数、整车参数、路面抗滑值构建耦合关联的车辆-轮胎-路面模型,在此基础上研究不同湿滑路面状态下弯道行驶车辆的运动学参数值变化情况,探索路面抗滑性能与表征行车安全风险的运动学参数值之间的关系.研究结果表明,路面抗滑性能影响车辆运动学参数值变化是诱发交通事故的主要因素.较低的弯道路面抗滑性能易使车辆在制动时出现急速横摆、甚至侧翻的交通事故;车辆两侧轮胎接地面抗滑值不均衡对弯道行车安全的影响高于对直道行车安全的影响,车辆极易在弯道制动时出现因抗滑值不均衡而无法保持有效转弯半径、进而冲出车道的交通事故.研究可为制定弯道行车安全的保障措施提供理论依据.      

Comportements,personnalité, conduite des véhicules automobiles

This study was carried out on a population of 127 offending drivers of both sexes. A validation study was also performed on a sample of 51 offending drivers of both sexes. On the basis of a questionnaire that dealt with road related parameters (violations accidents, vehicle power) and use of the Guilford Zimmermann Temperament. Survey (with the Parenti driving questionnaire in the validation study), a variety of analyses were conducted which demonstrated essentially that offending drivers do not posses a specific psycholonical profile, (unlike motorcycle and HGV licence holders who do). However, it emerged that men and women have a different relationship with the car which is an object of narcissistic investment for men, contributing to their image and self-esteem and becoming a means or supporting and asserting their masculine identity) and that the intensification of male identity is associated with a variety of behaviours that increase the risk of both violations and accidents. Furthermore, while violations in themselves are not predictive of risk, perhaps revealing more about the nature of surveillance activities, frequent reoffending can lead to the assumption that the individuals are potentially dangerous drivers.     

基于N-K模型的隧道施工事故多风险因素耦合分析

为解决多风险因素耦合作用对隧道安全施工的影响，在分析2009—2019年国内101次隧道施工事故发生原因的基础上，将影响隧道安全施工的风险因素区分为人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素4方面; 将风险耦合理论引入隧道施工事故风险分析中，探讨隧道施工事故多风险因素的耦合机制、分类和解耦原理，利用N-K模型构建隧道施工风险耦合模型，揭示隧道施工事故多风险因素间的耦合效应。研究结果表明： 参与耦合作用的风险因素越多，耦合作用形式计算的耦合值越大，则隧道施工风险越大。在3个风险因素参与的耦合过程中，人为-设备-环境因素之间的相互耦合作用造成的隧道施工风险最大；在2个风险因素参与的耦合过程中，设备-环境因素之间的相互耦合作用造成的隧道施工风险最大。基于解耦思想,可以减小隧道施工中各风险因素之间的耦合效应，进而降低隧道施工事故发生的可能性。     

Stability measurement of high-speed vehicles

Vehicle rollover represents a significant percentage of single-vehicle accidents and accounts for over 9000 fatalities and over 200,000 non-fatal injuries each year. Previous research has yielded rollover stability control systems that are effective in on-road conditions. Accident statistics show, however, that over 90% of rollovers involve road departure, during which a vehicle may encounter sloped and rough terrain while travelling at high speed. A critical element of most rollover stability control systems is a metric that monitors a vehicle's nearness to rollover. Most metrics, however, are designed for use on flat, level surfaces characteristic of on-road terrain. In this paper, a new stability metric, termed the stability moment, is proposed that is accurate on terrain surfaces with arbitrary geometry, which allows it to be used in road departure scenarios. The metric is based on an estimate of the distribution of wheel–terrain contact forces. The metric can be calculated on line in real time, using only practical, low-cost sensors. The metric is compared in simulations and experimental studies to existing stability metrics and is shown to exhibit superior performance, particularly in off-road conditions.     

An analysis of motorcyclists' injury severities in work-zone crashes with unobserved heterogeneity

Work-zone related crashes in Florida are increasing steadily in recent years. With such growing concern, work-zone is recognized in Florida Strategic Highway Safety Plan. The severity and complexity of motorcycle crashes in work-zones is critically important and worth investigating. However, the resulting effect of work-zone on motorcyclists' injuries in work-zone crashes is not fully understood. The purpose of study is to identify the contributing factors of motorcyclists' injury severity sustained in the work-zone crashes in Florida. Recognizing the relatively higher risk of motorcyclists in work-zones with respective to non-work-zones, this study further uncovers the contributing factors for single- and multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Florida work-zones. This study investigated motorcyclists' injury severity applying random parameter multinomial logit with possible heterogeneity in means and variances of the random parameters for single-motorcycle and multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes. This study utilizes the Crash Analysis Reporting (CAR) system in Florida over a period of five years from 2012 to 2016 (inclusive). The model result indicates a complex relationship between dark condition, old-aged motorcyclist (50–65), requirement and absence of endorsement, partial ejection, straight roadway segment, shoulder width (up to 1.22 m (4 ft), and 2.74–3.66 m (9–12 ft), urban interstate, activity area, and lane closure and work on shoulder-median work-zone types. The effect of work-zone on single-motorcycle crashes tends to have much more in resulting injury severities relative to multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes. It is more important to investigate the injury severity by single- and multi-vehicle crashes involving motorcycles in work-zones. These risk factors identified in the study are expected to provide more insights for the countermeasures specific to engineering (roadway design) and policy (motorcycle training), which can be considered to improve motorcycle safety in Florida.     

山区道路车辆行驶安全预警系统开发

当发现车辆发生安全事故机率达到一定程度时,及时警示驾驶员采取恰当措施操纵车辆,可有效地减少交通事故的发生。通过对基于车路耦合的汽车山区行驶安全度模型的分析,确定了可用来预测车辆在山区道路行驶过程中安全程度的参数,同时提出山区道路车辆行驶安全预警系统设计方案。该系统可以根据测试车辆的某些运行状态参数,结合车辆前方道路参数计算车辆当前的安全度量化值及其变化趋势,预测车辆安全事故发生的可能性大小。     

Multivariate modeling of pedestrian fatality risk through on the spot accident investigation

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable users of public roads and represent one of the largest groups of road casualties; their death rate around the world due to vehicle-pedestrian collisions is high and tending to rise. In Spain, as in other countries of the European Union, steps have been taken to reduce the number and consequences of such accidents, with encouraging results in recent years. A key to countering this concern is the accident research activity that has obtained remarkable achievements in different fields, especially when multidisciplinary approaches are taken. This paper describes the development of a multivariate model that is able to detect the most influential parameters on the consequences of vehicle-pedestrian collision and to quantify their impact on pedestrian fatality risk. First, an accident database containing detailed information and parameters of vehicle-pedestrian collisions in Madrid has been developed. The accidents were investigated on the spot by INSIA accident investigation teams and analyzed using advanced reconstruction techniques. The model was then developed with two components: (1) a classification tree that characterizes and selects the explanatory variables, identifying their interactions, and (2) a binary logistic regression to quantify the influence of each variable and interaction resulting from the classification tree. The whole model represents an important tool for identifying, quantifying and predicting the potential impact of measures aimed at reducing injuries in vehicle-pedestrian collisions.     

基于贝叶斯空间相关模型的城市快速路安全影响因素研究

快速路是城市交通的主骨架,其运行安全态势直接影响整体通行效率的发挥。利用线圈检测器数据和由事故视频监控系统采集的2011~2013年共50069起事故数据,应用贝叶斯空间相关模型,对上海市南北高架、延安路高架、内环和中环4条快速路进行建模分析。为了反映路段间的潜在空间联系,在负二项模型的基础上,加入空间随机影响项建立相邻空间相关模型;进一步改进了该空间随机项的协方差矩阵,建立距离空间相关模型。通过贝叶斯回归方法比较3个模型的回归效果。结果显示,距离空间相关模型具有最优的拟合效果,其方差信息标准(DIC)较负二项模型降低6.04%。由此证明,事故在道路中的分布存在空间关联,且其相关性受距离影响。在道路几何特性影响因素中,路段前后1 km 内匝道数越多,每公里转角越大,事故风险越大;入口-出口型交织路段事故发生几率较高。日均交通量与事故风险显著正相关。不同快速路对比分析表明内环事故风险偏高,中环事故风险较低。      

双车道等级公路路侧事故预测模型研究

借鉴国内外事故预测模型(也称安全性能函数SPF)研究领域的最新成果,收集了31条双车道公路(总里程约740 km)的事故、交通量和线形数据,采用了泊松、负二项、零堆积泊松和零堆积负二项四种统计概率分布,从路侧事故数、路侧事故死亡人数、路侧事故受伤人数三方面对路侧事故规律进行了研究,通过弹性分析从量化的角度给出了道路几何条件、交通量水平与构成等指标与路侧安全的关系。     

城市道路空洞风险评估方法研究

我国城市道路广泛面临着道路空洞的风险,近年来空洞所致道路塌陷的事故率增长很快,建立一套城市道路空洞的风险评估方法尤为必要。由于空洞的形成及风险是多因素影响的复杂事件,目前国内并未形成针对性的评估方法。以北京市大量事故调查为基础,运用风险控制理论,综合运用德尔菲法、模糊层次分析法等,阐述了一套城市道路空洞安全的风险评估方法,包含风险识别、风险可能性评估、风险后果评估、风险分级、风险防范与控制措施等。     

基于事故机理和追责的地铁隧道坍塌事故分析与防范策略

为掌握地铁隧道坍塌事故机理,强化生产安全事故防范和地铁隧道施工中重点环节、关键工序的风险管控,对当前城市地铁隧道施工中出现的坍塌事故原因和类型进行分析,深化对地铁隧道施工坍塌形成机理的认识,提出预防事故发生必须以安全生产法律法规和施工安全标准规范为准则,构建风险管控和隐患排查双重预防机制。结合具体案例对盾构隧道事故发生的直接原因及所存在的问题进行深入分析,在探究事故原因和违法违规追责行为分析基础上,从安全生产管理原理出发,完善地铁施工安全责任体系、完善地铁施工安全法规和技术标准体系、完善分级分类建立地铁施工安全风险管理体系、加快信息技术与安全生产的深度融合等方面,提出地铁隧道坍塌事故的防范措施。     

山区高速公路组合线形路段车道偏移行为

为在道路设计阶段确定平纵组合与相邻路段线形对车道偏离的影响,并为减少因道路线形因素引发的侧碰、追尾甚至车辆驶出路外事故提供改善依据,基于真实的山区高速公路道路设计参数及周边地形,搭建驾驶模拟场景,利用驾驶模拟试验获取小客车车道偏离数据,并对应获取车辆当前所在路段及上、下游路段的线形参数。以车辆车道内行驶为参照,沿道路行进方向,将车道偏离行为分为左偏驶离车道与右偏驶离车道。因车道偏离受驾驶人影响,采用双层Logit模型,分别判定道路线形及驾驶人层的影响。研究结果表明：相比直线路段,曲线更易引发车道偏离行为,驾驶人易偏向于曲线内侧行驶;上游300 m路段曲率差越大、平均车速越大,则车道偏离的概率增大;相对于缓坡（-2%≤坡度S≤2%）,行驶于上坡（S>2%）或下坡（S<2%）路段时,车辆车道偏离概率减小;车辆行驶于外侧车道的左偏驶离车道概率大于行驶于内侧车道;驾驶人因素对左偏驶离车道的影响比例为8.8%,对右偏驶离车道的影响比例为25.6%。研究结论可从组合线形角度帮助工程师设计更安全的山区高速公路。     

识别驾驶人意图的车道偏离防避有界控制

为了防止车辆偏离车道导致交通事故的发生和避免车道偏离防避系统（Lane Departure Avoidance Systems,LDAS）对驾驶人行为不必要的干预,提出基于中心区操纵特性阈值法和基于D-S（Dempster-Shafer）证据理论的车辆偏离车道驾驶人意图识别准则,并运用CarSim/Simulink联合仿真对比2种识别准则的有效性。建立转向盘角速度为输入的车路模型,设计LDAS滑模转向控制器,基于预瞄点的侧向偏移量和横摆角速度设计LDAS的期望横摆角速度观测器,并与基于道路曲率和预瞄点侧向偏移量的期望横摆角速度的LDAS进行性能对比。运用相平面法确定保证LDAS车辆稳定性的前轮转向角最大值,并基于CarSim/LabVIEW RT硬件在环试验平台验证基于BP神经网络训练获得D-S证据理论的初始概率赋值的驾驶人意图决策算法的有效性。结果表明：所提出的识别准则能够及时识别车辆偏离车道时的驾驶人意图,为LDAS控制器介入赢得了宝贵的时间,所设计的期望横摆角速度观测器具有很好的稳定性,所提出的方法能够有效避免车辆偏离车道。