Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.     

船舶结构腐蚀检测与腐蚀模型不确定性及其更新

针对经典的概率论不能有效地处理无损检测中检测概率的参数不确定性问题,提出了定量分析检测概率参数不确定性问题的贝叶斯方法,并以威布尔分布形式的检测概率为例,推导了量化参数不确定性的放大系数的计算公式.针对传统的数据分析法及专家判断法不能分析模型不确定性更新问题,本文基于无损检测信息,采用贝叶斯更新方法量化了检测概率分布函数的统计模型不确定性,得到了检测概率统计模型权重的后验概率及相应的分布参数的后验概率密度函数.最后提出了分析船体结构腐蚀多层次模型不确定性问题的全概率模型法,并用算例证明了文中所提方法的有效性.     

Lagrangian modelling of plankton motion: From deceptively simple random walks to Fokker–Planck and back again

The movement of plankton, either by turbulent mixing or their own inherent motility, can be simulated in a Lagrangian framework as a random walk. Validation of random walk simulations is essential. There is a continuum of mathematically valid stochastic integration schemes upon which random walk simulations depend, each of which lead to radically different macro-scale dynamics as expressed in their corresponding Fokker–Planck equations. In addition, diffusivity is not a unique parameter describing a random walk and its corresponding Fokker–Planck equation. Spatially varying translation speed and turn frequency have different effects on population distributions. Validation requires extra information either in the form of the well-mixed condition for physical diffusion, or in detailed information on the sensing ability, internal state modulation and swimming response for plankton motility.     

基于矩不确定分布鲁棒优化的船舶舱室布局设计

船舶舱室布局所涉的评价指标通常具有不确定性,诸如环境载荷等参数通常以不确定性的随机变量形式参与计算,且其概率分布的期望及方差等指标往往也是不确定的。本文采用矩不确定分布鲁棒优化方法,解决含矩不确定参数的船舶舱室布局min-max优化问题。将各舱室的全局位置参数、相对位置参数和质量分布参数加权整合为目标函数,建立全船范围内的舱室布局DRO-MU优化模型,采用拉格朗日对偶原理将其转为确定的半定规划问题以便求解。算例验证了本文方法的合理性与优越性,该方法针对性地用于解决含矩不确定参数的船舶舱室布局问题具有鲜明特点。     

Measurements of hydrodynamic forces, surface pressure, and wake for obliquely towed tanker model and uncertainty analysis for CFD validation

This article presents hydrodynamic forces and moments, surface pressures, estimated side force distributions, and wakes under oblique towing conditions for a practical tanker model (model KVLCC2M), which was designed by the Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering (KRISO). Ship offset data is readily available and can be obtained from the Internet. The model ship has no appendages and no rudder. Trim and sinkage were adjusted to zero in the static condition and the model ship was constrained against any motion. Although the drift angle β was primarily set to 0°, 6°, and 12°, other settings were used in some experiments. All experimental results were processed using uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analyzing method follows the ANSI/ASME Performance Test Code (PTC19.1-1985) and the AIAA Standard S-071-1995. Only a few error components were considered here and they were empirically chosen because they had a heavy weighting when used in the uncertainty calculation. The results of these towing tank experiments will contribute to the development of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) research in ship hydrodynamics.     

Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part3, validation with Continuous Plankton Recorder data

Data collected during the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been used to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic ecosystem model simulation of the North-west European Shelf for the years 1988–89. The CPR time series is unique to the North Atlantic region as a validation tool. Data were extracted from the model to correspond with those collected by the CPR survey, and both the model and survey plankton data were standardised to allow the comparison of model biomass with survey counts. Simple linear regression and absolute error maps provide a qualitative evaluation of spatio-temporal model performance of simulated diatoms, flagellates, total phytoplankton and omnivorous mesozooplankton. Comparisons of z-scores indicate that the model reproduces the main pelagic seasonal features, and there is good correlation between magnitudes of these features with respect to standard deviations from a long-term mean. The model is replicating up to 62% of the mesozooplankton seasonality across the domain, with variable results for the phytoplankton. There are, however, differences in the timing of patterns in plankton seasonality. The validation exercise has highlighted that the spring diatom bloom in the model is too early, suggesting the need to reparameterise the response of phytoplankton to changing light levels in the model. Errors in the north and west of the domain imply that model turbulence and vertical density structure need to be improved to more accurately capture plankton dynamics.     

Online learning control of surface vessels for fine trajectory tracking

This paper presents an adaptive neural network (NN) controller for fine trajectory tracking of surface vessels with uncertain environmental disturbances. Regarding to the new demands for fine trajectory tracking, especially to the requirement of high-accuracy tracking in limited working space, the proposed NN controller is designed to contain a tracking error control component and a velocity error control component, aiming to converge both types of error to zero, separately. It utilizes radial basis functions to approximate a vessel’s unknown nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, there is no need of any explicit knowledge of the vessel. The online learning ability is obtained during the stability analysis using the backstepping technique and the Lyapunov theory. Theoretical results guarantee both the convergence of tracking error and velocity error and the boundedness of NN update. Through simulation and tracking performance study based on the CyberShip II model, the proposed controller is verified effective in fine trajectory tracking.     

Non-intrusive polynomial chaos for efficient uncertainty analysis in parametric roll simulations

Monte Carlo analyses are generally considered the standard for uncertainty analysis. While accurate, these analyses can be expensive computationally. Recently, polynomial chaos has been proposed as an alternative approach to the estimation of uncertainty distributions (Hosder et al. A non-intrusive polynomial chaos method for uncertainty propagation in CFD simulations. In: 44th AIAA aerospace sciences meeting and exhibit, Reno, Nevada, 2006; Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). This approach works by representing the function as a series of orthogonal polynomials; the weights for which can be calculated via several methods. Previous studies have demonstrated the usefulness of this technique for comparatively simple systems such as parametric roll modeled by the Mathieu equation with normally distributed parameter values (Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). In the present work, a polynomial chaos method is applied to a nonlinear computational ship dynamics model with normally distributed input parameters. Test cases were selected where parametric roll was expected to potentially occur. The resulting probability distributions are compared to the results of a Monte Carlo analysis. In general, these results demonstrate good agreement between Monte Carlo simulation and polynomial chaos in the absence of capsize with significant computation gains found with polynomial chaos. Overall, we conclude that polynomial chaos is an effective tool for reducing simulation time costs when studying parametric roll, and potentially other ship dynamics phenomena, particularly in the absence of capsize-like bifurcations.     

Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography

This paper outlines an approach to complex spatio-temporal marine ecosystem modelling as applied to the North Western European Continental Shelf. The model presented here combines an eddy-permitting (approximately 6 km horizontal resolution) baroclinic model, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS), with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). This has been run within an operational framework using operationally available high resolution atmospheric and lateral boundary forcing, allowing hindcast and near-real time nowcast simulations to be performed. The modelled surface temperature and chlorophyll distributions are presented, and interannual variations discussed. Validation of both the physical and ecosystem submodels show the system to be effective, whilst highlighting areas where improvements in the system can be made. Distinct regional differences in predictive skill are shown. The system presented is ready for operational implementation to provide products and services for use both scientifically and in coastal zone and shelf seas management activities. A programme of work to update the system is already in place.     

基于参数扰动模型的遥控潜水器滑模控制方法

[目的]遥控潜水器(ROV)的运动控制易受到环境和模型参数不确定性因素的影响,难以达到预期控制效果,针对此情况,提出一种基于参数扰动模型的ROV滑模控制方法.[方法]以标准ROV模型为基础,将环境干扰与模型自身参数的不确定性作为模型扰动参数,建立带参数扰动的ROV模型,并对模型进行解耦得到深度方向的控制模型,基于带参数...     

改进的MODSA算法在船型优化中的应用

针对传统智能优化算法处理高维优化问题时易陷入局部最优解且优化效率低的问题,文章采用近几年提出的基于模型的动态抽样分配(MODSA)算法作为研究对象,该算法具有处理高维优化问题的潜力,但对某些复杂高维问题很难搜索到全局最优解。为避免MODSA算法陷入局部最优解,采用多元正态分布作为抽样分布并推导相应参数更新式;为进一步提升该算法的优化效率,采用均匀设计确定初始抽样分布的期望值并通过Sigma管理水平自适应确定初始方差。通过数值函数测试结果表明:改进的MODSA算法具有更好的优化性能。最后,将改进的MODSA算法应用于5100TEU集装箱船兴波阻力性能优化。     

Investigation of model and parameter uncertainty in water quality models using a random walk method

A mathematical model to predict the effect of chemical spills in the Forth estuary in Scotland has been in use for many years. The model, based on the random walk method, predicts chemical concentrations in the estuary waters and estimates the elapsed time before the dilution is sufficient to render the spill harmless (making use of a toxicity measure such as the LC50 or a water quality standard). The model gives a deterministic result without any estimate of the uncertainty. Field studies using tracer dyes to measure the horizontal and vertical mixing rates in the estuary show that these rates vary over time. The literature on turbulent diffusion includes modelling applications using different parameterisations of the mixing process. This paper investigates the uncertainties in predicted concentrations due to model parameterisation of horizontal mixing and due to the variability in the measured mixing rates determined from surveys in the estuary. Estimates of the range of concentrations for a specific spill scenario are presented.The study shows that model formulation and parameter uncertainty are both important factors in estimating the uncertainty in model predictions. The uncertainty caused by the variations with time found in the measured mixing rates is found to be of similar magnitude to the differences in concentration resulting from using three different methods for modelling the horizontal mixing in the estuary. Uncertainties associated with model formulation could be reduced if a small number of longer timescale (e.g. 24 h) dispersion experiments were available. In addition, further data from short-term (3 h) dispersion experiments would give a better understanding of the distribution of mixing coefficients and how the mixing relates to other parameters such as tidal range and wind speed and direction.     

Intermittent turbulence and copepod dynamics: Increase in encounter rates through preferential concentration

Turbulence has a strong influence on plankton contact rate, which is a crucial parameter for plankton ecology. In the field of particle-turbulence interactions, it is now well known that fully developed turbulence does not always homogenise particle distributions, but instead creates, in some well-defined conditions, preferential concentrations of heavy particles. Many studies have considered the influence of this type of preferential concentration on particle contact rate. We consider here the possible application of these results to copepods, assuming that some results obtained for heavy particles are still valid for light particles. Using parameter values representative of copepod species in coastal waters and open ocean, we numerically estimate the possible enhancement of copepod contact rates due to the preferential concentration by turbulence. The assessment is done by using data from a laboratory experiment: we find from the trajectory analysis of small neutrally buoyant particles, that the preferential concentration effect increases the contact rate up to 140%. We argue that this effect may be more pronounced for higher Reynolds numbers, and may have important ecological applications.     

基于模型预测扩展卡尔曼滤波的动力定位状态估计

针对传统扩展卡尔曼滤波由于动力定位系统过程噪声不能自适应更新,导致滤波精度下降的问题,提出了一种模型预测扩展卡尔曼滤波算法。该算法通过比较一段时间内的量测值和预测值,估计系统噪声参数,从而实时修正系统过程噪声方差。仿真结果表明,当系统的过程噪声未知的情况下,模型预测扩展卡尔曼滤波的滤波性能明显优于传统扩展卡尔曼滤波。     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part II: Numerical simulations

This paper presents a global ocean implementation of a multi-component model of marine pelagic biogeochemistry coupled on-line with an ocean general circulation model forced with climatological surface fields (PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations, PELAGOS). The final objective is the inclusion of this model as a component in an Earth System model for climate studies. The pelagic model is based on a functional stoichiometric representation of marine biogeochemical cycles and allows simulating the dynamics of C, N, P, Si, O and Fe taking into account the variation of their elemental ratios in the functional groups. The model also includes a parameterization of variable chlorophyll/carbon ratio in phytoplankton, carrying chl as a prognostic variable. The first part of the paper analyzes the contribution of non-local advective–diffusive terms and local vertical processes to the simulated chl distributions. The comparison of the three experiments shows that the mean chl distribution at higher latitudes is largely determined by mixing processes, while vertical advection controls the distribution in the equatorial upwelling regions. Horizontal advective and diffusive processes are necessary mechanisms for the shape of chl distribution in the sub-tropical Pacific. In the second part, the results have been compared with existing datasets of satellite-derived chlorophyll, surface nutrients, estimates of phytoplankton community composition and primary production data. The agreement is reasonable both in terms of the spatial distribution of annual means and of the seasonal variability in different dynamical oceanographic regions. Results indicate that some of the model biases in chl and surface nutrients distributions can be related to deficiencies in the simulation of physical processes such as advection and mixing. Other discrepancies are attributed to inadequate parameterizations of phytoplankton functional groups. The model has skill in reproducing the overall distribution of large and small phytoplankton but tends to underestimate diatoms in the northern higher latitudes and overestimate nanophytoplankton with respect to picoautotrophs in oligotrophic regions. The performance of the model is discussed in the context of its use in climate studies and an approach for improving the parameterization of functional groups in deterministic models is outlined.     

基于Bech模型的船舶航向自抗扰控制器设计与仿真

基于船舶非线性Bech模型提出了一种新型船舶航向控制器——高阶自抗抗控制器(ADRC),该控制器主要由三阶TD、四阶ESO和非线性状态误差反馈(NLSEF)三部分组成.设计扩张状态观测器时,采用二阶TD的滤波功能对系统输出进行噪声滤波,并用其滤波值来建立扩张状态观测器.通过航向改变、参数摄动、外界干扰的仿真试验表明,自抗扰控制器控制效果良好,具有较强的鲁棒性.     

船台测量场中多级转站的不确定度

对在船台测量场内利用全站仪进行多级转站测量时误差的传递过程进行研究,分析误差的来源及其累积方法,建立转站过程中误差传递的数学模型,并据此推导出多级转站测量的系统误差传递公式及其不确定度估计公式。采用蒙特卡洛方法开展考虑全站仪测量误差的多级转站过程仿真试验,并将仿真结果与计算结果相对比。结果表明,提出的误差估计方法能较好地反映多级转站时误差的传递过程和不确定度的分布规律。     

Assimilation of SeaWiFS ocean chlorophyll data into a three-dimensional global ocean model

Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll data were assimilated with an established three-dimensional global ocean model. The assimilation improved estimates of chlorophyll relative to a free-run (no assimilation) model. Compared to SeaWiFS, annual bias of the assimilation model was 5.5%, with an uncertainty of 10.1%. The free-run model had a bias of 21.0% and an uncertainty of 65.3%. In situ data were compared to the assimilation model over a 6-year time period from 1998 through 2003, indicating a bias of 0.1%, and an uncertainty of 33.4% for daily coincident, co-located data. SeaWiFS bias was slightly higher at − 1.3% and nearly identical uncertainty at 32.7%. The free-run bias and uncertainty at − 1.4% and 61.8%, respectively, indicated how much the assimilation improved model results. Annual primary production estimates for the 1998–2003 period produced a nearly 50% improvement by the assimilation model over the free-run model as compared to a widely used algorithm using SeaWiFS chlorophyll data. These results suggest the potential of assimilation of satellite ocean chlorophyll data for improving model results.     

舰船材料疲劳统计分析中的贝叶斯方法

讨论了舰船材料疲劳统计分析中的贝叶斯方法,将疲劳模型中的未知参数作为随机变量处理,利用贝叶斯定理求出参数的后验分布密度,然后建立不同存活率下的贝叶斯疲劳曲线的求解方程;最后再编程进行计算,结果表明,贝叶斯方法既考虑了统计上的不确定性,又合理解决了疲劳试验数据中的越出问题。