Ballast Water Risk Indication for the North Sea

The ballast water from ships carries marine organisms that have invasive potential. The International Maritime Organization Ballast Water Management Convention (2004) requires ballast water exchange or ballast water management (BWM) systems either onboard or ashore. Ships can be exempted on the basis of risk assessment, when exclusively sailing between specific ports or in an enclosed area. In reply to our questionnaire, the shipping sector argues that the North Sea is ecologically homogeneous and exemptions could therefore be granted. This paper proposes that the North Sea area is, in fact, not homogeneous in terms of hydrographical and biological conditions; therefore, ballast water is a relevant transport mechanism for organisms. Within the North Sea, the short shipping routes indicate a high risk for survival. We examined actual simulation models for ballast water risk assessment in the North Sea, and we have identified the major parameters that need to be included in such models. These models provided a basis; they further need to be combined and adapted for the purpose of evaluating the rationale for an exemption. We concluded that exemptions from BWM are not recommended for the North Sea area. Anticipating the Ballast Water Management Convention, ship owners might do well to study possibilities for installing BWM systems onboard.     

Simulation of the oil spill processes in the Sea of Japan with regional ocean circulation model

A simulation of the movement of spilled oil after the incident of the Russian tanker Nakhodka in the Sea of Japan, in January 1997, was performed by a particle tracking model incorporating advection by currents, random diffusion, the buoyancy effect, the parameterization of oil evaporation, biodegradation, and beaching. The currents advecting spilled oil were defined by surface wind drift superposed on the three-dimensional ocean currents obtained by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model (GFDL MOM), which was forced by the climatological monthly mean meteorological data, or by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) daily meteorological data, and assimilated sea surface topography detected by satellite altimeter. A number of experiments with different parameters and situations showed that the wide geographical spread of oil observed is not explained by wind drift alone, and that including the simulated climatological currents gives better results. The combination of surface wind drift and daily ocean currents shows the best agreement between the model and observations except in some coastal areas. The daily meteorological effect on the ocean circulation model results in a stronger variability of currents that closely simulates some features of the nonlinear large-scale horizontal turbulent diffusion of oil. The effect of different parameterizations for the size distribution of model oil particles is discussed. Received for publication on July 26, 1999; accepted on Nov. 17, 1999     

Norwegian North Sea action programme: Analysis of measures to reduce nutrient inputs

According to the terms of the Ministerial Declaration on the Protection of the North Sea, input of the nutrients phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) to the coast from the Norwegian‐Swedish border to Lindesnes should be reduced by about 50% between 1985 and 1995. The State Pollution Control Authority (SFT) has analyzed how Norway can achieve this reduction in the most cost‐effective way and at the same time achieve the greatest possible improvement in water quality along the Norwegian coast and in its watercourses.

Two alternative sets of measures were analyzed, both of which would meet the requirements of the Declaration. The lowest‐cost alternative would have average annual costs of about NKr 930 million (U.S.S150 million), and investments of about NKr 4000 million (U.S. $643 million). However, this set of measures would not take account of local water quality, and measures would therefore not always be introduced where the need is most pressing. SFT proposed that an alternative set of measures be implemented, almost all of which would also help to achieve local goals for water quality. This alternative will have annual costs of about NKr 980 million (U.S.$158 million), and investments of about NKr 4100 million (U.S.$659 million).     

Optimal interpolation of sea surface temperature for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

Sea surface temperature fields of the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been constructed for the year 2001 using a multiplatform Optimal Interpolation scheme. The analyzed fields are constructed every 12 h on a 10 km spatial grid. The product is based upon observations from the three NOAA satellites 12, 14 and 16 together with a large amount of in situ observations. Space dependent covariance functions are estimated from the satellite observations and account for spatial and temporal lags. Several independent methods have been used to assess the error on the sea surface temperature product. Compared against independent in situ observations, the mean RMS difference for the year 2001 is 0.78 °C. The spatial distribution of the errors reveals that the Baltic Sea in general show higher errors than the North Sea. The error statistics throughout the year show a temporal variation of the errors with maximum during summer and winter. Tests with a varying number of satellite observations show that the accuracy of the satellite observations is the most important parameter in terms of reducing the errors on the interpolated sea surface temperature product.     

Hydrography and biogeochemistry of the north western Bay of Bengal and the north eastern Arabian Sea during winter monsoon

The north eastern Arabian Sea and the north western Bay of Bengal within the Indian exclusive economic zone were explored for their environmental characteristics during the winter monsoons of 2000 and 2001 respectively. The two regions were found to respond paradoxically to comparable intensities of the atmospheric forcing. There is an asymmetry in the net heat exchange of these two basins with atmosphere because of the varying thickness of barrier layer. During winter, the convective mixing in the Arabian Sea is driven by net heat loss from the ocean, whereas the Bay of Bengal does not contribute to such large heat loss to the atmosphere. It appears that the subduction of high saline Arabian Sea water mass is the mechanism behind the formation of a barrier layer in the northeast Arabian Sea; whereas that in the Bay of Bengal and the southeast Arabian Sea are already established as due to low saline water mass. The weak barrier layer in the Arabian Sea yields to the predominance of convective mixing to bring in nitrate-rich waters from the deeper layers to the surface, thereby supporting enhanced biological production. On the other hand, the river discharge into the Bay of Bengal during this period results in the formation of a thick and stable barrier layer, which insulates vertical mixing and provide oligotrophic condition in the Bay.     

Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem–zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.     

Spatial and temporal variability in the pelagic ecosystem of the East Sea (Sea of Japan): A review

The East Sea (Sea of Japan) is a unique marginal sea because it exhibits features of oceanic dynamics of much larger ocean basins. This semi-enclosed basin may be considered as a model or microcosm for understanding of how biological processes and distributions in pelagic ecosystem are interacting with physical processes in highly dynamic ocean regions. This overview summarizes the recent progresses concerning spatial and temporal variability of pelagic ecosystem components form an interdisciplinary point of view. Spatial characteristics of physical environments and biogeography in the region are distinguished mainly by the subpolar front. It was also found that long-term changes in biomass and community structure as well as those in the physical and biological environments are associated with climate variability in the region. We conclude by identifying main needs for the information and researches, particularly regular and long-term sampling, and permanent monitoring if possible.     

pH variability and CO2 induced acidification in the North Sea

A coupled carbonate system–marine ecosystem–hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the temporal and spatial variability in pH across the southern North Sea as it relates to the environmental and biological processes affecting CO₂, namely, photosynthesis and respiration, riverine boundary conditions and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Annual pH ranges are found to vary from < 0.2 in areas of low biological activity to > 1.0 in areas influenced by riverine signals, consistent with observations and previous studies. It is shown that benthic, as well as pelagic, activity is an important factor in this variability. The acidification of the region due to increased fluxes of atmospheric CO₂ into the marine system is calculated and shown to exceed, on average, 0.1 pH units over the next 50 years and result in a total acidification of 0.5 pH units below pre-industrial levels at atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of 1000 ppm. The potential for measurable changes in biogeochemistry are demonstrated by simulating the observed inhibition of pelagic nitrification with decreasing pH. However, we conclude that there is a lack of knowledge of how acidification might affect the complex interaction of processes that govern marine biogeochemical cycles and a consequent need for further research and observations.     

About the seasonal variability of the Alboran Sea circulation

Data from a mooring line deployed midway between the Alboran Island and Cape Tres Forcas are used to study the time variability of the Alboran Sea from May 1997 to May 1998. The upper layer salinity and zonal velocity present annual and semiannual cycles characterised by a minimum in spring and autumn and a maximum in summer and winter. Temperature has the opposite behaviour to that of salinity indicating changes in the presence of the Atlantic water within the Alboran Passage. A large set of SST images is used to study these cycles. The decrease of salinity and velocity in our mooring location in spring and autumn seems to be related to the eastward drifting of the Western Alboran Gyre (WAG). The increase of salinity and velocity is caused by the Atlantic current flowing south of the Alboran Island and its associated thermohaline front. Conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) data from two cruises along the 3°W are coherent with current meters and SST interpretations.During the period analysed, summer months are characterised by the stability of the two-gyre system, while in winter, the circulation is characterised by a coastal jet flowing close to the African shore. We use sea level differences across the Strait of Gibraltar for studying the variability of the Atlantic inflow. We discuss the changes in the Alboran Sea circulation and its relation with the variability of the inertial radius of the Atlantic inflow. Though our results are speculative, we find a possible relation between the disappearance of the two-gyre system and a reversal of the circulation in Gibraltar. Longer time series are needed to conclude, but comparison with previous works makes us think that the seasonal cycle described from May 1997 to May 1998 could be the most likely one for the Alboran Sea upper layer.     

Large-scale physical controls on phytoplankton growth in the Irminger Sea, Part II: Model study of the physical and meteorological preconditioning

The upper water column in the Irminger Sea is characterized by cold fresh arctic and subarctic waters and warm saline North Atlantic waters. In this study the local physical and meteorological preconditioning of the phytoplankton development over an annual cycle in the upper water column in four physical zones of the Irminger Sea is investigated. Data from four cruises of the UK's Marine Productivity programme are combined with results from a coupled biological–physical nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus model run using realistic forcing. The observations and model predictions are compared and analyzed to identify the key parameters and processes which determine the observed heterogeneity in biological production in the Irminger Sea. The simulations show differences in the onset of the bloom, in the time of the occurrence of the maximum phytoplankton biomass and in the length of the bloom between the zones. The longest phytoplankton bloom of 90 days duration was predicted for the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone. In contrast, for the Central Irminger Sea zone a phytoplankton bloom with a start at the beginning of May and the shortest duration of only 70 days was simulated. The latest onset of the phytoplankton bloom in mid May and the latest occurrence of the maximum biomass (end of July) were predicted for the Northern Irminger Current zone. Here the bloom lasted for 80 days. In contrast the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Irminger Current zone started at the same time as in Central Irminger Sea, but peaked end of June and lasted for 80 days. For all four zones relatively low daily (0.3–0.5 g C m^− 2d^− 1) and annual primary production was simulated, ranging between 35.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone and 45.6 g C m^− 2y^− 1 in the Northern Irminger Current zone. The model successfully simulated the observed regional and spatial differences in terms of the maximum depth of winter mixing, the onset of stratification and the development of the seasonal thermocline, and the differences in biological characteristics between the zones. The initial properties of the water column and the seasonal cycle of physical and meteorological forcing in each of the zones are responsible for the observed differences during the Marine Productivity cruises. The timing of the transition from mixing to stratification regime, and the different prevailing light levels in each zone are identified as the crucial processes/parameters for the understanding of the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Irminger Sea.     

A numerical transport model for predicting the distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea: the sensitivity of model results to the uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs

A new transport model for metals (named NOSTRADAMUS) has been developed to predict concentrations and distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea. NOSTRADAMUS is comprised of components for water, inorganic and organic suspended particulate matter transport; a primary production module contributes to the latter component. Metal exchange between dissolved (water) and total suspended particulate matter (inorganic + organic) phases is driven by distribution coefficients. Transport is based on an existent 2-D vertically integrated model, incorporating a 35 × 35 km grid. NOSTRADAMUS is largely driven by data obtained during the Natural Environment Research Council North Sea Project (NERC NSP). The sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs has been tested. Results are reported for a winter period (January 1989) when plankton production was low. Simulated ranges in concentrations in regions influenced by the largest inflows, i.e. the NE English coast and the Southern Bight, are similar to the ranges in the errors of the concentrations estimated at the northern and southern open sea boundaries of the model. Inclusion of uncertainties with respect to atmospheric (up to ± 54%) and riverine (± 30%) inputs makes little difference to the calculated concentrations of both dissolved and particulate fractions within the southern North Sea. When all the errors associated with the inputs are included there is good agreement between computed and observed concentrations, and that for dissolved and particulate Cd, Cu and Zn, and dissolved Ni and Pb, many of the observations fall within, or are close to, the range of values generated by the model. For particulate Pb, model simulations predict concentrations of the right order, but do not reproduce the large scatter in actual concentrations, with simulated concentrations showing a bias towards lower values compared to those observed. A factor which could have contributed to observed concentrations, and which is not included in the model, is considered to be a substantial benthic input of dissolved lead during this winter period, coupled to a rapid and extensive scavenging of the dissolved lead to particles. Significant reductions in riverine and aeolian inputs of total Cd and Cu of 70% and 50%, respectively, consistent with aims of North Sea Conferences, are predicted to lead to minor decreases (~ 10%) in water column concentrations of dissolved and particulate Cd and Cu, except near river sources, where maximum reductions of ~ 30–40% may occur.     

Variability of mesozooplankton spatial distribution in the North Aegean Sea, as influenced by the Black Sea waters outflow

The North Aegean Sea constitutes an important region of the Mediterranean Sea since in its eastern part the mesotrophic, low salinity and relatively cold water from the Black Sea (outflowing from the Dardanelles strait) meets the oligotrophic, warm and very saline water of Levantine origin, thus forming a thermohaline front. Mesozooplankton samples were collected at discrete layers according to the hydrology of the upper 100 m, during May 1997 and September 1998. In May highest biomass and abundance values (up to 66.82 mg m^− 3 and 14,157 ind m^− 3) were detected in the 10–20 m layer (within the halocline) of the stations positioned close to the Dardanelles strait. The front moved slightly southwards in September, characterized by high biomass and abundance values within the halocline layer. The areas moderately or non influenced by Black Sea water revealed lower standing stock values than the frontal area in both cruises and maxima were detected in the uppermost low salinity layer. Samples collected at the stations and/or layers more influenced by Black Sea water were distinguished from those collected at layers and/or stations more affected by Levantine waters in both periods. In May the former samples were characterized by the copepods Acartia clausi, Centropages typicus, Paracalanus parvus. The abundance of the above species decreased gradually with increasing salinity, in the horizontal and/or in the vertical dimension, with a parallel increase of the copepods Oithona plumifera, Oithona copepodites, Oncaea media, Ctenocalanus vanus, Farranula rostrata. During September the frontal area as well as that covered by the modified Black Sea water, were highly dominated by the cladoceran Penilia avirostris and doliolids. For both seasons, MDS plots, issued from the combination of mesozooplankton and water-type data, revealed the gradual differentiation of zooplankton composition from the frontal area towards the area covered by Levantine water, following the spreading and mixing of the Black sea water. The observed temporal and spatial variability in the distribution pattern of mesozooplankton standing stock and species composition seems to depend considerably on the variability of circulation and frontal flows.     

Assessment of sea surface temperature observational networks in the Baltic Sea and North Sea

The satellite and in situ Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observational networks in the Baltic Sea and North Sea are evaluated based on the quality of the gridded SST products generated from the networks. A multi-indicator approach is applied in the assessment. It includes evaluation of data quality, effective data coverage, field reconstruction error and model nowcast error. The results show that the best available full-coverage SST product is generated by assimilating the SST observations to obtain a yearly mean model bias of 0.07 °C and RMSE of 0.64 °C. The effective data coverage rate is 31% by using AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data from NOAA (National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration) satellites 12, 14 and 16. The data redundancy increases rapidly with the number of infrared sensors. Using either NOAA satellite 12 or all 3 satellites makes a small difference with regard to derived effective coverage and the ocean model nowcast error. The influence of using the in situ SST observations in the SST field reconstruction is negligibly small. Instead, the major role of in situ SST observations is in calibrating the satellite observations. To study the relative importance of data quality and data coverage, an assessment is done for two satellite products: one product is based entirely on NOAA 12 data and has larger coverage but lower quality. The other product is a subset of the SAF products (derived from NOAA 14 and 16) and has lower coverage but higher quality. Based on current monitoring, modelling and assimilation technology, the results suggest that the data quality is an important factor in further improving the quality of the gridded SST products. Recommendations are made for possible further improvements of the existing SST observational networks.     

Biogenic silica cycle in surface sediments of the Greenland Sea

In contrast to several investigations of biogenic silica (BSi) content and recycling in surface sediments of the Southern Ocean, little is known about the benthic cycle of BSi in high northern latitudes. Therefore, we investigated the silicic acid concentration of pore water and BSi content of surface sediments from the Greenland Sea. Low BSi contents of less than 2% were observed. High-resolution (2–5 mm) BSi profiles and comparisons to trap studies suggest that only relatively dissolution-resistant siliceous components reach the seafloor. Pore water investigations reveal BSi fluxes of more than 300 mmol m⁻² a⁻¹ only for a few sites on the shelf. A statistically significant relationship between water depth and BSi rain rate reaching the seafloor was not observed. Sampling along a transect perpendicular to the marginal ice zone (MIZ) revealed no enhanced rain rate of BSi reaching the seafloor in the vicinity of the ice edge. Although the MIZ of the Greenland Sea is characterized by the enhanced export of biogenic particles from surface waters, this feature is not reflected in the benthic cycle of biogenic silica. The lack of such a relationship, which is in contrast to observations of shelf and continental margin sediments in the southern South Atlantic, is probably caused by the enhanced dissolution of BSi in the water column and highly dynamic ice conditions in the Greenland Sea.     

Planktonic community structure and carbon cycling in the Arabian Sea as a result of monsoonal forcing: the application of a generic model

The Arabian Sea exhibits a complex pattern of biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, which vary both seasonally and spatially. These dynamics have been studied using a one-dimensional vertical hydrodynamic model coupled to a complex ecosystem model, simulating the annual cycle at three contrasting stations. These stations are characterised by seasonally upwelling, mixed-layer-deepening and a-seasonal oligotrophic conditions, respectively, and coincide with extensively measured stations on the two JGOFS ARABESQUE cruises in 1994. The model reproduces many spatial and temporal trends in production, biomass, physical and chemical properties, both qualitatively and quantitatively and so gives insight into the main mechanisms responsible for the biogeochemical and ecological complexity. Monsoonal systems are typified by classical food web dynamics, whilst intermonsoonal and oligotrophic systems are dominated by the microbial loop. The ecosystem model (ERSEM), developed for temperate regions, is found to be applicable to the Arabian Sea system with little reparameterisation. Differences in in-situ physical forcing are sufficient to recreate contrasting eutrophic and oligotrophic systems, although the lack of lateral terms are probably the greatest source of error in the model. Physics, nutrients, light and grazing are all shown to play a role in controlling production and community structure. Small-celled phytoplanktons are predicted to be dominant and sub-surface chlorophyll maxima are robust centers of production during intermonsoon periods. Analysis of carbon fluxes indicate that physically driven outgassing of CO₂ predominates in monsoonal upwelling systems but ecological activity may significantly moderate CO₂ outgassing in the Arabian Sea interior.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

Inter-comparing five forecast operational systems in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins: The MERSEA-strand1 methodology

The methodology to achieve a real time inter-comparison of five state-of-the-art operational forecast systems for the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins is presented. All systems provide analysis and near real-time prediction of the three-dimensional ocean through Opendap servers. A standard set of diagnostics called metrics, is described. Definition and examples of metrics are given. An inter-comparison of the five systems is conducted over a 1 year period using those metrics. It is shown that the methodology developed allows a successful inter-comparison. It has been adopted by the GODAE community. It is also shown that the systems are consistent with the current knowledge of the ocean circulation and climatologies. Systems are deficient in the representation of specific water masses characteristics as Mode waters. Data assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity solve such deficiencies. Metrics also allow a monitoring of the system's North Atlantic overturning stream function and will allow detecting any changes in the coming year system's thermohaline circulation.     

A Mean Dynamic Topography of the Mediterranean Sea computed from altimetric data, in-situ measurements and a general circulation model

In the Mediterranean Sea, where the mean circulation is largely unknown and characterized by smaller scales and less intensity than in the open ocean, the interpretation of altimetric Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) is rather difficult. In the context of operational systems such as MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting System) or MERCATOR, that assimilate the altimetric information, the estimation of a realistic Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) consistent with altimetric SLA to be used to reconstruct absolute sea level is a crucial issue. A method is developed here to estimate the required MDT combining oceanic observations as altimetric and in-situ measurements and outputs from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM).In a first step, the average over the 1993–1999 period of dynamic topography outputs from MFS OGCM provides a first guess for the computation of the MDT. Then, in a second step, drifting buoy velocities and altimetric data are combined using a synthetic method to obtain local estimates of the mean geostrophic circulation which are then used to improve the first guess through an inverse technique and map the MDT field (hereafter the Synthetic Mean Dynamic Topography or SMDT) on a 1/8° resolution grid.Many interesting current patterns and cyclonic/anticyclonic structures are visible on the SMDT obtained. The main Mediterranean coastal currents are well marked (as the Algerian Current or the Liguro–Provenço–Catalan Current). East of the Sicily channel, the Atlantic Ionian Stream divides into several main branches crossing the Ionian Sea at various latitudes before joining at 19°E into a unique Mid-Mediterranean Jet. Also, strong signatures of the main Mediterranean eddies are obtained (as for instance the Alboran gyre, the Pelops, Ierapetra, Mersa-Matruh or Shikmona anticyclones and the Cretan, Rhodes or West Cyprius cyclones). Independent in-situ measurements from Sea Campaigns NORBAL in the North Balearic Sea and the North Tyrrhenian Sea and SYMPLEX in the Sicily channel are used to validate locally the SMDT: deduced absolute altimetric dynamic topography compares well with in-situ observations. Finally, the SMDT is used to compute absolute altimetric maps in the Alboran Sea and the Algerian Current. The use of absolute altimetric signal allows to accurately follow the formation and propagation of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies in both areas.