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航运项目投资决策风险分析初探 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
姚伟福 《上海海运学院学报》1997,18(1):53-59
对国内外航运项目投资决策风险及其概率分析方法作了探讨,并结合案例分析,应用决策树法进行了风险分析,同时,利用计算机轮换民进行模拟分析,最后提出了航运项目投资决策风险规避的基本方法。 相似文献
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国际航运是一项历史悠久的服务产业,各国政府都极为重视本国航运业的发展,绝大多数国家都采取多种航运政策来发展本国船队.部分企业在本国政府的航运补贴、货载保留、造船补贴、反托拉斯中豁免等保护政策的支持下,通过自身的良好经营,规模越来越大,实力越来越强.如当前世界20大班轮公司占有世界班轮艘数的70%及箱位的56%. 相似文献
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近十年来,由于国家经济体制的改革,以及公路、铁路、航空等交通基础建设的飞速发展,航运企业在前所未有的经济和建设浪潮中遭受到巨大冲击,特别是在经济欠发达的贵州省,由于该省多为内陆山区河流,航道等级低,基础设施差,船舶建造时间长,科技含量低.大部分航运企业自20世纪90年代始逐渐陷入困境,除少数中型企业受国家扶持尚可勉强支撑外,许多小型集体企业纷纷倒闭破产,大量从业人员也纷纷转行,航运企业走到了一个生死决策的紧要关头. 相似文献
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浅析国有大型航运企业适应航运市场变化的策略洪流世界贸易总值的绝大部分是通过海运业来实现空间位移的,世界经济发展与否。直接影响着航运业的兴衰,因此,航运企业必须密切注视世界经济的发展,了解航运市场的变化,制定自身发展的战略和战术,提高在航运市场中的竞争... 相似文献
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Peter B. Marlow 《Maritime Policy and Management》1991,18(2):123-138
Governments may often try to stimulate investment in their own country by altering the climate in which such decisions are made. They achieve this by means of fiscal and financial regimes which may offer investment incentives for particular forms of investment and/or favourable financial arrangements to facilitate the purchase of particular assets. This paper discusses the form which such incentives might take and considers the literature to examine how such incentives have been perceived by businessmen whose actions they are intended to influence. 相似文献
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Peter B. Marlow 《Maritime Policy and Management》1991,18(3):201-216
This paper concentrates on the shipping industry and considers the forms of fiscal and financial incentives which are used by different governments to promote or encourage investment in their shipping industry. The analysis reduces the various packages of investment incentives and loan arrangements to a common measurement—the net present value of the package—and uses this to draw international comparisons and rankings. The results are based on different values of rates of return in the shipping industry and under certain assumptions concerning the rate of inflation and the rate of discount. Differences in loan arrangements have also been incorporated. The particular results are valid only for the specified circumstances but the methodology is generally applicable. 相似文献
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针对新型装备研制经费投资分析问题,基于研制经费的数据特点和变化趋势特征以及灰色系统理论的独特优势,提出采用灰色Verhulst模型用于新型装备研制经费的投资分析。考虑到传统Verhulst模型中基于最小二乘的参数估计方法对年度投资变化较大时所出现的不适应性,提出采用粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)算法优化模型参数,进而确定对新项目的年度经费投资额。应用分析表明,灰色Verhulst模型能较好适应数据的变化规律,同时基于PSO算法的参数优化方法较最小二乘法能得到更好地结果,可以用于指导研制经费的进度付款和合同签订。 相似文献
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