Estimation of gap acceptance parameters within and across the population from direct roadside observation

This paper explores the feasibility of maximum likelihood as an approach to determine the parameters of gap acceptance functions when these functions vary from individual to individual. Specifically, it is shown that it is theoretically possible to estimate the average critical gap of a population of drivers (or pedestrians) and its variance, within and across individuals, from direct roadside observations. Although the Multinomial Probit Model provides a natural theoretical framework for the estimation of these parameters, the model seems not to be statistically estimable for this particular problem. It was shown, however, that if one of the parameters is known, the other two become estimable and a two-stage estimation process that takes into account this phenomenon can be utilized. The technique is demonstrated with the 203-driver data set included in Appendix A. The Multinomial Probit Model can also be used to determine simultaneously the mean critical gap, the mean critical lag (the first gap considered by a driver), and the variances of these. For the data set in Appendix A, the mean critical gap was significantly smaller than the mean critical lag, as one might expect. The techniques proposed in this paper have the further advantage of being statistically efficient with large data sets and of not requiring a panel of individuals to be observed under controlled conditions.     

Selected node-pair analysis in dial's assignment algorithm

An algorithm is proposed to calculate the matrix of trips which use a particular link in a road network or alternatively pass through a particular set of nodes given the route-splitting assumptions inherent in the Dial assignment algorithm.     

Further aspects of rectangular routeing in Smeed's City

Two types of routeing on a rectangular system of roads are examined in a simple circular city where homes and workplaces are uniformly and independently distributed. Expressions for the number of vehicles crossing a given line segment, the average distance travelled by a commuter and the total number of crossings of vehicle paths in the city are derived. Comparisons are made with other routeing systems in terms of average distance travelled, expected number of crossings and average travel time.     

Parameter estimation for the peak traffic model

In a previous article a model was developed for predicting the temporal distribution of peak traffic demand, and the model is sensitive to the determining cost parameters whose values were not known. These costs are the cost to late and early arrivals at work and the cost to delays in the system while travelling. In this paper, using the method of least squares, representative values for these cost parameters are estimated for both the Southbound and Northbound traffic using the Sydney Harbour Bridge during the morning peak period. The resulting estimates show that a traveller tends to attach much higher cost to delays than to earliness or lateness to work; although the relative cost he attaches to lateness is higher than he attaches to earliness.     

Some remarks on Wilson's gravity model and a slight generalization of it

The aim of this note is to establish some connections between Wilson's gravity model, Jaynes' principle of maximum entropy, Kullback's divergence, Watanabe's measure of connection, the minimum information principle of Snickars and Weibull and Guiasu's principle of minimum interdependence as a special form of Kullback's minimum divergence. A slight generalization of Wilson's gravity model is proposed.     

Predicting electronic toll collection service adoption: An integration of the technology acceptance model and the theory of planned behavior

In order to reduce the number of vehicles stuck in congestion, especially for stop-and-go traffic at toll plazas, the establishment of electronic toll collection (ETC) systems has been a hot issue and dominant trend in many countries. Taiwan has joined the crowd, adding an ETC system to its toll roads in early 2006. However, despite the potential benefits for motorists, the utilization rate has been lower than expected during the introductory stage. The objective of this study is to advance our understanding on the critical antecedents of motorists’ intention of ETC service adoption by integrating both technology acceptance model (TAM) and theory of planned behavior (TPB) perspectives. Through empirical data collection and analysis from highway motorists who had not installed on-board units (OBU) for ETC service in Taiwan, we found that system attributes, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, indeed, positively engender motorists’ attitudes towards ETC service adoption. Moreover, results also reveal that attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioral control positively influence the intention of ETC system adoption. Implications for practitioners and researchers, and suggestions for future research are also addressed in this study.     

The econometric estimation of airports’ cost function

The econometric estimation of cost functions has been proposed in the literature as a suitable approach in order to obtain estimations of marginal costs, efficiency levels and scale elasticities for transport industries. However, regarding the airport industry, no significant attention has been paid in developing an airport-specific estimation methodology rather than adapting the procedures applied to other industries. The lack of comparable airport data is one of the causes which could explain the scarcity of this literature in the past, as well as the use of very limited approaches to explain airport technology. This paper tries to overcome these limitations by developing an airport-specific methodology to estimate a multi-output long-run cost function using an unbalanced pooled database on 161 airports worldwide. The specification of hedonically-adjusted aircraft operations, domestic and international passengers, cargo and commercial revenues in the output vector, as well as the calculation of input prices are discussed. Both technical and allocative inefficiencies are specified in the model using a Stochastic Frontier method that has been estimated through Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Gravity model estimation with proxy variables and the impact of endogeneity on transportation planning

This study presents an alternative method for estimating gravity models by multiple linear regression that is based on proxy variables, thus circumventing the endogeneity problems arising when least-squares estimators are used. The proxy variable approach generates consistent estimators for a gravity model without endogeneity bias. The presence of endogeneity is tested for using statistical tests developed specifically for our application.We conclude that proxy variables eliminate the endogeneity and produce consistent estimators in gravity models estimated using least squares. We also find, however, that endogeneity bias has no significant impact either on gravity model prediction or on urban transportation system planning processes based on such models.     

A system dynamics model of CO2 mitigation in China’s inter-city passenger transport

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from transportation has become increasingly important and challenging especially for developing countries. This paper takes the inter-city passenger transport in China as a case, and develops a system dynamics model for policy assessment and CO₂ mitigation potential analysis. It is found that the future demand for China’s inter-city passenger transport is expected to be large, with the turnover volume growing at a rate of 9% per annum and amounting to 6600 billion p-km in 2020. Major emissions reduction potential exists in inter-city passenger transport. In 2020, comparing to the case without any specific policies stressing mitigation, the reduction of CO₂ emissions ranges from 26% to 32% under those scenarios with policy controls. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the CO₂ mitigation will be best achieved by accelerating the development of railway network, together with slowing down the extension of highway network and imposing fuel taxes.     

Estimating gravity model parameters: A simplified approach based on the odds ratio

Two computationally simple methods for calibrating the gravity model are presented in this paper. The use of each is demonstrated on several origin-destination trip tables, and the results compared with those obtained from the UTP system gravity model calibration procedure. Our methods, based on the odds ratio, perform at least as well as that of UTP system by several standard criteria.     

Literature review on surveys investigating the acceptance of automated vehicles

Due to the potential of automated vehicles to offer a multitude of advantages to the travelers and therefore influence their daily routines, it is essential to monitor the public’s opinion on this particular technological development. The goal of a number of surveys in recent years was therefore not only to elicit the general acceptance of the technology but to additionally explore when, how and why respondents were inclined to make use of it. This is the first literature review on surveys regarding automated vehicles with the intention to investigate the various methods currently being applied and the conclusions they lead to. In addition to comparing the general results in terms of the distributions of the response variables, the surveyed explanatory variables are categorized and analyzed according to their influence in different experiments. Based on these investigations, this review identifies research gaps that can be addressed in future experiments.     

Reactance or acceptance? Reactions towards the introduction of road pricing

We tested the opposite predictions of reactance and dissonance theory, two popular psychological theories, with regard to the responses of car drivers to the introduction of the road pricing. Reactance theory predicts that persons who are convinced that a toll will come are more opposed than less convinced persons. In contrast, dissonance theory expects that convinced persons are more in favour of road pricing than less convinced persons. Aim of the study was to test which theory is more appropriate to explain user reactions towards the toll introduction. We experimentally manipulated the perceived likelihood (low, middle, high and a control condition) of a toll introduction for private cars on German motorways (N = 140 car drivers). In accordance with the predictions of dissonance theory, results revealed clearly that convinced persons about a definite introduction of road pricing developed more positive attitudes towards road pricing than less convinced persons, i.e., the strength of conviction about the introduction of road pricing has a strong effect on the attitudinal evaluation of road pricing. The implications are discussed.     

Some estimation results of a simultaneous model of auto ownership and mode choice to work

This paper describes the theory, development and estimation of a simultaneous disaggregate model of automobile ownership and mode to work choices. The motivation for such a model and the general theory of the simultaneous probabilistic choice model are briefly discussed. The general model specification and the set of choices assumed to be available to each household is then considered. Finally, the variables used in the model are defined and the estimation results are presented.     

Origin-destination matrices estimation model using automatic vehicle identification data and its application to the Han-Shin expressway network

The Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system was recently installed in expressway networks in Japan. License plate numbers of passing vehicles are monitored through roadside AVI cameras and then recognized. This paper shows the formulation of origin and destination (OD) matrices estimation model using the observed data with the AVI system. The results of license plate matching between a pair of AVI cameras are involved as the input variables. The formulated model is a least squares model and yields to the linear transformation of the partly observed OD matrices. The model is applied to the Kobe corridor line in the Han-Shin expressway network. It is found that the estimated OD matrix is consistent with the one using the previous mail survey. The proposed estimation method is expected to investigate the day-to-day fluctuations of OD patterns in the expressway network.     

营运性驾驶员适应性检测推广方案研究

结合营运性驾驶员管理的现状及驾驶适应性检测的重要性,本文提出将营运性驾驶员适应性检测方案推广应用于营运性驾驶员的准入机制、继续教育培训、退出机制等安全管理过程中,为营运性驾驶员的安全管理提供了有效的保障措施。     

Easing or tightening control strategies: determination of COVID-19 parameters for an agent-based model

Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.

     

The origin of California’s zero emission vehicle mandate

The California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) rule, adopted in 1990, is arguably one of the most daring and controversial air quality policies ever adopted. Some consider it a policy failure, while others credit it with launching a revolution in clean automotive technology. This paper is the first systematic empirical study of the policy process that resulted in the adoption of the ZEV mandate. We draw upon theoretical frameworks of the policy process, empirical data from public documents, and personal interviews with key stakeholders, to explain how a confluence of technology, policy, and political circumstances created a window of opportunity that led to the adoption of this policy. We expect the conclusions of our analysis to be useful to other policy debates that involve technological innovation.     

清管器皮碗在不同过盈量下的接触应力分析

在清管过程中,清管器的皮碗与管道之间过盈配合,不同过盈量时两者间的接触应力不同。采用有限元方法分析4种典型皮碗过盈量分别为1%~10%时的最大接触应力、接触长度以及接触应力的分布规律。结果表明:直板皮碗的最大接触应力随过盈量增大呈近似线性增加趋势,其接触长度取决于厚度;锥形皮碗和碟形皮碗,最大接触应力在较大过盈量时增加缓慢,但接触长度明显增加;圆形皮碗最大接触应力小,但接触长度大。     

脱挂式抱索器综合评述

单线脱挂式客运索道已经成为现代客运索道发展的主流,其心脏部分和技术关键——脱挂式抱索器的详细结构与真实性能却鲜为人知。由于众所周知的原因,国内外刊物亦极少披露。本自作最近撰写的专题报告的前半部分,中剖析了我国单线脱挂式客运索道发展缓慢的原因,介绍了脱挂式抱索器的演变与现状,分析了最常用抱索器的结构与特点,制定了严格的评价标准,采用了独特的评价方法,全面评价了最常用抱索器的各种性能,对我国研究、设计、引进、消化、管理和维修单线脱挂式客运索道将会产生深远的影响。     

The effects of trait anxiety and the big five personality traits on self-driving car acceptance

Transportation - Self-driving cars are expected to be integrated into the traffic system in the near future. It is crucial to understand how the public accepts self-driving cars and how adoption...