What is induced traffic?

Investment in new or up-graded roads both raises the level and alters the pattern of accessibility over the whole area served by the road system. Vehicle-users will perceive the opportunities that this increased accessibility offers and respond in various ways, most of which can lead to more rather than less travel on the system. To the extent that travel increases overall, it can be said to have been induced by the road-improvement. Conversely, congestion as it spreads on the network will deter some travel and can be said to have a traffic suppression effect.The purpose of this first paper is to spell out, as clearly as possible, what is meant by induced traffic and to relate its various components to the full range of behavioural responses by travellers. In doing so, it draws upon the recently published (December 1994) report by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) and response by the UK Government. The paper concludes with some of the implications of induced/suppressed traffic for current methods of forecasting and evaluation of road investment, which are covered in more detail by subsequent authors.     

Capabilities and Radicalism: Engineering Accessibility in the 21st century

Abstract

Engineering bridges the gap between, on the one hand, that mix of philosophy and politics that we call policy and, on the other, the physical implementation of the means to put policy into practice. Starting with a brief outline of the nature of accessibility, why it is important and how in some cases a person might be disabled by a lack of accessibility, this article – based on the author's Inaugural Lecture given at University College London in February 2005 – turns to consider how a person's needs challenge their capabilities (i.e. what they can do) and considers a radical approach to understanding people's capabilities in the implementation process. Next, the formation of policy intentions in order to permit, encourage and implement the engineering of appropriate solutions is discussed and conclusions drawn about how this affects work in the transport domain. Perhaps we need to look at the world in a different way before we can make it a better place.     

Airline flight scheduling for oligopolistic competition with direct flights and a point to point network

In this research, we consider a flight scheduling problem for oligopolistic competition with direct flights and a point to point network. In this type of market situation, passengers are sensitive to the departure time of a flight rather than the transfer time. The airline needs to carefully consider the departure times of their competitors when determining their own. Therefore, unlike past approaches which have only considered one departure time for a competitor's flight, a flight scheduling framework is developed which takes into consideration possible competitor departure times. The framework includes two dependent stages which are repeatedly solved during the solution process. In addition, an upper bound model is also designed to evaluate the solution quality. Numerical tests are performed using data for Taiwan's outlying island route which is characterized by the above market situation. Satisfactory results are obtained, showing the good performance of the framework. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Airline hubbing and airport economics in the pacific market

Transpacific hubbing over Tokyo's Narita airport, which is beset by severe capacity problems while serving a high proportion of nonlocal passengers, is explored from both a historical and an economic standpoint. Tokyo developed into Asia's dominant transpacific gateway because it was within range of the continental U.S. for the first generation of transcontinental jets. Its dominance continued after the introduction of the B747, while a more dispersed pattern of service developed on the U.S. side of the transpacific route system. Reasons for Tokyo's continuing dominance include its strong local market and the liberal fifth freedom rights of U.S. airlines out of Tokyo. A model of airline network competition is applied to the U.S.-Asia market. The model simulates the behavior of profit-maximizing airlines with different network types and hub locations, finding states of Cournot equilibrium. In a baseline run corresponding to the 3rd Quarter, 1985 system, the predicted transpacific network corresponds quite closely to the actual one. The impacts of demand growth, high terminal costs at Tokyo, and strengthened connectivity of alternative Asia hubs are then explored. Tokyo traffic is found to increase at a somewhat slower pace than overall demand as new non-stop services become feasible. Connecting traffic through Tokyo is found to be highly price sensitive because of the availability of alternative routings. Strengthening the connectivity of alternative Asian hubs, on the other hand, has a fairly modest effect on the distribution of traffic in the system. The results point to the need for Japan to carefully assess the costs and benefits of its role as Asia's dominant transpacific gateway.     

Automated vehicles: exploring possible consequences of government (non)intervention for congestion and accessibility

ABSTRACT

Academic research on automated vehicles (AVs) has to date been dominated by the fields of engineering and computer science. Questions of how this potentially transformative technology should be governed remain under-researched and tend to concentrate on governing the technology’s early development. We respond in this paper by exploring the possible longer-term effect of government (lack of) intervention.

The paper tests the hypothesis that a “laissez-faire” governance approach is likely to produce less desirable outcomes in a scenario of mass uptake of AVs than would a well-planned set of government interventions. This is done using two prominent themes in transport policy – traffic flow and accessibility – in a scenario of high market penetration of Level-5 automated vehicles in capitalist market economies. The evidence used is drawn from a literature review and from the findings of a set of workshops with stakeholders.

We suggest that a laissez-faire approach will lead to an increase in traffic volume as a result of a growing population of “drivers” and a probable increase in kilometres driven per passenger. At the same time, the hoped-for increases in network efficiency commonly claimed are not guaranteed to come about without appropriate government intervention. The likely consequence is an increase in congestion. And, with respect to accessibility, it is likely that the benefits of AVs will be enjoyed by wealthier individuals and that the wider impacts of AV use (including sprawl) may lead to a deterioration in accessibility for those who depend on walking, cycling or collective transport.

We consider the range of possible government intervention in five categories: Planning/land-use; Regulation/policy; Infrastructure/technology; Service provision; and Economic instruments. For each category, we set out a series of interventions that might be used by governments (at city, region or state level) to manage congestion or protect accessibility in the AV scenario described. Many of these (e.g. road pricing) are already part of the policy mix but some (e.g. ban empty running of AVs) would be new. We find that all interventions applicable to the management of traffic flow would also be expected to contribute to the management of accessibility; we define a small number of additional interventions aimed at protecting the accessibility of priority groups.

Our general finding is that the adoption of a package of these interventions could be expected to lead to better performance against generic traffic-flow and accessibility objectives than would a laissez-faire approach, though questions of extent of application remain.

In our conclusions, we contrast laissez-faire with both anticipatory governance and “precautionary” governance and acknowledge the political difficulty associated with acting in the context of uncertainty. We point out that AVs do not represent the first emerging technology to offer both opportunities and risks and challenge governments at all levels to acknowledge the extent of their potential influence and, in particular, to examine methodically the options available to them and the potential consequences of pursuing them.     

Environmental traffic management — The end of the road?

This paper questions some aspects of the technical soundness and public acceptability of environmental traffic management scheme of the kind advocated in the Buchanan report, Traffic in Towns. Practical studies have shown that in inner city areas in particular, and perhaps older built-up areas in general, the concept cannot be adequately defended against a wealth of variety of criticism from those whom it most directly affects, i.e. the public. Participation exercises have revealed public fears that the road closures associated with schemes will ruin the viability of local shops, worsen the environmental conditions along local roads chosen as distributors, cause even greater congestion on the main road network due to displaced traffic, and impede the accessibility of local people to their homes. In the light of these, it is suggested a flexible policy be adopted incorporating changes to the forms of vehicles and the manner in which they are used as well as changes to the physical form of the road network.The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the organisations to which the authors are attached.     

Relationships among service quality,corporate image,customer satisfaction,and behavioral intention for the elderly in high speed rail services

Since the Taiwan High Speed Rail operations, Taiwan's transportation market entered into a new era. Because of its competitive service of speed, convenience, environmental concerns and comfort, the High Speed Rail has not only made significant changes but has played a significant role in Taiwan's transportation. However, Taiwan now is an aging society. Due to the physical constraints among the elderly, demands to redesign the traffic system and maintain transportation safety are essential considerations. In the current market, Taiwan's transportation construction is facing fewer barriers; however, it must still improve, especially considering the health of the elderly. Thus, this study investigates elderly passengers' demands and further examined the relationships among service quality, corporate image, customer satisfaction, and behavioral intention. According to empirical analytical results based on structural equation modeling (N = 341), satisfaction directly affected travel behaviors, while service quality and corporate image played indirect roles. In addition, service quality plays a significant role on the effect of satisfaction. This study provides empirical evidence to indicate the quality of the accessible environment affects not only the effectiveness and efficiency of service quality, but also, the corporate image. The results provide valuable references for critically managing the elderly's usage of the high speed rail transportation service. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Market for Transportation-Land Use Integration: Do Developers Want Smarter Growth than Regulations Allow?

Transportation and land use research of the past decade has focused in large part on the question of whether manipulating land uses in the direction of smart growth alternatives can reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or otherwise improve travel behavior. Yet the notion of manipulating land uses implies that the alternative is somehow self-organized or market-based. This view appears to underestimate the extent to which current planning interventions in the United States – largely focused on lowering development densities, mandating ample road and parking designs, and separating land uses – impose an auto-oriented template on most new development. Rather than a market failure, the paucity of smart growth alternatives may be a planning failure – the result of municipal regulatory exclusion. This problem definition would shift the burden of proof for policy reform, as uncertainty in travel-behavior benefits would hardly justify the continuation of exclusionary regulations. If municipal regulations in fact constrain alternatives to low-density, auto-oriented development, one would expect developers to perceive unsatisfied market interest in such development. This article studies, through a national survey (676 respondents), US developers' perceptions of the market for pedestrian-and transit-oriented development forms. Overall, respondents perceive considerable market interest in alternative development forms, but believe that there is inadequate supply of such alternatives relative to market demand. Developer-respondents attribute this gap between supply and demand principally to local government regulation. When asked how the relaxation of these regulations would affect their product, majorities of developers indicated that such liberalization would lead them to develop in a denser and more mixed-use fashion, particularly in close-in suburban locales. Results are interpreted in favor land-policy reform based on the expansion of choice in transportation and land use. This view contrasts with a more prevalent approach which conditions policy interventions on scientific evidence of travel-behavior modification.     

Making do: The effects of a mass transit strike on travel behavior

A brief transit strike in early December 1976 disrupted bus services to the city of Pittsburgh and surrounding Allegheny County. That strike provided an opportunity for testing a variety of approaches to increase ride-sharing and to reduce traffic congestion, and for examining the effect of the strike on traffic congestion and on individual travel behavior. Even though over 60% of the commuters to the CBD use transit, the effects of the strike were relatively mild. There was some increase in traffic flow into the CBD and some spreading of the peak period. The largest proportion of the transit commuters who made trips to the CBD during the strike were dropped off by a non-commuter, increasing highway traffic. The most severe impact was felt by those transit commuters who had no cars in the household; 25% of these commuters (only 3% of the total CBD commuters) stayed home from work on the first day of the strike. Most attempts to mitigate the impact of the strike had little effect, largely because most commuters were able to manage adequately during the short strike. The anticipated parking problem, on which much of the contingency planning was focused, did not emerge, largely because of the use of carpooling and drop-off mode by many of the transit users.     

The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington,DC

Bicycle usage can be affected by colder weather, precipitation, and excessive heat. The research presented here analyzes the effect of weather on the use of the Washington, DC, bikeshare system, exploiting a dataset of all trips made on the system. Hourly weather data, including temperature, rainfall, snow, wind, fog, and humidity levels are linked to hourly usage data. Statistical models linking both number of users and duration of use are estimated. Further, we evaluate trips from bikeshare stations within one quarter mile of Metro (subway) stations at times when Metro is operating. This allows us to determine whether Metro serves as a back-up option when weather conditions are unfavorable for bicycling. Results show that cold temperatures, rain, and high humidity levels reduce both the likelihood of using bikeshare and the duration of trips. Trips taken from bikeshare stations proximate to Metro stations are affected more by rain than trips not proximate to Metro stations and less likely when it is dark. This information is useful for understanding bicycling behavior and also for those planning bikeshare systems in other cities.     

北京驾驶员培训行业需求预测和发展研究

机动车驾驶员的素质能够对城市交通运行产生重大影响,良好的技术水平和高尚道德素质的驾驶员,对于保证城市交通安全运行和人民生命财产的安全至关重要。通过开展驾驶员培训市场需求总量的预测研究,能够有效引导培训市场的合理竞争,提升驾驶员培训行业的高质量发展。本文系统分析了驾驶员培训市场需求预测的方法,以北京驾培市场为实例,基于城市新总规,综合考虑经济社会发展、城市人口变化、城市机动车调控和驾驶证饱和率等多种因素,预测未来培训市场需求情况。根据预测结果和市场培训能力对比,提出了针对行业总量发展的对策建议,也能为国内城市进行驾培需求预测研究和行业发展提供参考。     

The missing link: bicycle infrastructure networks and ridership in 74 US cities

Cities promote strong bicycle networks to support and encourage bicycle commuting. However, the application of network science to bicycle facilities is not very well studied. Previous work has found relationships between the amount of bicycle infrastructure in a city and aggregate bicycle ridership, and between microscopic network structure and individual tripmaking patterns. This study fills the missing link between these two bodies of literature by developing a standard methodology for measuring bicycle facility network quality at the macroscopic level and testing its association with bicycle commuting. Bicycle infrastructure maps were collected for 74 Unites States cities and systematically analyzed to evaluate their network structure. Linear regression models revealed that connectivity and directness are important factors in predicting bicycle commuting after controlling for demographic variables and the size of the city. These findings provide a framework for transportation planners and policymakers to evaluate their local bicycle facility networks and set regional priorities that support nonmotorized travel behavior, and for continued research on the structure and quality of bicycle infrastructure and behavior.     

Indicators of urban accessibility: Theory and application

The concept of accessibility and its related indicators have been in use for a long time, with still diverging interpretations of their significance and formulation. In this paper, a review is made of various existing theoretical bases, with special emphasis on recent behavioural approaches. It is suggested that this theoretical framework now allows a better appraisal of accessibility indicators and precise recommendations are proposed for their practical formulation and use. Various examples are given, especially for disaggregate analysis where a calculation for a given person is proposed instead of the conventional calculation .by a given mode. Finally, the relations between accessibility and trip rate are examined; from a study made in French cities, it is suggested that accessibility is a powerful determinant of trip rate.     

Traffic safety,usability and streetscape effects of new design principles for major urban roads

An important aspect of area-wide traffic calming concepts is the integration of major urban roads, because 70 to 80 percent of all urban accidents occur on major roads. Traffic calming which is primarily based on the locational shift to such main thoroughfares is socially injust, because — in spite of all disturbances on those streets — about one quarter of the urban population live there. Social justice can only be somewhat achieved if the expenditures for traffic calming and streetscaping are not used — as today is most common — for accumulating the advantages in the low traffic side streets, but aimed at a partial balance and compensation for the strains caused by car traffic on the major streets. Some compensatory measures and new design principles will be discussed. Backgrounds are the experience in six German model cities of area-wide traffic calming, several research projects and the discussion about new guidelines for major urban roads. Where traffic and environmental burdens focus, the concentration concept should be extended by compensatory measures. That is the state of discussion in Germany examplified by nine topics.This is an edited version of a speech presented by the author at the International Conference Living and Moving in Cities in Paris, January 1990.     

The Greening of Ports: A Comparison of Port Management Tools Used by Leading Ports in Asia and Europe

Abstract

From the policy and management perspective, this study aims to investigate the port management tools that port/public authorities have at their disposal and then to analyse to what extent the tools are used to enforce or encourage green port development at functional activities of port operations and development. We conduct an exploratory and comparative review based on two axes: on the one hand, the range of tools available to port authorities (pricing, monitoring and measuring, market access control and environmental standard regulation) and on the other hand, the functional activities in ports (shipping traffic, cargo handling and storage operations, intermodal connection, industrial activities, and port expansion). The situations in the leading ports in Asia and Europe, namely Singapore, Shanghai, Antwerp and Rotterdam are studied and compared, whereby the policies' effectiveness is discussed accordingly. Findings show that the ports are particularly mature in exercising environmental standard regulations which reveals that the enforcement approach is more prevalent. The most focused functional activity is shipping traffic which reflects that the ports are driven by the International Maritime Organisation. The respective port authorities in Antwerp and Rotterdam have a higher level of influence on devising green port policy in comparison to the two Asian ports.     

Applying multiple kernel learning and support vector machine for solving the multicriteria and nonlinearity problems of traffic flow prediction

This article proposes to develop a prediction model for traffic flow using kernel learning methods such as support vector machine (SVM) and multiple kernel learning (MKL). Traffic flow prediction is a dynamic problem owing to its complex nature of multicriteria and nonlinearity. Influential factors of traffic flow were firstly investigated; five‐point scale and entropy methods were employed to transfer the qualitative factors into quantitative ones and rank these factors, respectively. Then, SVM and MKL‐based prediction models were developed, with the influential factors and the traffic flow as the input and output variables. The prediction capability of MKL was compared with SVM through a case study. It is proved that both the SVM and MKL perform well in prediction with regard to the accuracy rate and efficiency, and MKL is more preferable with a higher accuracy rate when under proper parameters setting. Therefore, MKL can enhance the decision‐making of traffic flow prediction. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

湛茂阳城市带县域综合交通可达性研究

在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,以湛茂阳城市带18个县域单位为研究对象,通过利用综合交通可达性指数及交通区位优势度、县域内交通连通度和对外通达性三个分指数,全面分析湛江国际机场搬迁前后湛茂阳城市带各县级行政区的交通可达性空间格局特征。结果表明:湛江国际机场搬迁后,湛茂阳城市带综合交通可达性得到明显提升,较高可达性市县区由7个增加至10个;表现出更强的空间集聚性和空间自相关,并且形成以湛江各区、茂南区和江城区为中心,沿海连续形成可达性高值带状片区。对湛茂阳城市带县域尺度综合交通可达性进行研究能够为区域协调均衡发展提供更好的理论和实践指导。     

新加坡城市交通无障碍设计及对我国的启示

本文在系统分析我国人口老龄化问题的基础上,引申出无障碍相关概念,通过总结新加坡城市道路和交通枢纽无障碍“以人为本”的设计特色,针对我国高比例的老年人口规模和残障人士渴望进一步融入社会的强烈愿望,从观念革新、系统规划、风格设计等方面探讨有益于我国城市交通无障碍建设的启示与借鉴。