A theoretical travel-time model for flexible-route buses

A theoretical model for estimating the expectation and variance of buses' running times under a flexibly-routed mode of service is proposed. The model is based on a probabilistic concept that adequately accommodates the usual randomness in the number and location of passengers served during successive vehicle trips. A few simplifications are embodied in the model but it can serve as a basis for a more refined model such as a computer simulation model that can be used in designing real bus systems.The physical setting assumed in the model is a rectangular grid road network where all houses face the side streets as in some suburban regions. Because it oversimplifies real-life situations, this assumption would need to be relaxed to make the model applicable to more general cases.Both the partially flexible-route service where some passengers are captive to fixed-route service and others are served at their doorsteps, and the fully flexible-route service where all passengers are served at their doorsteps, are studied. In each case, a very simple routing convention that can be conveniently executed by the bus drivers is assumed. The proposed travel time model confirms the intuitively correct phenomenon that when the concentration of passenger trip-ends is very high, the vehicle-route degenerates into a fixed-route in which the buses visit all possible loading points within the service area.     

A queueing system for airport buses

The use of remote terminals to relieve airport congestion leads rather naturally to queueing systems with batch arrivals occuring at fixed time intervals to a multiple server service facility. In this paper arrival point steady-state solutions to the D^[X]/M/c queueing system are presented. Solution of the steady-state equation WP = W and Neuts' method of solving the GI^[X]/M/c system are used to obtain steady-state system size densities. Results obtained using the two methods are compared with each other as well as with simulation results.     

A basic mathematical model for evacuation problems in urban areas

Real life situations like floods, hurricanes or chemical accidents may cause the evacuation of a certain area to rescue the affected population. To enable a fast and a safe evacuation a basic mixed-integer evacuation model has been developed that provides a reorganization of the traffic routing of a certain area for the case of an evacuation. This basic problem of evacuation minimizes the evacuation-time while prohibiting conflicts within intersections. Our evacuation model is a dynamic network flow problem with additional variables for the number and direction of used lanes and with additional complicating constraints.Because of the size of the time-expanded network, the computational effort required by standard software is already very high for tiny instances. To deal with realistic instances we propose a heuristic approach.     

Development and validation of energy demand uncertainty model for electric city buses

The prediction of electric city bus energy demand is crucial in order to estimate operating costs and to size components such as the battery and charging systems. Unfortunately, there are unpredictable dynamic factors that can cause variation in the energy demand, particularly concerning driver choices and traffic levels. The impact of these factors on energy demand has been difficult to study since fast computing sufficiently accurate dynamic simulation models have been missing, properly quantified in terms of relevant inputs which contribute to energy demand. The objective is to develop and validate a novel electric city bus model for computing the energy demand, to study the nature and impact of various input factors. The developed equation-based model predicted real-world electric city bus energy consumption within 0.1% error. The most crucial unmeasurable input factors were the driven bus route, the number of stops, the elevation profile, the traffic level and the driving style. This understanding can be used to specify routes and stops for a given electric bus battery capacity. Worst-case scenarios are also necessary for electric bus sizing analysis. The best- and worst-case levels of the crucial factors were identified and with them synthetic best- and worst-case speed profiles were generated to demonstrate their effect to the energy demand. While the measured nominal consumption was 0.70 kWh/km, the computed range of variation was between 0.19 kWh/km and 1.34 kWh/km. For design sizing purposes, an electric city bus can have a broad range of possible energy consumption rates due to mission condition variations.     

A European vision for more environmentally friendly buses

This paper deals with EBSF – European Bus System of the Future, 3iBS – the Intelligent, Innovative Integrated Bus Systems and ZeEUS – Zero Emission bUs Systems, three research projects funded by the European Commission, with the aim to develop a new generation of buses. The common task is to develop innovative solutions to increase the attractiveness of this mode and to operate more environmentally-friendly vehicles.Key working areas are more comfortable layouts, advanced ITS-based solutions to improve operations, new engines designed to save fuel and the enhancement of the electric option. Concern for the environment lies behind the majority of these innovations. The innovations are tested in real urban environments and performance assessed through Key Performance Indicators. Within EBSF it was also possible to perform a Transferability Exercise (TE) to assess the theoretical exportability of the innovations to more urban contexts.The research objective of this paper is to critically revise the projects’ results and present them for further applications beyond the European projects field. Results thus far stressed contrasting aspects within a common vision for the development of a new generation of buses. Stakeholders are well aware of the need to comply with the European standards in the field of sustainable mobility. This is shown by the fact that the majority of them are becoming more environmentally aware about the need to renew their fleets. However, because of economical reasons they fail to consider any environmental concerns in the TE, even when these should be crucial in the transfer decisions.     

Procedures for planning multi-leg journeys with fixed-route and demand-responsive passenger transport services

This paper describes journey-planning procedures designed for use in a traveller information system covering fixed-schedule and demand-responsive public transport modes. The task is to construct a sequence of journey-legs to meet a traveller’s requirements with the least possible generalised cost, subject to time-window and other constraints. A journey may be carried out in a single leg by walking or by taking a taxi all the way from the origin to the destination, or by a sequence of one or more legs carried by public transport services sandwiched between walked segments connecting an initial pickup and final setdown stop. The public transport services may include fixed-route modes such as bus and train, and demand-responsive services running between fixed points. The main planning procedures are a high-level request-broker and a branch and bound procedure to handle multi-legged journeys; the request-broker also invokes a fleet-scheduling module to obtain bookings on demand-responsive services. The paper describes planning conditions, the planning procedures, and reduction techniques that are used to obtain acceptable computational performance. Tests with simulated demand suggest that the procedures are well suited for use in a real-time traveller information system.     

Autonomous and conventional bus fleet optimization for fixed-route operations considering demand uncertainty

Transportation - The emerging technology of autonomous vehicles has been widely recognized as a promising urban mobility solution in the future. This paper considers the integration of autonomous...     

The marginal social cost of headway for a scheduled service

This brief paper derives the marginal social cost of headway for a scheduled service, i.e. the cost for users of marginal increases to the time interval between departures. In brief we may call it the value of headway in analogy with the value of travel time and the value of reliability. Users have waiting time costs as well as schedule delay costs measured relative to their desired time of arrival at the destination. They may either arrive at the station to choose just the next departure or they may plan for a specific departure in which case they incur also a planning cost. Then planning for a specific departure is costly but becomes more attractive at longer headways. Simple expressions for the user cost result. In particular, the marginal cost of headway is large at short headways and smaller at long headways. The difference in marginal costs is the value of time multiplied by half the headway.     

Neural network modeling of vehicle discharge headway at signalized intersection: model descriptions and results

Vehicle discharge headway at signalized intersections is of great importance in junction analysis. However, it is very difficult to simulate the discharge headway of individual queued vehicle because of the great variations in the driver behaviors, vehicle characteristics and traffic environment. The current study proposes a neural network (NN) approach to simulate the queued vehicle discharge headway. A computer-based three-layered (NN) model was developed for the estimation of discharge headway. The widely used backpropagation algorithm has been utilized in training the NN model. The NN model was trained, validated with field data and then compared with other headway models. It was found that the NN model performed better. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted to further validate the applicability of the model. Results showed that the NN model could produce reasonable discharge headway estimates for individual vehicles.     

Environmental benefits of natural gas for buses

This paper presents a life cycle assessment comparing diesel buses with buses fueled by natural gas. The data for the emission of pollutants are based on the MEET Project of the European Commission (EC), supplemented by data measured for diesel and gas buses in Paris. The benefits of the gas fueled bus are then quantified using the damage cost estimates of the ExternE Project of the EC. A diesel bus with emissions equal to Standard EURO2 of the EC is compared with the same bus equipped with a natural gas engine, for use in Paris and in Toulouse. The damage cost of a diesel bus is significant, in the range of 0.4–1.3

/km. Natural gas allows an appreciable reduction of the emissions, lowering the damage cost by a factor of about 2.5 (Toulouse) to 5.5 (Paris). An approximate rule is provided for transferring the results to other cities. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the effect of the evolution of the emissions standard towards EURO3, 4 and 5, as well as the effect of uncertainties. Finally a comparison is presented between a EURO2 diesel bus with particle filter, and a gas fueled bus with the MPI engine of IVECO, a more advanced and cleaner technology. With this engine the damage costs of the gas fueled bus are about 3–5 times lower than those of the diesel with particle filter, even though the latter has already very low emissions.     

Practical safety considerations for short headway automated transit systems

Continued interest in Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) systems as one solution to urban traffic congestion emphasizes the need for careful consideration of the safety of short headway automated transit systems. Current approaches to the determination of safe headways are reviewed. The reduction in headway which could be achieved by improved braking and signaling hardware is outlined. Improved design of emergency brakes is the most important single factor in the reduction of safe headways.

Very short headway systems are reviewed from a safety standpoint. Such systems might be safely operated if operation at intermediate headways (separations on the order of the stopping distance) can be avoided.     

Effects of contracting on cost efficiency in US fixed-route bus transit service

Contracted service comprises a significant proportion of total operating expenses in the provision of fixed-route bus transit service in the US. Despite its importance, the literature on the economic effects of transit service contracting has been limited to only a few studies since the mid-1990s, and is inconclusive due to problems with the nature and methodology of the past studies.This paper examines how the cost efficiency of providing fixed-route bus transit service varies by the degree of contracting. I make several improvements to previous studies and conduct a regression analysis that: (1) addresses the endogeneity problem between the contracting decision and cost efficiency, (2) differentiates between agencies that contract out only a portion of service from those that contract out all service, (3) takes into account the moderating effects of several factors on the effect of contracting on cost efficiency, and (4) uses a relatively larger set of cross-sectional time-series data constructed from the National Transit Database from 1992 to 2000.The analysis results show that the combined effects of contracting lower operating costs by $4.09 and $2.89 per vehicle hour for partial and full-contracting agencies, respectively, in the average case. These average cost savings translate into 7.8% and 5.5%, using the average operating cost per vehicle hour of $53.06. However, this improvement is not universal, because the effects of contracting on cost efficiency vary by factors such as peak-to-base ratio, agency size, the wage gap between bus operators in the public and private sectors, and agency type.     

Optimal control of headway variation on transit routes

Headway control strategies have been proposed as methods for correcting transit service irregularities and thereby reducing passenger wait times at stops. This paper addresses a particular strategy which can be implemented on high frequency routes (headways under 10–12 minutes), in which buses are held at a control stop to a threshold headway. An algorithm is developed which yields the optimal control stop location and optimal threshold headway with respect to a system wait function. The specification of the wait function is based on the development of several empirical models, including a headway variation model and an average delay time model at control stops. A conclusion is reached that the headway variation does not increase linearly along a route, a common assumption made in many previous studies. Furthermore, the location of the optimal control stop and threshold value are sensitive to the passenger boarding profile, as expected. The algorithm itself appears to have practical application to conventional transit operations.     

A web-based support system for estimating and visualizing the emissions of diesel transit buses

Diesel transit buses are heavy-duty vehicles that are major sources of greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants. Although various models have been used to estimate their emissions, it has been difficult to effectively apply these estimation models due to the need for user-friendly interfaces, the large amounts of underlying data, and the potential data inaccuracy. In this paper, we present a web-based support system developed for transit operators who need to estimate and visualize the emissions of diesel transit buses where a micro-scale Vehicle Specific Power approach is used to estimate emissions based on global positioning system data. Case studies show that the web-based support system provides a user-friendly environment that makes it easier to apply emission estimation methodologies and visualize emissions.     

Demand for buses in Japanese medium sized cities

The number of bus passenger has been decreasing in Japan since 1969. The increase in car ownership and development in urban rapid rail network has deprived bus service of passengers. The bus industry has suffered from depression for the last twenty years. However, many bus routes are still operated commercially. The amount of external subsidies is not large. The industry is under strict regulation. The common way for bus operators has been to increase fares rapidly in order to keep their break even condition. The first half of the paper describes present circumstances of the bus industry in more details. Then the second half of the paper treats the estimation of the effect of each factor on bus demand by using pooled data in Japanese medium sized cities. The results suggest that the increase in car ownership has had a crucial effect on local public transport demand and is likely to continue to do so.     

Locating charging infrastructure for electric buses in Stockholm

Charging infrastructure requirements are being largely debated in the context of urban energy planning for transport electrification. As electric vehicles are gaining momentum, the issue of locating and securing the availability, efficiency and effectiveness of charging infrastructure becomes a complex question that needs to be addressed. This paper presents the structure and application of a model developed for optimizing the distribution of charging infrastructure for electric buses in the urban context, and tests the model for the bus network of Stockholm. The major public bus transport hubs connecting to the train and subway system show the highest concentration of locations chosen by the model for charging station installation. The costs estimated are within an expected range when comparing to the annual bus public transport costs in Stockholm. The model could be adapted for various urban contexts to promptly assist in the transition to fossil-free bus transport. The total costs for the operation of a partially electrified bus system in both optimization cases considered (cost and energy) differ only marginally from the costs for a 100% biodiesel system. This indicates that lower fuel costs for electric buses can balance the high investment costs incurred in building charging infrastructure, while achieving a reduction of up to 51% in emissions and up to 34% in energy use in the bus fleet.     

Effect of time-value distributions on transit headway optimizations

The issue considered is whether the biases that result from assuming a single value of waiting time in variable-demand headway optimizations (and the demand models on which they are based) can have a significant impact on the results of the optimization. Marginal benefit functions based on binary probit demand models, and incorporating the alternative assumptions of either a single value of time, a discrete distribution of time values, or a continuous distribution of time values, are derived and compared for several cases. These comparisons indicate the possibility of significant errors in several cases, the most realistic of which is that of a highly heterogeneous market composed of a large segment of “choice riders” and a smaller segment of “transit captives”.     

Relationship between service quality and demand for inter-urban buses

This article proposes a model for analysing the modal choice of travellers making inter-urban journeys. Discrete choice models with systematic and random tastes variation were applied to find the most relevant variables for encouraging the use of public transport by bus rather than private car. This research follows on from the results of previous user satisfaction studies on inter-urban bus services in the province of Burgos (Spain). Willingness to pay is also estimated for time savings or other improvements in the bus service.The results indicate that, in general, improvements in the journey time or the number of daily journeys are valued less by inter-urban bus users than they are by car or railway users. The type of bus and its characteristics are evaluated as a function of the distance travelled and result in very small values for this variable. Contrary to what is often reported in satisfaction surveys, the journey cost is found to be relevant when choosing which mode of transport to use, but the most important variable is journey time. Little value is placed on the features of the bus, except on long distance journeys.Finally, a methodology differentiating four hierarchical groups is presented for comparing the results of the relevant variables in demand and satisfaction models. Some only improve perception rather than encourage new users, while others increase take-up but do not improve the image of the service.