The Ws of MaaS: Understanding mobility as a service fromaliterature review

Transport integration has evolved into Mobility as a service (MaaS), and as a recent topic, MaaS-literature is rapidly growing. This study analyses 57 MaaS-focused documents (the majority being peer-reviewed articles) from Scopus in January 2019. The aim is to comprehensively answer MaaS basic W-questions: 1) What is MaaS? 2), When and where did the term appear? 3), Who are the main actors in MaaS? 4), How can MaaS be implemented? and 5) Why should it be implemented? Future research lines are also offered. Our findings show that MaaS is an ongoing topical subject; there are still many contributions under development to reach a definition. In order to succeed in implementing it, key stakeholders, such as transport authorities and transport operators, must cooperate to achieve the predicted sustainable effects envisioned. New data on user travel behaviour and their preferences should be obtained through MaaS pilots, helping transport planners and policy makers when evaluating MaaS impacts and its feasibility to be the next transport paradigm.     

Public private partnerships in transportation: Some insights from the European experience

Most EU member states and the European Commission regard the PPP as an important tool to attract additional financial resources for high priority investments such as transport. The objective of this paper is to delineate the EU panorama of PPP markets and investigate the impacts of EU institutions in the development and success of this type of financial arrangement for the transport sector in Europe. We examine how the scope of the PPP in Europe is based on the flexibility and adaptability of the contract to the features of the project and to the economic and institutional environment. These issues are illustrated through a number of examples in the transport sector. We conclude by observing that the market for PPPs, although still fragmented nationally, is developing a European dimension and attracting resources from a variety of players.     

La voie étroite du « facteur 4 » dans le secteur des transports: quelles politiques publiques, pour quelles mobilités ?

Today, numerous works conclude that transport seems to be completely coupled to economic and export/import growth. Therefore, as a direct consequence of economic development, transport sits today as one of the major final energy consumers and as one of the most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, this situation of continuous increase in transport clearly poses an environmental problem. In this paper, we propose to asses a certain number of possible solutions through scenario building in a backcasting manner using the TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term) model. In particular, we evaluate three different scenarios that address how technology and different public policies can contribute towards a sharp reduction in CO₂ emissions. Each scenario allows a quick comprehension of the types of results that can be obtained through different policy mixes. In sum, realistic technological hypothesis show that a 50% reduction in emissions, from the 2000 level, is a clear possibility, and that the remaining 25% reduction in emissions is possible through different types of policy mixes.     

公路大件运输计算机决策系统的研制与开发

公路大件运输是公路运输的一种重要的形式。大件运输的货物往往是国家重点建设项目的关键设备,在运输过程中通常要求具有很高的可靠性和安全性。本文系统分析了公路大件运输安全性的影响因素,建立了运输车辆的可靠性、稳定性和通过能力模型,并在此基础上用VB语言开发出了公路大件运输计算机决策系统。试用结果表明,该软件能迅捷、有效地解决公路大件运输的可靠性、稳定性和通过能力的决策问题。     

重大疫情对乘客公共交通依赖性的影响

深入探究重大疫情对乘客公共交通使用行为和依赖性的影响,有助于针对性地改善公共交通服务质量和供需平衡情况.结合前景理论与计划行为理论,开展重大疫情时期SP/RP出行调查,从出行行为表现维度选取3个指标并利用k-means算法标定公共交通出行群体,从7个层面筛选公共交通依赖性内外部影响指标,采用结构方程模型构建重大疫情对乘...     

居民全日出行方式选择动态模型研究

为改进现有交通方式选择模型,提高交通方式预测模型精度,基于出行链建立了居民全日出行方式选择动态模型。从居民出行方式选择机理分析入手,确立出行方式选择动态影响因素,在多项Logit模型（MNL模型）的基础上建立了方式选择动态模型。模型中增加了2类动态影响因素,即先前出行方式选择结果对后面出行方式选择的影响和主链的出行方式选择结果对子链出行方式选择的影响。最后以安徽省淮北市为例对模型进行了实例分析。结果表明：所建立的动态模型的优度比和预测准确率较基于单次出行效用的MNL模型有较大提高,变量在模型中的意义符合中国国情,模型可服务于城市交通规划和交通政策制定。     

Bi-objective routing problem with asymmetrical travel time distributions

Recent studies have confirmed that travelers consider travel time reliability in addition to average travel time when making route choice decisions. In this study, we develop a bi-objective routing model that seeks to simultaneously optimize the average travel time and travel time reliability. The semi-standard deviation (SSD) is chosen as the reliability measure because it reflects travelers' concerns over longer travel time better than the commonly used standard deviation. The Pareto-optimal solutions to the bi-objective model are found by using an improved strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm. Tests on a real-world urban network with field measured travel time data have demonstrated good performance of the algorithm in the aspects, such as computational efficiency, quick convergence, and closeness to the global Pareto-optimal. Overall, the bi-objective routing model generates reasonable path recommendations. The SSD-based model is sensitive to the asymmetry of travel time distribution and tends to avoid paths with excessively long delays. This would be particularly helpful to those users placing high values on travel time reliability.     

Analyzing travelers' attitude towards ride-hailing services in developing countries: Case of Lahore,Pakistan

Ride-hailing services are gaining momentum to meet the urban travel demand in the absence of proper public transport in developing countries. To the best of our knowledge, research on passenger's behavior and attitude towards the service quality of ride-hailing services and certainly studies focusing on developing countries are quite rare. Ride-hailing services were launched to meet the travel demand of residents throughout the city of Lahore, Pakistan in 2015. A revealed preferences study of 865 respondents consisting their demographic, travel information and perceptions related to selected attributes of service quality was carried out to examine their attitude and behavior towards the use of ride-hailing services in Lahore, Pakistan.Most of the users of these services are young, well-educated and have relatively high income. The travelers who were using Rickshaw services before are found to be the frequent users of these services and ride-hailing services have started replacing respondents' previous modes of travel. Exploratory factor analysis were employed on collected data to identify the factors effecting the traveler's perceptions regarding the use of ride-hailing services and structural model of users' satisfaction were constructed based on these factors later.The results exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that significant determinants of passenger's satisfaction with ride-hailing services are coverage and accessibility attributes (CAA), instrumental attributes (IA), service attraction attributes (SAA) and safety attributes (SA). The number of trips, trip purpose, income, education, time since the use of these services, profession and household size are also significant parameters in the determination of traveler's behavior and attitude towards the use of ride-hailing services in Lahore city. The commuter's overall satisfaction with service quality of app-based services have positive association with travelers intentions to continue use of app-based services and their believe that these services have filled the gap of public transport in the city and replacing previous modes of travel. The further improvements in attributes will enhance the traveler's satisfaction with these services. Insight into the attitude and perceptions of travelers would be useful for the transport planners, ride-hailing companies and policy makers for making appropriate improvements in the services and giving them space in existing transport system.     

基于模糊解释结构模型的客运交通结构优化方法

客运交通结构优化是实现城市交通系统可持续发展的重要方法之一,在提升城市客运交通系统效率方面发挥重要的作用.根据客运交通结构影响因素的性质,建立模糊解释结构模型,将客运交通结构的影响因素划分为4个层次:直接影响感知因素层、间接影响认知因素层、过渡连接因素层和根本性因素层,并使用有向弧对于层级之间与层级内部的影响因素关系进行了连接.根据模型的分析结果可知,城市规模为根本性因素,资金投入为过渡连接因素,道路布局、基础设施、出行者特性为间接影响认知因素.研究结果确定了优化客运交通结构的关键性因素,以哈尔滨市为实例,从交通政策、土地利用、出行方式效用等方面提出了优化城市客运交通结构的建议.      

出行者环保意识对低碳交通政策支持度的影响

为减少汽车尾气污染,政府部门应制定交通政策推动出行者采用低碳出行方式.有效的交通政策需要深入了解影响出行者低碳出行的心理因素.通过实证分析,研究出行者环保态度、环保行为、公交偏好等潜在变量对低碳交通政策支持度的影响.基于结构方程模型(SEM模型)的基本原理,建立模型假设,并通过Mplus进行数据分析.研究发现,环保态度...     

多模式公共交通网络行程时间可靠性评价

随着城市经济的快速发展,以快速轨道交通与常规公共汽车交通为主体的多模式公交网络逐步成型,城市居民在多方式换乘条件下的行程时间可靠度越来越成为评价多模式公交网络服务水平的重要指标。以典型城市的多模式公交网络为研究对象,结合图论及状态增广方法描述,设计换乘次数约束下的任意OD对多路径搜索算法,建立行程时间可靠性评价模型,从而为评价和改善多模式公交网络服务水平提供有效的决策支持。     

Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.     

考虑心理潜变量的城市电动自行车用户出行决策行为

为探究电动自行车用户对不同城市电动自行车规范管理政策的行为响应机理,采用问卷调查方法收集用户的社会人口特征、出行特征、心理特征以及在不同政策下的决策,基于心理接受度等潜变量构建了多指标多因素模型,得出了潜变量的拟合值,将潜变量作为解释变量引入到行为决策模型中,构成了混合选择模型来分析社会人口变量、出行特征变量和心理潜变...     

先进的旅行者信息系统对出行者选择行为的影响研究

目前研究先进的旅行者信息系统对出行者选择行为的影响主要集中在对路径选择行为的影响上,而忽略了对出行者出行终点和交通方式选择的影响。假定路网中的出行者一部分装有信息装置,另一部分没有装信息装置,利用离散选择理论中的层次选择结构模型和交通规划理论中的随机均衡方法,研究了先进的旅行者信息系统对出行者终点选择,方式分担和路径选择行为的综合影响,建立了一个与网络均衡条件等价的数学规划模型,设计了模型的求解算法,并用一算例分析了市场渗透率和信息质量对出行者选择行为的影响。     

基于大数据的出行方式分配预测研究

随着城镇化及城市交通机动化的进程加快，在城镇化和机动化的共同作用下，交通拥挤问题已经成为制约城市发展和影响居民生活质量的主要问题之一。居民出行行为研究在交通管理和控制中有着非常重要的作用。结合多元大数据，构建出行方式选择的概率模型，有助于不同小区的出行方式分担率的预测，对缓解城市交通压力、提升运营管理能力有直接作用。本文基于小区出行分配、公共交通和非公共交通以及公交和轨道出行三个层级，分别得出出行分配预测模型，并形成计算机程序。利于实际应用，对识别城市出行特征、缓解城市交通压力提供有效措施。     

基于随机系数Logit模型的城市群城际出行方式选择行为研究

以粤港澳大湾区城市群的广深城际运输通道为例，分析城际运输通道中影响旅客出行方式选择行为的因素及其影响。传统的多项式Logi（tMNL）模型具有无关方案独立性，无法对不同出行者的选择偏好差异进行定量分析，故应用随机系数Logit模型分析城际交通出行选择行为。选取城际出行旅客的个人社会经济属性、心理潜变量（对交通方式舒适性、可靠性和便捷性的心理感受）、城际出行方式特征变量设计问卷。采用线上与线下相结合的方式开展问卷调查，共收集534份问卷，基于此建立并求解随机系数Logit模型。随机系数Logit模型估计结果的伪R2为0.178，表明模型具有良好的拟合度。研究结果表明:城际出行旅客的收入、职业、私家车保有情况、家庭儿童数量以及对出行方式便捷性的感知对其选择行为有显著影响；而出行方式的舒适性、可靠性对城际出行方式的选择行为影响不显著；改善交通方式的便捷性对提升城际出行方式的吸引力起关键作用。因此，在城际交通规划设计、运营管理中应着重考虑便捷性对城际交通方式选择带来的影响。      

基于DAG-SVM的居民出行方式选择模型

提高居民出行方式的预测精度对于评价交通规划方案、交通策略的效果具有重要意义.应用心理学、行为科学的方法分析了出行决策的思维过程,将出行决策过程结构化,建立出行情景库,并采用主成份法分析了影响方式选择的主要因素,作为支持向量机模型的输入.利用统计学习理论分析了支持向量机与神经网络在建模原理上的区别,建立了基于有向无环图-支持向量机(DAG-SVM)的方式选择模型,阐述了模型的具体步骤.通过实验对不同核函数的预测效果进行了评价,并采用网格法和遗传算法进行参数寻优.结果表明,核函数选择径向基函数效果较理想,参数寻优方法上遗传算法比网格法效果更好.通过优化后,DAG-SVM模型的整体预测精度达到了82.3%,比神经网络提高了近9%.但对出租车出行的预测准确率略低于其他方式,这主要由于出租车常被作为特殊情况下的备选方式,其出行规律性相对较差.      

A nationwide study of factors associated with household car ownership in China

Car ownership is growing very rapidly in China; whilst this is a reflection of sustained economic growth, it presents a major challenge to Chinese transport policymakers. The consequences of China's motorization also extend beyond the national borders, however, via mechanisms such as increased demand for new automobiles produced in North America and Europe and the global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Chinese cities are also experimenting with innovative transport policies to manage increasing car ownership, which in a number of cases go beyond the menu of policy options that have traditionally been considered in the West. Despite policy interest for these reasons, China's motorization process is poorly understood, in part due to a scarcity of relevant data.This paper contributes to the body of literature regarding this phenomenon by drawing on a unique data resource: the 2011 wave of the China Household Finance Survey (n = 8438 households). This is a disaggregate national-scale survey dataset developed to monitor economic conditions in China, though to the authors' knowledge the CHFS has not previously been employed to study patterns of car ownership.We report a set of three analyses, to identify factors associated with: 1) whether a household owns at least one car, 2) multiple car ownership, and 3) whether a household owns a new car. Amongst other empirical results, we find that living in a rural area is negatively associated with car ownership, net of confounding effects, and that within towns/cities poor accessibility (i.e. long travel time) to the town/city centre is also negatively associated with car ownership. These findings regarding spatial effects are contrary to typical findings in the West, where car ownership is generally lowest in urban centres.An earlier version of this study was presented at the 2017 Transportation Research Board conference.     

基于累积前景理论的拥挤阈值计算模型

信息诱导是缓解交通拥挤的有效途径,为了描述道路拥挤程度对出行者路径选择决策的影响机理,基于累积前景理论分析了出行者的出行决策过程,分析了出行者拥挤认知模式以及不同出行方式的拥挤信息需求。解析了拥挤阈值的概念,将行程时间作为累积前景理论决策指标建立了拥挤阈值的计算模型,以1个简单路网进行算例分析,模拟驾驶员的拥挤认知及出行活动决策。算例结果揭示了拥挤阈值对路径选择决策行为的影响,同时验证了拥挤阈值是出行者在决策过程中的决策变化分界点。出行时间在拥挤阈值内出行者不改变出行路径;出行时间超过拥挤阈值,出行者将改变出行路径。      

基于可持续发展的交通管理模式研究

对欧美等国采取的交通管理理论及方法进行了摘编,阐述了当前如何应用交通需求管理（Travel Demand Management,TDM）合理引导需求,以及从长远角度考虑如何整合土地利用与交通规划（Integrating land use and transport）,从而实现交通管理的可持续发展,为相关工作提供参考。