National policy towards cars: the federal republic of Germany

Although much of the early technical development of the automobile occurred in Germany, the spread of car ownership within Germany was relatively slow up to 1933. Besides the general economic situation, this was due to the high costs of purchasing and running a car. With deliberate promotion of automobility by the national‐socialists after 1933, the pace of motorization proceeded more rapidly until the outbreak of World War II. Immediately after the war, motorization was slow to regain momentum but by the middle fifties, after the initial phase of post‐war reconstruction, the rapid build‐up of cars began again and has continued ever since. By 1986, the West German car fleet exceeded 27 million and 80% of motorized passenger kilometres were made by car.

This rapid post‐war growth was made possible by a liberal transport policy which reacted to growing car use by adaptation and provision of the necessary infrastructure. The adverse effects of vehicular traffic on the environment and on the urban quality of life moved policy at the end of the sixties towards stronger support for urban public transport and regulations for noise and exhaust emissions of automobiles. Also, the high toll of death and injuries from road accidents made improvement of road safety another important policy objective. So far, however, measures taken have fallen short of requiring changes in driver behaviour. Although there is widespread awareness of the environmental and accident costs of automobility, there is a reluctance to legislate (or for people voluntarily) to modify driving behaviour for social objectives.

This paper presents, briefly, the main instruments that have been applied in West Germany to achieve car‐related transport policy objectives, including the latest modifications in the tax system intended to foster the use of low‐emission vehicles. Possible future directions of policy towards the car, depending inter alia on changes in government, are also explored.     

Towards a dynamic discrete-choice model of household automobile fleet size and composition

The emphasis on energy consumption in studies of traveller behaviour has led to increased interest in the development of policy sensitive models of automobile demand. In recognition of the fuller dimensions of automobile demand, a number of studies have considered choice amongst types of automobiles as well as number of automobiles. With rare exception, existing studies have concentrated on either type choice or number choice. In all instances the approach has been static. This paper develops a series of linked discrete-choice models to explain household automobile holdings (type and number) and adjustments in the holdings over time. The empirical study is part of an initial data effort leading up to the development of a full scale longitudinal panel of Sydney households. A model system based on a retrospective panel of 354 households, interviewed in 1980, is reported herein. The model is dynamic in the sense that it allows for prior decisions, brand loyalty and the costs of transacting.     

Global versus localised attitudinal responses in discrete choice

Despite the increasing popularity of including attitudinal and perceptual indicators within discrete choice models, debate endures as to whether there exists a causative relationship between attitudes and behaviour, resulting in what has been termed the attitude behaviour gap. In attempt to understand its origins, attitudes have been categorised as global or localised according to whether or not they are related to a specific time, context and action. Under this framework, global attitudes (GA) typically result in poor predictions of specific overt behaviours, whilst attitudes toward behaviour, or localised attitudes (LA), tend to be better predictors of actual outcomes. Also, attitude strength, measured as the accessibility in memory, plays a determinant role in reducing the gap between attitudes and behaviour, with “memory-based” attitudes having a better prediction of overt behaviours than short-term attitudes constructed “on the spot”. The specific focus of the current paper is to examine the temporal stability and the nature of attitudes, being it critical to transportation planning and research considering the controversial link between attitudes and behaviour. An in depth analysis of the different types of attitudes towards satisfaction for train trips reveals that GAs and LAs provide moderately different outcomes. Also, a memory effect has been found, suggesting the connection between attitudes created on the spot and those stored in memory. Further, both GAs and LAs impact significantly on individual preferences. Finally, the omission of LAs, which are rarely employed within transport literature, may potentially lead to inconsistent estimates, as their contribution in explaining the choice will be absorbed by the error term.

     

Overview and analysis of Vehicle Automation and Communication Systems from a motorway traffic management perspective

During the last decade, there has been an enormous interdisciplinary effort by the automobile industry and numerous research institutions worldwide towards the development, testing and employment of a variety of Vehicle Automation and Communication Systems (VACS) with the main aims to improve road safety and driver convenience. Some VACS, however, have a direct impact on road efficiency as well and could therefore be exploited to relieve road networks from the significant congestion problems and their negative consequences for travel times, safety, fuel consumption, the environment and the quality of life in general. In other words, some of the available VACS could also be used as novel or innovative sensors, actuators and tools towards a new era of traffic management. This paper provides an overview of proposed and available VACS and discusses their perspectives from the motorway traffic management point of view. Classifications of the different systems in this respect are also provided, while SWOT (Strengths–Weaknesses–Opportunities–Threats) analyses are used to identify specific exploitation ways. Current trends and future perspectives of VACS within a motorway traffic management context are finally summarised.     

Spatiotemporal influence of land use and household properties on automobile travel demand

Understanding the patterns of automobile travel demand can help formulate policies to alleviate congestion and pollution. This study focuses on the influence of land use and household properties on automobile travel demand. Car license plate recognition (CLPR) data, point-of-interest (POI) data, and housing information data were utilized to obtain automobile travel demand along with the land use and household properties. A geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was adopted to deal with both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of travel demand. The spatial-temporal patterns of GTWR coefficients were analyzed. Also, comparative analyses were carried out between automobile and total person travel demand, and among travel demand of taxis, heavily-used private cars, and total automobiles. The results show that: (I) The GTWR model has significantly higher accuracy compared with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, which means the GTWR model can measure both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity with high precision; (II) The influence of built environment and household properties on automobile travel demand varies with space and time. In particular, the temporal distribution of regression coefficients shows significant peak phenomenon; and (III) Comparative analyses indicate that residents’ preference for automobiles over other travel modes varies with their travel purpose and destination. The above findings indicate that the proposed method can not only model spatial-temporal heterogeneous travel demand, but also provide a way to analyze the patterns of automobile travel demand.     

Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption

Abstract

The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers, given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol, and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, we have estimated the impact on CO₂ for several potential policy instruments, using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%, resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO₂ of 1.5%.     

Road pricing for congestion and accident externalities for mixed traffic of motorcycles and automobiles

Motorcycles play an important role in sharing the trip demand with automobiles for commuting, especially in many cities in Asia. However, the accident cost of a trip by motorcycle is higher than that of an automobile. This study analyzes the road pricing for the congestion and accident externalities of mixed traffic of automobiles and motorcycles. A model for equilibrium trips with no taxation and that for optimal trips with taxation are explored. The model is then applied to the Tucheng City–Banciao City–Taipei central business district corridor in Taipei metropolitan area. The findings in this case study show that the tax for accident externality is larger than that for congestion externality.     

Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models

This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The model allows automobiles to be highly differentiated and consumers to be heterogeneous. Short-run equilibrium is defined as supply equal to demand for every vehicle type during each market period. The automobile stock then evolves slowly as new vehicles are added and old vehicles are removed during each period. An empirical application of the simulation model with 12 consumer groups and 131 vehicle types is used to forecast automobile holdings. A base case scenario is run for 1978–1984 and compared with the observed market behavior during this period. Several other simulations are then run comparing different gasoline price scenarios with the base case for 1984–1990.     

基于ADVISOR的纯电动汽车动力系统匹配及仿真

纯电动汽车作为新能源汽车行业发展的主要方向,在发展其核心技术中,动力系统的匹配对于发展纯电动汽车具有重要的意义,合理的动力系统匹配影响着汽车的动力性和续航里程等因素。根据纯电动汽车的整车参数和性能指标,计算选择动力系统的基本参数,并利用ADVISOR仿真软件进行仿真分析,为改进技术提供依据,验证了设计的有效性。     

My way or the highway? Framing transportation planners’ attitudes in negotiating professional expertise and public insight

Transportation planning continues to expand beyond traditional engineering and economic performance measures toward a broader scope of impacts across space and society. However, the attitudes of transportation planners as they balance their expert knowledge against public insights are not well-understood. We test a two-dimensional attitudinal framework using survey data from 311 U.S. and Canadian transportation planners. We reveal four attitudinal categories using principal component analysis, and hypothesis testing shows significant differences in personal and institutional attributes across these categories. We discuss what our results mean for training and regulatory measures striving to influence planner attitudes before proposing future directions for research.

     

A regression on climate policy: The European Commission’s legislation to reduce CO2 emissions from automobiles

As part of its efforts to reach the targets of the Kyoto Protocol, in April 2009 the European Commission enacted new legislation to reduce the per-kilometer CO₂ emissions of newly registered automobiles. This paper critically assesses this legislation with respect to its economic and technological underpinnings. First, we argue that the reliance on targets based on per-kilometer emissions not only conceals the true cost of compliance and thereby stifles informed public discourse, but is also less cost-effective than alternative measures such as emissions trading. Second, the emission targets stipulated in this legislation are based on linear-regression methods that we demonstrate to be poorly justified and misleading. Using instead stochastic-frontier analysis, which is argued to more accurately reflect the industry’s technological status quo, alternative targets are consequently proposed.     

Cooperation in transit delivery in West German metropolitan areas

West Germany is densely populated, averaging 245 inhabitants/km², but varying widely between urban agglomerations and rural areas. Transport volume has increased by 40% since 1970, with virtually all growth due to private automobiles. Since 1981 public transit has been suffering from decreasing demand.A 1964 Expert's Report to the German federal government was the stimulus for initiating an effective funding mechanism for new public transit construction. In 1965 Germany's first federated transit authority was founded for the region of Hamburg.Principal among the goals of any cooperative agreement among transit companies are improvements for the passengers and improvement of revenues for the companies. To attain these ends, two distinct forms of transit aggrements have been developed in Germany: transit cooperative (Verkehrsgemeinschaft) and transit federation (Verkehrsverbund). The former is more suitable for smaller to medium-sized towns, while the latter is more suitable for larger cities. The two types are described in this article.German transit federations during the 1970s succeeded in significantly increasing ridership, while during the 1980s patronage has either remained steady or has declined. Yet transit federations showed much better perfomance than did public transit in general. In terms of costs and revenues, no public transit organization in Germany is able to break even; deficits vary between 42% and 55%. The author concludes, however, that hidden subsidies for automobile traffic are far higher, because of environmental damage and the high social cost of traffic accidents.     

Regulating transport’s environmental impacts in a deregulating world

In recent years, a growing awareness of the environmental impacts of transport has played a major part in the shift towards policies to manage the demand for travel. As a result, a substantial increase in the role of public transport has been identified as necessary in any strategy towards more environmentally sustainable transport patterns. At the same time there has been a quite separate process of deregulation and the withdrawal of the state from the transport market. These two trends appear to represent potentially contradictory processes. This article draws upon two major studies that explore the relationship between increasing needs for environmental regulation and the privatisation of bus and rail services. It is shown that, as currently organised in Britain, the development of bus and rail services are inadequately linked to strategic environmental policymaking and, rather than being part of the solution to transport’s environmental impacts, there is a real danger that these ‘green’ methods of transport could slide into simply being part of the problem itself. It is concluded that privatisation and deregulation does not mean the end of the need for policy mechanisms, but they do mean that policy has to be implemented in a very different way.     

Energy use in passenger transport in OECD countries: Changes since 1970

This paper analyzes some of the changes that took place in the structure of energy use for passenger travel in industrialized countries. Data is presented on energy use and travel activity for the four major modes of travel — automobile, bus, rail and air — for eight OECD countries: the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and Norway. We use the Laspeyres and Divisia indices to analyze the causes of the change in energy use between 1970 and 1987. The total change in energy use for travel is explained by changes in domestic passenger transport volumes, the mix of modes of travel, and the energy intensities of each mode. We have found two important effects that have a fundamental impact on energy use for travel since 1970. First, shifts among modes of transport towards more energy-intensive ones and large increases in volumes of travel (measured in passenger-kilometers) increased energy use for travel in many OECD countries, often more rapidly than the overall growth in GDP. Second, energy intensities, measured in mJ/passenger-kilometer, of passenger transport fell only in a few countries between 1970 and 1987. Even though individual automobiles have become more energy-efficient, greater size, power, and weight, worsening traffic conditions in Japan and Europe, and fewer people in cars restrained or even offset efficiency improvements. Particularly notable are the increases in intensities in Japan and Germany. The most important exception to this trend was the United States, but the intensities of land-based travel remain higher there than in most other countries. These findings lead to a pessimistic outlook for future energy use for travel. After all, if little or no energy was saved during the decades of high fuel prices, what can be expected in the 1990s?     

The role of accessibility in basic transportation choice behavior

Accessibility measures reflect the level of service provided by transportation systems to various locations. Basic transportation choice behavior is defined to include those decisions of how many automobiles to own and how many trips to which destinations to make by automobile and by public transit. Here, these decisions are assumed to be made jointly by urban households and are conditional upon residential location decisions. It is the purpose of this paper to explore the role of accessibility as a causal factor in such basic transportation choice behavior.An economic utility theory model of choice behavior is postulated in which the benefits from making trips to specific destinations are reflected by measures of destination attraction. Through determination of utility-maximizing trip frequencies, indirect utility functions are developed which include accessibility concepts. Behavioral implications of these concepts are proposed and contrasts are drawn to accessibility measures used in conventional segregated models of trip distribution, modal choice, and automobile ownership.Sensitivity analyses of alternative empirical definitions of accessibility in the choice model are conducted using data from the Detroit Regional Transportation and Land Use Study — covering counties in southeastern Michigan. These analyses employ a multinomial logit estimation technique and focus on definitions of trip attraction. Results of these analyses indicate that more complicated attraction measures can be replaced by measures involving the proportion of either urban area population or urban area employment within a traffic analysis zone. Also, evidence is found that decision-makers in the case study area consider trips of up to 60 or even 90 minutes duration when evaluating accessibilities offered by alternative public and private transportation systems.     

The Gothenburg traffic restraint scheme

Officials at various levels around the world are getting increasingly worried about the growth in automobile ownership and all the associated environmental problems that this implies. Voices are often heard advocating the exclusion of automobiles from the central areas of cities, much easier to say than to realise, unless the area is entirely reconstructed under a comprehensive redevelopment scheme, as, for instance, in the city of Västeras, Sweden. Another possible solution is to introduce some type of traffic restraint scheme involving compulsory rearrangement of the vehicular flow through the central area.The report deals firstly with an experiment carried out during the highly intensive, pre-Christmas shopping days in December 1969, when parts of the central business area of the city of Gothenburg, Sweden (population around 450,000) were closed to all unauthorised vehicles. The experience gained with this scheme was valuable when the next stage was being planned, i.e., a permanent traffic restraint scheme which was put into effect on August 18, 1970. Most of the report deals with the objectives, planning, realisation, and experience of the traffic restraint scheme, which involved dividing the central business area into five separate zones. During the first six months, several surveys were conducted to establish the impact of the scheme on vehicular flow, parking, pedestrian flow, public transport, accidents, air pollution, noise, and retail businesses.The scheme put into operation in Gothenburg has been a great success, having accomplished most of its objectives, and will be expanded to cover a still larger area in subsequent years.This paper is an amended and updated version of one originally prepared in May 1971 for the Environment Directorate of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, whose permission to publish is gratefully acknowledged.     

On the Depreciation of Automobiles: An International Comparison

Since older automobiles are less efficient and technologically obsolete, over-aged capital stocks are associated with higher environmental burden. Given the rapid growth of over-aged car stocks in many poor countries, the knowledge of depreciation data, depreciation patterns, and their determinants in developing countries becomes increasingly important for effective environmental policies. This paper refers to used automobile prices and generates depreciation data for a sample of 54 car models from 30 countries. We found the following results:(1) Overall, geometric depreciation appears to be a good approximation to real depreciation rates. (2) Depreciation rates are significantly lower in developing countries than in industrialized countries. (3) When using corrected prices the depreciation rates increase substantially. The average depreciation in OECD countries is 31%, whereas in non-OECD countries it is about 15%. Besides prices for new cars, the economic life of automobiles is particularly dependent on real income. In the long-run, an income increase by $1000 is likely to increase the annual depreciation rate by 2.7% in OECD countries and 3.6% in non-OECD countries.     

The environmental effects of airline carbon emissions taxation in the US

This study investigates how air traffic emissions taxes may impact carbon emissions in the US. The magnitude of emissions savings in the US domestic airline industry that would result from lower demand for air travel as taxes are levied and air fares increase is estimated. At the same time, the air-automobile substitution effect is considered and it is argued that some air travelers may divert to automobiles, thus increasing automobile carbon emissions. Both the analysis of the aggregate US domestic airline industry and the study of a sample of US domestic route markets indicate that potentially sizeable increases in automobile traffic and related emissions may substantially reduce the environmental benefits of air travel carbon emissions taxes. In some instances, carbon emissions may even increase in short-haul markets. Sensitivity analyses are performed to demonstrate the robustness of these findings.     

How much can trip chaining reduce VMT? A simplified method

Trip chaining represents a way to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that does not require people to shift away from driving private automobiles. While the existing literature on trip chaining acknowledges this potential, little has been done by way of quantifying this. This research seeks to fill this gap by using a large travel survey from the San Francisco Bay area to model the VMT generated by automobile tours as a function of tour composition (i.e., the number and type of destinations on that tour). The model results indicate that many tours involving trips chains (i.e., those tours with more than one destination) generate significantly less VMT than would occur if the destinations in these tours were split into multiple tours with single destinations. Tours that combine a work and non-work destination (which are the most common types of trip chains) particularly demonstrate potential for VMT reduction. Adding a non-work destination to a work tour is usually (depending on the specific type of destination) predicted to result in a reduction of 6–11 VMT, or about 20–30 %. Adding two non-work destinations to a work tour is usually predicted to result in a reduction of 10–22 VMT, or about 25–50 %.     

A Review of the Evolution of Shared (Street) Space Concepts in Urban Environments

Abstract

This paper aims to clearly establish the origin and evolution of the shared space concept from a New Zealand perspective by reviewing the literature in the disciplines of both urban design and transportation engineering. The review process involves investigating the use and function of a public road space in the context of the changing of public expectations and how this can relate to a number of interconnected street design approaches (e.g. traffic calming and self-explaining roads (SERs)). These approaches have been used to minimise the influence of motor vehicles since the beginning of the automobile era. The shared space concept, when applied in public road environments in activity centres, has increasingly been embraced by urban planners, transportation engineers and regulatory agencies. A shared space diverges from a conventional road where all road users are encouraged to legitimately occupy the same road space with little physical separation. To achieve this in a safe and efficient manner, the design aims to reduce the dominance of the motor vehicle by promoting pedestrian and cycling activity and utilising the road space as a ‘place’ in addition to its ‘transport’ mobility and access purposes. Given the fundamental conceptual differentiation between a traffic-calmed street and a shared space, the paper argues that there are certain design elements, constituting a shared space, and without them, it would be difficult for a public street to function as a genuine shared space for all road users.