Allowing for heterogeneous decision rules in discrete choice models: an approach and four case studies

The study of respondent heterogeneity is one of the main areas of research in the field of choice modelling. The general emphasis is on variations across respondents in relative taste parameters while maintaining the assumption of homogeneous utility maximising decision rules. While recent work has allowed for differences in the utility specification across respondents in the context of looking at heterogeneous information processing strategies, the underlying assumption that all respondents employ the same choice paradigm remains. This is despite evidence in the literature that different paradigms work differently well on given datasets. In this article, we argue that such differences may in fact extend to respondents within a single dataset. We accommodate these differences in a latent class model, where individual classes make use of different underlying paradigms. We present four applications using three different datasets, showing mixtures between “standard” random utility maximisation models and lexicography based models, models with multiple reference points, elimination by aspects models and random regret minimisation models. In each of the case studies, the behavioural mixing model obtains significant gains in fit over the base structure where all respondents are hypothesised to use the same rule. The findings offer important further insights into the behavioural patterns of respondents. There is also evidence that what is retrieved as taste heterogeneity in standard models may in fact be heterogeneity in decision rules.     

Daily rhythms of suburban commuters’ movements in the Tallinn metropolitan area: Case study with mobile positioning data

The objective of this study is to analyse the diurnal rhythms of city life and its spatial differences in Tallinn, using mobile telephone positioning data. The positioning experiment was carried out in April 2006 over an 8-day period and 15-min intervals, with a random sample of 277 respondents living in new residential areas outside the city of Tallinn.The investigation of the space–time movements and daily distances of respondents showed that the majority of respondents had a similar temporal rhythm related to work, school, services and leisure in the city. Because of the different timing of those activities, the mobile positioning data made it possible to map functional differences in the city. The advantages and disadvantages of mobile positioning data in mapping urban life are discussed in the final section of the study.     

On the perceived justice of urban road pricing: An empirical study in Lyon

Various methods of restricting automobile traffic, by price (tolls) or by quantity (odd/even license plates or limited days of traffic), are tested in a survey (N ～ 400) about attitudes toward traffic restrictions in Lyon, France. Ordered probit models with random-effects panel allow us to estimate the survey respondents’ perceptions of these methods, as well as the roles of individual socio-demographic characteristics in the formation of these perceptions. Both the restriction of automobile traffic and its regulation by congestion (waiting in line) are widely considered unjust by the respondents, regardless of whether they work and whether they are drivers or non-drivers. Their attitudes towards tolls justified by the pollution caused by automobile traffic are less negative. As regards compensation, in addition to emergency vehicles and those that transport people with limited mobility, respondents believe car-pooling ought to benefit of a toll exemption. The support for a reduced rate for low-income users shows a concern for justice to which it will be necessary to respond. The respondents’ socio-professional status, level of education, car use or non-use, and residence inside or outside of the toll zone clearly play a role in their perceptions of these methods of regulation and compensation.     

Combining web and face-to-face in travel surveys: comparability challenges?

Response rates for household travel surveys are tending to fall, and it seems unlikely that this trend will be reversed in the future. In recent years, travel data collection methods have evolved in order to obtain reliable data that are sufficiently detailed to feed increasingly complex models, and in order to integrate new technologies into survey protocols (Internet, GPS??). Combining different media is an obvious low-cost way of improving data quality as it increases the overall response rate. But the question of the comparability of data over time and between different survey modes remains unresolved. This paper makes a comparative analysis between the travel behaviours of web-based survey respondents and respondents to a face-to-face interview. The data were obtained from the 2006 Lyon conurbation household travel survey. Our analysis shows that the Internet respondents reported fewer trips per day than the face-to-face respondents (3.00 vs. 4.04 daily trips), and that the differences between the two groups varied according to the travel mode and trip purpose. While part of this difference can be explained by socioeconomic disparities (the Internet respondents had a specific profile) we cannot exclude the possibility of under-reporting due to the web medium.     

Electric vehicles and residential parking in an urban environment: Results from a stated preference experiment

This paper presents the results of a preference survey of 1545 respondents’ willingness to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) in Philadelphia. We pay particular attention to respondents’ willingness to pay for convenient charging systems and parking spaces. If the value of dedicated parking substantially outweighs the value of convenient charging systems, residential-based on-street charging systems are unlikely to ever be politically palatable. As expected, respondents are generally willing to pay for longer range, shorter charging times, lower operating costs, and shorter parking search times. For a typical respondent, a $100 per month parking charge decreases the odds of purchasing an EV by around 65%. Across mixed logit and latent class models, we find substantial variation in the willingness to pay for EV range, charge time, and ease of parking. Of note, we find two primary classes of respondents with substantially different EV preferences. The first class tends to live in multifamily housing units in central parts of the city and puts a high value on parking search time and the availability of on-street charging stations. The second class, whose members are likelier to be married, wealthy, conservative, and residing in single-family homes in more distant neighborhoods, are willing to pay more for EV range and charge time, but less for parking than the first group. They are also much likelier to consider purchasing EVs at all. We recommend that future research into EV adoption incorporate neighborhood-level features, like parking availability and average trip distances, which vary by neighborhood and almost certainly influence EV adoption.     

Prevalence of alternative processing rules in the formation of daily travel satisfaction in the context multi-trip,multi-stage,multi-attribute travel experiences

Transportation - Requesting respondents to provide satisfaction ratings for multi-stage trips or daily travel experiences implies they have to value each stage, respectively trip, based on memory...     

The impact of extreme weather conditions on long distance travel behaviour

This paper examines traveller attitudes and responses towards disruption from weather and natural events. An internet-based travel behaviour survey was conducted with more than 2000 respondents in London and Glasgow. Of these respondents, 740 reported information on over 1000 long distance trips affected by extreme weather and natural events over the previous three years. Results show respondents are generally cautious towards travelling during extreme weather events. For a slight majority in the case of air and public transport, and a greater one in the case of car, travellers did not considerably alter their travel plan following the disruption. This was explained not only by less disruptive weather conditions (with heavy snow and volcanic ash being the most disruptive) and impact, but also by the relative importance of their trips. Differences between transport modes were not substantial. Business trips sometimes appeared to give travellers more flexibility, some other times not. Origin and destination did have an impact on reaction, as well as the presence of children whilst travelling. Mixed results were obtained about socio-economic and attitudinal variables. Age in particular did not appear to have a significant effect. Whilst most respondents did acknowledge no external influence in their decision, results showed an important contribution of transport organisation staff, as well as home and mobile internet technology. A limited but still considerable number of respondents indicated their closest friends/relatives as the main influence of their decisions. The results will help planners deploy strategies to mitigate the negative effects of weather related disruptions.     

Between-mode-differences in the value of travel time: Self-selection or strategic behaviour?

Using stated preference survey data, we measure the value of travel time for several transport modes. We find, like many before us, that the value of travel time varies across modes in the opposite direction of what would be the consequence of differences in comfort. We examine three candidate causes for the observed differences: Comfort effects, self-selection and strategic behaviour of respondents. Using experiments with both the current and an alternative mode we find that the differences in the value of travel time are consistent with self-selection and comfort effects. Moreover, respondents having bus as the current or the alternative mode seem not to value comfort differently across modes. Strategic behaviour seems to play no role.     

Incorporating planned activities and events in a dynamic multi-day activity agenda generator

Daily agenda formation is influenced by formal commitments, satisfaction of needs surpassing some threshold and the desire to conduct particular activities in anticipation of socially and religiously driven events such as birthdays, Christmas, etc. As part of a research program to develop a dynamic activity-based model of transport demand, this paper proposes a model to represent dynamic agenda formation, including these different underlying processes. Bayesian estimation of the model is based on data collected through a Web-based survey for a sample of approximately 300 respondents. The survey uses an extension of a 1-day activity diary where respondents are asked to recall activities in retrospect and to identify planned activities in prospect. Estimation results suggest that planned activities influence agenda formation in general, but that their significance and size depends on activity type, socio-demographics and dwelling characteristics.     

Development of behavioral context addressable loggers in the shell for travel-activity analysis

This study attempts to develop a small, portable travel-activity measuring instrument that requires no entry from respondents. Conventional surveys have collected identification information such as facility type, transport mode, and activity content through the operation of instruments, questionnaires, etc. However, these complicated surveys burden the respondents and rely on their memory, often leading to recording omissions or incorrect records. We propose a method for estimating behavioral contexts using BCALs (Behavioral Context Addressable Loggers in the Shell), a wearable, behavioral context information-measuring instrument, for re-estimating label information such as facility type and transport mode from ecological and environmental sensors based on learning models. The numerical values observed by these sensors differed greatly among locations or means of transportation, revealing the high possibility of automatic identification of locations and means of transportation using BCALs.     

A random heaping model of annual vehicle kilometres travelled considering heterogeneous approximation in reporting

Transportation - Annual vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is a long used index of car use. Usually, the annual VKT, as reported by respondents, is used for the analysis. But the reported values...     

A long panel survey to elicit variation in preferences and attitudes in the choice of electric vehicles

This paper describes the methodology we set up to gather appropriate data to study the impact of real life experience with electric vehicles (EVs) over a relatively long period of time on individual preferences and attitudes. We used stated choices (SC) to elicit individual preferences because EVs and their associated charging infrastructure are not yet fully integrated onto the market. Furthermore, to measure the extent to which the experience of using an EV may affect individual preferences and attitudes, we set up a “long panel” survey, where data was gathered before and after individuals experienced an EV in real life during a three-month period. We also measured attitudinal effects (AE) that might affect the choice of an EV by individuals. To our knowledge, this represents the first example of a “long panel” SC/AE and the first attempt to measure the formation of preferences and attitudes for this emerging product. Our results show that preferences and attitudes are indeed affected by real life experience. In the SC experiment, the respondents only chose the EV half as often as compared to the situation where they had not yet tried it. Furthermore, we measured a change in attitude for statements regarding the use of EVs. On the whole, respondents got a more positive view of the EV driving performance and this change is significantly greater for women than for men. However, respondents expressed more concern about being able to maintain current mobility with an EV. The data gathered in this survey should also serve to analyse the changes generated by direct experience with EVs, and eventually to formulate and estimate advanced discrete choice models that allow insights into factors relevant for improved understanding of market behaviour.     

Selfishness and altruism in the distribution of travel time and income

Most economic models assume that individuals act out their preferences based on self-interest alone. However, there have also been other paradigms in economics that aim to capture aspects of behavior that include fairness, reciprocity, and altruism. In this study we empirically examine preferences of travel time and income distributions with and without the respondent knowing their own position in each distribution. The data comes from a Stated Preference experiment where subjects were presented paired alternative distributions of travel time and income. The alternatives require a tradeoff between distributional concerns and the respondent’s own position. Choices also do not penalize or reward any particular choice. Overall, choices show individuals are willing forgo alternatives where they would be individually well off in the interest of distributional concerns in both the travel time and income cases. Exclusively self-interested choices are seen more in the income questions, where nearly 25 % of respondents express such preferences, than in the travel time case, where only 5 % of respondents make such choices. The results also suggest that respondents prioritize their own position differently relative to regional distributions of travel time and income. Estimated choice models show that when it comes to travel time, individuals are more concerned with societal average travel time followed by the standard deviation in the region and finally their own travel time, while in the case of income they are more concerned with their own income, followed by a desire for more variability, and finally increasing the minimum income in their region. When individuals do not know their fate after a policy change that affects regional travel time, their choices appear to be mainly motivated by risk averse behavior and aim to reduce variability in outcomes. On the other hand, in the income context, the expected value appears to drive choices. In all cases, population-wide tastes are also estimated and reported.     

Incentives for promoting Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption in Norway

Norway has become a global forerunner in the field of electromobility and the BEV market share is far higher than in any other country. One likely reason for this is strong incentives for promoting purchase and ownership of BEVs. The purpose of this study is to describe the role of incentives for promoting BEVs, and to determine what incentives are critical for deciding to buy a BEV and what groups of buyers respond to different types of incentives. The questions are answered with data from a survey among nearly 3400 BEV owners in Norway.Exemptions from purchase tax and VAT are critical incentives for more than 80% of the respondents. This is very much in line with previous research, which suggests that up-front price reduction is the most powerful incentive in promoting EV adoption. To a substantial number of BEV owners, however, exemption from road tolling or bus lane access is the only decisive factor.Analyses show that there are clear delineations between incentive groups, both in terms of age, gender, and education. Income is a less prominent predictor, which probably results from the competitive price of BEVs in the Norwegian market. Perhaps most interesting is the assumed relation between incentives and character of transport systems the respondents engage in.     

Interactive stated choice surveys: a study of air travel behaviour

Stated preference (SP) experiments are becoming an increasingly popular survey methodology for investigating travel behaviour. Nevertheless, some evidence suggests that SP experiments do not mirror decisions in real markets. With an increasing number of real world decisions made using the internet, an opportunity exists to improve the realism of the SP counterparts of such choices by aligning the choice environment with such online portals. In this paper, we illustrate the benefits of such an approach in the context of air travel surveys. Our survey is modelled on the interface and functionality of an online travel agent (OTA). As with a real OTA, many ticket options are presented. Sort tools allow the options to be reordered, search tools allow options to be removed from consideration, and a further tool allows attributes to be hidden and shown. Extensive use of these tools is made by the 462 respondents. A traditional SP component was also completed by the respondents. Our exploratory analysis as well as random utility model estimation results confirm not only that respondents seem to engage more actively with the interactive survey, but also that the resulting data allows for better performance in model estimation compared to a more conventional SP experiment. These results have implications for the study of other complex travel choices where interactive surveys may similarly be preferable to standard approaches.     

The impact of transportation alternatives on the decision to cease driving by older adults in Japan

This study investigated whether the availability of transportation alternatives for older drivers is a determinant of the decision to cease driving. We recruited participants from a total of 7827 drivers aged 69 years or older living in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan who were scheduled to renew their driving license between February and April 2011. In November 2010, we distributed questionnaires to collect data on predictors of driving cessation, and again in December 2012 to determine who had actually ceased driving. The relative impacts of factors related to driving cessation were then estimated. Of the 3089 respondents, 157 did not renew their license. The strongest determinants of this decision were having been advised to stop driving and if they had developed less confidence in their ability to drive safely. Even so, respondents were far more likely to have actually stopped driving if they were sure that someone else was available to provide a ride when they needed one. The final decision to stop driving is strongly influenced by personal convenience based on private transport, especially amongst drivers who have been advised to stop. The availability of public transport alternatives is not as important a factor in this decision.     

The role of incentives towards adolescents’ commitment to use public transport in Malaysia

This study examines the adoption of a travel behaviour modification programme to encourage sustainable mobility and public bus usage. Students from four schools in Penang Island were recruited and divided into two groups: Group 1 (without incentives) and Group 2 (with incentives). In the experiment, after having a motivation session about sustainable transport, the respondents were asked to design their travel patterns for seven days. The next session gathered data about their actual travel and asked for feedback regarding the programme. The results demonstrate that incentives encouraged respondents to follow their plans for travel behaviour and public bus usage. The results highlight that their commitment to follow their travel plans were influenced by ethnicity, distance from home to school, travel time, and household income. The study offers some discussion regarding the implications of the results for strengthening sustainable mobility and encouraging public bus use among adolescents.     

Understanding public response to a congestion charge: A random-effects ordered logit approach

Public acceptance is consistently listed as having an enormous impact on the implementation and success of a congestion charge scheme. This paper investigates public acceptance of such a scheme in Australia. Surveys were conducted in Brisbane and Melbourne, the two fastest growing Australian cities. Using an ordered logit modeling approach, the survey data including stated preferences were analyzed to pinpoint the important factors influencing people’s attitudes to a congestion charge and, in turn, to their transport mode choices. To accommodate the nature of, and to account for the resulting heterogeneity of the panel data, random effects were considered in the models. As expected, this study found that the amount of the congestion charge and the financial benefits of implementing it have a significant influence on respondents’ support for the charge and on the likelihood of their taking a bus to city areas. However, respondents’ current primary transport mode for travelling to the city areas has a more pronounced impact. Meanwhile, respondents’ perceptions of the congestion charge’s role in protecting the environment by reducing vehicle emissions, and of the extent to which the charge would mean that they travelled less frequently to the city for shopping or entertainment, also have a significant impact on their level of support for its implementation. We also found and explained notable differences across two cities. Finally, findings from this study have been fully discussed in relation to the literature.     

Biases in response over time in a seven-day travel diary

Data from multi-day travel or activity diaries might be biased if recording inaccuracies and tendencies for respondents to skip certain types of trips or activities increases (or decreases) from day-to-day over the diary period. One objective of the research reported here is to test for such temporal biases in a seven-day travel diary. A second objective is to calculate correction factors which can be applied to the data in the case that biases are found. The analyses were conducted using regression and analysis-of-variance techniques. The variables investigated included total trips per day, total travel time per day, and trips per day by various modes (such as walking, car driver and car passenger). Results showed that most biases per capita statistics are due to increases over time in the percentage of respondents reporting no travel at all for an entire day. However, even after accounting for this bias by measuring statistics in terms of per mobile person, there remains a decrease over time of about 3.5 percent per day in the reporting of walking trips. This appears to be the main factor in the overall bias of about one percent per day in total trips per mobile person per day. No significant differences were found among population segments in terms of the levels of their biases.     

Gendered immobility: influence of social roles and local context on mobility decisions in Pakistan

This paper examines the instances of one-day immobility in Pakistan and reports its socio-demographic determinants using the nationally representative dataset of the 2007 Pakistan Time Use Survey. Of 37,830 time diary respondents, nearly 30% did not report travel during the diary day. Homemakers and those out of the workforce were more likely to be immobile than employed or student respondents. Immobility rates were very high among women (55%) as compared to men (4%). Among women, those between 20 and 34 years of age, married, with children, having better education, dependent on other household members and those living in higher income households were more likely to be immobile. The excessive gender nature of immobility seems to be triggered by a gender-based sociocultural environment, which restricts female mobility due to family honor concerns. Other than this, those living in the provinces of Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or in urban areas were more likely to be immobile than those living in Punjab and Sindh provinces or in rural areas. The significant geographic effect at broader spatial scale is caused by the demographic structure as well as due to differences in the social and cultural context of these areas. Finally, questions regarding the measurement of immobility and the potential implications of increased female immobility are discussed.