A latent class joint mode and departure time choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

This paper presents a closed-form Latent Class Model (LCM) of joint mode and departure time choices. The proposed LCM offers compound substitution patterns between the two choices. The class-specific choice models are of two opposing nesting structures, each of which provides expected maximum utility feedback to the corresponding class membership model. Such feedback allows switching class membership in response to the changes in choice contexts. The model is used for an empirical investigation of commuting mode and departure time choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) by using a large sample household travel survey dataset. The empirical model reveals that overall 38% of the commuters in the GTHA are more likely to switch modes than departure times and 62% of them are more likely to do the reverse. The empirical model also reveals that the average Subjective Value of Travel Time Savings (SVTTS) of the commuters in the GTHA can be as low as 3 dollars if a single choice pattern of departure time choices nested within mode choices is considered. It can also be as high as 67 dollars if the opposite nesting structure is assumed. However, the LCM estimates the average SVTTS to be around 27 dollars in the GTHA. An empirical scenario analysis by using the estimated model indicates that a 50% increase in morning peak period car travel time does not sway more than 4% of commuters from the morning peak period.

     

Factors underlying the connections between active transportation and public transit at commuter rail in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Transportation - Encouraging the integration of active transportation with transit is increasingly being pursued as a strategy by transit agencies to boost alternative means to access transit...     

Heterogeneity in marginal value of urban mobility: evidence from a large-scale household travel survey in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Transportation - The value of mobility is an unresolved question in transportation economics literature. The advent of ride-hailing services and the emergence of mobility as a service (MaaS) place...     

A comparison of the sustainability of public and private transportation systems: Study of the Greater Toronto Area

A macroscopic assessment of the impacts of private and public transportation systems on the sustainability of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is undertaken from economic, environmental and social perspectives. The methodology draws upon the urban metabolism and sustainability indicators approaches to assessing urban sustainability, but compares modes in terms of passenger-kms. In assessing the economic sustainability of a city, transportation should be recognized as a product, a driver and a cost. In 1993, the traded costs of automobile use in the GTA were approximately balanced by the value of the automobile parts and assembly industry. But local transit costs 1/3 to 1/6 of the auto costs per person-km, in traded dollars, mainly because local labour is the primary cost.Public transportation is more sustainable from an environmental perspective. Automobile emissions are a major contributor to air pollution, which is a serious contemporary environmental health problem in Toronto. Public transportation modes are less energy intensive (including indirect energy consumption) and produce CO₂ at an order of magnitude lower, although these benefits are partially undermined by under-utilization of transit capacity and the source of electricity generation.The social benefits of automobile use are likely more significant than costs in determining GTA residents' preferential mode choice. The speed and access of auto use provide important economic benefits, e.g. relating to employment and product choice. Nevertheless, offsetting the service attributes of private transportation are large social costs in terms of accidents. The costs of automobile insurance provide one tangible measure of such negative impacts.In order to improve the sustainability of the GTA, innovative approaches are required for improving the performance level of public transportation or substantially reducing the need for the service level provided by automobiles. Efforts such as greater integration of bicycles with public transit, or construction of light-rail systems in wide roadways, might be considered. But to be sustainable overall, a transportation system has to be flexible and adaptable and so must combine a mixture of modes.     

Fully autonomous vehicles: analyzing transportation network performance and operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area,Canada

Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to considerably change urban mobility in the future. This study simulates potential AV operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, and assesses transportation system performance on a regional level. For each scenario, the base capacities of certain types of road links are modified to simulate the theoretical increase in throughput enabled by AV driving behavior. Another scenario examines driverless parking operations in downtown Toronto. Simulation results indicate that the increased attractiveness of freeways relative to other routes leads to slightly increased average travel distance as vehicles divert to access higher capacity road links. Average travel time is found to decrease by up to one-fifth at the 90% AV market penetration level. Concurrently, localized increases in congestion suggest that proactive transportation planning will be needed to mitigate negative consequences of AV adoption, especially in relation to induced demand for personal automobile travel.     

An investigation of commuting trip timing and mode choice in the Greater Toronto Area: Application of a joint discrete-continuous model

The trip timing and mode choice are two critical decisions of individual commuters mostly define peak period traffic congestion in urban areas. Due to the increasing evidence in many North American cities that the duration of the congested peak travelling periods is expanding (peak spreading), it becomes necessary and natural to investigate these two commuting decisions jointly. In addition to being considered jointly with mode choice decisions, trip timing must also be modelled as a continuous variable in order to precisely capture peak spreading trends in a policy sensitive transportation demand model. However, in the literature to date, these two fundamental decisions have largely been treated separately or in some cases as integrated discrete decisions for joint investigation. In this paper, a discrete-continuous econometric model is used to investigate the joint decisions of trip timing and mode choice for commuting trips in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The joint model, with a multinomial logit model for mode choice and a continuous time hazard model for trip timing, allows for unrestricted correlation between the unobserved factors influencing these two decisions. Models are estimated by occupation groups using 2001 travel survey data for the GTA. Across all occupation groups, strong correlations between unobserved factors influencing mode choice and trip timing are found. Furthermore, the estimated model proves that it sufficiently captures the peak spreading phenomenon and is capable of being applied within the activity-based travel demand model framework.     

An analysis of trip length and land use patterns in the Greater Athens Area

The research described in this paper is an attempt to quantify the impact of a certain distribution of land uses upon trip characteristics — notably trip lengths. The idea is to relate trip lengths classified by mode and purpose to the distance of one trip end from the conurbation centre. The latter is defined as the point which represents a reasonable estimate of the place where the economic, administrative, and cultural life of the urban area is centered.By relating trip lengths to the distance of one trip end from the centre, one could obtain a relation which in effect would be a quantitative expression of the relation between transport and land use. The first application of this idea was in London using the 1966 journey to work data, and it gave quite satisfactory results.The area examined in this research is the Greater Athens Area. The method of analysis is similar to that followed in London so the results of the two studies can be compared. Only work trips are considered for four modes: car, bus, train and all modes (total). It is found that in the case of Athens too, when distance of the workplace from the centre is considered, trip lengths change in smoothly varying ways and a series of mathematical curves can be fitted to the data with an acceptable degree of accuracy. These curves are of the Gamma family having a constant spread factor and varying scale factors for each mode considered. When the distance of the residence end of the trip from the centre is considered, the trip length distributions are not very smooth, a clear mathematical curve cannot be fitted, but again a considerable degree of order can be detected. In addition to the above results a discussion is given on their meaning and the possibilities for future research. In fact the results so far are considered to be the first stage of a more extended research programme which will eventually connect trip length distributions to income and other economic or social parameters in an urban area.The author wishes to express his thanks and appreciation for the comments and constructive criticism made on the various drafts of this paper by M.J.M.     

Mathematical characterization of spatiotemporal congested traffic patterns: mixed speed data analysis in the greater Toronto and Hamilton area,Canada

This paper formulates a comprehensive methodology for analyzing, quantifying and identifying congestion characteristics based on speed distribution. Utilizing vehicle speed data, a mathematical approach is applied, in order to characterize roadway segments, in terms of travel reliability, congestion severity and duration. We argue that the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and its parameter combination is the appropriate tool if we are to obtain quantitative congestion measures and rank roadway performance. A significant contribution of our approach is that it is based on assumptions regarding mixed components as well as speed distribution and can be applied to large databases. We test our framework on the greater Toronto and Hamilton area in Ontario, Canada, and conclude that congestion quantification through the application of the GMM can be successfully accomplished. Results indicate that speed patterns differ significantly between counties as well as days of the week.     

Time-dependent congestion pricing system for large networks: Integrating departure time choice,dynamic traffic assignment and regional travel surveys in the Greater Toronto Area

Congestion pricing is one of the widely contemplated methods to manage traffic congestion. The purpose of congestion pricing is to manage traffic demand generation and supply allocation by charging fees (i.e., tolling) for the use of certain roads in order to distribute traffic demand more evenly over time and space. This study presents a framework for large-scale variable congestion pricing policy determination and evaluation. The proposed framework integrates departure time choice and route choice models within a regional dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) simulation environment. The framework addresses the impact of tolling on: (1) road traffic congestion (supply side), and (2) travelers’ choice dimensions including departure time and route choices (demand side). The framework is applied to a simulation-based case study of tolling a major freeway in Toronto while capturing the regional effects across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The models are developed and calibrated using regional household travel survey data that reflect the heterogeneity of travelers’ attributes. The DTA model is calibrated using actual traffic counts from the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and the City of Toronto. The case study examined two tolling scenarios: flat and variable tolling. The results indicate that: (1) more benefits are attained from variable pricing, that mirrors temporal congestion patterns, due to departure time rescheduling as opposed to predominantly re-routing only in the case of flat tolling, (2) widespread spatial and temporal re-distributions of traffic demand are observed across the regional network in response to tolling a significant, yet relatively short, expressway serving Downtown Toronto, and (3) flat tolling causes major and counterproductive rerouting patterns during peak hours, which was observed to block access to the tolled facility itself.     

Egocentric social networks and social interactions in the Greater Tokyo Area

Transportation - This article presents the results of a survey on egocentric social networks in the Greater Tokyo Area. This is, together with our preliminary study, the first study on egocentric...     

Trend analysis of activity generation attributes over time

Activity generation models are relatively poorly developed in activity-based travel demand modelling frameworks. This research investigates whether observed distributions of activity attributes (activity frequency, start time and duration) used as inputs in the activity generation component of an activity-based travel demand model have changed over time. This research empirically examines changes in the distributions of activity generation attributes over time in the Greater Montreal area (GMA), Quebec, Canada. It also focuses on how these attributes vary with peoples’ socio-demographic characteristics. This research relies on the 1998, 2003 and 2008 origin–destination (O–D) household travel surveys of the GMA. The comparative analysis at three time points in a 10-year period clearly reveals that distributions of activity attributes are significantly changing over time. Work and school activities show similar trends; frequency “1” has increased and frequency “2+” has decreased over time. The occurrence of shopping activity on weekdays is decreasing over time. Start time and duration distributions for each activity have also changed significantly over time. The research allows preparing activity attributes for the application of an activity-based model, TASHA, such that they reflect temporal changes in travel behaviour of the GMA.     

大伦敦职住空间关系及通勤交通研究

超大城市的职住空间关系和庞大的通勤交通需求是构建高效综合交通系统面临的严峻挑战。以大伦敦地区为例,面对中心区人口增速回归和就业密度攀升,职住空间分布圈层化、走廊化的发展趋势,大伦敦构建了多模式、多层次的综合交通体系来应对日益增长的通勤压力,可为我国超大城市提供经验借鉴。     

粤港澳大湾区船舶污染风险分析及防治对策研究

2019年2月18日中共中央、国务院印发了《粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要》,其中航运清洁发展是重要的内容之一。面对粤港澳大湾区水路运输高速发展的态势,尤其是石油及其制品的运量快速增长,船舶及其有关作业活动对水域环境造成的污染风险越来越大,大湾区内各市均不同程度面临着严峻的船舶污染防治形势。为保障国家、行业以及《规划纲要》关于船舶污染防治措施和要求的落实,本研究对大湾区船舶污染风险进行了分析,梳理了大湾区船舶污染防治现状,并提出了相应的污染防治对策。     

粤港澳大湾区背景下东莞市交通发展对策

东莞市作为粤港澳大湾区核心城市,位于港深莞惠及广佛两大都市圈的双重辐射、广深核心交通走廊上,"自下而上"的管理模式也导致了区域发展的不均衡。本文结合东莞市最新居民出行调查数据,首次系统分析了东莞市特色的城市及交通发展特征,并对粤港澳大湾区发展背景下交通发展面临机遇与挑战进行了判断,从区域与城市协调发展、坚持东莞特色发展及保障公共服务均等化等方面提出交通发展策略,从共建共享区域设施、构建差异化组团公交发展模式、尽快启动小汽车需求管理等方面给出了符合组团型特大城市发展特色的交通对策,为东莞市及都市圈同类城市交通发展提供借鉴。     

Involvement in clubs or voluntary associations, social networks and activity generation: a path analysis

Leisure activities have received increasing attention from travel behavior researchers over the past decade. However, these activities are often treated as a single category, neglecting their differences. Whereas most leisure activities are flexible, club activities are usually scheduled longer in advance and are more fixed in time, location and company. Hence, trip-generating properties of club activities are likely to differ from those of other leisure activities. As very little is known about involvement in clubs or voluntary associations in relation to trip generation, voluntary association activities deserve further research in relation to travel. Therefore, in this paper a path analysis is conducted, analyzing the relationships between participation in clubs or voluntary associations, trip frequencies, and social network characteristics. The analyses are based on data collected in 2011 in Eindhoven in the Netherlands in a survey among 516 respondents. The results show interesting relationships between the social context and involvement in clubs. They indicate that people become club members through their social networks, and frequent club activities increase social network size. Family oriented people were found to go less often to clubs. Club membership and the frequency of going to club activities were also found to be affected by socio-demographics, such as gender, age, education, work, presence of young children in the household and owning a season ticket for public transport.     

关于山区农村公路最大纵坡与坡长限制的探讨

文章根据我国目前公路工程技术标准,通过对重庆地区山区农村公路的纵坡进行调查,分析了山区农村公路的特点和功能,探讨适合山区农村公路最大纵坡与坡长的设计方法。     

Dynamic analysis of trip generation

A number of models are presented and estimated describing the correlation of trip making over time. Unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account using random effects. The basic models considered are the serial correlation and the state-dependence model. Trip making in total and by transit was best described using state-dependence models; trip making by car by a model with lagged exogenous variables. The generalized methods of moments procedure is used for estimation of the models: it is asymptotically efficient and does not require assumptions about the initial conditions.     

Development of simulated driving cycles for light,medium, and heavy duty trucks: Case of the Toronto Waterfront Area

Driving cycles are an important input for state-of-the-art vehicle emission models. Development of a driving cycle requires second-by-second vehicle speed for a representative set of vehicles. Current standard driving cycles cannot reflect or forecast changes in traffic conditions. This paper introduces a method to develop representative driving cycles using simulated data from a calibrated microscopic traffic simulation model of the Toronto Waterfront Area. The simulation model is calibrated to reflect road counts, link speeds, and accelerations using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The simulation is validated by comparing simulated vs. observed passenger freeway cycles. The simulation method is applied to develop AM peak hour driving cycles for light, medium and heavy duty trucks. The demonstration reveals differences in speed, acceleration, and driver aggressiveness between driving cycles for different vehicle types. These driving cycles are compared against a range of available driving cycles, showing different traffic conditions and driving behaviors, and suggesting a need for city-specific driving cycles. Emissions from the simulated driving cycles are also compared with EPA’s Heavy Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule showing higher emission factors for the Toronto Waterfront cycles.     

A conceptual framework of individual activity program generation

The research in this paper attempts to better understand the process by which activities are generated at an individual level. Activity-based travel analyses have gained popularity in recent years because they recognize the complexity of activity behavior and view travel as a derivative of this behavior. Most activity-based studies have focused on the spatial and temporal linkage of trips; that is, the scheduling of activities. They consider the agenda of activities for participation, and associated attributes of the activity participation (such as mode to activity and location of activity performance), as predetermined. This paper develops a comprehensive conceptual framework of the relatively unexplored area of activity agenda generation. Such a framework will be valuable in empirical modeling of activity generation behavior. A subsequent paper focuses on translating a part of this conceptual framework into an empirical model.     

Simulations of traffic congestion in Toronto

A traffic flow simulation program is used to estimate the external time costs that an additional vehicle using a congested city street imposes on other motorists on that street. The traffic flow on two street networks in Toronto is simulated for the morning rush hour and a mid-day period. After simulating the actual traffic load in these two periods, traffic volumes on individual streets were varied one at a time by one hundred vehicles per hour. The incremental delay to other vehicles from the addition of these vehicles is calculated by the program and the number of vehicle hours of delay per additional vehicle mile travelled is determined. Assuming a value of time for all motorists, the incremental external time cost attributed to the added traffic on each street in each direction during each of the two periods can be determined.The stimulated traffic variations show that the marginal external social cost of an added vehicle mile considering time costs alone ranges from zero on some roads to over one dollar per vehicle mile in the heavy direction in the morning rush hour. The average of this external congestion cost in the suburban area for inbound motorists in the morning period, weighted by the volume of traffic, was 38 cents per vehicle mile.This study demonstrates the usefulness of a traffic simulation program for estimating congestion costs, and identifies some problems inherent in previous empirical approaches to this problem.