Rural speed limit changes and safety

There is little information in the literature on the relation between rural speed and safety. The wide variation in rural speed limits that are applied in different countries tends to confirm that this relation is poorly understood. The changes in fatal, injury and all accidents that followed a change in the rural speed limit in seven countries were regressed against the change in vehicle mean speed. The results showed that speed significantly affects safety and that within certain limits the relation is linear. The regressions indicated that a 1 km/h reduction in speed will reduce all severities of accidents by between 4 and 5%. It is suggested that part of this reduction is due to a change in economic factors.     

Rail network accessibility and the demand for inter-urban rail travel

This paper reviews methods that have and can be used to forecast the effect of changes in accessibility to the rail network on the demand for inter-urban rail travel and of available evidence on rail accessibility elasticities. It reveals that relatively little research has been conducted in this area and that the forecasting procedures that could be used imply large variation in accessibility elasticities, which has not been empirically justified. Fresh empirical evidence on two related matters is reported. First, the neglected area of choice set composition is examined and the extent to which rail is considered to be a realistic alternative for inter-urban journeys and the contribution that accessibility to the rail network makes to this are analysed. Second, rail trip rate models are presented that not only contain estimates of accessibility elasticities and of the effects of a range of socio-economic variables on the demand for rail travel, but also that allow tests of the accessibility elasticity variation implied by many forecasting procedures to be conducted. It is found that this elasticity variation is not empirically supported. It is concluded that there is only limited scope for increasing rail demand through improvements in rail network accessibility.     

Effects of task complexity and time pressure on activity-travel choices: heteroscedastic logit model and activity-travel simulator experiment

This paper derives, estimates and applies a discrete choice model of activity-travel behaviour that accommodates potential effects of task complexity and time pressure on decision-making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both factors (task complexity and time pressure) are jointly captured in a discrete choice model. More specifically, our heteroscedastic logit model captures potential impacts of task complexity and time pressure through the scale of the utility of activity-travel options. We collect data using a novel activity-travel simulator experiment that has been specifically designed with the aim of testing our model. Results are in line with expectations, in that higher levels of task complexity and time pressure are found to result in a smaller scale of utility. In other words, higher levels of task complexity and time pressure lead to more random choice behaviour and as a consequence to less pronounced differences in choice probabilities between alternatives. An empirical illustration suggests that choice probability-differences between models that do and those that do not capture these effects, can be very substantial; this in turn suggests that failing to capture the effects of task complexity and time pressure in discrete choice models of activity travel decision-making might lead to serious bias in forecasts of the effects of transport policies.     

Significant characteristics of the urban rail renaissance in the United States: A discriminant analysis

In the rebirth of light-rail in the US, there has been little quantitative work detailing the differences between cities that have built rail transit and those that have not. In this study, 18 independent variables measuring a variety of characteristics that might promote or hinder rail transit construction are examined for 13 cities that built rail and 22 that did not, but considered it. After isolating the most significant variables, a two-group discriminant analysis generates a function from a randomly chosen set of 25 cities, and then cross-validates it on a separate set of 10. That model attempts to classify the cities into their respective groups. A model with three significant independent variables is generated that correctly classifies 33 of the 35 cities. The results indicate that cities which chose to build rail already had relatively well-used bus systems. There also appears to be an image and economic development aspect associated with rail construction.     

Effects of passenger characteristics and terminal layout on airport retail revenue: an agent-based simulation approach

This paper examines the effect of passenger characteristics and terminal layout on airport retail revenue using an agent-based simulation approach. Simulation results show that passenger mix (that is, the mix of shopper types according to a typology of airport shoppers) has a profound effect on airport retail revenue; the larger the number of ‘shopping lovers’ there are among passengers, the higher the airport retail revenue. Results also reveal that group travel can lead to negative effects on retail in certain terminal layouts, and that the amount of free dwell time that a passenger has can affect spending due to less retail engagement. This paper shows a combined effect of passenger characteristics and terminal layout on airport retail revenue, and discusses the implications of these results for future airport terminal design that aims to maximise retail potential.     

Increasing the capacity of an isolated merge by metering its on-ramp

Measurements taken downstream of freeway/on-ramp merges have previously shown that discharge flow diminishes when a merge becomes an isolated bottleneck. By means of observation and experiment, we show here that metering an on-ramp can recover the higher discharge flow at a merge and thereby increase the merge capacity. Detailed observations were collected at a single merge using video. These data revealed that the reductions in discharge flow are triggered by a queue that forms near the merge in the freeway shoulder lane and then spreads laterally, as drivers change lanes to maneuver around slow traffic. Our experiments show that once restrictive metering mitigated this shoulder lane queue, high outflows often returned to the median lane. High merge outflows could be restored in all freeway lanes by then relaxing the metering rate so that inflows from the on-ramp increased. Although outflows recovered in this fashion were not sustained for periods greater than 13 min, the findings are the first real evidence that ramp metering can favorably affect the capacity of an isolated merge. Furthermore, these findings point to control strategies that might generate higher outflows for more prolonged periods and increase merge capacity even more. Finally, the findings uncover details of merge operation that are essential for developing realistic theories of merging traffic.     

套管腐蚀及屏蔽影响现场实验及其检测方法

通过模拟工程实践状态条件下,穿越管段套管腐蚀及屏蔽影响现场实验研究,阐述了套管对阴极保护电流屏蔽作用的变化规律,以及影响因素的相互作用关系;验证了套管中安装牺牲阳极对于减缓屏蔽影响、提高保护效果的重要作用;根据理论研究及实验数据的分析,提出了套管腐蚀状况和屏蔽影响的判别和推荐的检测方法。     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

Airline market share and customer service quality: a reference-dependent model

Traditional models that explain the nature of the relationship between customer service quality and airline demand assume that the relationship can be approximated by using smooth or differentiable curves. Suzuki and Tyworth, however, recently argued that this assumption may not be valid, and that, if it is invalid, the model performance can be improved by using non-smooth functions to represent the relationship (Suzuki, Y., Tyworth, J.E., 1998. A theoretical framework for modeling sales-service relationships in the transportation industry. Transportation Research E 34 (2), 87–100). We use their framework to develop a model that represents the relationship between service quality and market share in the airline industry and then empirically compare its performance with conventional airline demand models. The results indicate that the relationship is characterized by a non-smooth curve and that our model provides a significantly better goodness of fit than other conventional demand models.     

The joint estimation of respondent-reported certainty and acceptability with choice

In the stated choice literature, increasing attention has been paid to methods that seek to close the gap between the choices from these experiments and the choices experienced in the real world. Attempts to produce model estimates that are truer to real market behaviours are especially important for transportation, where many important policy decisions rely on such experiments. A recent approach that has emerged makes use of a certainty index whereby respondents report how certain they are about each choice they make. Additional literature also posits that when making decisions, people first identify an acceptable set of alternatives (alternative acceptability) such that a consideration set if formed and it is from this reduced set that the ultimate choice is made. This paper presents two models that jointly estimates choice and choice certainty and choice and alternative acceptability. This joint estimation allows the modeller to overcome potential endogeneity that may exist between these responses. In comparing choices of differing certainty, surprisingly little difference in marginal sensitivities are found. This is not the case in the alternative acceptability models however. An important finding of this research is that what could be interpreted as preference heterogeneity may in fact be more closely linked to scale. The ramifications of these results on future research are discussed.     

Bottom-up grassroots innovation in transport: motivations,barriers and enablers

Abstract

There is a growing phenomenon of grassroots innovation, that is, that triggered by individual users or communities (physical or virtual) seeking a solution to a personal or societal problem. This has great potential as a new source of sustainable transport innovations, but has received little attention to date. This study conducted 16 in-depth interviews and a workshop with grassroots innovators in transport. A detailed thematic analysis of the interview data identified: catalysts for the idea and the motivation behind its pursuit; the barriers experienced (those that were overcome and those that were not); and the enablers that permitted the innovations to continue and to flourish. The paper concludes by identifying the conditions that need to exist for such innovations to be created, developed and exploited in order that their potential for increasing the sustainability of the transport system can be fulfilled.     

Analyzing the time frame for the transition from leisure-cyclist to commuter-cyclist

A recent survey reported that many commuter-cyclists had enjoyed leisure bicycling on a regular basis prior to becoming a commuter-cyclist. While bicycling for leisure, it is assumed that they considered various factors that led them to consider becoming commuter-cyclists. This study began with the question of how long it would take for a leisure-cyclist to become a commuter-cyclist, and it focused on the time that elapsed between leisure-cyclists transitioning to commuter-cycling. In order to analyze the time frame, it was hypothesized that the probability that a leisure-cyclist would become a commuter-cyclist at a certain time would be conditional on the duration that elapsed from the onset of leisure cycling till that time, which represents the “snowballing” or “inertial” dynamics of duration. A robust methodology, which is known as the “hazard model,” was adopted to accommodate such characteristics of a time period. In addition, various external covariates such as individual-specific characteristics, variables associated with the current or previous commuting mode, supply variables regarding bicycle facilities, and individual latent propensities were adopted to account for the duration of changes that would be generally applicable. As a result, many useful results were derived that could be used in fomenting policies to promote cycling to work. It was found that government should invest in establishing segregated lanes for leisure- and commuter-cyclists. It also turned out that a long distance to work hinders a leisure-cyclist from progressing to commuter-cycling. According to the results, young white-collar workers who live in high-rise apartments and enjoy intensive leisure-cycling in groups, are a good target toward whom promotions for commuter-cycling should be focused. However, an unfortunate development was that, when compared with car-commuters, it was found that transit-commuters are more likely to become commuter-cyclists.     

Dual influences on vehicle speed in special-use lanes and critique of US regulation

We verify that slow speeds in a special-use lane, such as a carpool or bus lane, can be due to both, high demand for that lane and slow speeds in the adjacent regular-use lane. These dual influences are confirmed from months of data collected from all freeway carpool facilities in the San Francisco Bay Area. Additional data indicate that both influences hold: for other types of special-use lanes, including bus lanes; and for other parts of the world.The findings do not bode well for a new US regulation stipulating that most classes of Low-Emitting Vehicles, or LEVs, are to vacate slow-moving carpool lanes. These LEVs invariably constitute small percentages of traffic; e.g. they are only about 1% of the freeway traffic demand in the San Francisco Bay Area. Yet, we show: that relegating some or all of these vehicles to regular-use lanes can significantly add to regular-lane congestion; and that this, in turn, can also be damaging to vehicles that continue to use the carpool lanes. Counterproductive outcomes of this kind are predicted first by applying kinematic wave analysis to a real Bay Area freeway. Its measured data indicate that the site selected for this analysis stands to suffer less from the regulation than will others in the region. Yet, we predict: that the regulation will cause the site’s people-hours and vehicle-hours traveled during the rush to each increase by more than 10%; and that carpool-lane traffic will share in the damages. Real data from the site support these predictions. Further parametric analysis of a hypothetical, but more generic freeway system indicates that these kinds of negative outcomes will be widespread. Constructive ways to amend the new regulation are discussed, as are promising strategies to increase the vehicle speeds in carpool lanes by improving the travel conditions in regular lanes.     

Equity effects of congestion pricing: Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm

It is widely recognised that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve environmental and congestion problems in urban areas—a reform that normally also would generate a net welfare surplus. Despite this the implementation of congestion pricing has been very slow. One reason for a low public and political acceptance could be that equity impacts have not been given enough concern. In studies of distributional impacts of congestion pricing it has often been claimed that the reform is regressive rather than progressive even if there are studies claiming the opposite. We develop a method for detailed, quantitative assessment of equity effects of road pricing and apply it to a real-world example, namely a proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm. The method simultaneously takes into account differences in travel behaviour, in preferences (such as values of time) and in supply of travel possibilities (car ownership, public transport level-of-service etc.). We conclude that the two most important factors for the net impact of congestion pricing are the initial travel patterns and how revenues are used. Differences in these respects dwarf differences in other factors such as values of time. This is accentuated by the fact that the total collected charges are more than three times as large as the net benefits. With respect to different groups, we find that men, high-income groups and residents in the central parts of the city will be affected the most. If revenues are used for improving public transport, this will benefit women and low-income groups the most. If revenues are used for tax cuts, the net benefits will be about equal for men and women on the average, while it naturally will benefit high-income groups. Given that it is likely that the revenues will be used to some extent to improve the public transport system, we conclude that the proposed congestion-charging scheme for Stockholm is progressive rather than regressive.     

Clean energy and transport pathways for islands: A stakeholder analysis using Q method

Introducing sustainable ways to use energy and transport resources is of paramount importance for creating pathways to more liveable futures. Islands not interconnected to the main grid offer, because of their typically small size, short point-to-point travel distances that suit better than most landscapes the range limitations of today’s electromobile eco-systems. This makes them a unique test-bed that may assist researchers, businesses and policy-makers in developing a better understanding of the diverse opportunities and challenges that come with supporting electric-drive vehicle (EV) infrastructure investments that actively prioritise renewable energy sources (RES). This paper reports the findings of a Q method study that looks into the attitudes of 44 key stakeholders that have a thorough theoretical and empirical knowledge of the existing power and mobility portfolios in such islandic landscapes. Our analysis identifies and presents three distinct groups of stakeholders with different priorities and visions: the ‘Tech Enthusiasts’, the ‘Transform Transport First Supporters’ and the ‘Fiscal Focus Executives’. All our respondents agree on the need for radically transforming the current transport-energy nexus offering. They identify the importance of integrated and clean solutions and recognise that support of pilot applications is more critical than research and development (R&D). They also expect technological breakthroughs to increase market maturities and reduce renewable energy production costs and feel that end-users are still hesitant to buy EVs and need incentives to do so.     

Using the sustainability footprint model to assess development impacts of transportation systems

A review of the sustainability literature reveals the lack of viable frameworks and management tools that can be used to accommodate both spatial and temporal variability in how stakeholder entities meet their sustainable development goals, taking into account the fact that different entities may need to pursue different priorities and also deal with different constraints and schedules at different stages of their development. This paper presents a sustainability footprint framework and model that may be used in analyzing the impacts of transportation and other infrastructure systems on regional sustainable development. A specific application of the framework is in the quality of life contributions that transportation systems may make to communities as a function of their impacts on natural assets that contribute inputs and absorb the byproducts of development. The application is illustrated in a case study that uses data from the Atlanta and Chicago Metropolitan Areas to demonstrate how this model may be applied in real life situations. The implications of this model for transport systems research, policy and practice are discussed. The value of this framework and model lie in introducing both spatial and temporal flexibility that may enable stakeholders with widely different priorities to reach consensus on interim goals for sustainable development to ultimately attain sustainability.     

Exploring senior officials’ policy beliefs regarding sustainable transportation

This study examines the policy beliefs of officials involved in developing and implementing sustainable transportation policies. It is found that officials tend to have stronger beliefs in the success of policies that impact less on personal freedoms of the public, and in particular, in policies that attract public support than force options upon them. It was also found that policy beliefs are positively related to officials’ seniority.     

Bayesian estimation of multinomial probit models of work trip choice

In this paper, we estimate a multinomial probit model of work trip mode choice in Seoul, Korea, using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. This method constructs a Markov chain Gibbs sampler that can be used to draw directly from the exact posterior distribution and perform finite sample likelihood inference. We estimate direct and cross-elasticities with respect to travel cost and the value of time. Our results show that travel demands are more sensitive to travel time than travel cost. The cross-elasticity results show that the bus has a greater substitute relation to the subway than the auto (and vice versa) and that an increase in the cost of an auto will increase the demand for bus transport more so than that of the subway.     

Value of travel time: An activity‐based analysis with combined RP and SP data

Under certain assumptions, values of travel time (VOT) can be divided into two parts: one associated with travel (i.e., the value of reducing travel time disutility) and the other associated with activities (the shadow price of time). The empirical results of combining RP and SP data showed that the VOT of travel was greater than that of activity. The results also showed that SP experiments that did not take or only took part of activities into consideration would underestimate VOT.