Improvement in the estimation and back-extrapolation of CO2 emissions from the Irish road transport sector using a bottom-up data modelling approach

Road transport is a major source of CO₂ emissions in Ireland and accounts for almost 96% of the total CO₂ emissions from the transport sector. Following the recent adopted UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories [24/CP.19], this study applied the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006 IPCC GLs) tier 3 approach to estimate CO₂ emissions from road transport at the vehicle category level, for the first time in Ireland. For this, disaggregated datasets were prepared based on year of vehicle registration and mileage since registration of the vehicle. Such an approach provided a more realistic national scenario in comparison to the use of average mileage degradation in emission calculations. This investigation comprised a recalculation of previous emissions estimates (1990–2012) and an estimation of CO₂ emissions in 2013 using a previously unavailable level of data disaggregation for vehicle mileage as well as using vehicle class specific data and an improved bottom-up estimation methodology in COPERT. Historic vehicle fleet data were restructured, annual mileage data were estimated in relation to the fleet data and back extrapolated using a regression approach.The results showed that the mileage degradation was not only subject to fuel technology, engine size, and age but also the emissions class and vehicle category. It was also observed that the disaggregated level of data provided a different CO₂ emissions split among the vehicle categories than that of previous estimations which were based on an aggregated level of data. Previous emissions inventories (1990–2012) were shown to have underestimated the share from diesel fuelled passenger cars by more than 56% in 2012. Diesel fuelled passenger cars were also found to account for the majority of CO₂ emissions from road transport activities in Ireland in 2013. The level and trend assessment showed that emissions from Euro-II and Euro-III classed vehicles especially for passenger cars, which have a significant contribution to the total emission in 2013 have caused an increase in fleet level emissions in Ireland. In addition, the results also showed that the emissions share from Light Duty Vehicles and Heavy Duty Vehicles were overestimated by previous investigations. This paper highlights the importance of the resolution of data used in emissions inventory preparation which may impact upon future projections and policy formulation. The findings of this investigation are also discussed in relation their implications for road transport policy, including carbon taxation and future policy options aimed at achieving EU emissions target in 2020.     

Is in-cabin exposure to carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter amplified by the vehicle’s self-pollution potential? Quantifying the rate of exhaust intrusion

In-cabin exposure has increased in recent years due to longer commute and/or prolonged times in cars. The intrusion of the vehicle’s own exhaust into the passenger’s compartment has been recognized as a process that amplifies in-cabin passenger exposure. Quantifying its contribution is hampered by uncertainties associated with its measurement method such as trace tests and the lack of data regarding certain critical physical parameters, particularly those pertaining to air exchange rate (AER) and particulate matter deposition rate (DR). In this study, we present a hybrid methodology combining field measurements with a single-zone mass balance to estimate these parameters as well as the source term that represents vehicle self-pollution. In- and out-vehicle carbon monoxide (CO) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) were monitored concurrently in test vehicles under idle and moving conditions using several common ventilation modes. In addition to defining a hybrid methodology to characterize the underlying physical parameters, this study found that vehicle self-pollution can account for approximately 15 and 30% of CO and PM_2.5 exposure experienced by vehicle occupants respectively. Vehicle self-exhaust intrusion may constitute a significant PM exposure route for vehicle-based occupations or commuters with prolonged time in vehicles.     

Hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles offer low-cost climate benefits in China

Car ownership in China is expected to grow dramatically in the coming decades. If growing personal vehicle demand is met with conventional cars, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will be substantial. One way to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from passenger travel is to meet growing demand for cars with alternative vehicles such as hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles (HEVs and BEVs). Our study examines the cost-effectiveness of transitioning from conventional cars to HEVs and BEVs, by calculating their marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon in the long-run. We find that transitioning from conventional to hybrid and battery electric light-duty, four-wheel vehicles can achieve carbon emissions reductions at a negative cost (i.e. at a net benefit) in China. In 2030, the average MAC is estimated to be about −$140/ton CO₂ for HEVs and −$515/ton CO₂-saved for BEVs, varying by key parameters. The total mitigation potential of each vehicle technology is estimated to be 1.38 million tons for HEVs and 0.75 million tons for BEVs.     

Assessment of motor vehicle use characteristics in three Indian cities

Estimates of emissions and energy consumption by vehicular fleet in India are not backed by reliable values of parameters, leading to large uncertainties. We report new methods, including primary surveys and secondary data sources, to estimate in-use fleet size, annual mileage (kilometers per year), and fuel efficiency of cars and motorised two-wheelers (MTW) for Delhi, and except fleet size and annual mileage of cars, for Visakhapatnam and Rajkot. We estimated that the official number of registered cars and MTW in Indian cities is more than two times the actual number of in-use vehicles. The private vehicular fleet in India is the youngest, its fuel efficiency one of the highest, and annual kilometers travelled is the lowest, compared to many high-income countries, such as the USA and those in European Union. Along with high renewal rate of fleet, the data suggest that it is possible for India to have one of the most fuel-efficient vehicle fleets in the world in the future, if fuel-efficiency standards and fiscal policies to contain growing dieselization are implemented in the country at the earliest.     

Ex-post analysis of impacts of the car registration fee in the Czech Republic

Currently, the influence of transportation and its impact on environmental indicators throughout the world are increasing; however, governments of particular countries try to implement new economic instruments with the expectations of changing people’s behaviour or at least environmental parameters of the motor vehicle fleet. The Government of the Czech Republic introduced a new economic instrument, which came into force on 1 January 2009 and was inspired by similar environmental taxes in Member States of the European Union – the car registration fee, which is based on emission parameters of cars. The main target of this fee has been to change the structure of the passenger car fleet in the Czech Republic, particularly to support new registrations of new passenger cars with better environmental characteristics and to decrease the share of new registrations of used passenger cars. This article focuses on an ex-post analysis of impacts of the car registration fee on the structure of the passenger car fleet in the Czech Republic and its environmental characteristics in the first 3 years after the legal mandate of the fee. The case study is based on a correlation analysis and an analysis of statistical data from official sources in the Czech Republic. The impacts of the car registration fee on both the structure of the passenger car fleet in the Czech Republic and the environmental characteristics of new registrations are significant. For the first time since 2004, the number of new registrations of new cars was higher in the period 2009–2011 than the number of new registrations of used cars. Moreover, the share of alternative fuel cars in the passenger car market is increasing and the emissions from private car transport are decreasing.     

What is the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany

Commercial passenger cars are a possible early market segment for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Compared to privately owned vehicles, the commercial vehicle segment is characterized by higher mileage and a higher share of vehicle sales in Germany. To this point, there are only few studies which analyze the commercial passenger car sector and arrive at contradictory results due to insufficient driving profile data with an observation period of only one day. Here, we calculate the market potential of PEVs for the German commercial passenger car sector by determining the technical and economical potential for PEVs in 2020 from multi-day driving profiles. We find that commercial vehicles are better suited for PEVs than private ones since they show higher average annual mileage and drive more regularly. About 87% of the analyzed three-week vehicle profiles can technically be fulfilled by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with an electric driving range of about 110 km while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with an electric range of 40 km could obtain an electric driving share of 60% on average. In moderate energy price scenarios, PEVs can reach a market share of 2–4% in the German commercial passenger car sales by 2020 and especially the large commercial branches (Trade, Manufacturing, Administrative services and Other services) are important. However, our analysis shows a high sensitivity of results to energy and battery prices as well as electric consumptions.     

A valuation of the environmental performance of vehicles: an analysis and comparison of two methodologies

The European Clean Vehicle Directive was introduced in 2009 to create an obligation on public authorities to take into account the impact of energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and pollutant emissions into their purchasing decisions for road transport vehicles. This should stimulate the market for clean and energy-efficient vehicles and improve transport's impact on environment, climate change and energy use. Therefore the so-called ‘Operational Lifetime Cost’ of a vehicle is calculated, divided into the cost for energy consumption, CO₂ and pollutant (nitrous oxide, particulate matter, non-methane hydrocarbons) emissions. In Belgium, a different methodology has been developed to calculate the environmental impact of a vehicle, called ‘Ecoscore’, based on a well-to-wheel approach. More pollutants are included compared to the Clean Vehicle methodology, but also indirect emissions are taken into account. In this paper, both methodologies are compared and used to analyze the environmental performance of passenger cars with different fuel types and from different vehicle segments. Similar rankings between both methodologies are obtained; however, the large impact of energy use (and CO₂ emissions) in the Clean Vehicle methodology disadvantages compressed natural gas cars, as well as diesel cars equipped with particulate filters, compared to the Ecoscore methodology.     

Well-to-wheel assessment of natural gas vehicles and their fuel supply infrastructures – Perspectives on gas in transport in Denmark

In this paper, potential natural gas and renewable natural gas supply pathways and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) have been selected and evaluated with regards to well-to-wheel energy expended, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and regulated (air pollutant) emissions. The vehicles included in the evaluation are passenger cars, light-duty vehicles (LDVs), and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) for road-transport applications, and a short-range passenger vessel for maritime transport applications. The results show that, compared to conventional fuels, in both transport applications and for all vehicle classes, the use of compressed and liquefied natural gas has a 15–27% GHG emissions reduction effect per km travel. The effect becomes large, 81–211%, when compressed and liquefied renewable natural gas are used instead. The results are sensitive to the type and source of feedstock used, the type of vehicle engine, assumed methane leakage and methane slip, and the allocated energy and environmental digestate credits, in each pathway. In maritime applications, the use of liquefied natural gas and renewable natural gas instead of low sulfur marine fuels results in a 60–100% SOx and 90–96% PM emissions reduction. A 1% methane slip from a dedicated LNG passenger vessel results, on average, in 8.5% increase in net GHG emissions.     

Six years of CO2-based tax incentives for new passenger cars in The Netherlands: Impacts on purchasing behavior trends and CO2 effectiveness

There is growing evidence that consumers respond more effectively to upfront price signals, such as vehicle purchase taxes and feebate policies, and to tax incentives that are more salient than others, such as company car taxes graded by CO₂ emissions. This paper examines tax changes in The Netherlands, which are among the most stringent and most salient in Europe, and assesses the ex-post purchasing impacts and CO₂ effectiveness of six years of CO₂-based tax incentives for low-carbon cars in The Netherlands. Dutch tax incentives resulted in 13 g/km, or 11% lower average CO₂ emissions in 2013. The Netherlands has moved from the 12th position before the tax changes in 2007 to become Europe’s number one in terms of the lowest average new car CO₂ emissions and highest share of electric vehicles in 2013. Tax incentives for new cars sold between 2008 and 2013 have resulted in 4.6 million tons of potential lifetime CO₂ abatement at the cost of a drop in tax revenues of 30–50%. However, when corrected for the Dutch policy-induced increasing real-world fuel-economy shortfall and leakage of carbon reduction potential through vehicle export of low-carbon cars, only 3.5 million tons or 75% of the CO₂ reduction remains. CO₂-based tax incentives for company cars seem to have contributed the most to the observed turnaround in purchasing behavior towards lower CO₂-emitting passenger cars.     

Reducing CO2 emissions of conventional fuel cars by vehicle photovoltaic roofs

The European Union has adopted a range of policies aiming at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from road transport, including setting binding targets for tailpipe CO₂ emissions for new light-duty fleets. The legislative framework for implementing such targets allows taking into account the CO₂ savings from innovative technologies that cannot be adequately quantified by the standard test cycle CO₂ measurement. This paper presents a methodology to define the average productivity of vehicle-mounted photovoltaic roofs and to quantify the resulting CO₂ benefits for conventional combustion engine-powered passenger cars in the European Union. The method relies on the analysis of a large dataset of vehicles activity data, i.e. urban driving patterns acquired with GPS systems, combined with an assessment of the shading effect from physical obstacles and indoor parking. The results show that on average the vehicle photovoltaic roof receives 58% of the available solar radiation in real-world conditions, making it possible to reduce CO₂ emissions from passenger cars in a range from 1% to 3%, assuming a storage capacity of 20% of the 12 V battery dedicated to solar energy. This methodology can be applied to other vehicles types, such as light and heavy-duty, as well as to different powertrain configurations, such as hybrid and full electric.     

Real-world gaseous and particle emissions of a Bi-fuel gasoline/CNG Euro 6 passenger car

The objective of the present study is the assessment of the environmental impact of a bivalent (bi-fuel) vehicle, running either on gasoline or compressed natural gas (CNG). To that aim, a Euro 6 passenger car was tested under various real-world driving conditions. In order to cover the full range of conventional powertrains currently in the market, the tests were also repeated on a Euro 6 diesel passenger car. Both cars were driven in two routes, the first complying with the regulation limits and the second going beyond them. Carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particle number (PN) emissions were recorded using a Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS). Apart from the aggregated emission levels, in g/km, the exact emission location along the route was also assessed. Natural gas proved beneficial for CO and PN emissions, the level of which always remained below the respective legislation limits. On the other hand, under the dynamic driving conditions with gasoline, the relevant limits were exceeded. Cold start, occurring at the beginning of the urban part, and motorway driving were identified as major contributors to total emissions, especially in gasoline mode. However, the application of natural gas was associated with a penalty in NO_x emissions, which were significantly increased as compared to gasoline. Local peaks within the urban part were identified in CNG mode. In any case, the diesel vehicle was by far the highest NO_x emitter.     

Conventional,hybrid and electric vehicles for Australian driving conditions. Part 2: Life cycle CO2-e emissions

This paper is the second of a two part study which quantifies the economic and greenhouse performance of conventional, hybrid and fully electric passenger vehicles operating in Australian driving conditions. This second study focuses on the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Two vehicle sizes are considered, Class-B and Class-E, which bracket the large majority of passenger vehicles on Australian roads.Using vehicle simulation models developed in the first study, the trade-offs between the ability of increasingly electric powertrains in curtailing the tailpipe emissions and the corresponding rise in the embedded vehicle emissions have been evaluated. The sensitivity of the life cycle emissions to fuel, electricity and the change in the energy mix are all considered. In conjunction with the total cost of ownership calculated in the companion paper, this allows the cost of mitigating life cycle greenhouse gas emissions through electrification of passenger transport to be estimated under different scenarios. For Class-B vehicles, fully electric vehicles were found to have a higher total cost of ownership and higher life cycle emissions than an equivalent vehicle with an internal combustion engine. For Class-E vehicles, hybrids are found to be the most cost effective whilst also having lowest life cycle emissions under current conditions. Further, hybrid vehicles also exhibit little sensitivity in terms of greenhouse emissions and cost with large changes in system inputs.     

Air quality impacts of electric vehicle adoption in Texas

Widespread adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) may substantially reduce emissions of greenhouse gases while improving regional air quality and increasing energy security. However, outcomes depend heavily on the electricity generation process, power plant locations, and vehicle use decisions. This paper provides a clear methodology for predicting PEV emissions impacts by anticipating battery-charging decisions and power plant energy sources across Texas. Life-cycle impacts of vehicle production and use and Texans’ exposure to emissions are also computed and monetized. This study reveals to what extent PEVs are more environmentally friendly, for most pollutant species, than conventional passenger cars in Texas, after recognizing the emissions and energy impacts of battery provision and other manufacturing processes. Results indicate that PEVs on today’s grid can reduce GHGs, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO in urban areas, but generate significantly higher emissions of SO₂ than existing light-duty vehicles. Use of coal for electricity production is a primary concern for PEV growth, but the energy security benefits of electrified vehicle-miles endure. As conventional vehicle emissions rates improve, it appears that power grids must follow suit (by improving emissions technologies and/or shifting toward cleaner generation sources) to compete on an emissions-monetized basis with conventional vehicles in many locations. Moreover, while PEV pollution impacts may shift to more remote (power plant) locations, dense urban populations remain most strongly affected by local power plant emissions in many Texas locations.     

Lead emission rates from gasoline engines—a legislative and in‐use emission rate study of U.K. and U.S. to 1990

Concern for reduction in air‐borne lead emission from passenger cars is focussed on both the legislative and practical steps in reducing lead in gasoline. The historical trends and projections to 1990 of present U.S. and U.K. policies are examined in terms of a baseline passenger car lead emission rate, g.km^‐1. It is likely that should the U.K. adopt a lead‐free petrol the decrease in lead emissions will only partially parallel the present U.S. experience from a start‐up date typically post 1990. The U.S. gasoline pool philosophy has permitted lead levels in gasoline to remain high; a pitfall which the U.K./EEC should avoid.     

Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions

This study develops a car‐following model in which heavy vehicle behaviour is predicted separately from passenger car. Heavy vehicles have different characteristics and manoeuvrability compared with passenger cars. These differences could create problems in freeway operations and safety under congested traffic conditions (level of service E and F) particularly when there is high proportion of heavy vehicles. With increasing numbers of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, model estimates of the traffic flow could be degrades because existing car‐following models do not differentiate between these vehicles and passenger cars. This study highlighted some of the differences in car‐following behaviour of heavy vehicle and passenger drivers and developed a model considering heavy vehicles. In this model, the local linear model tree approach was used to incorporate human perceptual imperfections into a car‐following model. Three different real world data sets from a stretch of freeway in USA were used in this study. Two of them were used for the training and testing of the model, and one of them was used for evaluation purpose. The performance of the model was compared with a number of existing car‐following models. The results showed that the model, which considers the heavy vehicle type, could predict car‐following behaviour of drivers better than the existing models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Driving speeds in Europe for pollutant emissions estimation

The sensitivity of the pollutant emissions as regards the driving speed is demonstrated using emission functions currently available from the literature. An accurate and detailed knowledge of the actual driving speeds is then fundamental for emissions estimations and inventories. However, speed information is often limited and heterogeneous. Through a European synthesis, we examine the various means of investigations: surveys, vehicle instrumentation, traffic modelling, etc.The available statistics provide a high number of reference values for passenger cars and duty vehicles by broad categories and highlight the influence of numerous factors on speed: time period, city size and area, trips origin and destination and vehicle types. Speed estimations and ranges are proposed for the driving in urban areas, on rural roads and on motorways.The significant variations of the speed according to the time of the day, to the areas of a city, and the large dispersion for a given situation raise the question of using single average values. In fact, emissions estimation can be affected by 30% by the quality of the driving speed data.     

Eco-driving: An economic or ecologic driving style?

In this work the trade-off between economic, therefore fuel saving, and ecologic, pollutant emission reducing, driving is discussed. The term eco-driving is often used to refer to a vehicle operation that minimizes energy consumption. However, for eco-driving to be environmentally friendly not only fuel consumption but also pollutant emissions should be considered. In contrast to previous studies, this paper will discuss the advantages of eco-driving with respect to improvements in fuel consumption as well as pollutant gas emissions. Simulating a conventional passenger vehicle and applying numerical trajectory optimization methods best vehicle operation for a given trip is identified. With hardware-in-the-loop testing on an engine test bench the fuel and emissions are measured. An approach to integrate pollutant emission and dynamically choose the ecologically optimal gear is proposed.     

Integrated modeling of car/motorcycle ownership, type and usage for estimating energy consumption and emissions

Devising effective management strategies to relieve dependency on private vehicles, i.e. cars and motorcycles, depends on the ability to accurately and carefully examine the effects of corresponding strategies. Disaggregate choice models regarding the ownership, type and usage of cars and motorcycles are required to achieve this. Consequently, this study proposes integrated car and motorcycle models based on a large-scale questionnaire survey of Taiwanese owners of cars and motorcycles, respectively. Incorporating gas mileage and emission coefficients for different types of cars and motorcycles into the proposed models can enable the estimation and comparison of reductions in energy consumption and emissions under various management strategies. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed integrated models, scenarios involving 10% and 30% increases in gas prices are analyzed and compared. The results indicate that gas price elasticities of cars and motorcycles are low, ranging from 0.47 to 0.50 for cars and 0.11 for motorcycles. Additionally, a high ratio of discouraged car users shifting to use of motorcycles neutralizes the effects of increased gas price in reducing energy consumption and emissions. Pollution of CO and HC even slightly increased because motorcycles are much more polluting in terms of CO and HC. At last, the reductions of energy consumption and emissions under 10% and 30% increase (or decrease) in other manipulating variables are also estimated and compared. The countermeasures for reducing ownership and usage of cars and motorcycles are then recommended accordingly.     

A study on adjustment factors for U-turns in left-turn lanes at signalized intersections

U-turns are treated as left-turns in the current procedures for estimating saturation flow rates at signalized intersections. While U-turning vehicles are usually mixed with left-turning vehicles in inside or left-turn lanes and conflict with opposing through traffic as left-turning vehicles, the vehicle operating characteristics are different. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of U-turns on the traffic flow in left-turn lanes. Field data of 600 headways of left-turning passenger cars and 160 headways of U-turning passenger cars are recorded. The average headways of U-turning passenger cars are found to be significantly larger than those of left-turning passenger cars. The effects of U-turning vehicles depend upon the percent of U-turning vehicles in the left-turn lane, as well as the order of formation in the traffic stream. Adjustment factors for varying percents of U-turning vehicles in left-turn lanes are established.     

Increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles due to interruption of steady traffic flow

We assess the increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles driving at steady speed when forced to stop and accelerate from rest. Considering the example of a signalized pedestrian crossing on a two-way single-lane urban road, we use a complex line source method to calculate the total emissions produced by a specific number and mix of light petrol cars and diesel passenger buses and show that the total emissions during a red light is significantly higher than during the time when the light remains green. Replacing two cars with one bus increased the emissions by over an order of magnitude.