Development of a driving cycle for Colombo,Sri Lanka: an economical approach for developing countries

Financial constraints and lack of availability of traffic‐related information significantly hinder the development of driving cycles in developing countries. This paper proposes an economical, practical, accurate methodology for the development of driving cycles, including the development of a driving cycle for Colombo, Sri Lanka. The proposed methodology captures regional traffic and road conditions and selects a model that represents the collected data sample with minimum available traffic‐related information. Existing methods were modified for route selection by dividing routes into links using nodes or physical junctions to minimize the number of trips required for data collection. Speed–time data for respective links were used to reconstruct speed–time profiles of identified origin–destination pairs. The on‐board method was used for data collection, and the Markov chain theory was used to develop a transition probability matrix of state changes. An additional matrix was introduced to the existing method to improve model representativeness to the collected data sample. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of driving style in naturalistic highway traffic using maneuver transition probabilities

Accurately estimating driving styles is crucial to designing useful driver assistance systems and vehicle control systems for autonomous driving that match how people drive. This paper presents a novel way to identify driving style not in terms of the durations or frequencies of individual maneuver states, but rather the transition patterns between them to see how they are interrelated. Driving behavior in highway traffic was categorized into 12 maneuver states, based on which 144 (12 × 12) maneuver transition probabilities were obtained. A conditional likelihood maximization method was employed to extract typical maneuver transition patterns that could represent driving style strategies, from the 144 probabilities. Random forest algorithm was adopted to classify driving styles using the selected features. Results showed that transitions concerning five maneuver states – free driving, approaching, near following, constrained left and right lane changes – could be used to classify driving style reliably. Comparisons with traditional methods were presented and discussed in detail to show that transition probabilities between maneuvers were better at predicting driving style than traditional maneuver frequencies in behavioral analysis.     

Driving cycle prediction model based on bus route features

Bus fuel economy is deeply influenced by the driving cycles, which vary for different route conditions. Buses optimized for a standard driving cycle are not necessarily suitable for actual driving conditions, and, therefore, it is critical to predict the driving cycles based on the route conditions. To conveniently predict representative driving cycles of special bus routes, this paper proposed a prediction model based on bus route features, which supports bus optimization. The relations between 27 inter-station characteristics and bus fuel economy were analyzed. According to the analysis, five inter-station route characteristics were abstracted to represent the bus route features, and four inter-station driving characteristics were abstracted to represent the driving cycle features between bus stations. Inter-station driving characteristic equations were established based on the multiple linear regression, reflecting the linear relationships between the five inter-station route characteristics and the four inter-station driving characteristics. Using kinematic segment classification, a basic driving cycle database was established, including 4704 different transmission matrices. Based on the inter-station driving characteristic equations and the basic driving cycle database, the driving cycle prediction model was developed, generating drive cycles by the iterative Markov chain for the assigned bus lines. The model was finally validated by more than 2 years of acquired data. The experimental results show that the predicted driving cycle is consistent with the historical average velocity profile, and the prediction similarity is 78.69%. The proposed model can be an effective way for the driving cycle prediction of bus routes.     

A robust,data-driven methodology for real-world driving cycle development

This paper develops a robust, data-driven Markov Chain method to capture real-world behaviour in a driving cycle without deconstructing the raw velocity–time sequence. The accuracy of the driving cycles developed using this method was assessed on nine metrics as a function of the number of velocity states, driving cycle length and number of Markov repetitions. The road grade was introduced using vehicle specific power and a velocity penalty. The method was demonstrated on a corpus of 1180 km from a trial of electric scooters. The accuracies of the candidate driving cycles depended most strongly on the number of Markov repetitions. The best driving cycle used 135 velocity modes, was 500 s and captured the corpus behaviour to within 5% after 1,000,000 Markov repetitions. In general, the best driving cycle reproduced the corpus behaviour better when road grade was included.     

Observing individual dynamic choices of activity chains from location-based crowdsourced data

The existing efforts on studying human mobility and activity using location-based crowdsourced data mainly focus on obtaining the activity chain pattern in a region at an aggregate level. To observe individual dynamic choices of activity chains, this paper presents a data-driven approach to estimating individual-specific activity chain set and corresponding choice probabilities for a given person over a 24-h period using crowdsourced data from location-based service apps. We detect an individual-specific stochastic activity set using a contextual-parcel data analysis. Based on the time geography theory, we refine a space-time bicone concept to construct an activity-travel space-time-state network from the stochastic activity set. These space-time bicone constraints define a set of potential activity choices to reduce the search space of activity location and duration choices. We construct an activity state transition graph from the space-time-state network and calculate a Markov matrix for activity choice probabilities. Furthermore, we calculate the probabilities of activity chain choices using the Markov matrix. We also visualize individual-specific activity chain set in a space-time-state network to show the dynamic choices of individual daily mobility and activity. We demonstrate the proposed approach through conducting numerical analyses using crowdsourced data from location-based service apps - Foursquare and Twitter to construct individual-specific activity choice sets and corresponding choice probabilities.     

A driving cycle detection approach using map service API

Following advancements in smartphone and portable global positioning system (GPS) data collection, wearable GPS data have realized extensive use in transportation surveys and studies. The task of detecting driving cycles (driving or car-mode trajectory segments) from wearable GPS data has been the subject of much research. Specifically, distinguishing driving cycles from other motorized trips (such as taking a bus) is the main research problem in this paper. Many mode detection methods only focus on raw GPS speed data while some studies apply additional information, such as geographic information system (GIS) data, to obtain better detection performance. Procuring and maintaining dedicated road GIS data are costly and not trivial, whereas the technical maturity and broad use of map service application program interface (API) queries offers opportunities for mode detection tasks. The proposed driving cycle detection method takes advantage of map service APIs to obtain high-quality car-mode API route information and uses a trajectory segmentation algorithm to find the best-matched API route. The car-mode API route data combined with the actual route information, including the actual mode information, are used to train a logistic regression machine learning model, which estimates car modes and non-car modes with probability rates. The experimental results show promise for the proposed method’s ability to detect vehicle mode accurately.     

Development of a representative urban driving cycle construction methodology for electric vehicles: A case study in Xi’an

This paper develops a systematic and practical construction methodology of a representative urban driving cycle for electric vehicles, taking Xi’an as a case study. The methodology tackles four major tasks: test route selection, vehicle operation data collection, data processing, and driving cycle construction. A qualitative and quantitative comprehensive analysis method is proposed based on a sampling survey and an analytic hierarchy process to design test routes. A hybrid method using a chase car and on-board measurement techniques is employed to collect data. For data processing, the principal component analysis algorithm is used to reduce the dimensions of motion characteristic parameters, and the K-means and support vector machine hybrid algorithm is used to classify the driving segments. The proposed driving cycle construction method is based on the Markov and Monte Carlo simulation method. In this study, relative error, performance value, and speed-acceleration probability distribution are used as decision criteria for selecting the most representative driving cycle. Finally, characteristic parameters, driving range, and energy consumption are compared under different driving cycles.     

Development of simulated driving cycles for light,medium, and heavy duty trucks: Case of the Toronto Waterfront Area

Driving cycles are an important input for state-of-the-art vehicle emission models. Development of a driving cycle requires second-by-second vehicle speed for a representative set of vehicles. Current standard driving cycles cannot reflect or forecast changes in traffic conditions. This paper introduces a method to develop representative driving cycles using simulated data from a calibrated microscopic traffic simulation model of the Toronto Waterfront Area. The simulation model is calibrated to reflect road counts, link speeds, and accelerations using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The simulation is validated by comparing simulated vs. observed passenger freeway cycles. The simulation method is applied to develop AM peak hour driving cycles for light, medium and heavy duty trucks. The demonstration reveals differences in speed, acceleration, and driver aggressiveness between driving cycles for different vehicle types. These driving cycles are compared against a range of available driving cycles, showing different traffic conditions and driving behaviors, and suggesting a need for city-specific driving cycles. Emissions from the simulated driving cycles are also compared with EPA’s Heavy Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule showing higher emission factors for the Toronto Waterfront cycles.     

A new approach for modeling of Fundamental Diagrams

According to the intra-vehicle interaction, a traffic flow can generally be divided into three homogeneous states (1) that of free driving, (2) that of bunched driving, and (3) that of standing. The parameter describing the state of free driving is the desired speed, for the state of bunching it is the intra-vehicle gaps (time headway) within the convoy and the mean speed of the convoy, and for the state of standing it is the maximum jam density. These are the most essential parameters which do not depend on the actual traffic situation.This paper introduces a new model which considers the Fundamental Diagram (equilibrium speed–flow–density relationship) as a function of the homogeneous states. All traffic situations in reality can be considered as combinations of the homogeneous states and therefore can be described by the essential parameters mentioned above. The non-congested (fluid) traffic is a combination (superposition) of the states of free driving and bunched driving, the congested (jam, stop, and go) traffic is a combination of the states of bunched driving (go) and standing (stop). The contribution of the traffic states within the differently congested traffic situations can then be easily obtained from the queuing and probability theory. As a result, Fundamental Diagram in all equilibrium traffic situations is derived as simple functions of the essential parameters.According to the new model the capacity of freeways and rural highways can be determined by measuring the essential parameters. This is much easier than measuring the capacity directly.Furthermore, the probabilities of the various traffic states can be obtained from the new model. This leads to new possibilities in real-time controlling and telematics.The new model is verified by comprehensive measurements carried out on freeways and rural highways in Germany.     

Bayesian inference of channelized section spillover via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

Channelized section spillover (CSS) is usually referred to the phenomenon of a traffic flow being blocked upstream and not being able to enter the downstream channelized section. CSS leads to extra delays, longer queues, and a biased detection of the flow rate. An estimation of CSS, including its occurrence and duration, is helpful for analysis of the state of traffic flow, as a basis for traffic evaluation and management. This has not been studied or reported in prior literature. A Bayesian model is developed through this research to estimate CSS, with its occurrence and duration formulated as a posterior distribution of given travel time and flow rate data. Basic properties of CSS are discussed initially, followed by a macroscopic model that explicitly models the CSS and encapsulates first-in-first-out (FIFO) behavior at an upstream section, with a goal of generating the prior distribution of CSS duration. Posterior distribution is then constructed using the detected flow rate and travel time vehicles samples. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method is used to solve this Bayesian model. The proposed model is implemented and tested in a channelized intersection and its modeling results are compared with Vissim simulation outputs, which demonstrated satisfactory results.     

Effects on driving behavior of congestion information and of scale of in-vehicle navigation systems

The purpose of this research was to compare the usage of a traditional paper map and electronic route maps during driving, and to consider the effects of congestion information and map scale sizes on driving performance, workload and subjective feelings. Experiments were conducted in desktop virtual driving environments with a 17-in. color monitor simulating driving environments and a 14-in. color monitor showing different kinds of navigation systems. A total of 20 undergraduate students of National Tsing Hua University were paid to participate in the Experiment I. The criteria for driving performance were trip duration, driving speed and number of navigation errors. Heart rate was measured as an index for workload. The 5-point Likert-type questionnaire was used to reflect the perceived nervousness, fatigue and task difficulty. Results indicated that the performance difference between a paper map and electronic route maps depended on the design characteristics of electronic route maps. Comparisons among four electronic maps revealed two significant main effects of congestion information and scale sizes on trip duration. Besides, it seemed that the availability of congestion information was useful for reducing navigation errors. Neither statistically significant main effects nor interaction was found on subjective feelings and driving speed. Another 18 subjects were used in the Experiment II to determine the optimum map scale size. Finally, the implications of the findings may provide suggestions on designing safer and more efficient in-vehicle navigation systems.     

Driving cycles that reproduce driving patterns,energy consumptions and tailpipe emissions

This study presents the Energy Based Micro-trip (EBMT) method, which is a new method to construct driving cycles that represent local driving patterns and reproduce the real energy consumption and tailpipe emissions from vehicles in a given region. It uses data of specific energy consumption, speed, and percentage of idling time as criteria of acceptable representativeness. To study the performance of the EBMT, we used a database of speed, fuel consumption, and tailpipe emissions (CO₂, CO, and NO_x), which was obtained monitoring at 1 Hz, the operation of 15 heavy-duty vehicles when they operated within different traffic conditions, during eight months. The speed vs. time data contained in this database defined the local driving pattern, which was described by 19 characteristic parameters (CPs). Using this database, we ran the EBMT and described the resulting driving cycle by 19 characteristics parameters (CPs*). The relative differences between CPs and CPs* quantified how close the obtained driving cycle represented the driving pattern. To observe tendencies of our results, we repeated the process 1000 times and reported the average relative difference (ARD) and the interquartile range (IQR) of those differences for each CP.. We repeated the process for the case of a traditional Micro-trip method and compared to previous results. The driving cycles constructed by the EBMT method showed the lowest values of ARDs and IQRs, meaning that it produces driving cycles with the highest representativeness of the driving patterns, and the best reproduction of energy consumption, and tailpipe emissions.     

A Framework for Developing Driving Cycles with On‐Road Driving Data

Abstract

This paper attempts to propose a framework on driving cycle development based on a thorough review of 101 transient driving cycles. A comparison of the driving cycles highlighted that Asian driving is the slowest but most aggressive while European driving is the fastest and smoothest. Further review of the cycle development methodologies identified three major elements for developing a driving cycle; test route selection, data collection and cycle construction methods. A framework was eventually proposed based on these findings and recommendations from this review. First, traffic activity patterns and quantitative statistics should be considered in determining the test routes. Speed data can be collected by using chase car method, on‐board measurement techniques or their hybrid. As for the construction of driving cycle, the matching approach has been more commonly used. It is recommended that the tendency of zero change in acceleration, which has been commonly ignored in the literature, and the application of succession probability at second‐by‐second level should be further explored. A fifth mode, creeping, is also recommended for modal analysis for characterizing urban congested driving conditions.     

Development of driving cycles for electric vehicles in the context of the city of Florence

Strong efforts are spent in automotive engineering for the creation of so called Driving Cycles (DCs). Vehicle DC development has been a topic under research over the last thirty years, since it is a key activity both from an authority and from an industrial research point of view. Considering the innovative characteristics of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and their diffusion on certain contexts (e.g. city centers), the demand for tailored cycles arises. A proposal for driving data analysis and synthesis has been developed through the review and the selection of known literature experiences, having as a goal the application on a EVs focused case study. The measurement campaign has been conducted in the city of Florence, which includes limited traffic areas accessible to EVs. A fleet of EVs has been monitored through a non-invasive data logging system. After data acquisition, time-speed data series have been processed for filtering and grouping. The main product of the activity is a set of DCs obtained by pseudo-randomized selection of original data. The similarity of synthetic DCs to acquired data has been verified through the validation of cycle parameters. Finally, the new DCs and a selection of existing ones are compared on the basis of relevant kinematic parameters and expected energy consumption. The method followed for the creation of DCs has been implemented in a software package. It can be used to generate cycles and, under certain boundary conditions, to get a filtered access to the measured data and provide integration within simulation environment.     

Analysis of volatility in driving regimes extracted from basic safety messages transmitted between connected vehicles

Driving volatility captures the extent of speed variations when a vehicle is being driven. Extreme longitudinal variations signify hard acceleration or braking. Warnings and alerts given to drivers can reduce such volatility potentially improving safety, energy use, and emissions. This study develops a fundamental understanding of instantaneous driving decisions, needed for hazard anticipation and notification systems, and distinguishes normal from anomalous driving. In this study, driving task is divided into distinct yet unobserved regimes. The research issue is to characterize and quantify these regimes in typical driving cycles and the associated volatility of each regime, explore when the regimes change and the key correlates associated with each regime. Using Basic Safety Message (BSM) data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, two- and three-regime Dynamic Markov switching models are estimated for several trips undertaken on various roadway types. While thousands of instrumented vehicles with vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication systems are being tested, nearly 1.4 million records of BSMs, from 184 trips undertaken by 71 instrumented vehicles are analyzed in this study. Then even more detailed analysis of 43 randomly chosen trips (N = 714,340 BSM records) that were undertaken on various roadway types is conducted. The results indicate that acceleration and deceleration are two distinct regimes, and as compared to acceleration, drivers decelerate at higher rates, and braking is significantly more volatile than acceleration. Different correlations of the two regimes with instantaneous driving contexts are explored. With a more generic three-regime model specification, the results reveal high-rate acceleration, high-rate deceleration, and cruise/constant as the three distinct regimes that characterize a typical driving cycle. Moreover, given in a high-rate regime, drivers’ on-average tend to decelerate at a higher rate than their rate of acceleration. Importantly, compared to cruise/constant regime, drivers’ instantaneous driving decisions are more volatile both in “high-rate” acceleration as well as “high-rate” deceleration regime. The study contributes to analyzing volatility in short-term driving decisions, and how changes in driving regimes can be mapped to a combination of local traffic states surrounding the vehicle.     

Customizing driving cycles to support vehicle purchase and use decisions: Fuel economy estimation for alternative fuel vehicle users

Wider deployment of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can help with increasing energy security and transitioning to clean vehicles. Ideally, adopters of AFVs are able to maintain the same level of mobility as users of conventional vehicles while reducing energy use and emissions. Greater knowledge of AFV benefits can support consumers’ vehicle purchase and use choices. The Environmental Protection Agency’s fuel economy ratings are a key source of potential benefits of using AFVs. However, the ratings are based on pre-designed and fixed driving cycles applied in laboratory conditions, neglecting the attributes of drivers and vehicle types. While the EPA ratings using pre-designed and fixed driving cycles may be unbiased they are not necessarily precise, owning to large variations in real-life driving. Thus, to better predict fuel economy for individual consumers targeting specific types of vehicles, it is important to find driving cycles that can better represent consumers’ real-world driving practices instead of using pre-designed standard driving cycles. This paper presents a methodology for customizing driving cycles to provide convincing fuel economy predictions that are based on drivers’ characteristics and contemporary real-world driving, along with validation efforts. The methodology takes into account current micro-driving practices in terms of maintaining speed, acceleration, braking, idling, etc., on trips. Specifically, using a large-scale driving data collected by in-vehicle Global Positioning System as part of a travel survey, a micro-trips (building block) library for California drivers is created using 54 million seconds of vehicle trajectories on more than 60,000 trips, made by 3000 drivers. To generate customized driving cycles, a new tool, known as Case Based System for Driving Cycle Design, is developed. These customized cycles can predict fuel economy more precisely for conventional vehicles vis-à-vis AFVs. This is based on a consumer’s similarity in terms of their own and geographical characteristics, with a sample of micro-trips from the case library. The AFV driving cycles, created from real-world driving data, show significant differences from conventional driving cycles currently in use. This further highlights the need to enhance current fuel economy estimations by using customized driving cycles, helping consumers make more informed vehicle purchase and use decisions.     

Data-driven optimization of railway maintenance for track geometry

Railway big data technologies are transforming the existing track inspection and maintenance policy deployed for railroads in North America. This paper develops a data-driven condition-based policy for the inspection and maintenance of track geometry. Both preventive maintenance and spot corrective maintenance are taken into account in the investigation of a 33-month inspection dataset that contains a variety of geometry measurements for every foot of track. First, this study separates the data based on the time interval of the inspection run, calculates the aggregate track quality index (TQI) for each track section, and predicts the track spot geo-defect occurrence probability using random forests. Then, a Markov chain is built to model aggregated track deterioration, and the spot geo-defects are modeled by a Bernoulli process. Finally, a Markov decision process (MDP) is developed for track maintenance decision making, and it is optimized by using a value iteration algorithm. Compared with the existing maintenance policy using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the maintenance policy developed in this paper results in an approximately 10% savings in the total maintenance costs for every 1 mile of track.     

Real world vehicle emissions: Their correlation with driving parameters

Vehicular population in developing countries is expected to proliferate in the coming decade, centred on Tier II and Tier III cities rather than large metropolis. WLTP is being introduced as a global instrument for emission regulation to reduce gap between standard test procedures and actual road conditions. This work aims at quantifying and discernment of the gap between WLTC and real-world conditions in an urban city in a developing country on the basis of driving cycle parameters and simulated emissions for gasoline fuelled light passenger cars. Real world driving patterns were recorded on different routes and varying traffic conditions using car-chasing technique integrated with GPS monitoring and speed sensors. Real-world driving patterns and ambient conditions were used to simulate emissions using International Vehicle Emissions model for average rate (g/km) and Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model for instantaneous emission (g/s) analysis. Cycle parameters were mathematically calculated to compare WLTC and road trips. The analyses revealed a large gap between WLTC and road conditions. CO emissions were predicted to be 155% higher than WLTC and HC and NOx emissions were estimated to be 63% and 64% higher respectively. These gaps were correlated to different driving cycle parameters. It was observed that road driving occurs at lower average speeds with higher frequency and magnitudes of accelerations. The positive kinetic energy required by road cycles, was 100% higher than WLTC and the Relative Positive Acceleration (RPA) demanded by road cycles, was found to be 60% higher in real-world driving patterns and thereby contribute to higher emissions.     

Electric vehicles’ energy consumption estimation with real driving condition data

The use of electric vehicles (EVs) is viewed as an attractive option to reduce CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption resulted from transport sector, but the popularization of EVs has been hindered by the cruising range limitation and the charging process inconvenience. Energy consumption characteristics analysis is the important foundation to study charging infrastructures locating, eco-driving behavior and energy saving route planning, which are helpful to extend EVs’ cruising range. From a physical and statistical view, this paper aims to develop a systematic energy consumption estimation approach suitable for EV actual driving cycles. First, by employing the real second-by-second driving condition data collected on typical urban travel routes, the energy consumption characteristics analysis is carried out specific to the microscopic driving parameters (instantaneous speed and acceleration) and battery state of charge (SOC). Then, based on comprehensive consideration of the mechanical dynamics characteristics and electric machine system of the EVs, a set of energy consumption rate estimation models are established under different operation modes from a statistical perspective. Finally, the performance of proposed model is fully evaluated by comparing with a conventional energy consumption estimation method. The results show that the proposed modeling approach represents a significant accuracy improvement in the estimation of real-world energy consumption. Specifically, the model precision increases by 25.25% in decelerating mode compared to the conventional model, while slight improvement in accelerating and cruising mode with desirable goodness of fit.     

Methodology for kinematic cycle characterization of vehicles with fixed routes in urban areas

This paper analyses the driving cycles of a fleet of vehicles with predetermined urban itineraries. Most driving cycles developed for such type of vehicles do not properly address variability among itineraries. Here we develop a polygonal driving cycle that assesses each group of related routes, based on microscopic parameters. It measures the kinematic cycles of the routes traveled by the vehicle fleet, segments cycles into micro-cycles, and characterizes their properties, groups them into clusters with homogeneous kinematic characteristics within their specific micro-cycles, and constructs a standard cycle for each cluster. The process is used to study public bus operations in Madrid.