A framework to evaluate policy options for supporting electric vehicles in urban freight transport

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered as a feasible alternative to traditional vehicles. Few studies have addressed the impacts of policies supporting EVs in urban freight transport. To cast light on this topic, we established a framework combining an optimization model with economic analysis to determine the optimal behavior of an individual delivery service provider company and social impacts (e.g., externalities and welfare) in response to policies designed to support EVs, such as purchase subsidy, limited access (zone fee) to congestion/low-emission zones with exemptions for EVs, and vehicle taxes with exemptions for EVs. Numerical experiments showed that the zone fee can increase the company’s total logistics costs but improve the social welfare. It greatly reduced the external cost inside the congestion/low-emission zone with a high population, dense pollution, and heavy traffic. The vehicle taxes and subsidy were found to have the same influence on the company and society, although they have different effects with low tax/subsidy rates because their different effects on vehicle routing plans. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis. Local factors at the company and city levels (e.g., types of vehicle and transport network) are also important to designing efficient policies for urban logistics that support EVs.     

Evaluating policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from private transportation

This paper proposes a model system to forecast household greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from private transportation. The proposed model combines an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model with MOVES 2014. Four modeling components are calibrated and applied to the calculation of GHGEs: vehicle quantity, vehicle type and vintage, miles traveled, and rates of GHGEs. The model is applied to the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area. Three tax schemes are evaluated: vehicle ownership tax, purchase tax and fuel tax. We calculate that the average GHGEs per vehicle is 5.15 tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO₂E) gases. Our results show that: (a) a fuel tax is the most effective way to reduce vehicle GHGEs, especially for households with fewer vehicles; (b) a purchase tax reduces vehicle GHGEs mainly by decreasing vehicle quantity for households with more vehicles; and (c) an ownership tax reduces vehicle GHGEs by decreasing both vehicle quantity and miles traveled.     

Residential relocations and changes in vehicle ownership

While the relationship between automobile ownership and the built environment is well established, less is known about how household relocations—specifically, moves between urban and suburban geographies—affect the likelihood of owning an automobile. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a refined neighborhood typology, I examine the relationship between inter-geography moves and transitions into and out of carlessness. Results suggest that among low-income households, urban-to-suburban movers have an increased likelihood of becoming car owners; those moving in the “opposite” direction—from suburban to urban neighborhoods—show a high propensity to transition into carlessness. Patterns among higher-income households, while similar, are more pronounced. In particular, higher-income carless households that make urban-to-suburban moves are far more likely to become car owners than their low-income counterparts. This highlights the ease with which higher-income households adjust their car ownership levels to suit their post-move neighborhoods. Higher-income suburban-to-urban movers are also more likely to transition into carlessness than low-income households. Importantly, however, only households at the bottom end of the “higher income” distribution have an increased propensity to become carless; suburban-to-urban movers with more financial resources maintain vehicle ownership rates similar to households that remain in the suburbs.

     

Regulating CO2 emissions of transportation in Europe: A CGE-analysis using market-based instruments

This paper analyzes the use of market-based emission regulation instruments to address the carbon dioxide emissions of transportation. Simulations with a static multi-region computable general equilibrium model show that including transportation into the European emission trading system is superior to a closed emission trading system for transportation or a tax-based approach. Furthermore, we show that exempting transportation from emission regulation is the most favorable approach in terms of welfare. This counterintuitive result is due to a large tax-interaction effect caused by high pre-existing fuel taxes in the transport sector.     

Consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles: A discrete choice analysis

This paper analyzes the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles using German stated preference discrete choice data. By applying a mixed logit model, we find that the most sensitive group for the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles embraces younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and undertake numerous urban trips. Moreover, many households are willing to pay considerable amounts for greater fuel economy and emission reduction, improved driving range and charging infrastructure, as well as for enjoying vehicle tax exemptions and free parking or bus lane access. The scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market. Finally, an increase in the battery electric vehicles’ range to a level comparable with all other vehicles has the same impact as a multiple measures policy intervention package.     

Assessing the importance of transportation activity data for urban emission inventories

The aim of this research is the implementation of a GPS-based modelling approach for improving the characterization of vehicle speed spatial variation within urban areas, and a comparison of the resulting emissions with a widely used approach to emission inventory compiling. The ultimate goal of this study is to evaluate and understand the importance of activity data for improving the road transport emission inventory in urban areas. For this purpose, three numerical tools, namely, (i) the microsimulation traffic model (VISSIM); (ii) the mesoscopic emissions model (TREM); and (iii) the air quality model (URBAIR), were linked and applied to a medium-sized European city (Aveiro, Portugal). As an alternative, traffic emissions based on a widely used approach are calculated by assuming a vehicle speed value according to driving mode. The detailed GPS-based modelling approach results in lower total road traffic emissions for the urban area (7.9, 5.4, 4.6 and 3.2% of the total PM10, NO_x, CO and VOC daily emissions, respectively). Moreover, an important variation of emissions was observed for all pollutants when analysing the magnitude of the 5th and 95th percentile emission values for the entire urban area, ranging from −15 to 49% for CO, −14 to 31% for VOC, −19 to 46% for NO_x and −22 to 52% for PM10. The proposed GPS-based approach reveals the benefits of addressing the spatial and temporal variability of the vehicle speed within urban areas in comparison with vehicle speed data aggregated by a driving mode, demonstrating its usefulness in quantifying and reducing the uncertainty of road transport inventories.     

A welfare cost assessment of various policy measures to reduce pollutant emissions from passenger road vehicles

Policy options to reduce passenger transport emissions in Europe are simulated with the EUCARS model. The EUCARS welfare analysis includes changes in consumer surplus, congestion and tax revenues. Simulations also address consumer myopia, i.e., the underestimation of fuel costs by car buyers. The best policy mix to reduce CO₂ consists of fuel taxes that are combined with differentiated purchase taxes to correct for the assumed myopia. This combination could reduce CO₂ emissions of over 25% without reducing contemporaneous well-being. For the reduction of conventional emissions, an equivalent best mix includes an emissions-based kilometre tax combined with a purchase feebate. This mix allows a 60% reduction in toxic emissions without any noticeable welfare reduction. The overall superiority of these two mixes compared to alternative choices is higher when the evaluation includes a broad group of externalities, a premium on public funds, and positive feedbacks across emissions categories. Local traffic management measures are important zero-cost complements for an overall emissions strategy.     

How much should gasoline be taxed when electric vehicles conquer the market? An analysis of the mismatch between efficient and existing gasoline taxes under emerging electric mobility

The taxation of gasoline is characterized by large variability across countries and recent research has analyzed existing gasoline tax levels from an economic efficiency point of view focusing on conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Most studies find that existing fuel tax rates do not coincide with economically efficient levels. As long as policymakers do not take action to reduce the resulting efficiency gap, there will be an ongoing welfare loss to the economy. However, the composition of passenger car fleets will probably be subject to fundamental changes in the (near) future due to the emergence of electric mobility. This raises the question of whether the mismatch between current and efficient fuel taxation will persist, shrink, or even exacerbate under emerging electric mobility. This paper aims at answering this question by determining the structure and level of optimal gasoline taxes in the presence of electric vehicles (EVs). First, the optimal (nationwide) gasoline tax is analytically derived employing a general equilibrium approach. It is shown that differences in traffic related marginal external costs among fuel powered cars and EVs affect the corrective Pigouvian component of the optimal gasoline tax while a differential tax treatment influences the fiscal rational of the tax. Second, the model is applied to Germany using differentiated data on e.g. external costs and behavioral responses. Under a wide range of scenarios, the present analyses indicate a strong relationship between optimal gasoline taxes and electric mobility, calling for a downward adjustment of efficient gasoline taxes. The effect is mainly driven by financial incentives for purchasing and using EVs. Since fuel is likely to be undertaxed in many countries, the emergence of electric mobility will therefore close the gap between gasoline taxes in place and economically efficient taxes. On the other side, it will increase the efficiency gap in those countries where gasoline is overtaxed. This also has important implications for policy concerned with environmental objectives. Pushing electric mobility seriously and at the same time taxing gasoline efficiently could actually prevent sufficient CO₂ emission savings. However, at least in the case of Germany, even a downward adjusted optimal gasoline tax under electric mobility is likely to be higher than the current (non-optimal) tax.     

Donor states and donee states: investigating geographic redistribution of the US federal-aid highway program 1974–2008

In 2009, the US government spent more than $42 billion on the federal-aid highway program. Most of this money was raised from motor vehicle taxes, whose proceeds are deposited in the highway trust fund. Federal motor vehicle user taxes flow into the fund and aid expenditures flow out from it to build and maintain highways and other transportation infrastructure. With so much money at stake it should be no surprise that expenditure decisions are the subject of intense political debate. Chief among these debates is the conflict between donor states, whose residents pay more in highway user taxes than the state receives in federal highway aid and donee states, whose residents pay less in highway user taxes than the state receives in highway aid. While this geographic redistribution has been masked recently by infusions of general fund revenue into the trust fund, the debate nevertheless continues. This paper attempts to understand why some states are donors and others are donees by simultaneously testing four hypotheses about the geographic redistribution of federal highway dollars that relate to a state’s highway need, economic condition, level of urbanization, and representation on the key Congressional oversight committees. The analyses show that redistribution does not favor states with larger highway systems, more highway use, or lower median incomes, all of which are different indicators of need. Instead, states that are less urban and better represented on the four key Congressional committees generally benefit from redistribution. These findings indicate that the user tax revenues are not used in places where they are most needed. Thus they provide little empirical support for any compelling policy argument for continued geographic redistribution of federal highway user tax dollars.     

Modelling emission control taxes in port areas and port privatization levels in port competition and co-operation sub-games

Using a game theory approach, this paper analyses a situation in which the government imposes a certain emission tax on vessels and port operations for emission control in port areas. Two ports are considered: a purely private port and a landlord (partial public) port. These two ports are in Cournot or Bertrand competition or cooperation with differentiated service. Our model outcomes lead to the following conclusions. First, the optimal private level of port 2 under Cournot and Bertrand competitions varies between fully private and highly public concerned port, while government will prefer a highly public concerned or close to highly public concerned port in the cooperation scenario. Second, government will have to make more and stricter efforts to enhance environmental protection in the situation of port cooperation (monopoly) than in the case of inter-port competition, and all the optimal emission tax should be always lower than the marginal emission damage. Third, port privatization has a non-monotonous effect on ports’ environmental damage in the inter-port competition scenarios and a monotonous decreasing effect in the cooperation scenario. Fourth, the total emission tax revenue is always higher than the overall environmental damage in the cooperative scenario, and it may or may not be able to cover the whole environment damage in Cournot and Bertrand competitions. Finally, the government may face a trade-off among environmental protection, maximizing social welfare, satisfying individual motivation, when considering port cooperation (monopoly).     

A utility-theory travel demand model incorporating travel budgets

A model of traveler behavior is proposed which is consistent with the possibility that travelers expend average daily amounts of time and money on travel with stable regularities both among urban areas and over time in the same area. The model is founded on economic utility theory. It is designed to forecast: (1) the amount of total travel generated by types of households, (2) the division of travel among available modes, and (3) the relationship between the amounts of time and money allocated to travel expenditures. The qualitative properties of the model are shown to be consistent with economic principles. Specific theoretical results reveal that, in the simultaneous presence of constraints on both time and money, travel budgets are not strictly constant proportions of income and time available as they are in the cases of single constraints relevant to classes of travelers to whom time is scarce compared to money, or conversely. Constant expenditure proportions are shown to be linear approximations which are subject to empirical validation. The relevant economic principle is that expenditures can be considered fixed in the short run but become flexible in the long run when utility maximization is applied to the expenditures themselves and not just to their allocation. Empirical tests of the model using data from three urban areas are positive, but additional tests are called for. The most important output of the research is deemed to be the establishment of theoretical hypotheses which can be used in continuing tests of travel budgets.     

Optimization of grid bus transit systems with elastic demand

Current analytic models for optimizing urban bus transit systems tend to sacrifice geographic realism and detail in order to obtain their solutions. The models presented here shows how an optimization approach can be successful without oversimplifying spatial characteristics and demand patterns of urban areas and how a grid bus transit system in a heterogeneous urban environment with elastic demand is optimized. The demand distribution over the service region is discrete, which can realistically represent geographic variation. Optimal network characteristics (route and station spacings), operating headways and fare are found, which maximize the total operator profit and social welfare. Irregular service regions, many‐to‐many demand patterns, and vehicle capacity constraints are considered in a sequential optimization process. The numerical results show that at the optima the operator profit and social welfare functions are rather flat with respect to route spacing and headway, thus facilitating the tailoring of design variables to the actual street network and particular operating schedule without a substantial decrease in profit. The sensitivities of the design variables to some important exogenous factors are also presented.     

Beyond the journey to work

This paper analyses the Nationwide Personal Transportation Study (NPTS) surveys of 1977 and 1983–1984 that reveal a remarkable increase in nonwork travel. This growth occurred among all city size classes but was stronger for suburban residents. Also interesting is that the rate of increase in nonwork trips was higher in the peaks (especially in the morning peak) than in the off-peak period. Some, but not all, of these trips may be price-elastic and might be diverted by congestion pricing strategies. The nonwork trip growth is concentrated in the “family and personal” and the “social and recreational” categories. Although higher-income households make more trips than low-income households, the increase in nonwork travel is common to all income groups. The growth in nonwork travel does not appear to be closely associated with the growth in female employment or trips related to the children of working women. The most convincing explanation of the growth in nonwork travel is that the trip cost savings (less time and distance) experienced because of more efficient spatial settlement patterns have provided an incentive to undertake more trips. Another implication is that urban economic models and urban transport policies have overemphasized the journey to work, especially to the central business district (CBD).     

Social inclusivity through public transportation: a strategic approach to improve quality of life in developing countries

Welfare services such as healthcare and education are commonly recognised as determinants of physical quality of life indices during the early phases of development in the third world. In order to benefit from these services, it is important that the general public have the mobility means to access welfare provision centres. However, very low vehicle ownership under the conditions of low per‐capita incomes and large shares of population living in deep rural areas prevent the masses from accessing such services, thereby retarding the process of social development, which is reflected in the very poor physical quality of life indices in low‐income countries. Public transportation could offer a viable and affordable solution to this apparent ambivalence. It could permit mobility for poor masses in spite of low per‐capita vehicle ownership enabled by the national income levels. The present research demonstrates this strategic niche through an econometric examination of the evolution of the physical quality of life indices such as maternal mortality, infant mortality and literacy as against the healthcare, education and affordable mobility proxies in post‐independent Sri Lanka. The country, which was then referred to as Ceylon, is often cited as a rare example of achieving social inclusion and reduced marginalisation and thereby a high social welfare standing, in spite of relatively poor per‐capita income levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrol expenditure and redistributive effects of its taxation in Spain

The objective of this paper is to estimate a petrol expenditure function for Spain and to evaluate the redistributive effects of petrol taxation. We use micro data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey of 1990/91 and model petrol expenditure taking into account the effect that income changes may have on car ownership levels, as well as the differences that exist between reported expenditure and real consumption during the week of reference. Our results show the importance that household structure, place of residence and income have on petrol expenditure patterns. We are able to compute income elasticities of petrol expenditure, both conditional and unconditional on the level of car ownership. Non-conditional elasticities, while always very close to unit values, are lower for higher income households and for those living in rural areas or small cities. When car ownership levels are taken as fixed, the conditional elasticity obtained is around one half the value of the non-conditional ones. As regards the redistributive effects of petrol taxation, we observe that for the lowest income deciles the share of petrol expenditure increases with income, and thus the tax can be regarded as progressive. However, after a certain income level the tax proves to be regressive.     

On a pathway to de-carbonization – A comparison of new passenger car CO2 emission standards and taxation measures in the G20 countries

Considering the role of transport for a 1.5 Degree stabilization pathway and the importance of light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency within that, it is important to understand the key elements of a policy package to shape the energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet. This paper presents an analysis focusing on three types of policy measures: (1) CO₂ emission standards for new vehicles, (2) vehicle taxation directly and indirectly based on CO₂ emission levels, and (3) fuel taxation. The paper compares the policies in the G20 economies and estimates the financial impact of those policies using the example of a Ford Focus vehicle model. This analysis is a contribution to the assessment of the role of the transport sector in global decarbonisation efforts. The findings of this paper show that only an integrated approach of regulatory and fiscal policy measures can yield substantial efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet and can curb vehicle kilometres travelled by individual motorised transport. Using the illustrative example of one vehicle model, the case study analysis shows that isolated measures, e.g. fuel efficiency regulation without corresponding fuel and vehicle taxes only have minor CO₂ emission reduction effects and that policy measures need to be combined in order to achieve substantial emission reduction gains over time. The analysis shows that the highest level of impact is achieved by a combination regulatory and fiscal policies rather than only one policy even if this policy is more aggressive. When estimating the quantitative effect of fuel efficiency standards, vehicle and fuel tax, the analysis shows that substantial gains with regard to CO₂ emission are only achieved at a financial impact level above 500 Euros over a four year period.     

Rural mobility and mode choice: Evidence from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey

This article uses data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) to compare travel behavior in rural and urban areas of the U.S. As expected, the car is the overwhelmingly dominant mode of travel. Over 97% of rural households own at least one car vs. 92% of urban households; 91% of trips are made by car in rural areas vs. 86% in urban areas. Regardless of age, income, and race, almost everyone in rural areas relies on the private car for most travel needs. Mobility levels in rural areas are generally higher than in urban areas. That results from the more dispersed residences and activity sites in rural areas, which increase trip distances and force reliance on the car. Somewhat surprisingly, the rural elderly and poor are considerably more mobile than their urban counterparts, and their mobility deficit compared to the rural population average is strikingly less than for the urban elderly and poor compared to the urban average. Data limitations prevented a measurement of accessibility, however, and it seems likely that rural areas, by their very nature, are less accessible than urban areas, especially for the small percentage of car-less poor and elderly households.     

Vehicle type choice under the influence of a tax reform and rising fuel prices

Differentiated vehicle taxes are considered by many a useful tool for promoting environmentally friendly vehicles. Various structures have been implemented in several countries, e.g. Ireland, France, The Czech Republic, and Denmark. In many countries the tax reforms have been followed by a steep change in new vehicle purchases toward more diesel vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles. The paper analyses to what extent a vehicle tax reform similar to the Danish 2007 reform may explain changes in purchasing behaviour. The paper investigates the effects of a tax reform, fuel price changes, and technological development on vehicle type choice using a mixed logit model. The model allows a simulation of the effect of car price changes that resemble those induced by the tax reform. This effect is compared to the effects of fuel price changes and technology improvements. The simulations show that the effect of the tax reform on fuel efficiency is similar to the effect of rising fuel prices while the effect of technological development is much larger. The conclusion is that while the tax reform appeared in the same year as a large increase in fuel efficiency, it seems likely that it only explains a small part of the shift in fuel efficiency that occurred and that the main driver was the technological development.     

Asymmetry in transport fuel demand: Evidence from household level data

Models for gasoline demand for transportation activities generally assume that demand is perfectly reversible with respect to gasoline price (and income). The small literature which relaxes the reversibility assumption in gasoline demand argues technological fixation leads to this asymmetry and utilizes aggregate time-series model to find evidence in favour of asymmetry. In this research it is suggested that there could also be behavioural factors behind this asymmetric response, possibly due to the loss aversion nature of human beings as described in the prospect theory. For the first time, household level data was used to understand asymmetry in gasoline demand in response to changes in gasoline price and income. There was statistical evidence that gasoline price and income both can induce asymmetric changes in gasoline demand among households. Specifically, elasticity with respect to rising prices and falling income is larger than the elasticity with respect to falling prices and rising income respectively, which is consistent with loss aversion in gasoline purchase behaviour. There was also some evidence of heterogeneity in the asymmetric responses between urban and rural households. The results have implications for transport-related energy tax policies or subsidies, while the method can be applied directly for non-energy goods as well.     

Middle‐class Travel Patterns,Predispositions and Attitudes,and Present‐day Transport Policy in Bangkok,Thailand

Abstract

Middle‐class expansion and new consumption patterns have increasingly become an important focus of studies of the development and change in newly industrialized and middle‐income‐developing East and South East Asian countries. However, there is still a dearth of studies in the literature particularly focusing on middle‐class travel patterns, predispositions and transport policy preferences. Nor have the implications of these factors on current transport and land development policy been examined. The present exploratory study addresses this gap by examining three cases in Bangkok, Thailand, which in recent decades witnessed dramatic middle‐class expansion, an increase in private motor vehicle population, and spatial diffusion of middle‐class residences into lower‐density zones in the suburbs. By mainly employing a survey method of data‐gathering and quantitative research analysis, the paper discusses the following findings: (1) that middle‐class travel behaviour is characterized by a high dependence on private motor vehicle travel and ‘inward commuting’; (2) that middle‐class preferences for transport mode and attitudes about remedial policy options are generally protective of their members’ car‐dependence and ownership; and (3) that present policy measures of the Thai government on Bangkok transport perfectly fit and support exclusively middle‐ and upper‐class predispositions and stakes in mobility. These findings in a developing country city basically follow a similar profile to be found in middle‐class‐dominant transport patterns and urban form in a number of North American cities. This paper further argues that in a developing country city such as Bangkok, where marked social differentiation and the combined population of poor and low‐income classes still comprise almost half of the urban social landscape despite an expanding middle‐class, an adequate and good public transport system that also meets the former’s need for efficient mobility is an imperative.