Assessing network vulnerability of heavy rail systems with the impact of partial node failures

Much of the literature in recent years has examined the vulnerability of transportation networks. To identify appropriate and operational measures of nodal centrality using connectivity in the case of heavy rail systems, this paper presents a set of comprehensive measures in the form of a Degree of Nodal Connection (DNC) index. The DNC index facilitates a reevaluation of nodal criticality among distinct types of transfer stations in heavy rail networks that present a number of multiple lines between stations. Specifically, a new classification of transfer stations—mandatory transfer, non-mandatory transfer, and end transfer—and a new measure for linkages—link degree and total link degree—introduces the characteristics of heavy rail networks when we accurately expose the vulnerability of a node. The concept of partial node failure is also introduced and compare the results of complete node failure scenarios. Four local and global indicators of network vulnerability are derived from the DNC index to assess the vulnerability of major heavy rail networks in the United States. Results indicate that the proposed DNC indexes can inform decision makers or network planners as they explore and compare the resilience of multi-hubs and multi-line networks in a comprehensive but accurate manner regardless of their network sizes.

     

Enhancing the developmental impact of rail transit

A number of forces currently at work in the United States are fostering the rebirth of urban rail transportation. In order to maximize the beneficial economic and developmental impact of future rail investment, certain procedures and techniques must be employed in the planning, design, and implementation of rail systems. The paper offers a set of guidelines and principles for transportation and land use policy makers.     

Modelling the impact of rail fare increases

Rail fares in South-East England have been increasing in real terms for several years, and are expected to continue to do so. In this paper, the impact of such increases is examined in terms of the choices of mode of travel, home and job location, and residential migration. Forecasts are made using a model in which the population is partitioned into four sets according to whether they have changed home and/ or job over the forecast period. The model allocates population to homes and workers to jobs, and commuters to the three modes of travel considered. The impact of an increase of 25% in real fares over a five-year period is examined and a number of conclusions are drawn. The model shows that rail patronage will decline even if transport costs remain constant in real terms, because of decentralisation of jobs and rising car ownership. The overall long-term rail fare elasticity is found to be –0.7, but this is the mean of a wide range of values for different parts of the study area. People ceasing to commute by rail would divide almost equally between car and bus, the latter being used particularly to Central London. Those people who commute to London who are seeking new homes would tend to choose to live nearer London than they would have otherwise. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings in terms of the assumptions implied in the model.     

Assessing the employment agglomeration and social accessibility impacts of high speed rail in Eastern Australia

There is growing interest in establishing additional evidence, under the umbrella of the wider economy impacts of transport infrastructure projects, to support transport projects in general and public transport projects in particular that struggle to obtain benefit–cost ratios sufficient to gain the support of financial agencies. This paper focuses on one element of wider economy impacts, often referred to as effective economic (employment) density or employment agglomeration impacts, and another, less usually identified, social accessibility impact (SAI) which we refer to as effective social density, which in broad terms provide, correspondingly, evidence of the potential gains in work-related output (often referred to as productivity gains) and potential gains in non-work-related outputs. Both are associated with gains in individual and household benefit attributable to improved accessibility to services linked with populations and particular locations. The SAIs may capture some of the induced benefits in those jurisdictions where these are included routinely in benefit–cost analysis, and the methodology here is most appropriate to those settings where an existing calibrated demand curve may not be available. Using the proposed high speed rail (HSR) project between Sydney and Melbourne as the empirical setting, we identify economic agglomeration and social accessibility benefits for work and non-work related activity respectively. We find the former to be relatively small compared to the significant gains associated with non-work related travel activity, suggesting the greatest benefits associated with HSR, especially for those residents outside of the major metropolitan areas, will be non-work related travel activity.     

The impact of rail access on condominium prices in Hamburg

Using hedonic price functions, we study the influence of access to public railway stations on the prices of surrounding condominiums in Hamburg, Germany. The study examines the influence of rail infrastructure on residential property prices, not only of individual lines, but for the entire rail network of a metropolitan region. We test the stability of the coefficients for different sets of control variables. The study also estimates public-transit-induced increases in tax revenues due to real estate price increases for a study area outside the United States. We control for spatial dependence and numerous variables correlated with the proximity of railway stations and show that access to the public transit system of the city of Hamburg is to be rated with price increases of up to 4.6%. Such premiums for higher-income neighbourhoods and for subterranean stations tend to be higher. The premiums calculated are significantly lower than average price premiums reported in previous studies, which were mostly based on much fewer variables that rail access might be correlated to.     

The future relations between air and rail transport in an island country

This paper proposes a bi-level passenger transport market model taking into account competition between air and high-speed rail (HSR) in a domestic market. The paper discusses the characteristics of the relationship between market share and connectivity in domestic and international markets. The result suggests that because of the dominance of HSR in the domestic market, when connectivity between air and HSR is good, international passenger’s welfare can be improved. Finally, when considering profitability of the players, there is an incentive for airlines to cooperate with HSR, but there is no incentive for HSR to cooperate with airlines.     

A meta-analysis of the impact of rail projects on land and property values

The literature on land and property values demonstrates a great deal of variability in the estimated change in values arising from rail investments. This paper conducts a meta-analysis on empirical estimates from 23 studies (102 observations) that analysed the impact of rail on land/property value changes. Variation in the estimated impacts is calculated and discussed in relation to key dimensions of study-design characteristics. The results show that a number of factors produce significant variations in the estimates. These include the type of land use, the type of rail service, the rail system life cycle maturity, the distance to stations, the geographical location, accessibility to roads, methodological characteristics, as well as whether the impacted area is land or property. On the other hand, we observe that changes in purchase price and rent values due to rail projects are statistically similar to each other, that there is no evidence of change in values over time nor due to the location of land/property within the city, and that including property characteristics and neighbourhood type in the estimation model do not change values significantly. Publication bias tests are also performed and show that although researchers tend to report both positive and negative results, they tend to be biased towards statistically significant estimates.     

The impact of planned disruptions on rail passenger demand

Transportation - Disruptions to rail journeys are experienced by rail passengers on a daily basis throughout the world, with the impacts on passengers ranging from minimal to major. Such...     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

The impact of rail transit on land use: Evidence and a change of perspective

On the basis of available evidence we cannot clearly establish a causal relationship between rail transit and changes in land use and development patterns. At best, such changes would seem to occur only in the presence of other favorable factors, such as supportive local land use policies and development incentives, availability of developable land and a good investment climate. In any event, however, determining the precise extent of rail investment's effect on urban structure is less important than assessing the role it could play in an overall strategy for reaching larger urban goals.     

Privatisation and the quality of rail services

Using the concept of generalised costs to reflect quality in rail services, we consider the level of provision and quality of these services in the various forms they may take in a privatised environment within a model where we assume linear and separable demand and cost functions for analytical simplicity. Using the Pareto-efficient output and quality outcomes under a fully integrated system for reference (as well as those for a fully integrated profit-maximising monopolist) we show that if either bilateral monopoly or complementary monopoly emerge as a market structure the output of train services and their quality will generally fall. In the case of the emergence of both bilateral monopoly and complementary monopoly our analysis again suggests poor welfare outcomes. The implication that can be drawn from our analysis is that a regulator of a privatised rail system faces some severe problems if she is to attain the appropriate welfare targets.     

Light rail transit in the United States

In recent years interest in light rail transit has grown substantially in the United States. The concept of LRT is increasingly viewed as a possible answer to the search for a less costly rail transit technology that could reduce America's dependency on the private automobile and put the country on the road to a more secure, self-sufficient energy future. The paper reviews recent LRT developments in four American cities, two of which have undertaken to rehabilitate and upgrade their existing surface street railway systems, and the other two have embarked upon construction of entirely new light rail systems.     

Using ordered attitudinal indicators in a latent variable choice model: a study of the impact of security on rail travel behaviour

There is growing interest in the use of models that recognise the role of individuals’ attitudes and perceptions in choice behaviour. Rather than relying on simple linear approaches or a potentially bias-inducing deterministic approach based on incorporating stated attitudinal indicators directly in the choice model, researchers have recently recognised the latent nature of attitudes. The uptake of such latent attitude models in applied work has however been slow, while a number of overly simplistic assumptions are also commonly made. In this article, we present an application of jointly estimated attitudinal and choice models to a real-world transport study, looking at the role of latent attitudes in a rail travel context. Our results show the impact that concern with privacy, liberty and security, and distrust of business, technology and authority have on the desire for rail travel in the face of increased security measures, as well as for universal security checks. Alongside demonstrating the applicability of the model in applied work, we also address a number of theoretical issues. We first show the equivalence of two different normalisations discussed in the literature. Unlike many other latent attitude studies, we explicitly recognise the repeated choice nature of the data. Finally, the main methodological contribution comes in replacing the typically used continuous model for attitudinal response by an ordered logit structure which more correctly accounts for the ordinal nature of the indicators.     

The impact of urban rail transit on commercial property value: New evidence from Wuhan,China

The interaction between rail transit and the urban property market is a vital foundation for planning transit-based policy such as Value Capture and Transit Oriented Development (TOD). Yet only few studies have reported the impact of transit access on commercial property value. This paper presents empirical evidence from Wuhan, China, to enrich the knowledge in the subject area. Spatial autoregressive models were employed to estimate the commercial value capture, based on 676 observations along Wuhan’s metro rail line through the main business districts. Value appreciation was discovered within the 400 m radius of road network distance from Metro stations. The transit access premiums present as two tiers: 16.7% for the 0–100 m core area and approximately 8.0% within the 100–400 m radius. The result demonstrates the potential benefit of adopting value capture and optimising TOD planning to support sustainable urban rail transit investment. Amid rapid urbanisation in China, the evidence reported here could help better inform cities, across the developing world and beyond, of the benefits of adopting rail transit-based policy.     

CO2腐蚀影响因素研究

CO2对井下、地面设备及管道会产生不同程度的腐蚀作用,造成经济损失和环境污染。详细介绍了影响腐蚀速率的各种因素,包括环境因素、物理因素及材料因素,最后结合实际可知,CO2分压、温度、pH值、腐蚀膜特性、流速、合金情况是主要的腐蚀影响因素。     

Assessing the impact of the built environment on travel behavior: a case study of Buffalo,New York

Assessing the impact of characteristics of the built environment on travel behavior can yield valuable tools for land use and transportation planning. Of particular interest are planning models that can estimate the effects of ‘smart growth’ planning. In this paper, a post-processor method of quantifying and searching for relationships among many aspects of travel behavior and the built environment is developed and applied to the Buffalo, NY area. A wide scope of travel behavior is examined, and over 50 variables, many of which are based on high-detail data sources, are examined for potentially quantifying the built environment. Linear modeling is then used to relate travel behavior and the built environment, and the resulting models may be applied in a post-processor fashion to travel models to provide some measure of sensitivity to built environment modifications. The study’s findings demonstrate that mode choice is highly correlated to measures of the built environment, and that many of the principles of smart growth appear to be a valid way to encourage non-vehicle travel. Home-based VHT and VMT appear to be affected by the built environment to a lesser degree.     

Factors affecting the use of bus and rail services in a deregulated environment

In 1987, the NSW Government commenced deregulation of the long-distance bus industry in NSW. This immediately led to greater inter-modal competition and contestability within the context of changing passenger markets.This study utilises categorical data analysis methods to examine the emerging passenger markets of inter-modal competitors (bus and rail) and to assess the relative importance of socioeconomic and travel related variables which affect the use of bus and rail services along the high volume Sydney-Canberra and Sydney-North Coast corridors.Conclusions from the study indicate varied passenger markets within a relatively new contestable environment which are mode and corridor specific. Results are indicative of the need for competitors to develop marketing strategies conducive to the demands of the travelling public in order to enhance viability and commercial opportunities.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of rail station ridership determinants in the built environment

The development of new routes and stations, as well as changes in land use, can have significant impacts on public transit ridership. Thus, transport departments and governments should seek to determine the level and spatio-temporal dependency of these impacts with the aim of adjusting services or improving planning. However, existing studies primarily focus on predicting ridership, and pay relatively little attention to analyzing the determinants of ridership from temporal and spatial perspectives. Consequently, no comprehensive cognition of the spatio-temporal relationship between station ridership and the built environment can be obtained from previous models, which makes them unable to facilitate the optimization of transportation demands and services. To rectify this problem, we have employed a Bayesian negative binomial regression model to identify the significant impact factors associated with entry/exit ridership at different periods of the day. Based on this model, we formulated geographically weighted models to analyze the spatial dependency of these impacts over different periods. The spatio-temporal relationship between station ridership and the built environment was analyzed using data from Beijing. The results reveal that the temporal impacts of most ridership determinants are related to the passenger trip patterns. Furthermore, the spatial impacts correspond with the determinants’ spatial distribution, and the results give some implications on urban and transportation planning. This analysis gives a common analytical framework analyzing impacts of urban characteristics on ridership, and extending researches on how we capture the impacts of urban and other factors on ridership from a comprehensive perspective.