Climate change mitigation and co-benefits of feasible transport demand policies in Beijing

Urban car transportation is a cause of climate change but is also associated with additional burdens such as traffic congestion and air pollution. Studies of external costs and potential impacts of travel demand management help to define policy instruments that mitigate the damaging impact of transportation. Here, we analyze different externalities of car transportation in Beijing and show that social costs induced by motorized transportation are equivalent to about 7.5–15.0% of Beijing’s GDP. Congestion and air pollution contribute the most with climate change costs being the most uncertain. We show that a road charge could not only address congestion but also has environmental benefits. The paper investigates the role of demand elasticities and demonstrates that joint demand and supply-side policies provide considerable synergies.     

Productivity change in transport: a survey

Because of the importance of transport in promoting economic development, there has been a long‐standing interest in the performance of transport industries and in the conditions which are likely to promote productivity growth. Fundamental to any debate on the subject, though, is the need to advance a satisfactory account of production and a way of deciding when productive performance has changed. This paper points out that there are pitfalls in the common practice of using measures such as output per man‐hour as an indicator of productivity and argues that a thorough understanding of the relationships between inputs and outputs can proceed from a knowledge of the economic theory of production.

The paper describes the relevant theoretical concepts and then examines applications of that theory in transport industries. It transpires that there is a growing literature on the subject, demonstrating a worldwide and multimodal interest in developing more rigorous and satisfying ways of measuring and analysing productivity difference. The techniques employed range from the more complex models at the forefront of economic theory, to rudimentary methods which are, at best, capable of testing only the simplest types of hypotheses. Nevertheless, it is argued that these studies have achieved a remarkable degree of success in enhancing analysis.

There can be no doubt that techniques will undergo further developments. However, it is likely that the greatest successes will come about through improvements in data which will permit applications of more complex, but proven techniques of analysis in relatively neglected areas such as road and maritime transport.     

Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas

Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions.     

Optimization of transport investment and pricing policies: the role of transport pricing in network design

This paper investigates the role of transport pricing in network design and describes two facts about flow pattern in a transportation system. The first, illustrated by an example of Braess paradox, is that adding a new link to the network does not necessarily minimize the total travel time. The second is that introducing of appropriate toll pricing may reduce not only the total network time but also the travel time for each individual traveller. It follows with the investigations of different system objectives and different pricing policies (only toll pricing and distance‐based pricing are considered), and shows how they affect the system performance and flow pattern. Lastly, a systematic optimization process is proposed for integrated planning of transport network and pricing policies.     

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22 international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported here, the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system, where change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise fossil fuels. From a methodological perspective, the outcomes of the Delphi study provided a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system dynamics model.     

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.     

Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review

This paper seeks to develop a deeper understanding of the research on climate change mitigation in transport. We suggest that work to date has focused on the effects of improvements in transport technologies, changes in the price of transport, physical infrastructure provision, behavioural change and alternative institutional arrangements for governing transport systems. In terms of research methodologies, positivist and quantitative analysis prevails, although there are signs of experimentation with non-positivist epistemologies and participatory methods. These particular engagements with climate change mitigation reflect mutually reinforcing tendencies within and beyond the academic transport community. We first draw on a revised version of Thomas Kuhn’s philosophy of science to explore the path dependencies within transport studies, which are at least partly responsible for the predisposition towards quantitative modelling and technology, pricing and infrastructure oriented interventions in transport systems. We then employ the governmentality perspective to examine how transport academics’ engagements with climate change mitigation depend on and align with more general understandings of climate change in UK society and beyond. The analysis makes clear that ecological modernisation and neo-liberal governmentality more generally provide the context for the current focus on and belief in technological, behaviour change, and especially market-based mitigation strategies. While current research trajectories are important and insightful, we believe that a deeper engagement with theoretical insights from the social sciences will produce richer understandings of transport mitigation in transport and briefly outline some of the contributions thinking on socio-technical transitions and practice theories can make.     

Competition policy and the liberalisation of European aviation

The European aviation industry is undergoing a process of liberalisation. One of the important lessons of American deregulation was that the industry is not perfectly contestable. One implication of this is that actual competition on a route is important in order to be able to secure the benefits of deregulation or liberalisation. Another is that effective competition policy is important in order to prevent anti-competitive mergers or predatory behaviour. This paper reviews the merger investigations in European aviation which have accompanied the search by carriers to secure the benefits of market power, and considers the extent of route competition within the European Community and its relationship to the different route licensing policies of different national governments. The paper considers the extent of present competition on the busiest routes, and stresses the importance of cabotage rights in opening up the European market to effective competition.     

The Asian economic crisis and the aviation industry: Impacts and response strategies

Most airlines across Asia are struggling to cope with an unprecedented economic crisis which they have very little control over, and the survival of some remains in doubt. The continuing uncertainty generated by the crisis has accelerated the process of change in the aviation industry and has highlighted the need for adaptability, and its effects have been deeper and longer lasting than previously anticipated. After a year-long slump in the Asian travel market, airlines are now considering a range of options and rehabilitation programmes including a series of cost-cutting measures. There appears to be a trend towards the extension and consolidation of strategic alliances, structural and operational reorganization, and the application of new technologies. The success of these measures will become apparent over time, but action is necessary to minimize the adverse consequences of the crisis which has dominated the region since 1997.     

Acceptance of disincentives to driving and pro-environmental transport intentions: the role of value structure,environmental beliefs and norm activation

Transportation - In order to facilitate pro-environmental transport mode use it is important to promote acceptance for disincentives to driving and intentions to use public transport. The present...     

Intelligent freight-transportation systems: Assessment and the contribution of operations research

While it is certainly too early to make a definitive assessment of the effectiveness of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), it is not to take stock of what has been achieved and to think about what could be achieved in the near future. In our opinion, ITS developments have been up to now largely hardware-driven and have led to the introduction of many sophisticated technologies in the transportation arena, while the development of the software component of ITS, models and decision-support systems in particular, is lagging behind. To reach the full potential of ITS, one must thus address the challenge of making the most intelligent usage possible of the hardware that is being deployed and the huge wealth of data it provides. We believe that transportation planning and management disciplines, operations research in particular, have a key role to play with respect to this challenge. The paper focuses on Freight ITS: Commercial Vehicle Operations and Advanced Fleet Management Systems, City Logistics, and electronic business. The paper reviews main issues, technological challenges, and achievements, and illustrates how the introduction of better operations research-based decision-support software could very significantly improve the ultimate performance of Freight ITS.     

The role of accident exposure in transport system safety evaluations II: Group exposure and induced exposure

Part I of this paper has argued that any meaningful evaluation of transport system safety must include a consideration of the exposure to accidents, and has demonstrated the use and limitations of several measures of exposure at intersections and along links of the network. To complement this treatment of site exposure, this part of the paper will describe the use of group exposure measures in the assessment of risks incurred by people within particular population groupings. The use of induced exposure measures is also briefly reviewed.     

The role of accident exposure in transport system safety evaluations I: Intersection and link site exposure

Realistic predictions of the likely safety performance of advanced transport systems will need to draw on the knowledge accumulated from a large number of safety evaluations which have already been undertaken for existing transport systems. In particular, safety evaluations of future technologies must avoid the methodological pitfalls experienced in extensively researched areas, such as road safety, if such evaluations are to be meaningful. This paper reviews the use of exposure for a broad range of road safety studies, and concludes that unsatisfactory treatment of exposure is a common failing in past evaluations of the effectiveness of road accident countermeasures. Whilst a broad range of safety analyses is discussed, the use of exposure in site safety studies is emphasized. A follow-up paper will extend the discussion to other aspects of accident exposure including exposure measures for large groups of transport system users.     

湖北:智能运输推动道路运输产业升级

二十世纪八十年代以来,发达国家已逐渐从主要依靠修建公路、扩大路网规模来满足不断增长的交通需求,转移到用高新技术来改良公路运输系统及管理体系,从而达到大幅度提高路网通行能力和服务质量的目的.为了解决交通问题,日本、美国和西欧等发达国家都投入大量资金和人力,研究开发并应用了ITS(智能运输系统),即综合运用先进的电子技术、信息技术、传感器技术和系统工程技术,建立起全方位、实时准确、高效的运输系统.     

Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: Case studies for the USA and Europe

Global temperature rise over the long term will be proportional to the total amount of CO₂ emitted. Any given probability of exceeding a targeted maximum temperature rise implies a maximum limit on the cumulative total of CO₂ that can be emitted: a CO₂ “budget”. This paper describes an approach to modelling cumulative emissions from light and heavy duty road transport from the present to 2050, focussing on the USA and Europe, and comparing the potential impacts of a range of technological and behaviourally-based abatement measures with such cumulative emissions budgets.The model shows that abatement measures would have a lower effect on cumulative emissions from 2000 to 2050 than on annual emissions in 2050, so that focussing only on annual emissions could be misleading. It shows that technological developments would be insufficient on their own to enable Europe and the USA to meet CO₂ budgets for road transport. Behavioural changes, which potentially can be implemented much sooner, would be essential too. There is potential to keep European light duty emissions very close to CO₂ budgets, and US light duty emissions not far above the least restrictive budget, but the model predicts that heavy duty emissions in both regions are likely to exceed their CO₂ budgets. Deeper emissions reductions in other regions and sectors will be needed to compensate for this. Timing would be critical: for the greatest impact, behaviour change policies and interventions would need to be applied early and deeply.     

The role of VMT reduction in meeting climate change policy goals

This article evaluates the case for vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reduction as a core policy goal for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs), concluding the economic impacts and social consequences would be too severe given the modest potential environmental benefits. Attempts to reduce VMT typically rely on very blunt policy instruments, such as increasing urban densities, and run the risk of reducing mobility, reducing access to jobs, and narrowing the range of housing choice. VMT reduction, in fact, is an inherently blunt policy instrument because it relies almost exclusively on changing human behavior and settlement patterns to increase transit use and reduce automobile travel rather than directly target GHGs. It also uses long-term strategies with highly uncertain effects on GHGs based on current research. Not surprisingly, VMT reduction strategies often rank among the most costly and least efficient options. In contrast, less intrusive policy approaches such as improved fuel efficiency and traffic signal optimization are more likely to directly reduce GHGs than behavioral approaches such as increasing urban densities to promote higher public transit usage. As a general principle, policymakers should begin addressing policy concerns using the least intrusive and costly approaches first. Climate change policy should focus on directly targeting greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., through a carbon tax) rather than using the blunt instrument of VMT reduction to preserve the economic and social benefits of mobility in modern, service-based economies. Targeted responses are also more cost effective, implying that the social welfare costs of climate change policy will be smaller than using broad-brushed approaches that directly attempt to influence living patterns and travel behavior.     

ITS applications in public transport: Improving the service to the transport system

This paper examines all the disparate technologies and techniques capable of smoothing the integration of public transport modes and services at both the urban and interurban scale. The paper focuses on the application of information technology and telematics solutions which have been designed to create as seamless a journey as possible from the point of view of the transport system user. The scope of the paper is therefore deliberately wide‐ranging and includes an examination of measures as apparently unconnected as smartcard ticketing, bus priority systems, automatic vehicle locationing, trip planning and on‐board information systems as well as new public transport services offering demand responsive travel and integration with taxi services. The paper intends to show how such technological solutions can be used to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of fixed public transport networks in comparison to the door‐to‐door flexibility of the private car.     

Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

Economic and emissions impacts of renewable fuel goals for aviation in the US

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has a goal that one billion gallons of renewable jet fuel is consumed by the US aviation industry each year from 2018. We examine the economic and emissions impacts of this goal using renewable fuel produced from a Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) process from renewable oils. Our approach employs an economy-wide model of economic activity and energy systems and a detailed partial equilibrium model of the aviation industry. If soybean oil is used as a feedstock, we find that meeting the aviation biofuel goal in 2020 will require an implicit subsidy from airlines to biofuel producers of $2.69 per gallon of renewable jet fuel. If the aviation goal can be met by fuel from oilseed rotation crops grown on otherwise fallow land, the implicit subsidy is $0.35 per gallon of renewable jet fuel. As commercial aviation biofuel consumption represents less than 2% of total fuel used by this industry, the goal has a small impact on the average price of jet fuel and carbon dioxide emissions. We also find that, under the pathways we examine, the cost per tonne of CO₂ abated due to aviation biofuels is between $50 and $400.     

The role of telematics applications in shaping the new road freight transport scene in Europe

The Road Freight Transport scene in Europe is undergoing significant changes. The main driving forces shaping the new operating environment for road freight operations (RFO) in the EEC include: the EEC transport policy; the changing demands of shippers; and developments in road transport informatics (RTI) applications. The role of RTI in the new scene is crucial and a pan‐European strategy is required for their evolution and diffusion towards achieving objectives such as efficiency, environmental protection, and safety. In studying this, alternative scenarios were devised for the development of RFO in the next 20 years in Europe. For every scenario the most important RFO activities were identified and the possibility for serving these scenario‐specific activities by various RTI technologies was evaluated and relevant strategies were developed. Finally, at this stage of the work using multicriteria analysis the most important RTI technologies to be promoted by governments were identified.