LUTI operational models review based on the proposition of an a priori ALUTI conceptual model

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on understanding to what extent the components of LUTI models and their mutual interactions are conceptually represented by eight operational LUTI models. This is important for the understanding of LUTI models’ mechanisms, firstly because it may reduce communication barriers between planning communities, secondly because it may help us understand the models’ applicability, and thirdly it may highlight the models’ shortcomings and point for future research. We present a discussion about what subsystems should be considered for LUTI modelling, from which we derived an “a priori” conceptual ALUTI model (incorporating Activities, besides Land Use and Transport). By comparing the rationale behind each model with this conceptual model, we establish the basis for our review, focussing on whether these models incorporate the ALUTI components, its inner workings and the relationships between these components. Results indicate three main limitations of the reviewed models. First, models not always adequately include all the components of the a priori ALUTI model. Second, the ALUTI subsystems’ internal functions are not explicitly modelled in several of the models reviewed, making it difficult to evaluate how planning decisions affect the subsystem. Third, only few models recognise all mutual interactions, especially in respect to the Activity subsystem.     

Social influences on household location, mobility and activity choice in integrated micro-simulation models

Agent-based approaches to simulating long-term location and mobility decisions and short-term activity and travel decisions of households and individuals are receiving increasing attention in land-use and transportation interaction (LUTI) models to predict land-use changes and travel behaviour in mutual interaction. Social interactions between households and between individuals potentially have an influence on a wide range of the long-term and short-term choices involved in these systems. In this paper we identify the areas in which social interactions play a role and address the question how these influences can be modelled in the context of agent-based LUTI models. We distinguish impacts on activity participation (joint activity participation, support-and-help activities) and impacts on decision making (information exchange, social adaptation of preferences and aspirations) as the two main areas of social influence. A prototype of a LUTI model is proposed that accounts for impacts of the social network on longer-term mobility decision making through information exchange and social adaptation of preferences and aspirations. The model is demonstrated in a numerical simulation.     

Urban walkability considering pedestrians’ perceptions of the built environment: a 10-year review and a case study in a medium-sized city in Latin America

ABSTRACT

Numerous methodologies measuring walkability have been developed over the last years. This paper reviews the Walkability Index (WI) literature of the last decade (2009–2018) and highlights some limitations in the current approaches. Only a few studies have evaluated walkability in Latin America, mainly in big cities but not in medium and small-sized cities in the region, which present their own urbanisation dynamics, security issues, sidewalk invasion problems, and poor planning. Furthermore, most WIs in the literature use objective mesoscale variables to assess walkability in a given area. This paper contributes to filling these gaps by generating new evidence from a medium-sized city in Latin America to question if characteristics of the built environment encourage walking trips, as found in the literature, are transferable among regions. The study also proposes a novel index comprised of microscale and mesoscale built environment variables to assess walkability using virtual tools and considering users’ perceptions. The WI estimation relies on ranking probability models. The results of the case study suggest that subjective Security and Traffic Safety are the most crucial factors influencing walkability in these kind of cities, which is different from what is found in the literature from cities in developed countries where Sidewalk Condition and Attractiveness are the most important factors. Security appeared to be strongly associated with a subjective dimension, represented by the fear of crime or perceived risk for crime, instead of the actual occurrence of crimes. This result evidences the importance of the physical attributes of the real world and how they are captured, judged, and processed by pedestrians. Then, regional transferability of WIs needs to be done carefully. Finally, results in this paper highlight the importance of microscale built environment characteristics in the WI formulation in these cities. Results are in line with other research in some cities of the region, which found that microscale variables such as pavement quality and presence of obstacles on the sidewalks are relevant components to promote walkability.     

An international study on land‐use and transport interaction

This paper underlines the important role played by the interaction between transport and land use in the way cities develop and the need to use a fully integrated land‐use/transport model to assess the longer‐term impacts of urban policies. Since most of the models of this type had never been properly tested, the Transport and Road Research Laboratory in the early 1980s set up a collaborative study to examine critically their performance and to assess the impacts of a range of commonly applied policies.

The paper briefly describes the first phase of the study in which nine models from seven countries were subjected to a rigorous set of tests covering a variety of policies. For practical reasons each model was applied to the city on which it was originally calibrated. To overcome some of the problems of comparison, a second phase of the study was conducted in which some models were applied to several cities each so that the differences due to the particular characteristics of the cities could be identified. In carrying out this phase, some cities were examined by several models and discrepancies in the results analysed. The setting up of the second phase of the study is outlined in this paper, but not the results, which are given in later papers in this and subsequent issues of Transport Reviews.     

A conflict model and interactive simulator (FASTCARS) for predicting enroute driver behavior in response to real-time traffic condition information

This paper proposes a theoretical methodology and practical data collection approach for modeling enroute driver behavioral choice under Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS). The theoretical framework is based on conflict assessment and resolution theories popularized in psychology and applied to models of individual consumer behavior. It is posed that enroute assessment and adjustment is a reactionary process influenced by increased conflict arousal and motivation to change. When conflict rises to a level at which conflict exceeds a personal threshold of tolerance, drivers are likely to alter enroute behavior to alleviate conflict through either route diversion of goal revision. Assessment and response to conflict arousal directly relate to the driver's abilities to perceive and predict network conditions in conjunction with familiarity of network configurations and accessible alternate routes.Data collection is accomplished through FASTCARS (Freeway andArterialStreetTrafficConflictArousal andResolutionSimulator), in interactive microcomputer-based driving simulator. Limited real-world implementation of ATIS has made it difficult to study or predict individual driver reaction to these technologies. It is contended here that in-laboratory experimentation with interactive route choice simulators can substitute for the lack of real-world applications and provide an alternate approach to data collection and driver behavior analysis. This paper will explain how FASTCARS is useful for collecting data and testing theories of driver behavior.     

Towards marginal cost pricing: A comparison of alternative pricing systems

European urban areas are marred by the problems of congestion and environmental degradation due to the prevailing levels of car use. Strong arguments have thus been put forward in support of a policy based on marginal cost pricing (European Commission 1996). Such policy measures – which would force private consumers to pay for a public service that was previously provided "for free" – are, however, notoriously unpopular with the general public and hence also with their elected representatives – the politicians. There is thus an obvious tension between economic theory, which suggests that marginal cost pricing is the welfare maximising solution to urban transport problems, and practical experience, which suggests that such pricing measures are unwanted by the affected population and hence hard to implement through democratic processes. The AFFORD Project for the European Commission has aimed to investigate this paradox and its possible solutions, through a combination of economic analysis, predictive modelling, attitudinal surveys, and an assessment of fiscal and financial measures within a number of case study cities in Europe. In this paper the methodology and results obtained for the Edinburgh case study are reported in detail. The study analyses alternative road pricing instruments and compares their performance against the theoretical first best situation. It discusses the effect of coverage, location, charging mechanism and interaction with other instruments. The paper shows that limited coverage in one mode may lead to a deviation from the user pays principle in other modes, that location is as important as charge levels and that assumptions about the use of revenues are critical in determining the effect on equity and acceptability. Finally the results show that a relatively simple smart card system can come close to providing the economic first best solution, but that this result should be viewed in the context of the model assumptions.     

A bus route evaluation model based on GIS and super-efficient data envelopment analysis

When compared to large cities in developed countries, the shares of public transportation in most Chinese cities are low. Increasing the competitiveness of urban public transportation remains an urgent problem. A capable evaluation method for public transportation is required to assist the development of urban transit systems. This paper focuses on the bus system. Being devoid of standard criteria, it is difficult to determine the efficiency of a transit system or any bus line using a single evaluation index. This paper proposes a comparative analysis to evaluate bus lines so as to filter out candidates for further optimization. From the viewpoints of transit planning, operation and quality of service, this paper establishes 10 subordinate evaluation indices and then uses geographical information system tools, global positioning system data and smart card data to assist the index definition and calculation. Super-efficient data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is adopted for the proposed single factor and comprehensive evaluation models. Finally, the bus system in Shenzhen, China is used as a case study. The comparable significant results validate the capability of the proposed model.     

The impact of Low Emission Zones on particulate matter concentration and public health

A common policy for reducing particulate matter concentrations in the European Union is the introduction of Low Emission Zones (LEZs), which may only be entered by vehicles meeting predefined emission standards. This paper examines the effectiveness of LEZs for reducing PM₁₀ levels in urban areas in Germany and quantifies the associated health impacts from reduced air pollution within the zones. We employ a fixed effects panel data model for daily observations of PM₁₀ concentrations from 2000 to 2009 and control, inter alia, for local meteorological conditions and traffic volume. We apply the regression outputs to a concentration response function derived from the epidemiological literature to calculate associated health impacts of the introduction of LEZs in 25 German cities with 3.96 million inhabitants. Associated uncertainties are accounted for in Monte-Carlo simulations. It is found that the introduction of LEZs has significantly reduced inner city PM₁₀ levels. We estimate the total mean health impact from reduced air pollution in 2010 due to the introduction of stage 1 zones to be ∼760 million EUR in the 25 LEZ cities in the sample, whereas total mean health benefits are ∼2.4 billion EUR for the more stringent stage 2 zones when applied in the same cities.     

The MEPLAN models of Bilbao,Leeds and Dortmund

A trio of closely related land‐use/transport interaction models was developed using Marcial Echenique & Partners’ software package MEPLAN. The models were for the cities of Bilbao, (Spain), Dortmund (West Germany) and Leeds (England). All were calibrated using data drawn from earlier studies. The three models were used to predict the effects (relative to a base case) of a common programme of land‐use and transport policies or scenarios. This paper explains briefly the theoretical basis of the MEPLAN package as applied to urban models such as these three; describes the types of policies that have been assessed; and presents some of the key results.     

Cycling to work in 90 large American cities: new evidence on the role of bike paths and lanes

This article analyzes the variation in bike commuting in large American cities, with a focus on assessing the influence of bike paths and lanes, which have been the main approach to increasing cycling in the USA. To examine the role of cycling facilities, we used a newly assembled dataset on the length of bike lanes and paths in 2008 collected directly from 90 of the 100 largest U.S. cities. Pearson’s correlation, bivariate quartile analysis, and two different types of regressions were used to measure the relationship between cycling levels and bikeways, as well as other explanatory and control variables. Ordinary Least Squares and Binary Logit Proportions regressions confirm that cities with a greater supply of bike paths and lanes have significantly higher bike commute rates—even when controlling for land use, climate, socioeconomic factors, gasoline prices, public transport supply, and cycling safety. Standard tests indicate that the models are a good fit, with R ² ranging between 0.60 and 0.65. Computed coefficients have the expected signs for all variables in the various regression models, but not all are statistically significant. Estimated elasticities indicate that both off-street paths and on-street lanes have a similar positive association with bike commute rates in U.S. cities. Our results are consistent with previous research on the importance of separate cycling facilities and provide additional information about the potentially different role of paths vs. lanes. Our analysis also revealed that cities with safer cycling, lower auto ownership, more students, less sprawl, and higher gasoline prices had more cycling to work. By comparison, annual precipitation, the number of cold and hot days, and public transport supply were not statistically significant predictors of bike commuting in large cities.     

西部中小城市老城区交通改善研究

西部中小城市中心城区老城区特殊的地理背景,决定了其交通改善的特殊性。文章介绍了西部中小城市老城区综合交通系统现状和城市规划现状,分析了其特有的城市交通特点与存在的问题,从系统工程的角度提出了一系列交通改善措施。     

Exploring built environment impacts on transit use – an updated meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

The built environment (BE) is widely accepted to influence transit use (TU). Evidence to date suggests the relationship is dependent on many factors which can be difficult to account for in quantitative studies. This creates barriers to transferring research into practice. Considering many studies together can be useful for accounting for more of the factors impacting transit use. Yet, meta-analysis of research measuring these influences was last undertaken in 2010 based on 18 studies. Since then 90 new quantitative studies have been published. These recent studies use improved methodologies and are conducted in more diverse geographies. This paper reports an improved and updated meta-analysis of built environment impacts on transit use. It compares elasticity estimates from research published pre-and post-2010 and explores the impact of new methods and a more diverse geographical representation on findings. Updated meta-elasticities range from <0.01 to 0.26; a similar range to the 2010 study. However, at the individual indicator levels, more recent results are different. Elasticities for urban density, including population, employment and commercial density, have increased significantly in studies published since 2010, as did that of land use mix. However, measures of local access, design and jobs-housing balance decreased in post-2010 studies. These results confirm the small but imprecise relationship between the BE and TU. Results also suggest that while the range of elasticity impacts is relatively consistent, new study methodologies, notably those that control for regional accessibility and self-selection, and the increasing geographical diversity in study applications, is acting to change BE-TU findings at the indicator level. Research setting and context are important to consider when using empirical results to design BE strategies to promote transit use.     

Preliminary results of an analysis of areas of influence in Shanghai

The main deficiency of most current modeling approaches to transportation can be identified as neglect of the integration of existing geographical knowledge in regard to the ex ante transport/land use modeling approaches, with its focus on territorial dynamics and theory development. This paper addresses this aspect of the problem by introducing a theoretical and methodological framework for the analysis of the interrelationship between land uses. The analysis attempts to determine to what extent the functional land use in a city can be considered an ordered pattern. The order sought does not rely on purely spatial configurations, but on the correlation of transportation and land use. The first section of this paper focuses on theoretical considerations. It stresses the fact that conventional approaches do not apply in the present context. It then suggests an alternative based on areas of influence and measured in terms of level of attractance of land uses. The second describes a procedure based on this alternative following the remarkable contribution of Hanjoul, Beguin and Thill. An application of this procedure to the analysis of Shanghai is then examined. Finally, an evaluation of the strategies for optimizing the interrelationship between land uses is presented. The paper concludes with a possible research agenda.     

Cordon tolls and competition between cities with symmetric and asymmetric interactions

The aim of this paper is to model the impacts of competition between cities on both the optimal welfare generating tolls and upon longer-term decisions such as business and residential location choices. The research uses a dynamic land use transport interaction model of two neighbouring cities and analyses the impacts by setting up a game between the two cities to maximise the welfare of their own residents. The work builds on our earlier research which studied competition in a small network using a static equilibrium approach for private car traffic without accounting for the land use responses to the change in accessibility. This paper extends the earlier work by setting up a dynamic model which includes active modes of travel and the more usual car and public transport in a realistic twin city setting and assesses the longer term relocation responses. This paper firstly sets out the competition between two hypothetical identical cities i.e. the symmetric case; and then sets out the real world asymmetric case in which the cities are of different size representative of Leeds and Bradford in the UK but equally applicable elsewhere too. We found that the level of interaction between the two cities is a key determinant to the optimal tolls and welfare gains. Our findings show that the competition between cities could lead to a Nash Trap at which both cities are worse off in terms of welfare gains. On the other hand, we found that cities, if regulated, would gain in terms of welfare and yet charge only half the toll compared with tolls under competition. We then show that the effect of competition increases with increased interaction between cities. In terms of residential location, cities with higher charges benefit from an increase in residents, though as with other studies, the relative change in population in response to cordon charging is small. The policy implications are threefold—(i) while there is an incentive to cooperate at local authority level, this is not achieved due to competition; (ii) where cities compete they may fall into a Nash Trap where both cities will be worse off compared to the regulated solution; and (iii) regulation is recommended when there is a strong interaction between the cities but that the benefits of regulation decrease as interaction between cities decreases and the impact of competition is lessened.     

Impact of public transport and non-motorized transport infrastructure on travel mode shares,energy, emissions and safety: Case of Indian cities

Current modal share in Indian cities is in favor of non-motorized transport (NMT) and public transport (PT), however historical trends shows decline in its use. Existing NMT and PT infrastructure in Indian cities is of poor quality resulting in increasing risk from road traffic crashes to these users. It is therefore likely that the current NMT and PT users will shift to personal motorized vehicles (PMV) as and when they can afford it. Share of NMT and PT users can be retained and possibly increased if safe and convenient facilities for them are created. This shall also have impact on reducing environment impacts of transport system.We have studied travel behavior of three medium size cities – Udaipur, Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam. Later the impact of improving built environment and infrastructure on travel mode shares, fuel consumption, emission levels and traffic safety in Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam are analyzed. For the purpose three scenarios are developed – improving only NMT infrastructure, improving only bus infrastructure and improving both NMT and bus infrastructure.The study shows the strong role of NMT infrastructure in both cities despite geographical dissimilarities. The scenario analysis shows maximum reduction in CO₂ emissions is achieved when both PT and NMT infrastructure are improved. Improvement in safety indicator is highest in this scenario. Improving only PT infrastructure may have marginal effect on overall reduction of CO₂ emissions and adverse effects on traffic safety. NMT infrastructure is crucial for maintaining the travel mode shares in favor of PT and NMT in future.     

Improving the efficiency of repeated dynamic network loading through marginal simulation

Currently, the applicability of macroscopic Dynamic Network Loading (DNL) models for large-scale problems such as network-wide traffic management, reliability and vulnerability studies, network design, traffic flow optimization and dynamic origin–destination (OD) estimation is computationally problematic. The main reason is that these applications require a large number of DNL runs to be performed. Marginal DNL simulation, introduced in this paper, exploits the fact that the successive simulations often exhibit a large overlap. Through marginal simulation, repeated DNL simulations can be performed much faster by approximating each simulation as a variation to a base scenario. Thus, repetition of identical calculations is largely avoided. The marginal DNL algorithm that is presented, the Marginal Computation (MaC) algorithm, is based on first order kinematic wave theory. Hence, it realistically captures congestion dynamics. MaC can simulate both demand and supply variations, making it useful for a wide range of DNL applications. Case studies on different types of networks are presented to illustrate its performance.     

Applications of Random-Utility-based Multi-region Input–Output Models of Transport and the Spatial Economy

Abstract

An introduction to random-utility-based multiregional input–output models used for the purpose of spatial economic and transport interaction modelling is provided. The main methodological developments and important results of a dozen applications from the years 1996–2013 are described. This is followed by an outlook of potential future directions. Further research is mainly needed in five areas: (a) overall validation of the method, perhaps through back-casting applications on infrastructure plans with observed trade impacts; (b) extensions of trade coefficient models to add realism and improve accuracy; (c) the use of multi-scale modelling to capture interdependencies between geographical scales and to improve the representation of exports and imports; (d) improvements in the representation of price effects, as well as innovation and technological progress, by way of variable technical coefficients; and (e) a deeper investigation of the algorithm used to include elastic selling prices.     

Welfare evaluation with a road capacity constraint

Severe traffic congestion in and around many cities across the world has resulted in programmes of extensive road building and other capacity increasing projects. But traffic congestion has often not fallen in the long run and neither has journey speed increased. Demand for peak period road travel, particularly by car, has grown so strongly that increases in road capacity have been quickly matched by increased road use. This paper develops a model of a road network characterised by insatiable road passenger (car and bus) demand. The model parameters are calibrated on a typical urban road network, and a number of simulations conducted to determine social welfare after the introduction of a road capacity constraint into the optimisation process. The empirical results have an important policy implication for the evaluation of projects that increase road capacity, namely that standard methods of cost-benefit analysis may tend to overestimate the net benefits of such projects by a significant amount. Although the model is developed in the context of roads and road traffic congestion, it could also be applied to air travel.     

The taxi's role in urban America: Today and tomorrow

Changes in the economic and demographic characteristics of US cities over the past two decades have modified but have not diminished the need for extensive public transportation service in these areas. The vast bulk of trips to work, to shop, and for most other purposes within large American cities are still made by residents of those cities, a significant portion of whom do not own or have access to an automobile. Expensive and far-ranging programs to enhance surburban commutation to the central city by means of rail rapid transit do little to meet the needs of those who still must rely upon local, extensive service within the city.One form of public transport — the taxicab — offers the quality and flexibility of service which even those of limited means find well worth the price. As a consequence, fleet taxicabs serve almost 40 percent more passengers than all US rapid transit systems and about 60 percent as many passengers as all bus transit systems. Removal of archaic and restrictive regulations governing the number and use of taxicabs in major US cities would promote more effective and widespread use of this, the only form of public transit that still operates — at a profit — without public subsidy.     

Beirut travel characteristics — A comparative study

This paper reviews the results of an origin-destination survey conducted in Beirut, Lebanon. The survey was conducted according to the techniques developed and used in the U.S.A.There has always been some doubt that methodologies and techniques, namely dwelling unit interviews, developed for use in U.S. cities would work in cities of developing countries. The results of the study indicated that such methods proved to be useful and effective.In spite of the higher residential density and lower level of car ownership, trip rates in the city of Beirut were within the ranges observed in U.S. cities. The comparison of travel parameters acquired from various cities around the world might show that the regularities and trends in urban transportation are universal.