A hierarchical line planning approach for a large-scale high speed rail network: The China case

Planning a set of train lines in a large-scale high speed rail (HSR) network is typically influenced by issues of longer travel distance, high transport demand, track capacity constraints, and a non-periodic timetable. In this paper, we describe an integrated hierarchical approach to determine line plans by defining the stations and trains according to two classes. Based on a bi-level programming model, heuristics are developed for two consecutive stages corresponding to each classification. The approach determines day-period based train line frequencies as well as a combination of various stopping patterns for a mix of fast trunk line services between major stations and a variety of slower body lines that offer service to intermediate stations, so as to satisfy the predicted passenger transport demand. Efficiencies of the line plans described herein concern passenger travel times, train capacity occupancy, and the number of transfers. Moreover, our heuristics allow for combining many additional conflicting demand–supply factors to design a line plan with predominantly cost-oriented and/or customer-oriented objectives. A range of scenarios are developed to generate three line plans for a real-world example of the HSR network in China using a decision support system. The performance of potential train schedules is evaluated to further examine the feasibility of the obtained line plans through graphical timetables.     

Public financing of private freight rail infrastructure to reduce highway congestion: A case study of public policy and decision making in the United States

As goods movement continues to increase it is expected to outpace infrastructure capacity in the United States. Moving a larger share of goods by rail rather than truck is a potentially cost effective part of a solution. Freight rail not only offers a substitute for truck trips but is a cleaner, more energy efficient, and safer alternative. Recently a number of private freight rail projects have received public funding. The public funds are aimed at increasing freight rail capacity with the goal of diverting some goods currently moved by truck to rail. While the benefits of moving goods by rail are relatively clear, it is unclear if public decision makers can effectively identify strategic rail investments that will achieve their policy goals. This study critically examines the analytical methods, models, and data that are commonly used to support decisions to provide public funds for private freight rail projects. This is accomplished through a case study of California’s Trade Corridors Improvement Fund program which provided $680 million for 11 freight rail projects. The study’s contributions include identifying critical analytical flaws and challenges affecting the benefit estimates that public funding decisions rely on. Improvements to current evaluation methods are also identified as are regulatory reforms and policy interventions that may offer more effective and reliable outcomes.     

A bi-level model for single-line rail timetable design with consideration of demand and capacity

This paper proposes a bi-level model to solve the timetable design problem for an urban rail line. The upper level model aims at determining the headways between trains to minimize total passenger cost, which includes not only the usual perceived travel time cost, but also penalties during travel. With the headways given by the upper level model, passengers’ arrival times at their origin stops are determined by the lower level model, in which the cost-minimizing behavior of each passenger is taken into account. To make the model more realistic, explicit capacity constraints of individual trains are considered. With these constraints, passengers cannot board a full train, but wait in queues for the next coming train. A two-stage genetic algorithm incorporating the method of successive averages is introduced to solve the bi-level model. Two hypothetical examples and a real world case are employed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed bi-level model and algorithm. Results show that the bi-level model performs well in reducing total passenger cost, especially in reducing waiting time cost and penalties. And the section loading-rates of trains in the optimized timetable are more balanced than the even-headway timetable. The sensitivity analyses show that passenger’s desired arrival time interval at destination and crowding penalty factor have a high influence on the optimal solution. And with the dispersing of passengers' desired arrival time intervals or the increase of crowding penalty factor, the section loading-rates of trains become more balanced.     

Tradable network permits: A new scheme for the most efficient use of network capacity

Akamatsu et al. (2006) proposed a new transportation demand management scheme called “tradable bottleneck permits” (TBP), and proved its efficiency properties for a single bottleneck model. This paper explores the properties of a TBP system for general networks. An equilibrium model is first constructed to describe the states under the TBP system with a single OD pair. It is proved that equilibrium resource allocation is efficient in the sense that the total transportation cost in a network is minimized. It is also shown that the “self-financing principle” holds for the TBP system. Furthermore, theoretical relationships between TBP and congestion pricing (CP) are discussed. It is demonstrated that TBP has definite advantages over CP when demand information is not perfect, whereas both TBP and CP are equivalent for the perfect information case. Finally, it is shown that the efficiency result also holds for more general demand conditions.     

Modeling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge,road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects

Government guarantees are frequently used to attract private investors’ participation into Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects. In this paper, we investigate the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and road capacity by taking perspective of the private investor. The main results are: (1) Minimum traffic guarantee increases toll charge while decreasing road quality. Under a low guarantee level, minimum traffic guarantee has no impact on road capacity. However, it improves road capacity when a high guarantee level is performed. (2) Under minimum revenue guarantee, if the guarantee level is sufficiently high, the optimal toll charge will be sufficiently large, but road quality and road capacity will approach zero. (3) Price compensation guarantee decreases toll charge and increases both road quality and road capacity. This paper further investigates the impact of government guarantees when the contract is auctioned. We find that auction reduces the impact of government guarantees on toll charge while failing to affect the impact of government guarantees on road quality and capacity. Some policy implications are also derived from our model results.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

Planning for the unexpected: The value of reserve capacity for public transport network robustness

Public transport networks (PTN) are subject to recurring service disruptions. Most studies of the robustness of PTN have focused on network topology and considered vulnerability in terms of connectivity reliability. While these studies provide insights on general design principles, there is lack of knowledge concerning the effectiveness of different strategies to reduce the impacts of disruptions. This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of a strategic increase in capacity on alternative PTN links to mitigate the impact of unexpected network disruptions. The evaluation approach consists of two stages: identifying a set of important links and then for each identified important link, a set of capacity enhancement schemes is evaluated. The proposed method integrates stochastic supply and demand models, dynamic route choice and limited operational capacity. This dynamic agent-based modelling of network performance enables to capture cascading network effects as well as the adaptive redistribution of passenger flows. An application for the rapid PTN of Stockholm, Sweden, demonstrates how the proposed method could be applied to sequentially designed scenarios based on their performance indicators. The method presented in this paper could support policy makers and operators in prioritizing measures to increase network robustness by improving system capacity to absorb unexpected disruptions.     

A multi-criteria evaluation of solutions and alternatives for matching capacity to demand in an airport system: the case of London

This paper applies multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to the evaluation of solutions and alternatives for matching airport system airside (runway) capacity to demand. For such a purpose, ‘building a new runway’ is considered as the solution and candidate airports of the system as alternatives for implementing the solution. The alternative airports are characterized by their physical/spatial, operational, economic, environmental, and social performance represented by corresponding indicator systems which, after being defined and estimated under given operating scenarios, are used as evaluation attributes/criteria by the selected MCDM methods. Two MCDM methods – Simple Additive Weighting and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution – are applied to the case of the London airport system to rank and select the preferred alternative from three candidate airports – Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted – for where a new runway could be built.     

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.     

Impacts of commuting efficiency on congestion and emissions: case of the Hamilton CMA, Canada

This study uses IMULATE (Integrated Model of Urban LAnd use, Transportation, energy and Emissions) to examine the impacts of commuting efficiency on congestion and automobile emissions—specifically, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides—in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area. Estimates of these externalities are compared for two commuting scenarios: a base scenario of estimated commuting flows for 1991 and an optimal scenario in which the mean commuting time for all workers is minimized. The findings indicate that significant reductions in congestion and automobile emissions are possible by advocating policies that encourage greater commuting efficiency in the locational choices of workers. The analysis of jobs–housing balance as one such means suggests that a considerable proportion of commuting cannot be explained by geographical imbalances in the distributions of jobs and housing, and that workers consider many factors besides commuting costs in their locational choices. It is concluded that policies promoting jobs–housing balance as the principal strategy for facilitating more efficient commuting may not meet the expectations of policy-makers.     

The transit network design problem with elastic demand and internalisation of external costs: An application to rail frequency optimisation

In this paper we examine the transit network design problem under the assumption of elastic demand, focusing on the problem of designing the frequencies of a regional metro. In this problem, investments in transit services have appreciable effects on modal split. Neglecting demand elasticity can lead to solutions that may not represent the actual objectives of the design. We propose four different objective functions that can be adopted to assume demand as elastic, considering the costs of all transportation systems (car, bus and rail) as well as the external costs, and we define the constraints of the problem. Heuristic and meta-heuristic solution algorithms are also proposed. The models and algorithms are tested on a small network and on a real-scale network.     

Defining the functional and physical compatibility of a modernized tramway rolling stock with a newly planned LRT system: a case study of Belgrade

According to the Belgrade Master Plan for 2021, the public transportation system for the city and its region will include three rail modes: a modernized existing tramway, regional rail, and a new light rail transit (LRT) mode. In the coming years all three rail modes should be developed simultaneously and in a coordinated manner. The introduction of LRT is to be realized in several phases, and its first line will partially follow the alignment of an existing tramway line. As the present tramway vehicles are obsolete, new rolling stock must be designed and purchased to be compatible with many of the elements of the LRT. Ways to adjust the new tramways to the LRT rolling stock represent the central topic of this paper. The basic technical and operating characteristics of the new tramway are defined with respect to their required compatibility with the LRT stock and infrastructure.     

A critical examination of an airport noise mitigation scheme and an aircraft noise charge: the case of capacity expansion and externalities at Sydney (Kingsford Smith) airport

In the wake of the Australian airline liberalization in 1990 and its forecasted impact on air traffic, capacity has been expanded at Sydney (Kingsford Smith) airport (Sydney KSA) – Australia's busiest commercial airport – with the construction of the third runway in 1994. Coinciding with the approval for this capacity expansion, the Commonwealth Government amended the Federal Airports Corporation (FAC) Act to direct the FAC to carry out activities which protect the environment from the effects of aircraft operations, with the cost to be borne by the airline industry according to the ‘Polluter Pays Principle'. Noise management plans were part of the conditions for developmental approval for a third runway. To this end, since 1995, Sydney KSA imposes a noise levy designed to generate sufficient revenues to fund a noise mitigation scheme. Although the issues of aircraft noise, in particular its impact on property values and land use planning around the airport, have been extensively addressed in the literature, no one has empirically examined the implications of new environmental policies in conjunction with airline liberalization and change in airport infrastructure. Principles and policy analyses are discussed in this paper. By focusing on the specifics of Sydney KSA, broader policy issues likely to be relevant for other major airports around the world are discussed.     

The reciprocal relationship between policy debate and media coverage: The case of road pricing policy in the Netherlands

This study examined the changes in the media coverage of two road pricing schemes proposed in the Netherlands in the period 1998–2010, as well as the link between the media coverage and the policy debate. Both pricing proposals were debated for several years and neither was introduced. Our findings show that space allocation for type of overall tone (e.g. negative or positive towards a pricing proposal) and the range of issues and policy actors in the media coverage were very different for the two proposals, and for each proposal fluctuated greatly over time. Our analysis suggests that such a variation in the media coverage was a reflection of changes in the content of the policy debate (e.g. caused by the specific design features of pricing proposal under discussion, the different policy actors engaged in the debate and their messages about the proposal). This indicates that policymakers can influence the media coverage of road pricing policies to some extent by managing the policy debate. Our findings also show not only that changes in the content of the policy debate were reflected in the media coverage, but also that the media coverage influenced the policy debate: the statements or actions of policy actors received media coverage, which then in turn stimulated the policy debate. However, the influence of media on the policy debate was rather indirect, in that policy actors mostly reacted to the messages from other policy actors reported in the media and to a lesser extent to the media coverage itself.     

Stakeholders interests,expectations, and strategies regarding the development and implementation of electric vehicles: The case of the Netherlands

In this paper, we study the strategies of the most relevant stakeholders with regard to the development and commercialization of electric vehicles (EVs) and their recharging infrastructure. Building on the perspective of socio-technical transitions, we relate the strategies of stakeholders to their current and future interests, as well as to their expectations with regard to EVs. Our analysis is based on a series of 38 semi-structured interviews with representatives of a variety of stakeholders in the Netherlands.EVs pose both opportunities and threats to various stakeholders. They therefore participate in the development of the emerging EV system, primarily in order to learn about the potential positive and negative impacts of these systems on their interests and, ultimately, to be able to grasp the opportunities and mitigate the threats. In other words, the expectations, interests, and resulting strategies of stakeholders relate to and depend upon the specific configuration of the emerging socio-technical system for electric mobility. We identify six potential conflicts of interest: the division of tasks within a public recharging infrastructure; the allocation of charging spots; the ways in which charging behavior can be influenced; the role of fast-charging, technical standards for charging equipment; and supportive policies for full-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.In general, the stakeholders do not seem overly concerned about either short-term returns on investments or long-term negative impacts. In this regard, the early phase of the transition can be understood as a relatively carefree phase. In order to continue the development of the emerging EV system and to keep it on the right track, however, for the foreseeable future, supportive policies will be necessary in order to provide a stable and reliable basis for further market expansion.     

A comparative study of a hybrid Logit–Fratar and neural network models for trip distribution: case of the city of Isfahan

This paper introduces a new procedure to forecast the future O/D demand. It is a hybrid of logit and Fratar model. The hybrid model has the long run, policy sensitive, characteristic of a logit model, calibrated at sector‐level with little/no zero O/D cells. This feature, joint with a Fratar‐type operation at zonal level within a sector, gives a better performance to this model than either of the two types of the models alone. The performance of the hybrid model is contrasted with a neural network model, and shows encouraging results in a real case. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of attitudes on reference-dependent preferences: Estimation and validation for the case of alternative-fuel vehicles

Several recent studies in transportation have analysed how choices made by individuals are influenced by attitudes. Other studies have contributed to our understanding of apparently non-rational behaviour by examining how choices may reflect reference-dependent preferences. This paper examines how reference-dependent preferences and attitudes together may explain individual choices. In a modelling framework based on a hybrid choice model allowing for both concepts, we investigate how attitudes and reference-dependent preferences interact and how they affect willingness-to-pay measures and demand elasticities. Using a data set with stated choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that allowing for reference-dependent preferences improves our ability to explain the stated choices in the data and that the attitude (appreciation of car features) explains part of the preference heterogeneity across individuals. The results indicate that individuals have reference-dependent preferences that could be explained by loss aversion and that these are indeed related to an individual’s attitude towards car features. The models are validated using a large hold-out sample. This shows that the inclusion of attitudes improves the models’ ability to explain behaviour in the hold-out sample. While neither reference-dependent preferences nor the attitude affect the average willingness-to-pay measures in our sample, their effect on choice behaviour has implications for policy recommendations as segments with varying attitudes and reference values will act differently when affected by policy instruments related to the demand for alternative-fuel vehicles, e.g. subsidies.     

Investigating travel utility elements in association with travel time and mode choice: the case of Seoul,South Korea

In this paper, travel utility is conceptualized into the elements of disutility, or derived utility, and positive utility, which includes synergistic and intrinsic utility, and then analyzed in terms of the effects of these elements on weekly travel time according to three travel modes – the automobile, public transit, and nonmotorized modes – and on the choice of the annually most used mode. Linear regressions on mode-specific travel time and a multinomial logistic regression on mode choice show that, compared to life situation and land-use characteristics, utility elements are among the strongest travel determinants. Specifically, while some utility elements contribute exclusively to shifting the mode of travel and others to increasing nonmotorized travel, modal shift is most strongly affected by a disutility element, trip timeliness, and the increase in nonmotorized travel by a positive utility element, amenities.     

Urban spatial location advantage: The dual of the transportation problem and its implications for land-use and transport planning

Numerous recent studies have investigated the relationship between the location of jobs and housing in urban areas and how this relates to urban commuting patterns. Few have utilised the dual of the transportation problem of linear programming (TPLP) to provide insights into these relationships Accordingly, this analysis utilises the TPLP to determine dual variable values (shadow prices) for a study area in Dublin, Ireland. The approach determines the pattern of relative location advantage for the peak and off-peak travel periods and for public and private transport for 1991 and 2001. The results are set against the expected results for hypothetical urban structures. The results show that the pattern of relative location advantage has altered sharply over the study period for off-peak trip-making but has remained more or less the same for trip-making in the peak period. For the off-peak period, the pattern of relative location advantage has shifted from the central area to the periphery specifically for private transport trips; for public transport, the pattern has remained focused on the city centre. This indicates that private transport users can react more quickly to changes in the distribution of land-use activities than their public transport counterparts due to the relatively fixed nature of the latter mode. This implies that the public transport network needs to be reorganized to better reflect the revised pattern of trip-making specifically for the off-peak period. The results demonstrate the value of using the approach for providing information about the spatial organisation of land uses within cities and where future development may be targeted.