Determinants of the property damage costs of bulk barge accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, cargo, and other-property damage costs of bulk barge accidents in US inland waterways. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, in bulk barge accidents: (1) vessel damage cost is greater for collision, fire/explosion, and material/equipment failure accidents than for groundings; (2) cargo damage cost is greater at night and when the weather is foggy and increases with barge age; and (3) otherproperty damage cost is greater for multi-vessel accidents, but decreases with barge size. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $1.38, while a dollar of cargo damage cost increases this cost by $6.90. An important result for formulating bulk barge accident cost-reduction policies is that a given determinant might have a negative effect on one type of damage cost but a positive effect on another.     

The safety of ferries: an accident injury perspective

This study investigates determinants of fatal and non-fatal injuries in ferry vessel accidents. Poisson regression estimates indicate that fatal and non-fatal injuries are 3.35 and 4.46% higher for fire/explosion than for material/equipment failure or grounding accidents, and 3.13 and 3.38% higher for multi-vessel than for single-vessel accidents. Non-fatal injuries are higher when the weather is foggy but less at night and the older the ferry. Estimated marginal effects indicate that every 100 fire/explosion accidents result in 6.1 fatal injuries, while each fire/explosion accident results in approximately one non-fatal injury.     

The safety of ferries: an accident injury perspective

This study investigates determinants of fatal and non-fatal injuries in ferry vessel accidents. Poisson regression estimates indicate that fatal and non-fatal injuries are 3.35 and 4.46% higher for fire/explosion than for material/equipment failure or grounding accidents, and 3.13 and 3.38% higher for multi-vessel than for single-vessel accidents. Non-fatal injuries are higher when the weather is foggy but less at night and the older the ferry. Estimated marginal effects indicate that every 100 fire/explosion accidents result in 6.1 fatal injuries, while each fire/explosion accident results in approximately one non-fatal injury.     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

Determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of passenger vessel accidents that were investigated by the US Coast Guard for the years 1991-2001. Negative binomial and Poisson regression estimates suggest that: (1) passenger-freight combination vessel accidents incur greater injuries than other types of passenger vessels, (2) deaths are greater when precipitation weather and poor visibility exist and (3) missing occupants are greater for capsize accidents and larger the vessel. The damage cost per vessel gross ton is less for ocean cruise and steel-hulled vessels. The major conclusion of the study is that human (as opposed to environmental and vessel) causes of passenger vessel accidents result in increases in the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants.     

Determinants of crew injuries in vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of non-fatal crew injuries, fatal crew injuries and missing crew in freight ship, tanker and tugboat vessel accidents based upon individual accidents investigated by the US Coast Guard for the 1991–2001 period. Poisson and negative binomial regression estimates suggest that: (1) freight ship and tanker non-fatal injuries are higher when the vessel is moored or docked and during high winds and cold temperatures; (2) tugboat non-fatal injuries are higher during poor visibility; (3) freight ship fatal injuries increase with vessel age and tanker and tugboat fatal injuries are higher for fire and capsize accidents, respectively; and (4) freight ship missing crew increase with vessel age and tugboat missing crew are higher for fire and lake accidents.     

Determinants of crew injuries in vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of non-fatal crew injuries, fatal crew injuries and missing crew in freight ship, tanker and tugboat vessel accidents based upon individual accidents investigated by the US Coast Guard for the 1991-2001 period. Poisson and negative binomial regression estimates suggest that: (1) freight ship and tanker non-fatal injuries are higher when the vessel is moored or docked and during high winds and cold temperatures; (2) tugboat non-fatal injuries are higher during poor visibility; (3) freight ship fatal injuries increase with vessel age and tanker and tugboat fatal injuries are higher for fire and capsize accidents, respectively; and (4) freight ship missing crew increase with vessel age and tugboat missing crew are higher for fire and lake accidents.     

On the time for the abandonment of flooded passenger ships due to collision damages

The time dependency of the survivability of passenger ships in flooding accidents leading to ship’s loss is shown to be confined within short times after the flooding initiation. RoRo ferry and cruise type ships demonstrate similar behaviour, though vessel types differ with respect to the subdivision and the flooding process. The presented research is based on numerical simulations of the flooding of two sample passenger ships in collision damages and the estimation of the probability to capsize. The systematic fast character of capsize events is shown to be primarily a consequence of the extent of hull breaches. The IMO regulatory concept for orderly abandonment of damaged passenger ships, in addition to the safe return to port regulatory provisions, are discussed in view of the present results. The timely onboard damage identification by ship’s master and the enhancement of the SOLAS survivability requirements for passenger ships appear to be the most effective operational and design measures leading to improved survivability of the ship and to enhanced safety of people onboard.     

Casualty analysis of large tankers

This article presents detailed results of a comprehensive analysis of recorded accidents of large oil tankers (deadweight greater than 80 000 tonnes) occurring between 1978 and 2003. The analysis encompasses a thorough review of available raw accident data and their postprocessing in a way to produce appropriate statistics useful for the implementation of risk-based assessment methodologies. The processing of the captured data led to the identification of significant qualitative historical trends of tanker accidents and of quantitative characteristics of large tanker accidents, such as overall accident rates per ship-year. Data were also analyzed for all major accident categories separately, taking into account tanker ship size/type, the degree of accident severity, and the oil spill tonne rates per ship-year; this led to the identification of heavily polluted worldwide geographical areas as a result of large tanker accidents.     

E·F船机舱事故统计与分析

以控制船舶机舱事故为目的,以E·F船机舱事故为对象,采取对主要事故进行分析及1年事故数据调查统计的方法,分析在机舱安全事故中,严重伤害、轻微伤害和没有伤害之间的比例关系,探讨事故发生频率与伤害严重程度之间的普遍规律,提出降低机舱安全事故的策略。     

关于修正《国际海上避碰规则》渔船条款的研究

针对渔船事故高发现象,从国际海上避碰规则不适应渔船的反向思维模式进行剖析,并建立渔船失误模型,建议在《国际海上避碰规则》第6次修订中从渔船角度出发修正渔船相关法规,从而降低船舶安全事故。     

Configuration estimation method for preliminary cost of ships based on engineering bills of materials

Ships are complex engineering structures that are designed and built on the basis of technical experience. A shipowner will often be required to estimate the price of a new ship on the basis of the value of comparable ships identified in trade journals. Similarly, shipbuilders are often interested in estimating approximate costs during the tendering phase in order to determine whether a ship is likely to be competitive for a particular order. Thus, when designing a ship prior to having obtained a contract, one of the most important processes is the estimation of approximate costs, including materials, associated labor, and overhead. During this preliminary design phase, the design is temporary and subject to change based on variations in the shipowner’s requirements. Hence, quick and flexible responses are key during this period and an integral aspect of the competitive powers of the shipbuilder. Given this environment, we propose a “configuration estimation method.” Our method is based on the configuration design method that is widely used in three-dimensional (3D) computer aided design (CAD) systems. We assume that a product lifecycle management system is furnished and that the cost is then estimated via the configuration of the ship, using an engineering bill of materials (E-BOM). In referring to the E-BOM, we utilize technical parametric costs derived from similar ships built previously. Using the proposed method, it is possible to obtain an accurate list of materials from the quotation, as well as a detailed work assessment for labor costs and overhead rates, so that reliable cost estimates can be generated quickly and flexibly. To demonstrate the practical applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method, we implement the prototype of a shipbuilding configuration estimation system by using a Microsoft Structured Query Language database and an E-BOM from AVEVA Marine version 12.01, which is a representative CAD system for shipbuilding.     

货运技术与海损事故

本文结合稳性不足与倾覆沉船事故、大型散货船强度不足与船体毁损事故、货堆倒塌移动与倾斜倾覆事故、湿货渗水流动与倾斜倾覆事故、甲板货装载不当与船体损伤及倾覆沉船事故、“危险货物”装运不当与船毁人伤及水域污染事故等六个突出问题,系统地阐明了货运技术与海损事故的因果关系,并提出相应预防措施,以供广大航运工作者借鉴,从而达到避免或减少海上事故的目的     

集装箱船载化学品事故应急现状及对策—“达飞费德里奥”轮事故应急行动引发的思考

集装箱船舶运输迅猛发展的同时，涉及集装箱危险货物运输的事故也逐年增多，危险化学品本身性质复杂，且变化迅速，险情分析比较复杂，险情等级较难确定，给船员人命安全和海洋环境造成重大威胁。文中结合一船载集装箱危险品事故的应急处理，剖析当前化学品事故应急过程中存在的问题，并提出了相应的建议。     

解析一起碰撞事故"第三者"的责任

本文通过对一起碰撞事故的经过及原因分析,依据相关法律规定,阐述了事故方存在的相互关系的相应责任,并提出了横越过程中的汽渡船舶应作为碰撞事故"第三者"必须承担的责任,也针对目前汽渡船的航行现状提出了安全管理建议。     

烟大铁路轮渡渡船主柴油机选型分析

烟大铁路轮渡项目是我国沿海铁路通道的重要组成部分.渡船为我国首次采用电力推进的滚装船铁路轮,柴油发电机组是渡船动力装置的核心.它的选型关系到船舶的初投资和营运的经济性.本文简述了柴油机选型原则、渡船电站功率的计算、渡船柴油机装配功计算、渡船柴油机选配方案.通过柴油机装机功率选配方案分析比较,渡船柴油机装机功率按12000kW方案选择是合理的.     

Accident precursors and safety nets: leading indicators of tanker operations safety

Leading indicators, one type of accident precursor, are conditions, events or measures that precede an undesirable event and that have some value in predicting the arrival of the event, whether it is an accident, incident, near miss, or undesirable safety state. Leading indicators are associated with proactive activities that identify hazards and assess, eliminate, minimize and control risk. An empirical analysis of leading indicators of safety for an international energy transportation company was undertaken, utilizing a previously validated research model. Quantitative safety performance and qualitative safety culture data were obtained from 943 participants on 37 vessels from three fleets in the organization. Organizational, vessel and individual safety factors and leading indicators were identified and an analysis of fleet, vessel, and individual safety cultures was undertaken. The results indicate that individual and vessel-level leading indicators can provide important input to an organization's continuous safety measuring and monitoring systems.     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

舰船装备使用维修费的GM估算研究

灰色理论对舰船装备使用维修费用的分析与估算有其特定优势,依据灰色系统理论与方法,建立灰色理论模型,分析和估算舰船装备使用维修费用,弄清舰船装备使用保障阶段费用发生规律,从而使装备全寿命费用的估算更加真实合理化。