Numerical study of ice-induced loads on ship hulls

A numerical model is introduced in this paper to investigate both global and local ice loads on ship hulls. This model is partly based on empirical data, by which the observed phenomena of continuous icebreaking can be well reproduced. In the simulation of a full-scale icebreaking trial, the interdependence between the ice load and the ship’s motion is considered, and the three degree-of-freedom rigid body equations of surge, sway and yaw are solved by numerical integration. The variations in the level ice thickness and in the strength properties of ice can also be taken into account. The simulated ice loads on ship hulls are discussed through two case studies, in which the ship’s performance, the statistics of ice-induced frame loads, and the spatial distribution of ice loads around the hull are analyzed and compared with field measurements. As far as we know the present paper is the first to integrate all the features above. It is hoped that further studies on this numerical model can supplement the field and laboratory measurements in establishing a design basis for the ice-going ships especially for ships navigating in the first-year ice.     

Errors in dynamical fields inferred from oceanographic cruise data: Part I. The impact of observation errors and the sampling distribution

Diagnostic studies of ocean dynamics based on the analysis of oceanographic cruise data are usually quite sensitive to observation errors, to the station distribution and to the synopticity of the sampling. Here we present an error analysis of the first two sources. The third one is evaluated in Part II of this work (J. Mar. Sys. (2005), this issue). For observed variables and those linearly related to them, we use the Optimal Statistical Interpolation (OI) formulation. For variables which are not linearly related to observed variables (e.g., the vertical velocity), we carry out numerical experiments in a consistent way with OI statistics. Best results are obtained when some kind of scale selection or spatial filtering is applied in order to suppress small scales that cannot be properly resolved by the station distribution.The formulation is first applied to a high resolution (SeaSoar) sampling aimed to the recovery of mesoscale features in a region of large spatial variability (noise-to-signal fraction of the order of 0.002). Fractional errors (rms error divided by the standard deviation of the field) are estimated in about 2% for dynamic height and between 4% and 20% for geostrophic vorticity and vertical velocity. For observed variables, observation errors and sampling limitations are shown to contribute in similar amounts to total errors. For derived variables, sampling errors are by far the dominant contribution. For less dense samplings (e.g., equally spaced CTD stations), fractional errors are about 6% for dynamic height and between 15% and 30% for geostrophic vorticity and vertical velocity. For this sampling strategy, errors of all variables are mostly associated with sampling limitations.     

混响室场均匀性数值仿真与验证

建立了一个实际混响室的三维电磁模型,采用有限元数值方法对混响室内的电磁场分布进行了求解,并运用统计方法对电磁场数据进行处理,获取了相关系数和标准偏差等场均匀性统计信息.搅拌器是影响混响室场均匀性参数的重要部件,本文对于不同几何外形、回转半径和数量的搅拌器的混响室电磁场分布进行了数字仿真,并对比分析了搅拌器参数对于相关系数和标准偏差等统计信息的影响效果.为了验证仿真结果的准确性,本文将数值仿真结果与实际混响室的测试数据进行了对比,包括电磁场分布和场均匀性统计参数两方面,发现二者比较一致,仿真计算准确度高.     

A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints. Part 1: data base and stochastic modelling

The present paper presents the necessary crack growth statistics and suggests stochastic models for a reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded steel plate joints. The reliability levels are derived from extensive testing with fillet-welded joints for which the entire crack growth history has been measured, not only the final fatigue life. The statistics for the time to reach given crack depths are determined. Fracture-mechanics-derived crack growth curves are fitted to the measured experimental curves and the best fit defines the growth parameters involved for each test specimen. The derived statistics and distribution function for these parameters are used as variables in a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In addition a Markov model is developed as an alternative stochastic model. It is a Markov chain for which the discrete damage states are related to chosen crack depths in the material. This model works directly with the experimental time statistics. It is a “stochastic bulk approach” not involving any random variables or fracture mechanics modeling. Both models are fitted to the data base and scaled to in-service conditions. Both methods are compared and discussed. The aim is to provide data for the variables used in a MCS and to develop a Markov chain for fast reliability calculation, especially when predicting the most likely influence of numerous future inspections.     

基于PLC的抽油机间抽控制系统

为改善油田抽油机系统的运行现状,结合低渗透油藏渗流规律,通过测量电动机的工作电流,确定不同产量油井间开周期．在此基础上,研制基于PLC间抽控制系统的硬件及软件系统,提出了采用星角双向切换加间抽控制的节能控制技术方案．现场试运行结果表明,该系统工作原理可行,功能设计实用,整机性能良好,解决了低产低效井能耗高、泵效低的问题,取得了较好效益．     

Are AIS-based trade volume estimates reliable? The case of crude oil exports

Most global trade statistics in the public domain refer to official customs data, which are not generally available on a micro (individual cargo) level. With the increasing availability and completeness of ship positioning data from the global Automated Identification System (AIS), it is possible to derive more timely and detailed trade statistics for homogeneous commodity groups. The objective of this article is twofold: (1) to compare the accuracy of AIS-derived trade statistics to official customs data in the crude oil market and (2) to add a breakdown of trade by vessel size over time. We find that while AIS-derived data for seaborne crude exports show good alignment with official export numbers in aggregate, there are substantial temporal and geographical differences across countries and time due to the use of pipelines and transshipment in parts of the supply chain. We highlight the challenges in properly structuring and aggregating micro-level cargo data. Our findings are important for the proper derivation of shipping demand from trade data.     

整治建筑物周边局部冲刷速率研究方法初探

通过统计大量整治建筑物外局部冲刷实测数据,分析冲刷发展规律,并结合半经验冲刷公式,拟合出符合本区域特点的局部冲刷公式,供相关设计人员参考.     

相位误差对信干比估计性能的影响

通过使用概率密度函数估计的方法,得出CDMA系统解扩后基带信号近似服从高斯分布。因此,CDMA系统信干比估计可以采用高斯白噪声条件下BPSK调制基带信号的信噪比估计方法。在此基础上,通过理论分析和计算机仿真,比较存在相位误差情况下三种信干比估计方法的性能。仿真结果表明,基于二阶矩和四阶矩的估计方法M2M4不受相位误差的影响,适合工程应用。     

基于动态水域网格计算的船舶领域研究

为了满足现代船舶的发展需求,结合船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据量巨大,包含了丰富的船舶信息等优点.本文利用SQL2012对AIS数据进行处理,建立包含船舶静态信息和动态信息的数据库;借助C#程序语言,构建以中心船舶为原点的网格坐标系,并以船舶间相对距离方位计算周围船舶在网格中的相对位置坐标;对同长度和类型的船舶进行网格叠加计算,并以船舶频数的方式进行统计,采用数据处理软件Matlab以最小二乘法的方式对统计结果进行处理;对研究水域的主要船型不同尺度的船舶领域进行对比和统计分析,并对不同船型船舶领域略作讨论,总结得出开阔水域船舶领域的特点.     

振荡来流下柔性立管涡激振动响应特性试验研究

在顶部浮体的带动下,悬链线立管的动力响应会诱发其周围产生相对来流,而这种振荡来流将激励立管悬垂段产生“间歇性”的涡激振动。文章在海洋工程水池中对不同最大约化速度URmax、KC数组合下的振荡来流作用下的柔性立管开展模型试验研究,利用光纤应变片测量模型的涡激振动响应。结合模态分析与小波变换对试验数据进行分析,讨论并总结了最大约化速度URmax以及KC数对涡激振动位移幅值响应特性的影响规律。文中进一步分析发现振荡来流下的涡激振动响应还存在“迟滞”及“高阶谐频”现象。     

Evolving the subspace of the three-dimensional multiscale ocean variability: Massachusetts Bay

A data and dynamics driven approach to estimate, decompose, organize and analyze the evolving three-dimensional variability of ocean fields is outlined. Variability refers here to the statistics of the differences between ocean states and a reference state. In general, these statistics evolve in time and space. For a first endeavor, the variability subspace defined by the dominant eigendecomposition of a normalized form of the variability covariance is evolved. A multiscale methodology for its initialization and forecast is outlined. It combines data and primitive equation dynamics within a Monte-Carlo approach.The methodology is applied to part of a multidisciplinary experiment that occurred in Massachusetts Bay in late summer and early fall of 1998. For a 4-day time period, the three-dimensional and multivariate properties of the variability standard deviations and dominant eigenvectors are studied. Two variability patterns are discussed in detail. One relates to a displacement of the Gulf of Maine coastal current offshore from Cape Ann, with the creation of adjacent mesoscale recirculation cells. The other relates to a Bay-wide coastal upwelling mode from Barnstable Harbor to Gloucester in response to strong southerly winds. Snapshots and tendencies of physical fields and trajectories of simulated Lagrangian drifters are employed to diagnose and illustrate the use of the dominant variability covariance. The variability subspace is shown to guide the dynamical analysis of the physical fields. For the stratified conditions, it is found that strong wind events can alter the structures of the buoyancy flow and that circulation features are more variable than previously described, on multiple scales. In several locations, the factors estimated to be important include some or all of the atmospheric and surface pressure forcings, and associated Ekman transports and downwelling/upwelling processes, the Coriolis force, the pressure force, inertia and mixing.     

中厚板高强钢冷热多丝复合埋弧焊热循环参数测量

为解决中厚板高强钢埋弧焊(Submerged Arc Welding, SAW)焊缝热影响区(Heat Affected Zone, HAZ)热循环参数准确测量难题，自主研制多通道热电偶测温软/硬件系统，测量并比较不同焊丝组合(单丝和冷热多丝复合)对应的焊缝HAZ热循环主要参数。试验结果表明：与单丝SAW工艺相比，冷热多丝复合SAW工艺可解决SAW较大热输入产生的焊缝HAZ脆化问题，提高焊缝组织性能和焊接质量；在中厚板高强钢焊接过程中，冷热多丝复合SAW工艺可为温度场数值模拟计算分析提供实测数据，为各种工艺参数的确定与优化、焊缝HAZ的组织性能改善提供必要的理论基础。     

联合作战复杂信息远程火力打击战法－原理

借助仿真、概率统计以及博弈分析的混合方法,通过对与复杂信息环境有关的不完全信息进行统计分析,构建了在复杂信息环境下全局最优的远程火力打击战法设计的理论模型,对该模型的初步研究表明：全局最优的远程火力打击战法比局部最优的远程火力打击战法更能满足复杂多变的战场需求,取得更好的战果。     

联合作战复杂信息远程火力打击战法-应用

借助仿真、概率统计以及博弈分析的混合方法,通过对与复杂信息环境有关的不完全信息进行统计分析,构建了在复杂信息环境下全局最优的远程火力打击战法设计的理论模型,对该模型的初步研究表明：全局最优的远程火力打击战法比局部最优的远程火力打击战法更能满足复杂多变的战场需求,取得更好的战果。     

港珠澳大桥建设对水沙环境影响数学模型研究—I. 模型的建立和验证

针对港珠澳大桥工程和其所在海区的特点,基于TK-2D软件建立了不规则三角形网格的伶仃洋内外海域大范围二维潮流泥沙数学模型和大桥工程区附近的小范围局部细化的二维潮流泥沙数学模型,根据现场实测资料对模型进行了充分的验证,分析了工程海区的潮流悬沙特征,为进一步论证港珠澳大桥建设方案对工程海区的影响奠定了基础。     

湖区风浪统计特性的研究

根据湖区的现场观测资料,利用数理统计和理论分析相结合的方法,探讨了湖区的波高和波周期的一元和二元联合分布,并给出了该湖区波浪的各种统计特征值,提出了波高、波周期和两者联合分布的经验分布模式。该公式为确定湖区风浪统计特征值提供依据和参考。     

基于LS-SVM的间断性需求备件预测

我国近年引进国外装备时间不长,其备件的历史数据较少、需求具有间断性且具有大量零值,给预测工作带来了一定的困难。文章提出应用最小二乘支持向量机（Least Squares Support Vector Machines LS-SVM）这一新的机器学习方法来实现间断性需求备件的预测,建立了舰艇间断性需求备件的预测模型,并对某型舰艇备件进行预测和分析,结果表明：LS-SVM在间断性需求备件预测上表现出优秀的学习和预测能力。     

原型观测试验下平均越浪量的计算公式

多种平均越浪量的计算公式均基于物模试验研究得到,而缺少现场原型越浪数据的验证。基于横沙东滩促淤圈围五期工程允许越浪原型观测试验项目,整理出可供研究的实测数据。运用图表统计、因子分析和无量纲化的方法,对Van der Meer公式和海堤工程设计规范公式所考虑的各类因素进行分析和比选,并对两公式分别做出评价。结果表明,Van der Meer公式计算值较实测值偏小,海堤工程设计规范公式计算值与实测值较为吻合,后者基本可以满足上海地区斜坡堤波浪正向入射情况下平均越浪量计算的需要。     

Short-term statistics of ice loads on ship bow frames in floe ice fields: Full-scale measurements in the Antarctic ocean

Ship operation and ice loading in floe ice fields have received considerable interest during recent years. There have been several numerical simulators developed by different institutes which can simulate ship navigation through floe ice fields and estimate ship performance and local ice loads. However, public data obtained from full-scale measurement covering comprehensively ship performance and ice loads under various ice thicknesses, concentrations and floe sizes are rare. The 2018/19 Antarctic voyage of the Polar Supply and Research Vessel (PSRV) S.A. Agulhas II gathered considerable data of the ship in floe ice fields under various thicknesses, concentrations, and floe sizes. The aim of this paper is to carry out statistical analysis to seek suitable probability distributions which adequately fit the measured ice load and therefore suitable to be used as parent distributions for long-term estimation. For this aim, three categories of probability distributions, namely standard distributions, truncated distributions and mixture distributions are tested. It is found that truncated distributions can fit the load data better than standard distributions bounded at the threshold. In addition, mixture distributions are shown to have promising features, which fit the data well and are able to separate distribution components. Subsequentially, the well-performed distributions are used as parent distributions to make long-term load estimations. The estimation results demonstrate that long-term estimations are sensitive to the selection of parent distribution, which addresses the importance of finding correct distribution to model short-term ice loads. The data of ten selected cases will be published for the use of other researchers.     

船舶轻围壁结构的间断焊和单面连续焊变形仿真

针对船舶上层建筑典型薄板轻围壁结构,对间断焊焊接方式和单面连续焊焊接方式进行有限元仿真。在相同的工艺参数下,对2种焊接方式对轻围壁结构焊接变形的影响进行对比。结果表明,2种焊接方式均使轻围壁结构自由边发生翘曲,与实际施工情况相符。依据焊接变形数据得出结论,间断焊有利于对轻围壁结构焊接变形的控制。