An expert system for air traffic flow management

An expert system for the air traffic flow management (ATFM) problem is presented. Two main prototypes have been constructed, one for timetable rescheduling that attempts to modify airline timetables to smooth traffic peaks at airports during rush-hours and another for centralized flow control that works to forecast the place, time and magnitude of the congestion and to propose mitigative actions. Simulations for the Brazilian ATFM, including the principal 14 airports, show the potential usefulness of the expert system.     

Design of an expert system for aircraft gate assignment

The task of assigning arriving flights at an airport to the available gates is a key activity in airline station operations. With the development of large connecting hub operations, and the resulting volumes of passengers and baggage transferring between flights, the complexity of the task and the number of factors to be considered have increased significantly. Traditional approaches utilizing classical operations research techniques have difficulty with uncertain information and multiple performance criteria, and do not adapt well to the needs of real-time operations support. As a result, several airlines have been exploring the use of expert systems for operational control of ramp activity.This paper discusses the factors that arise in deciding how to allocate flights to gates, and describes the knowledge base structure, data requirements and inference process of an expert system that would recommend gate allocation decisions to ramp control personnel, taking into account the constraints imposed by the available facilities and personnel to handle the aircraft, and the consequences on downstream operations of particular assignment decisions. The paper describes how these concepts have been implemented in a prototype expert system that has been designed to address a restricted set of gate assignment issues within a framework that could be extended to consider a broader range of factors. The operation of the expert system is illustrated through a case study application to a typical flight schedule at a major hub airport.     

Selection of expert system shells for traffic signal design

Although the use of expert systems (ESs) as a problem-solving tool is relatively new in the transportation profession, it has been recognized that a well-designed ES can contribute in areas where the knowledge domain requires an integration of expertise from various disciplines or is very complex and difficult to quantify. To minimize the effort involved in developing essential ES mechanisms, researchers often prefer to use ES shells which provide a standard inference procedure, knowledge representation, and a user-friendly design environment. However, commercial ES shells tend to be designed for only certain classes of problems, and are not as general and flexible as programming languages. More than 150 commercial ES shells are available in the microcomputer market. Most ES shells are usually claimed by their vendors to be usable for almost any conceivable applications, but such claims have often proved to be extravagant. Hence, the selection of an efficient yet costeffective commercial shell is one of the most critical tasks in ES development. In reviewing the vital task of ES shell selection, this paper presents our experience in evaluating more than 30 ES shells for developing an ES for signal design. The proposed ES includes signal settings, phasing plans, controllers, and detector locations.     

Validating the Passenger Traffic Model for Copenhagen

The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000–2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen Metro became operational in autumn 2002. We observed that forecasts from the demand sub-models agree well with the data from the 2000 national travel survey, with the mode choice forecasts in particular being a good match with the observed modal split. The results of the 2000 car assignment model matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10–50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade the model’s base trip matrices. Second, a dialog between researchers and the Ministry of Transport has been initiated to discuss the need to upgrade the Copenhagen model, e.g. a switching to an activity-based paradigm and improving assignment procedures.     

Validating the results of a route choice simulator

This paper describes the validation of a route choice simulator known as VLADIMIR (Variable Legend Assessment Device for Interactive Measurement of Individual Route choice). VLADIMIR is an interactive computer-based tool designed to study drivers’ route choice behaviour. It has been extensively used to obtain data on route choice in the presence of information sources such as Variable Message Signs or In-Car Navigation devices. The simulator uses a sequence of digitized photographs to portray a real network with junctions, links, landmarks and road signs. Subject drivers are invited to make journeys between specified origins and destinations under a range of travel scenarios, during which the simulator automatically records their route choices. This paper describes validation experiments carried out during the period Summer 1994 to Autumn 1995 and reports on the results obtained. Each experiment involved a comparison of routes selected in real life with those driven under simulated conditions in VLADIMIR. The analysis included investigation of the subjects’ own assessment of the realism of the VLADIMIR routes they had chosen, a comparison of models based on the real life routes with models based on VLADIMIR routes, and a statistical comparison of the two sets of routes. After an extensive series of data collection exercises and analyses, we have concluded that a well designed simulator is able to replicate real life route choices with a very high degree of detail and accuracy. Not only was VLADIMIR able to precisely replicate the route choices of drivers who were familiar with the network but it also appears capable of representing the kind of errors made and route choice strategies adopted by less familiar drivers. Furthermore, evidence is presented to suggest that it can accurately replicate route choice responses to roadside VMS information.     

船舶燃油系统使用低硫油的应对新措施

随着全球环境保护需求的不断提高,使得有关船舶硫化物排放的国际标准日益严格,从而导致船用低硫柴油的应用量正在逐渐增加。然而,目前大多数柴油机和燃油系统是针对传统燃油而设计的,由于低硫油的特殊性质,在使用低硫燃油过程中必然会产生一些问题。本文就低硫油的性质总结出了最新应对措施,确保了船舶的安全营运。     

Intermittent automatic train protection using an infrared system

Automatic train protection (ATP) is a vital part of the signalling system that prevents collisions between trains, especially on densely trafficked lines. Conventionally, ATP uses a transponder to communicate between an onboard train device and a trackside device. In Indonesia, ATP is not yet implemented and all trains are currently operated by drivers. It has now become a necessity to install ATP in Indonesia in order to protect train operations. However, as in many tropical and developing countries there are some environmental problems, especially heavy rain, as well as the theft of trackside equipment that influences performance. Installed trackside devices must therefore meet certain criteria such as low-cost configuration, minimalized devices on the track, ease of maintenance, etc. To address the necessity of ATP and to meet these criteria for trackside devices, we develop ATP using an infrared system. This type of ATP – the intermittent ATP system – consists of onboard devices and infrared sensors as trackside equipment. This approach to ATP offers a cost-effective solution and ensures the safety of train movements.     

专家意见可信度在混凝土结构裂缝诊断中的应用

通过不确定性量化方法,把不同专家意见表示成未确知有理数,专家意见合成转化为未确知有理数的运算,未确知有理数的运算具有公理化的理论基础,使合成结论的可信度具有理论上的依据。     

Implementation and test of a hybrid storage system on an electric urban bus

Customer acceptance of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) depends strongly on the performance of the Energy Storage System (ESS). Energy density, power density and lifetime of ESSs are three key parameters to be optimized in a BEV. For this purpose the use of a hybrid energy source on board of electric vehicles has been proposed and analyzed in literature. However, most of the previous studies have been limited to simulation or to test bench experiments of the ESS. This paper focuses on the implementation and use of the association of high energy NiCd battery and high power supercapacitors on board of a 3.5 t urban bus. An uncomplicated and efficient energy management strategy has been implemented and tested. The behavior of the vehicle has been investigated by experiment on a roller test bench for two different driving cycles, highlighting the effects of the hybridization: reduction of losses within the battery with consequent expected lifetime extension, improved dynamic of the vehicle and a possible driving range extension.     

A line-based skid mark segmentation system using image-processing methods

We developed a line-based skid mark segmentation and measurement system to solve issues related to randomness from pavement texture and measurement subjectivity at car accident scenes. The system was designed to operate along the longer straight lines that exist in boundaries between skid marks and pavement at the scene of an accident. The operational system consists of two processes: preprocessing and feature extraction. Preprocessing steps include skid mark positioning, slope angle detection, and segmentation, whereas feature extraction involves detecting light striations, striation segmentation, and calculating the widths of striations from images. Experimental validation and objective measurements illustrate that this system saves operation time and cost while performing with accuracy similar to that of manual methods.     

单线循环固定抱素器客运索道设计与使用中的若干问题

本详细叙述了对客运索道运载索用钢丝绳的技术要求及其合理的结构选型。同时介绍国外最近研制开发的紧密型钢丝绳的结构特点及其使用性能。根据运载索的受力状况,概述了优化运载索抗拉安全系数的必要性及其理论依据。为了正确计算固定抱索器绕过驱动轮和迂回轮时运载索在其进、出端形成的折角,首次导出能满足工程设计所需精度的计算公式。此外本还介绍了涉及单线循环式客运索道工艺设计的技术改进途径与措施。     

Study on the framework of hybrid collision warning system using loop detectors and vehicle information

Safety warning systems generally operate based on information from sensors attached to individual vehicles. Various types of data used for collision risk calculation can be categorized into two types, microscopic or macroscopic, depending on how the sensors collect the information of traffic state. Most collision warning systems use only either of these types of data, but they all have limitations imposed by the data, such as requirement of high installation cost and high market penetration rate of devices. In order to overcome these limits, we propose a collision warning system that utilizes the integrated information of macroscopic data and microscopic data, from loop detectors and smartphones respectively. The proposed system is evaluated by simulating a real vehicle trip based on the NGSIM data. We compare the results against collision warning systems based on macroscopic data from infrastructure and microscopic data from Vehicle-to-Vehicle information. The analysis of three systems shows two findings that (a) ICWS (Infrastructure-based Collision Warning System) is inadequate for immediate collision warning system and (b) VCWS (V2V communication based Collision Warning System) and HCWS (Hybrid Collision Warning System) produce collision warning at very similar timing, even with different behavior of individual drivers. Advantages of HCWS are that it can be directly applied to existing system with small additional cost, because data of loop detector are already available to be used in Korea and smartphones are widely spread. Also, the computation power distributed to each individual smartphone greatly increases the efficiency of the system by distributing the computation resources and load.     

Production and analysis of coordination plans using a geographic information system

The TRANSYT program is one of the most extensively used programs for the production of signal coordination plans. The impediments to the development of signal coordination plans are associated with data collection and data input. GIS offers a natural solution to these problems. This paper presents the SIGTRAF system, which uses GIS-T technology for the production of coordination plans using TRANSYT. This system is able to extract topological information from the GIS-T, thus simplifying the process of coding TRANSYT models. A case study was performed, providing insight on how the GIS-T’s thematic mapping capabilities can be used to visually compare different timing plans.     

Increasing the accuracy of loop detector counts using adaptive neural fuzzy inference system and genetic programming

Loop detectors are devices that are most commonly used for obtaining data at intersections. Multiple detectors are usually required to monitor a location, and this reduces the accuracy of detectors for collecting traffic volumes. The purpose of this paper is to increase the accuracy of loop detector counts using Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Genetic Programming (GP) based on detector volume and occupancy. These methods do not need microscopic analysis and are easy to employ. Four approaches for one intersection are used in a case study. Results show that the models can improve intersection detector counts significantly. Results also show that ANFIS produces more accurate counts compared to regression and GP.     

Tracking a system of shared autonomous vehicles across the Austin,Texas network using agent-based simulation

This study provides a large-scale micro-simulation of transportation patterns in a metropolitan area when relying on a system of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs). The six-county region of Austin, Texas is used for its land development patterns, demographics, networks, and trip tables. The agent-based MATSim toolkit allows modelers to track individual travelers and individual vehicles, with great temporal and spatial detail. MATSim’s algorithms help improve individual travel plans (by changing tour and trip start times, destinations, modes, and routes). Here, the SAV mode requests were simulated through a stochastic process for four possible fare levels: $0.50, $0.75, $1, and $1.25 per trip-mile. These fares resulted in mode splits of 50.9, 12.9, 10.5, and 9.2% of the region’s person-trips, respectively. Mode choice results show longer-distance travelers preferring SAVs to private, human-driven vehicles (HVs)—thanks to the reduced burden of SAV travel (since one does not have to drive the vehicle). For travelers whose households do not own an HV, SAVs (rather than transit, walking and biking) appear preferable for trips under 10 miles, which is the majority of those travelers’ trip-making. It may be difficult for traditional transit services and operators to survive once SAVs become available in regions like Austin, where dedicated rail lines and bus lanes are few. Simulation of SAV fleet operations suggest that higher fare rates allow for greater vehicle replacement (ranging from 5.6 to 7.7 HVs per SAV, assuming that the average SAV serves 17–20 person-trips per day); when fares rise, travel demands shift away from longer trip distances. Empty vehicle miles traveled by the fleet of SAVs ranged from 7.8 to 14.2%, across the scenarios in this study. Implications of mobility and sustainability benefits of SAVs are also discussed in the paper.     

Analysis of a cooperative variable speed limit system using microscopic traffic simulation

Variable speed limit systems where variable message signs are used to show speed limits adjusted to the prevailing road or traffic conditions are installed on motorways in many countries. The objectives of variable speed limit system installations are often to decrease the number of accidents and to increase traffic efficiency. Currently, there is an interest in exploring the potential of cooperative intelligent transport systems including communication between vehicles and/or vehicles and the infrastructure. In this paper, we study the potential benefits of introducing infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits in variable speed limit systems. We do this by proposing a cooperative variable speed limit system as an extension of an existing variable speed limit system. In the proposed system, communication between the infrastructure and the vehicles is used to transmit variable speed limits to upstream vehicles before the variable message signs become visible to the drivers. The system is evaluated by the means of microscopic traffic simulation. Traffic efficiency and environmental effects are considered in the analysis. The results of the study show benefits of the infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits for variable speed limit systems in the form of lower acceleration rates and thereby harmonized traffic flow and reduced exhaust emissions.     

Modeling the interaction between buses,passengers and cars on a bus route using a multi-agent system

This paper models part of a public transport network (PTN), specifically, a bus route, as a small-size multi-agent system (MAS). The proposed approach is applied to a case study considering a ‘real world’ bus line within the PTN in Auckland, New Zealand. The MAS-based analysis uses modeling and simulation to examine the characteristics of the observed system – autonomous agents interacting with one another – under different scenarios, considering bus capacity and frequency of service for existing and projected public transport (PT) demand. A simulation model of a bus route is developed, calibrated and validated. Several results are attained, such as when the PT passenger load is not close to bus capacity, this load has no effect on average passenger waiting time at bus stops. The model proposed can be useful to practitioners as a tool to model the interaction between buses and other agents.     

A test of the two-mode UMOT in the Netherlands

The UMOT model, presented as an alternative to conventional travel demand models, is critically examined for its feasibility to predict vehicle distance travelled and average daily traffic in The Netherlands. Using data from the National Travel Survey (OVG) 1978 a Dutch version of UMOT is developed, and an attempt is made to validate it on historical data from the period 1960 to 1980. Some comparisons are made with results of similar work using 1976 survey data in the UK by the Transport and Road Research Laboratory.     

Analysis of personal action space using a model system with multiple choice structures

The concept of heterogeneity in choice structure is applied in this study to examine individuals’ action space, which is defined in terms of the reported frequencies of visits. A disaggregate model system that predicts the frequency of visits is condensed using a nested logit model with multiple choice structures.