考虑不确定性因素的路径优化(英文)

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship’s master has been developed and is presented in this paper.The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship’s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration.Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods,such as Monte Carlo,first order reliability method(FORM) and second order reliability method(SORM),and a 3-D seakeeping code,including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL.The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN.Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.     

A simplified method for reliability- and integrity-based design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems

This paper presents a simplified method for the reliability- and the integrity-based optimal design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems. The design of structural systems is transitioning from the conventional methods, which are based on factors of safety, to more advanced methods, which require calculation of the failure probability of the designed system for each project. Using factors of safety to account for the uncertainties in the capacity (strength) or demands can lead to systems with different reliabilities. This is because the number and arrangement of components in each system and the correlation of their responses could be different, which could affect the system reliability. The generic factors of safety that are specified at the component level do not account for such differences. Still, using factors of safety, as a measure of system safety, is preferred by many engineers because of the simplicity in their application. The aim of this paper is to provide a simplified method for design of engineering systems that directly involves the system annual failure probability as a measure of system safety, concerning system strength limit state. In this method, using results of conventional deterministic analysis, the optimality factors for an integrity-based optimal design are used instead of generic safety factors to assure the system safety. The optimality factors, which estimate the necessary change in average component capacities, are computed especially for each component and a target system annual probability of system failure using regression models that estimate the effect of short and long term extreme events on structural response. Because in practice, it is convenient to use the return period as a measure to quantify the likelihood of extreme events, the regression model in this paper is a relationship between the component demands and the annual probability density function corresponding to every return period. This method accounts for the uncertainties in the environmental loads and structural capacities, and identifies the target mean capacity of each component for maximizing its integrity and meeting the reliability requirement. In addition, because various failure modes in a structural system can lead to different consequences (including damage costs), a method is introduced to compute optimality factors for designated failure modes. By calculating the probability of system failure, this method can be used for risk-based decision-making that considers the failure costs and consequences. The proposed method can also be used on existing structures to identify the riskiest components as part of inspection and improvement planning. The proposed method is discussed and illustrated considering offshore mooring systems. However, the method is general and applicable also to other engineering systems. In the case study of this paper, the method is first used to quantify the reliability of a mooring system, then this design is revised to meet the DNV recommended annual probability of failure and for maximizing system integrity as well as for a designated failure mode in which the anchor chains are the first components to fail in the system.     

考虑应变强化效应海底管道极限承载力研究

文章基于线性强化材料模型,推导了轴向拉力作用下海底管道极限弯矩承载力解析解,给出了海底管道在轴向拉力与弯矩载荷同时作用下的极限承载力的近似解,编制了海底管道极限承载力计算程序BCP。通过与实验结果的比对,验证了解析方法的正确性。结论表明考虑应变强化效应的海底管道极限承载力结算结果更为合理,该文可为海底管道的结构强度设计和安全性评价提供一定的参考依据。     

浮式钻井天车型升沉补偿系统摇摆装置设计方案优选

针对浮式钻井天车型升沉补偿系统钢丝绳摇摆装置设计方案选择问题,综合运用层次分析法、变异系数法、灰关联分析和TOPSIS法,研究浮式钻井天车型升沉补偿系统摇摆装置设计方案优选方法。运用层次分析法和变异系数法确定摇摆装置设计方案评价指标的主客观权重,再运用相对熵原理构建一种指标综合权重的计算模型。综合运用灰关联分析和TOPSIS法,建立一种基于相对熵加权-灰色TOPSIS的浮式钻井钻柱天车型升沉补偿系统摇摆装置设计方案优选方法。该优选法原理简单,使用方便,能够较好地解决浮式钻井天车型升沉补偿系统钢丝绳摇摆装置设计方案优选问题。     

考虑桩土非线性作用的近海风机高桩平台地震响应分析

分别建立全斜桩承台与全直桩承台三维有限元模型,研究了地震荷载作用下桩基的动力响应。考虑了地震引起的水体惯性力对动力响应的影响,并通过引入p-y曲线修正系数考虑了桩基倾斜对桩轴垂向桩土作用的影响。结果表明,在单桩的情况下,地震动水压力对桩基的弯矩与位移存在明显的放大效应;不同单桩的位移反应峰值发生在同一时刻,倾斜方向与峰值时刻地震加速度方向一致的桩承载性能最优。对于带承台的群桩,地震动水压力的放大效应没有单桩时明显,各个方位斜桩以及直桩之间弯矩与位移差异较小;直桩的位移峰值大于斜桩,而斜桩弯矩均较直桩在泥面以下处有一定的减小,但在承台交界面处较直桩更大。     

一种新的海洋平台管节点应力评估方法

海洋工程焊接管节点受应力集中及复杂随机载荷的联合作用,容易发生疲劳破坏。为了提高焊接管节点结构疲劳寿命预测的准确性,文章以管壁厚方向上的一点作为疲劳评估点,提出了一种新的管节点结构应力计算方法。通过与国际上公开发表的疲劳试验数据进行比较,证明了文中方法应用于管节点结构的可行性及考虑壁厚方向应力梯度的有效性。基于数值计算,文中还提出了可用于T型管节点应力集中系数计算的参数公式,并对参数公式的精度进行了验证。     

海洋平台柴油发电机蓄电池选择分析

深海油气开发中,柴油发电机是海洋平台必备应急电源,其中蓄电池是启动过程中提供应急电源启动的关键设备。文章从蓄电池的基本性能,并结合某深海平台如何选用蓄电池及容量进行了阐述。     

基于近似约简的基因选择方法

为了对癌症等疾病分型、诊断及进行病理学研究,利用基因微阵列数据识别疾病相关基因.考虑到了基因微阵列数据是典型的矛盾决策系统,在证明矛盾系统在近似分布集上是协调的这一事实的基础上提出了一套近似分布约简理论,讨论了不同近似分布集上约简之间的关系,提出了基于近似约简的基因选择方法.使用两组真实的基因表达数据对所提出的方法进行了验证.实验结果表明,该方法能在保持分类能力的情况下降低特征基因集的相关性,从而显著地减少特征基因的数量.     

考虑谱跌的舰载设备冲击响应谱分析法

在舰载机械设备的水下非接触爆炸冲击响应评估和抗冲击设计中,由给定的基础输入运动直接计算,如Duhamel积分,得出的响应谱不能作为谱分析计算输人谱,实际输入谱必须考虑"谱跌"的影响.文中结合-多自由度系统的冲击响应谱分析计算,解释了"谱跌"产生的原理,给出了"谱跌"谱的具体建立方法;运用DDAM对一推进轴系进行了冲击响应计算,得出了各轴承支撑处的最大变形,并提出了考虑推进轴转速条件下的响应谱分析方法;为检验舰载设备的抗冲能力和抗冲设计提供一种途径.     

考虑水弹性影响的螺旋桨设计方法研究

船用螺旋桨工作在低速重负荷工况、或采用大侧斜几何型式或采用复合材料时,其流固耦合现象较为突出,螺旋桨设计中若无法准确考虑其间的水弹性影响,将会造成船机桨失配及实船推进性能的错误预报。文章基于螺旋桨环流理论设计方法、螺旋桨流固耦合算法以及逐步逼近法,形成了一套可考虑水弹性影响的螺旋桨设计方法,重点讨论了流固耦合中水动力载荷更新方式、逐步逼近法中预变形松弛因子的选择对设计结果的影响。通过大侧斜螺旋桨及复合材料螺旋桨设计实例,进一步阐述了在螺旋桨设计中考虑水弹性的必要性,也验证了所开发设计平台的有效性。该设计平台为后续复合材料螺旋桨的优化设计提供了基础。     

意大利威尼斯离岸深水港自动化集装箱码头结构选型

意大利威尼斯离岸深水港项目拟在外海建设现代化全自动集装箱港区,其关键技术之一是在深厚高压缩性土体且广泛存在极软弱泥炭夹层的极不均匀和复杂地质条件下,采用何种码头结构形式才能满足全自动化集装箱码头较高的使用要求。为此,对高桩码头+组合式桩基承台驳岸结构、重力式沉箱结构和全高桩(高桩码头+高桩堆场)结构3种方案进行综合比选,并利用有限元数值模拟分析,提出采用全高桩码头结构形式。该结构形式适合工程的地质条件和使用要求,技术成熟,风险小,且投资较低。     

海洋平台结构安全性评估方法集成技术

研究海洋钻井平台结构安全性评估程序集成技术,介绍集成系统的实现流程和功能模块。该系统是以Orient平台为基础开发的一套集成化仿真软件,实现包括前后处理的水动力性能预报和结构安全性分析过程。具有方便的使用界面、合理的输入输出接口、优良的计算结果实时显示和后处理功能,提供标准规范化的接口,使设计过程规范化和自动化,在设计阶段即可把握设计方案的综合性能,提高工作效率。     

海上码头群桩基础桩间距计算方法

海上码头群桩基础桩位布置密集,沉桩施工受环境影响因素大、定位易产生偏差、存在一定的碰桩风险。在设计过程中,往往为预留沉桩施工作业空间须进行桩体距离验算。以往采用的桩间距计算方法均有一定局限性,不能快速、准确地计算出桩基础中空间最短间距及产生位置,为桩身间距核算带来了困扰。通过解析几何的方法,研发出遍历法与线性盒约束法两套数学模型,可依据设计桩参数快速计算两桩之间最短间距以及产生最短间距的位置。为保障沉桩施工过程中桩体安全,利用该桩间距算法对含有各类桩型的群桩基础进行计算,结果精准、应用效果良好。     

基于生态环境影响的污水海洋离岸排放口选址研究

在综合大量已有研究成果及经验的基础上,对排海工程排污口选划的原则与方法进行分析,着重介绍了基于二维污染物扩散模型的水环境影响析法、生物损害分析法以及基于加权评分的工程技术经济分析法,并以曹妃甸某排海工程为例对排污口进行选划研究。结果表明:将综合考虑多种影响因素的选划方法应用于排污口的选划研究是可行的,且有利于排污口的环保、经济排放;同一工况条件下,对海洋生态环境影响起主要作用的因素为纳污海域的水动力情况以及生物资源分布情况。在排污口的选划过程中,应充分考虑各种影响因素,在经济条件允许的情况下,应尽可能地将排污口布置于水深较大、扩散条件较好、海洋生物稀疏、远离环境保护目标的地方。     

海洋钻机质量重心控制的重要性及方法

海洋平台钻机质量重心控制对于钻井平台设计、建造有着重要的意义,钻机质量重心控制的好坏直接决定着项目的成功与否。从海洋平台钻机质量重心控制的重要性、原则、方法、管理流程等方面进行系统的分析研究,并给出其在半潜式钻井平台和辅助钻井平台上钻机设计建造的应用实例。为后续海洋钻机设计建造提供指导和参考。     

基于模态曲率法的海洋平台结构损伤识别与定位研究

针对海洋平台结构特点,将海洋平台结构分为若干子结构,基于模态曲率法结合模态应变发展了一种适用于海洋平台结构的损伤识别与定位方法.为了验证该方法的可行性和有效性,以一典型导管架平台为数值算例,建立有限元损伤模型,分别进行了单构件损伤及多构件损伤时的识别效果研究.数值计算结果表明将模态曲率法和应变模态相结合进行海洋平台的损伤识别与定位是切实可行的.     

海上自升式平台动力分析方法研究(英文)

A jack-up platform,with its particular structure,showed obvious dynamic characteristics under complex environmental loads in extreme conditions.In this paper,taking a simplified 3-D finite element dynamic model in extreme storm conditions as research object,a transient dynamic analysis method was proposed,which was under both regular and irregular wave loads.The steps of dynamic analysis under extreme conditions were illustrated with an applied case,and the dynamic amplification factor(DAF) was calculated for each response parameter of base shear,overturning moment and hull sway.Finally,the structural response results of dynamic and static were compared and analyzed.The results indicated that the static strength analysis of the Jack-up Platforms was not enough under the dynamic loads including wave and current,further dynamic response analysis considering both computational efficiency and accuracy was necessary.     

考虑船位预测不确定性的船舶碰撞危险度计算方法

[目的]船舶碰撞是威胁智能船舶航行安全的主要因素。船舶碰撞危险度计算模型应及时发现船舶航行中潜在的碰撞风险,为智能船舶的自主避让决策提供依据。[方法]首先,根据船舶领域侵入程度与侵入时间等参数,分析基于领域的碰撞危险参数计算模型,将航行场景划分为单船会遇局面和本船与船舶群组的会遇局面,给出一种新的多船会遇情况下的碰撞危险参数计算模型;其次,基于维纳过程对船位预测不确定性进行建模,根据卡方分布获取船位预测不确定性椭圆;最后,给出考虑船位预测不确定性的碰撞危险参数计算方法。[结果]该计算模型能够考虑船位预测不确定性对船舶碰撞危险的影响。[结论]可以进一步保障智能船舶的海上航行安全。