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1.
A model is developed to describe and to predict the patterns of regional recreational travel. The model is designed in such a manner to allow its calibration and use without the need to conduct extensive travel surveys in a large region. To allow its use for prediction, the model is based on a causal structure and attempts to derive recreational travel demand from behavioural variables. The main hypothesis of the model is that the amount of recreational travel a recreation area attracts is affected by the accessibility of this area to points of demand potential and by its attractiveness relative to the recreation areas. The calibration is founded on actual data on recreational travel to national forests in California, U.S.A. It is found in the calibration that accessibility to demand potential is the single most important determinant of recreational travel attraction. A simple relationship is derived to relate travel to each national forest to the relative accessibility of the forest. The model is calibrated and statistically validated. It is suggested that when constructing travel demand models simplicity be sought, even at the risk of the loss of some explanatory power. In the calibration of such models statistical significant is more important than the ability to reproduce observed patterns. 相似文献
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This paper presents an estimation and analysis of ship exhaust emissions and their externalities in the popular cruise destinations of Dubrovnik (Croatia) and Kotor (Montenegro) along the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea. To this extent, the recent record (2012–2014) of cruise ships calling at these ports is used to model and estimate the ship exhaust emission inventories and externalities within the associated bays and ports.The results indicate that cruise ship traffic produces continuously increasing air pollution in both ports over recent years. More importantly, however, the analysis of the ship operating characteristics reveals that for any given ship traffic involving specific vessels using marine fuel of a given quality, the presence of other factors (e.g. berth availability, berth accessibility etc) can also influence the ship emission levels. This is particularly evident in the case of the port of Kotor where berth space insufficiency dictates the need for ship anchorage thus leading to increased air pollution and costs of associated damage.The application and results of the aforementioned ship activity-based methodology to the ports of Dubrovnik and Kotor improves our understanding of ship emissions in cruise bays and ports, and contributes toward the implementation of port policies for the effective control of air quality in such environmentally sensitive locations. 相似文献
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Some scholars consider that today’s market conditions are in favor of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) rather than the Suez Canal Route (SCR). However, the number of bulk carriers using the NSR remains extremely limited, despite higher fuel prices since 2009 and subsequent significant fuel savings. In 2013, there were 53 transits via the Arctic, out of which 27 by oil tankers and 6 by bulk carriers. In this article we show that this result might be attributable to a factor, which is not considered in most studies: the spot freight rate to fuel ratio which governs ship owners’ decisions regarding the sailing speed. Due to a low ratio since 2011, the speed of vessels on the SCR is at its lowest level, and potential NSR fuel savings are too limited to provide a viable alternative. We further argue that, contrary to most studies, internalizing NSR environmental benefits marginally improves the attractiveness of the NSR. 相似文献
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S. R. Tolofari 《运输规划与技术》2013,36(3-4):239-254
The pull of economic gravity on traditional tanker operators towards open registries has been caused primarily by the need to be cost‐competitive in a market which itself is competitive. By using transcendental logarithmic cost functions to model the cost structures of open and traditional tanker operations, this study highlights the general structure of the production technology of tanker services, the cost differentials between the two flag groupings and provides insights into the comparative statics effects of their production functions in the form of elasticities of factor substitution and demand, and scale economies. 相似文献
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In an effort to increase the operational efficiency of highways, South Korea has been increasing its design speed recently. However, the use of higher design speed will also increase construction costs. Moreover, increasing the design speed is expected to have an impact on safety. Hence, there is a strong need to demonstrate that the benefits outweigh the cost of having a higher design speed. This study surveyed a sample of design engineers to determine their awareness of the consequences of increasing design speed and their assessment of the right design speed for an actual rural arterial road. In addition to the survey, a case study of three recently upgraded highways was conducted to determine the changes in traffic volumes, speeds, travel times and accidents. The construction costs associated with the upgrades were also reported. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Alan C. McKinnon 《运输评论》2016,36(4):418-436
The paper challenges the conventional view that the movement of goods through supply chains must continue to accelerate. The compression of freight transit times has been one of the most enduring logistics trends but may not be compatible with governmental climate change policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60–80% by 2050. Opportunities for cutting CO2 emissions by ‘despeeding' are explored within a freight decarbonisation framework and split into three categories: direct, indirect and consequential. Discussion of the direct carbon savings focuses on the trucking and deep-sea container sectors, where there is clear evidence that slower operation cuts cost, energy and emissions and can be accommodated within current supply chain requirements. Indirect emission reductions could accrue from more localised sourcing and a relaxation of just-in-time (JIT) replenishment. Acceleration of logistical activities other than transport could offset increases in freight transit times, allowing the overall carbon intensity of supply chains to reduce with minimal loss of performance. Consequential deceleration results from other decarbonisation initiatives such as freight modal split and a shift to lower carbon fuels. Having reviewed evidence drawn from a broad range of sources, the paper concludes that freight deceleration is a promising decarbonisation option, but raises a number of important issues that will require new empirical research. 相似文献
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Container liner shipping companies only partially alter their shipping networks to cope with the changing demand, rather than entirely redesign and change the network. In view of the practice, this paper proposes an optimal container liner shipping network alteration problem based on an interesting idea of segment, which is a sequence of legs from a head port to a tail port that are visited by the same type of ship more than once in the existing shipping network. In segment-based network alteration, the segments are intact and each port is visited by the same type of ship and from the same previous ports. As a result, the designed network needs minimum modification before implementation. A mixed-integer linear programming model with a polynomial number of variables is developed for the proposed segmented-based liner shipping network alternation problem. The developed model is applied to an Asia–Europe–Oceania liner shipping network with a total of 46 ports and 11 ship routes. Results demonstrate that the problem could be solved efficiently and the optimized network reduces the total cost of the initial network considerably. 相似文献
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The problem of optimal container vessels deployment is one of great significance for the liner shipping industry. Although the pioneering work on this problem dates back to the early 1990s, only until recently have researchers started to acknowledge and account for the significant amount of uncertainty present in shipping demand in real world container shipping. In this paper, new analytical results are presented to further relax the input requirements for this problem. Specifically, only the mean and variance of the maximum shipping demand are required to be known. An optional symmetry assumption is shown to further reduce the feasible region and deployment cost for typical confidence levels. Moreover, unlike previous work that tends to ignore stochastic dependencies between the shipping demands on the various routes (that are known to exist in the real world), our models account for such dependencies in the most general setting to date. A salient feature of our modeling approach is that the exact dependence structure does not need to be specified, something that is hard, if not simply impossible, to determine in practice. A numerical case study is provided to illustrate the proposed models. 相似文献
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To curb emissions, containerized shipping lines face the traditional trade-off between cost and emissions (CO2 and SOx) reduction. This paper considers this element in the context of liner service design and proposes a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model based on a multi-commodity pickup and delivery arc-flow formulation. The objective is to maximize the profit by selecting the ports to be visited, the sequence of port visit, the cargo flows between ports, as well as the number/operating speeds of vessels on each arc of the selected route. The problem also considers that Emission Control Areas (ECAs) exist in the liner network and accounts for the vessel carrying capacity. In addition to using the MILP solver of CPLEX, we develop in the paper a specific genetic algorithm (GA) based heuristic and show that it gives the possibility to reach an optimal solution when solving large size instances. 相似文献
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Traffic safety,usability and streetscape effects of new design principles for major urban roads 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hartmut H. Topp 《Transportation》1989,16(4):297-310
An important aspect of area-wide traffic calming concepts is the integration of major urban roads, because 70 to 80 percent of all urban accidents occur on major roads. Traffic calming which is primarily based on the locational shift to such main thoroughfares is socially injust, because — in spite of all disturbances on those streets — about one quarter of the urban population live there. Social justice can only be somewhat achieved if the expenditures for traffic calming and streetscaping are not used — as today is most common — for accumulating the advantages in the low traffic side streets, but aimed at a partial balance and compensation for the strains caused by car traffic on the major streets. Some compensatory measures and new design principles will be discussed. Backgrounds are the experience in six German model cities of area-wide traffic calming, several research projects and the discussion about new guidelines for major urban roads. Where traffic and environmental burdens focus, the concentration concept should be extended by compensatory measures. That is the state of discussion in Germany examplified by nine topics.This is an edited version of a speech presented by the author at the International Conference Living and Moving in Cities in Paris, January 1990. 相似文献
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Hadi Ghaderi 《运输评论》2019,39(1):152-173
ABSTRACTThe maritime industry has been continuously transforming the nature of its business and striving to embrace technology in many aspects. In this context, autonomous technologies have been receiving momentum with a potential to revolutionise the landscape of shipping industry. After conducting a comprehensive literature review on the issues facing by the short sea shipping (SSS) industry, a model is developed to explore the potential savings of removing crew and use of autonomous technologies through a Continuously Unmanned Ship (CUS) that is operated by a Shore Control Centre (SCC). The analysis shows that autonomous technologies are viable to the challenges that the shipping industry is facing in terms of crew costs and skill shortage. To validate this statement, a case study is selected and various scenarios were tested based on relevant operational and financial considerations, including crew arrangement, cargo utilisation levels and shore wage coefficients. The results suggest that the savings occur in demand-uncertain markets and where a network of vessels are operated via a control centre. While autonomous technology use in shipping holds promise, there remain several limitations that this research addresses in terms of implementation, commercial attractiveness, risk profile, legislative, workforce planning and port operations. 相似文献
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Chun-Hsiung Liao Po-Hsing Tseng Chin-Shan Lu 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2009,14(7):493-496
This paper examines carbon dioxide emissions of truck-only transportation using activity-based emission modelling and compares those with intermodal coastal shipping and truck movements. The results reveal that replacing long-haul truck transport with the intermodal can significantly reduce carbon dioxide emission significantly because of the efficiency of maritime fuel. 相似文献
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Shipping has traditionally been viewed as the least environmentally damaging mode of freight transport. Recent studies have increasingly questioned this perception, as attention has focused on both the greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2) and the emission of health-damaging pollutants (such as sulphur, nitrogen oxides and particulates) by ships. This paper reviews the available evidence on the atmospheric emissions of shipping. It proposes that the profit objective has prompted the pursuit of greater fuel efficiency within the sector, but that reliance on market forces alone is insufficient to deliver on the environmental imperative. The paper outlines the current and planned regulatory regime for the atmospheric emissions from ships and posits that greater, and more diverse, market regulation is required. Alternative general approaches to regulatory compliance are categorised as ‘alternative sources of energy’ or ‘abatement technologies’ and the characteristics of a range of specific options are analysed. The paper concludes that although the shipping industry has been slow to improve its environmental credentials, a combination of regulation and technological innovation provides it with significant potential to dramatically reduce its environmental impact. 相似文献
18.
文章结合广西实际,从多个不同的视角审视西江,提出加大西江航运建设力度、创新管理,把西江打造成为推动广西社会经济更好更快发展的新引擎的建议. 相似文献
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文章针对广西南宁大桥主桥下部结构初步施工方案,结合现场施工条件,因地制宜地提出了大桥主墩基施工的优化方案,并通过与原施工方案对比及安全论证,验证了该优化方案的合理性。 相似文献
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From hierarchy to networking: the evolution of the “twenty-first-century Maritime Silk Road” container shipping system 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
ABSTRACTContainer shipping gives a rise of international trade since the 1960s. Based on navigation data start from the mid-1990s to 2016, this paper empirically analyses the spatial pattern of China’s international maritime linkages along the “twenty-first-century Maritime Silk Road”. We interpret such evolutionary dynamics in terms of growth, hierarchical diffusion and networking phases. Networking is a new stage of the evolution of the port system, which is approached based on the graph theory, complex network methods and geomatics, the paper discusses the networking’s basic characteristics: multi-hub spatial agglomeration, the connection of the network develops across space, functional differentiation and a division of labour appear among ports. Our results show that, while the scope of China’s maritime linkages had expanded overtime, more foreign ports become connected to the “Maritime Silk Road”. In addition, the external linkages of domestic ports tend to be dispersed, reflecting upon the decline of Pearl River Delta ports and the rise of Yangtze River Delta ports, with mixed evidence for the Bohai Rim region. Lastly, the analysis underlines the emergence of a polycentric shipping system, from the Hong Kong dominance to the more diversified Shanghai/Ningbo/Shenzhen configuration. Academic and managerial implications are included. 相似文献