Failure rates and data driven policies for vehicle safety inspections in Pennsylvania

Rail, truck, commercial bus, and aircraft have federally mandated safety inspection programs in the United States, while inspections of personal vehicles, which make up the majority of passenger miles, are optionally imposed at the state level. In recent years, some states have chosen to eliminate the vehicle safety inspection program because of budget constraints and concerns about program effectiveness. Currently, 26 states have a schedule for conducting safety inspections, but Pennsylvania is one of thirteen states that currently require all personal light duty vehicles to be inspected every year. The remaining states have completely eliminated safety inspection programs. However, as automobiles become safer, Pennsylvania legislators are now pushing to phase out the inspection program to reduce the costs of owning a vehicle. This study combines Pennsylvania vehicle registration data with two large samples of results from state safety inspections. We find that the state safety inspection fail rate for light-duty vehicles is 12–18%, well above the often-cited rate of 2%. Vehicles that are older than three years old or have more than about 30,000 miles can have much higher rates. When analyzing new vehicles, less than or equal to one year old, it is found that even these vehicles have a failure rate greater than zero. Furthermore, while the vehicle fleet appears to be getting safer over the past few years by improvements in technology or other external circumstances, the inspection failure rate does not appear to be trending toward zero in the near future. We also show that accurate inspection data is limited and often incorrectly analyzed. Lastly, the importance of vehicle maintenance over a vehicle’s lifetime is proven to be evident, since regular usage causes vehicles to deteriorate. We conclude that vehicle safety inspections should continue to be implemented in order to keep driving conditions safe.     

An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction

The French government has implemented a periodical vehicle inspection program, which aims at maintaining proper functioning of the vehicle and ensuring the emissions control systems installed on the vehicle work properly. Also, an incentive program for scrapping old vehicles was introduced in 1994 through 1996 to promote the replacement of those vehicles with higher emissions by newer vehicles with lower emissions. A hazard-based duration model of household vehicle transaction behavior has been developed in this study to examine the effects of the inspection program and the grant for scrappage on vehicle transaction timing. The model is developed as a competing risks model assuming the following three types of competing risks: replacing one of the vehicles in the household fleet, disposing of one vehicle in the fleet, and acquiring one vehicle to add to the fleet. The empirical analysis is carried out using the panel data of French households' vehicle ownership from 1984 to 1998, obtained by the panel survey called Parc-Auto, which has been conducted by a French marketing firm, SOFRES, since 1976. The long panel observation period facilitates the introduction of macro-economic indicators into the model, enabling the analysis to distinguish the effects of policy measures from macro-economic factors. The empirical results indicate that the expected vehicle holding duration becomes 1.3 years longer under the inspection program than before the program commenced, given that the vehicle is replaced by another vehicle at the end of the holding duration; and that the conditional probability of replacing a vehicle aged 10 years and over becomes 1.2 times higher, and the average holding duration becomes shorter by 3.3 years, when the grant for scrappage is available.     

The impact of private autonomous vehicles on vehicle ownership and unoccupied VMT generation

With 36 ventures testing autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the State of California, commercial deployment of this disruptive technology is almost around the corner (California Department of Transportation, 2016). Different business models of AVs, including Shared AVs (SAVs) and Private AVs (PAVs), will lead to significantly different changes in regional vehicle inventory and Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT). Most prior studies have already explored the impact of SAVs on vehicle ownership and VMT generation. Limited understanding has been gained regarding vehicle ownership reduction and unoccupied VMT generation potentials in the era of PAVs. Motivated by such research gap, this study develops models to examine how much vehicle ownership reduction can be achieved once private conventional vehicles are replaced by AVs and the spatial distribution of unoccupied VMT accompanied with the vehicle reduction. The models are implemented using travel survey and synthesized trip profile from Atlanta Metropolitan Area. The results show that more than 18% of the households can reduce vehicles, while maintaining the current travel patterns. This can be translated into a 9.5% reduction in private vehicles in the study region. Meanwhile, 29.8 unoccupied VMT will be induced per day per reduced vehicles. A majority of the unoccupied VMT will be loaded on interstate highways and expressways and the largest percentage inflation in VMT will occur on minor local roads. The results can provide implications for evolving trends in household vehicles uses and the location of dedicated AV lanes in the PAV dominated future.     

Marginal costs of freeway traffic congestion with on-road pollution exposure externality

The health cost of on-road air pollution exposure is a component of traffic marginal costs that has not previously been assessed. The main objective of this paper is to introduce on-road pollution exposure as an externality of traffic, particularly important during traffic congestion when on-road pollution exposure is highest. Marginal private and external cost equations are developed that include on-road pollution exposure in addition to time, fuel, and pollution emissions components. The marginal external cost of on-road exposure includes terms for the marginal vehicle’s emissions, the increased emissions from all vehicles caused by additional congestion from the marginal vehicle, and the additional exposure duration for all travelers caused by additional congestion from the marginal vehicle. A sensitivity analysis shows that on-road pollution exposure can be a large portion (18%) of marginal social costs of traffic flow near freeway capacity, ranging from 4% to 38% with different exposure parameters. In an optimal pricing scenario, excluding the on-road exposure externality can lead to 6% residual welfare loss because of sub-optimal tolls. While regional pollution generates greater costs in uncongested conditions, on-road exposure comes to dominate health costs on congested freeways because of increased duration and intensity of exposure. The estimated marginal cost and benefit curves indicate a theoretical preference for price controls to address the externality problem. The inclusion of on-road exposure costs reduces the magnitudes of projects required to cover implementation costs for intelligent transportation system (ITS) improvements; the net benefits of road-pricing ITS systems are increased more than the net benefits of ITS traffic flow improvements. When considering distinct vehicle classes, inclusion of on-road exposure costs greatly increases heavy-duty vehicle marginal costs because of their higher emissions rates and greater roadway capacity utilization. Lastly, there are large uncertainties associated with the parameters utilized in the estimation of health outcomes that are a function of travel pollution intensity and duration. More research is needed to develop on-road exposure modeling tools that link repeated short-duration exposure and health outcomes.     

The influence of e-carsharing schemes on electric vehicle adoption and carbon emissions: An emerging economy study

Moving toward sustainable mobility, the sharing economy business model emerges as a prominent practice that can contribute to the transition to sustainability. Using a system dynamics modeling approach, this paper investigates the impacts of an e-carsharing scheme in carbon emissions and in electric vehicle adoption. We study the VAMO scheme located in Fortaleza, Brazil, as the first e-carsharing scheme in the country. We study two policies combined: a VAMO planned growth policy and a retirement policy for conventional vehicles. Our results show that the VAMO incentive policy is an important factor to reduce emissions and to increase awareness of electric vehicles, highlighting the role of the government as an institutional entrepreneur, stimulating and sustaining the VAMO scheme. The retirement policy in combination with the VAMO incentive policy obtained the best results in our simulations, reducing 29% of CO₂ emissions and increasing 36% electric vehicle adoption, when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The main conclusions are that such e-carsharing schemes offer direct and indirect benefits to urban mobility (specially to electric vehicle adoption) and that they depend on how the government supports them.     

Vehicle reidentification and travel time measurement on congested freeways

The paper presents an algorithm for matching individual vehicles measured at a freeway detector with the vehicles’ corresponding measurements taken earlier at another detector located upstream. Although this algorithm is potentially compatible with many vehicle detector technologies, the paper illustrates the method using existing dual-loop detectors to measure vehicle lengths. This detector technology has seen widespread deployment for velocity measurement. Since the detectors were not developed to measure vehicle length, these measurements can include significant errors. To overcome this problem, the algorithm exploits drivers’ tendencies to retain their positions within dense platoons. The otherwise complicated task of vehicle reidentification is carried out by matching these platoons rather than individual vehicles. Of course once a vehicle has been matched across neighboring detector stations, the difference in its arrival time at each station defines the vehicle’s travel time on the intervening segment.Findings from an application of the algorithm over a 1/3 mile long segment are presented herein and they indicate that a sufficient number of vehicles can be matched for the purpose of traffic surveillance. As such, the algorithm extracts travel time data without requiring the deployment of new detector technologies. In addition to the immediate impacts on traffic monitoring, the work provides a means to quantify the potential benefits of emerging detector technologies that promise to extract more detailed information from individual vehicles.     

Vehicle restrictions and CO2 emissions in Beijing – A simple projection using available data

The Beijing Government launched a new policy on restricting vehicle ownership in late 2010 to regulate the faster motorization and the excessive vehicular carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. In this paper, we first analyzed this policy and its effect on private passenger vehicle population. The private passenger vehicle population in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 was predicted under three different scenarios: no constraint (NC), current constraint (CC) and tighter constraint (TC). Then the assessment of vehicular emissions reduction benefits was made on the basis of private passenger vehicle population, vehicle kilometers traveled and CO₂ emission factors. It was projected that the CO₂ emissions in 2020 will reach 23.90, 15.55 and 13.23 million tons under NC, CC and TC respectively. The policy is very effective in controlling the faster motorization and reducing CO₂ emissions.     

Optimal fleet conversion policy from a life cycle perspective

Vehicles typically deteriorate with accumulating mileage and emit more tailpipe air pollutants per mile. Although incentive programs for scrapping old, high-emitting vehicles have been implemented to reduce urban air pollutants and greenhouse gases, these policies may create additional sales of new vehicles as well. From a life cycle perspective, the emissions from both the additional vehicle production and scrapping need to be addressed when evaluating the benefits of scrapping older vehicles. This study explores an optimal fleet conversion policy based on mid-sized internal combustion engine vehicles in the US, defined as one that minimizes total life cycle emissions from the entire fleet of new and used vehicles. To describe vehicles' lifetime emission profiles as functions of accumulated mileage, a series of life cycle inventories characterizing environmental performance for vehicle production, use, and retirement was developed for each model year between 1981 and 2020. A simulation program is developed to investigate ideal and practical fleet conversion policies separately for three regulated pollutants (CO, NMHC, and NO_x) and for CO₂. According to the simulation results, accelerated scrapping policies are generally recommended to reduce regulated emissions, but they may increase greenhouse gases. Multi-objective analysis based on economic valuation methods was used to investigate trade-offs among emissions of different pollutants for optimal fleet conversion policies.     

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative vehicles in the Philippines using immediate and distant future scenarios

Alternative vehicle technologies promise a sustainable future by reducing carbon emissions and pollution. However, their widespread adoption tends to be slow due to high costs and uncertainties in benefits. Using a life cycle-based approach, this study calculates ownership savings and societal benefits for various alternative vehicle technologies against their baseline vehicle technology (e.g. gasoline or diesel). The assessment is performed from a developing country context – in the Philippines. Furthermore, immediate and distant future scenarios are modeled. The immediate future scenario assesses costs and benefits if the shift is to happen now, while the distant future scenario considers the effect of widespread autonomous driving and ridesharing. The results of the study echo the significant societal benefits from electric- and fuel cell-powered vehicles found in literature, but they are hindered by high ownership costs. In the immediate future, the diesel hybrid electric vehicle can potentially have both positive societal and operational costs for public transportation. For a gasoline-powered private passenger car, a simple shift to diesel, 20% biodiesel or 85% methanol can be beneficial. In the distant future, it is expected that autonomous, rideshared vehicles can potentially lure people away from driving their own vehicles, because of lower costs per passenger-kilometer while sustaining the privacy and comfort of a private car.     

What is the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany

Commercial passenger cars are a possible early market segment for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Compared to privately owned vehicles, the commercial vehicle segment is characterized by higher mileage and a higher share of vehicle sales in Germany. To this point, there are only few studies which analyze the commercial passenger car sector and arrive at contradictory results due to insufficient driving profile data with an observation period of only one day. Here, we calculate the market potential of PEVs for the German commercial passenger car sector by determining the technical and economical potential for PEVs in 2020 from multi-day driving profiles. We find that commercial vehicles are better suited for PEVs than private ones since they show higher average annual mileage and drive more regularly. About 87% of the analyzed three-week vehicle profiles can technically be fulfilled by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with an electric driving range of about 110 km while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with an electric range of 40 km could obtain an electric driving share of 60% on average. In moderate energy price scenarios, PEVs can reach a market share of 2–4% in the German commercial passenger car sales by 2020 and especially the large commercial branches (Trade, Manufacturing, Administrative services and Other services) are important. However, our analysis shows a high sensitivity of results to energy and battery prices as well as electric consumptions.     

Evaluating policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from private transportation

This paper proposes a model system to forecast household greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from private transportation. The proposed model combines an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model with MOVES 2014. Four modeling components are calibrated and applied to the calculation of GHGEs: vehicle quantity, vehicle type and vintage, miles traveled, and rates of GHGEs. The model is applied to the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area. Three tax schemes are evaluated: vehicle ownership tax, purchase tax and fuel tax. We calculate that the average GHGEs per vehicle is 5.15 tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO₂E) gases. Our results show that: (a) a fuel tax is the most effective way to reduce vehicle GHGEs, especially for households with fewer vehicles; (b) a purchase tax reduces vehicle GHGEs mainly by decreasing vehicle quantity for households with more vehicles; and (c) an ownership tax reduces vehicle GHGEs by decreasing both vehicle quantity and miles traveled.     

An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois

There have been a number of studies of the effectiveness of vehicle scrappage programs, which offer incentives to accelerated scrappage of older vehicles often thought to be high emitters. These programs are voluntary and aimed at replacement of household vehicles. In contrast, there is a gap in knowledge related to the emissions benefits of government fleet replacement (retirement) programs. In this study, the efficacy of a fleet replacement program for a local government agency in Northern Illinois, the Forest Preserve of DuPage County (FPDC), is examined using a probabilistic vehicle survival model that accounts for time-varying covariates such as vehicle age and gasoline price. The vehicle lifetime operating emissions are calculated based on the estimated vehicle survival probabilities from the survival model and compared with those derived using the EPA default fleet used in MOBILE6 and the fleet represented by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) survival curve. The results suggest that while there may be short term emission benefits of the FPDC fleet replacement plan, the long-term emission benefits are highly sensitive to economic factors (e.g., future gasoline price) and exhibit a decreasing trend. This indicates that an adaptive multi-stage replacement strategy as opposed to a fixed one is preferable to achieve optimal cost effectiveness.

Social and spatial effects of transforming the private vehicle fleet in Brisbane,Australia

Transformation of the motor vehicle fleet has been an important feature of the world’s peak car phenomenon. Very few urban transport studies have explored such important changes in large urban cities. Using an innovative green vehicle datasets constructed for 2009 and 2014, this paper investigates the ongoing change in urban private vehicle fleet efficiency (VFE) in Brisbane. The spatial patterns of VFE change were examined with social-spatial characteristics of the urban area. The results showed that the social and spatial effect of VFE changes remain uneven over urban space. The inner urban areas have experienced higher level of VFE change, whilst people in the outer and oil vulnerable areas showed a low tendency in shifting to more efficient vehicles. The implication of VFE change for future household vehicle adoption was also evaluated based on a cost-benefit analysis of new vehicle technology costs and expected fuel savings for households that choose a fuel efficient vehicle. The results show that imposing a stronger national fuel economy target in the long term would accelerate evolution of vehicle fleets and oil vulnerability reduction in Brisbane.     

A stated-preference approach towards assessing a vehicle inspection and maintenance program

A stated-preference approach is used to analyzing responses towards the implementation of a vehicle inspection and maintenance program in Lebanon. A questionnaire-based survey was administered to 160 owners of private autos using a scenario-based approach to look at the choice between centralized and decentralized inspection stations as well as between car repair and payment of an emission fee. Binary-logit models are used to define inspection set-up and repair/fee payment choices. The centralized system with car repair were found to be the more popular options.     

Policing the poor: The impact of vehicle emissions inspection programs across income

Comparing vehicle emissions inspection results with vehicle owner income shows that the Arizona vehicle emissions inspection program constrains the vehicle repair decisions of people in the low end of the income distribution more than people in the high end. Individuals who live in areas with lower annual income are both (i) more likely to drive vehicles that fail emissions inspections at a higher average rate, and (ii) more likely to fail emissions inspections conditional on vehicle characteristics. The top income quintile fails emissions inspections 20% less often than the bottom income quintile even when controlling for observable vehicle characteristics. This implies that owner characteristics, in addition to observable vehicle characteristics, have a non-negligible impact on vehicle emissions rates. Therefore, the impact of programs designed to reduce vehicle emissions could be greater if participation were subject to a means test.     

Analysis of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of regulated and alternative driving cycles based on real-world measurements

Discrepancies between real-world use of vehicles and certification cycles are a known issue. This paper presents an analysis of vehicle fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of the European certification cycle (NEDC) and the proposed worldwide harmonized light vehicles test procedure (WLTP) Class 3 cycle using data collected on-road. Sixteen light duty vehicles equipped with different propulsion technologies (spark-ignition engine, compression-ignition engine, parallel hybrid and full hybrid) were monitored using a portable emission measurement system under real-world driving conditions. The on-road data obtained, combined with the Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) methodology, was used to recreate the dynamic conditions of the NEDC and WLTP Class 3 cycle. Individual vehicle certification values of fuel consumption, CO₂, HC and NO_x emissions were compared with test cycle estimates based on road measurements. The fuel consumption calculated from on-road data is, on average, 23.9% and 16.3% higher than certification values for the recreated NEDC and WLTP Class 3 cycle, respectively. Estimated HC emissions are lower in gasoline and hybrid vehicles than certification values. Diesel vehicles present higher estimated NO_x emissions compared to current certification values (322% and 326% higher for NO_x and 244% and 247% higher for HC + NO_x for NEDC and WLTP Class 3 cycle, respectively).     

Life cycle emissions and cost model for urban light duty vehicles

The growth of vehicle sales and use internationally requires the consumption of significant quantities of energy and materials, and contributes to the deterioration of air-quality and climate conditions. Advanced propulsion systems and electric drive vehicles have substantially different characteristics and impacts. They require life cycle assessments and detailed comparisons with gasoline powered vehicles which, in turn, should lead to critical updates of traditional models and assumptions. For a comprehensive comparison of advanced and traditional light duty vehicles, a model is developed that integrates external costs, including emissions and time losses, with societal and consumer life cycle costs. Life cycle emissions and time losses are converted into costs for seven urban light duty vehicles. The results, which are based on vehicle technology characteristics and transportation impacts on environment, facilitate vehicle comparisons and support policy making in transportation. Substantially, more sustainable urban transportation can be achieved in the short-term by promoting policies that increase vehicle occupancy; in the intermediate-term by increasing the share of hybrid vehicles in the car market and in the long-term by the widespread use of electric vehicles. A sensitivity-analysis of life cost results revealed that vehicle costs change significantly for different geographical areas depending on vehicle taxation, pricing of gasoline, electric power and pollution. Current practices in carbon and air quality pricing favor oil and coal based technologies. However, increasing the cost of electricity from coal and other fossil fuels would increase the variable cost for electric vehicles, and tend to favor the variable cost of hybrid vehicles.     

Estimating emissions reductions from accelerated vehicle retirement programs

Accelerated vehicle retirement programs offer owners of older vehicles incentives to scrap those vehicles earlier than might otherwise occur. Since older vehicles generally pollute more than newer vehicles, public agencies adopt such programs to reduce air pollutant emissions. Current methods of estimating the emissions reduction benefits of the programs are based on several assumptions and limited empirical evidence. This paper uses data from two large-scale programs in California to demonstrate that changing assumptions can significantly alter the assumed benefits of the program. The results show that vehicle retirement programs are likely to reduce emissions, but probably not as much as expected, particularly for nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide emissions. The differences in estimates stem from several factors: scrapped vehicles are generally driven fewer miles than other vehicles of the same model year; some of the vehicles would have been scrapped without the program or not have lasted as long as expected; emissions for some pollutants may not be as high as predicted; and replacement vehicles are usually older than the fleet average.     

Charge timing choice behavior of battery electric vehicle users

This paper aims to examine choice behavior in respect of the time at which battery electric vehicle users charge their vehicles. The focus is on normal charging after the last trip of the day, and the alternatives presented are no charging, charging immediately after arrival, nighttime charging, and charging at other times. A mixed logit model with unobserved heterogeneity is applied to panel data extracted from a two-year field trial on battery electric vehicle usage in Japan. Estimation results, obtained using separate models for commercial and private vehicles, suggest that state of charge, interval in days before the next travel day, and vehicle-kilometers to be traveled on the next travel day are the main predictors for whether a user charges the vehicle or not, that the experience of fast charging negatively affects normal charging, and that users tend to charge during the nighttime in the latter half of the trial. On the other hand, the probability of normal charging after the last trip of a working day is increased for commercial vehicles, while is decreased for private vehicles. Commercial vehicles tend not to be charged when they arrival during the nighttime, while private vehicles tend to be charged immediately. Further, the correlations of nighttime charging with charging immediately and charging at other times reveal that it may be possible to encourage charging during off-peak hours to lessen the load on the electricity grid. This finding is supported by the high variance for the alternative of nighttime charging.     

Feebates, footprints and highway safety

This paper presents an analysis of a market-based policy aimed at encouraging manufacturers to develop more fuel efficient vehicles without affecting the car buyer’s choice of vehicle size. A vehicle’s size is measured by its “footprint”, the product of track width and wheelbase. Traditional market-based policies to promote higher fuel economy, such as higher gasoline taxes or gas guzzler taxes, also induce motorists to purchase smaller vehicles. Whether or not such policies affect overall road safety remains controversial, however. Feebates, a continuous schedule of new vehicle taxes and rebates as a function of vehicle fuel consumption, can also be made a function of vehicle size, thus removing the incentive to buy a smaller vehicle. A feebate system based on a vehicle’s footprint creates the same incentive to adopt technology to improve fuel economy as simple feebate systems while removing any incentive for manufacturers or consumers to downsize vehicles.