Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis

Although the Suez Canal is the most important man-made waterway in the world, rivaled perhaps only by the Panama Canal, little research has been done into forecasting its traffic flows. This paper uses both univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural network models to forecast the maritime traffic flows in the Suez Canal which are expressed in tons. One of the important strengths of the ARIMA modelling approach is the ability to go beyond the basic univariate model by considering interventions, calendar variations, outliers, or other real aspects of typically observed time series. On the other hand, neural nets have received a great deal of attention over the past few years. They are being used in the areas of prediction and classification, areas where regression models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used. The models obtained in this paper provide useful insight into the behaviour of maritime traffic flows since the reopening of the Canal in 1975—following an 8-year closure during the Arab-Israeli wars (1967-1973)—till 1998. The paper also compares the performance of ARIMA models with that of neural networks on an example of a large monthly dataset.     

Demand Information from Incomplete Data—Application to Commercial Catfish

This paper provides general background information relating to the physical characteristics and operations of the Suez Canal. In connection with the future development of the Canal, the research programme currently being undertaken by a British consortium is outlined, with particular reference to the traffic system presently operating.     

The development of the Suez Canal

This paper provides general background information relating to the physical characteristics and operations of the Suez Canal. In connection with the future development of the Canal, the research programme currently being undertaken by a British consortium is outlined, with particular reference to the traffic system presently operating.     

Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.     

The expansion of the Panama Canal and its impact on global CO2 emissions from ships

As part of the discussions of the environmental effects of the expansion of the Canal through the construction of a third set of locks, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) began to consider measuring the impact of the project on global CO₂ emissions in 2006. The hypothesis PCA intends to investigate whether the third set of locks will prompt reductions in total world CO₂ emissions or not. The Canal's third set of locks will prevent reaching the saturation point, and will avoid diversion of traffic to potentially longer alternative routes, such as the Suez Canal and Cape Horn, thereby reducing distances and fuel consumption. In addition, the widening of the Canal may promote the construction of modern-type post-Panamax vessels, making transportation of freight more efficient through economies of scale. This white paper will initiate an exploratory research on the subject based on two possible scenarios: an existing Canal and an expanded Canal. Both scenarios will take physical distances, closest alternative routes, as well as fuel consumption of vessels and other relevant modes of transportation into consideration.     

The maximum shipping capacity of the Suez Canal

This paper considers the determination of the maximum shipping capacity of the Suez canal. Initially, some assumptions are made in order to calculate the ‘theoretical’ maximum capacity in terms of ‘standard ships’. This last term defines ships which transit the Canal at a given speed and at a given time interval from the vessel ahead and astern.

Data has been collected from the Canal Zone, the analysis of which provides the necessary information regarding speeds of vessels at different sections of the Canal, time gaps between different classes of ship at different nodes of the Canal, and relationships between time widths of convoys and numbers of ships in those convoys at different points of the Canal.

This data has then been used to calculate the maximum capacity of the Canal in terms of ‘real ships’. For that purpose four schemes have been devised, each taking a different mix of categories of ships. A sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to investigate the effect of each class of ship on the real maximum shipping capacity of the Canal. The last two schemes take into consideration the effect of the future introduction of supertankers.     

Short-term prediction of vehicle waiting queue at ferry terminal based on machine learning method

Ferry service plays an important role in several cities with waterfront areas. Transportation authorities often need to forecast volumes of vehicular traffic in queues waiting to board ships at ferry terminals to ensure sufficient capacity and establish schedules that meet demand. Several previous studies have developed models for long-term vehicle queue length prediction at ferry terminals using terminal operation data. Few studies, however, have been undertaken for short-term vehicular queue length prediction. In this study, machine learning methods including the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) are applied to predict vehicle waiting queue lengths at ferry terminals. Through time series analysis, the existence of a periodic queue-length pattern is established. Hence, methodologies used in this study take into account periodic features of vehicle queue data at terminals for prediction. To further consider the cyclical characteristics of vehicle queue data at ferry terminals, a prediction approach is proposed to decompose vehicle waiting queue length into two components: a periodic part and a dynamic part. A trigonometric regression function is introduced to capture the periodic component, and the dynamic part is modeled by SVM and ANN models. Moreover, an assembly technique for combining SVM and ANN models is proposed to aggregate multiple prediction models and in turn achieve better results than could be attained from a lone predictive method. The prediction results suggest that for multi-step ahead vehicle queue length prediction at ferry terminals, the ensemble model outperforms the separate prediction models and the hybrid models, especially as prediction step size increases. This research has important practical significance to both traffic service management interests and the travelers in cities along waterfront areas.     

基于SAR的深远海船舶动态感知技术应用展望

针对现有技术手段对深远海区域船舶动态感知能力不足的问题,分析了基于SAR的深远海船舶动态感知技术实现深远海船舶动态监控的可能性,并对海事应用场景进行了初步研究,认为该技术可用于大区域深远海船舶交通态势分析、深远海遇险船舶定位及应急指挥、海事日常空中主动巡航监管,可作为海事系统技术体系的一个重要组成部分"陆海空天"一体化...     

Revisiting urban hierarchy and specialization from a maritime perspective

ABSTRACT

Port–city relationships have attracted paramount attention from a variety of scientific disciplines for several decades, such as geography, history, planning, regional science, sociology, and economics to name but a few. Yet, the extent to which maritime traffic specialization obeys the same spatial distribution than other economic activities remains underexplored today. This article tackles these lacunae head-on by proposing an empirical analysis of the way vessel tonnage per main categories of flows (e.g. containers, bulks, passengers) coincides with the demographic size of the world’s coastal and inland city-regions, using novel data on global inter-port vessel movements and harmonized population data over the period 1977–2008. Our main results confirm that such traffic is far from being randomly distributed, as its volume, value, and diversity concentrate at the top of the urban hierarchy. This research motivates the need to further integrate physical connectivity into the study of cities and their development mechanisms.     

海上智能交通系统体系的构建与实现

海上智能交通系统构建的关键是实现船舶航行自动化和对海上交通能够实行有效的管理,从宏观角度可归结为船舶的避碰。但以往的避碰研究都对信息的交流考虑不够。基于系统的思想,我们认为把协商决策引入船舶避碰才能发挥系统整体的最佳效能,提出了建立海上智能交通系统的框架与结构体系,并探讨了其具体实现及关键技术和问题。最后对其未来发展进行展望,给出了相关建议。     

海上高频电子邮件技术

海上高频电子邮件技术[1]是海上高频数字通信技术的重要部分,使用PACTOR-Ⅲ协议和现有海上中/高频无线电设备,经由全球链路网( GLN)与陆上用户进行通信.海上高频数字通信技术主要包括PACTOR-Ⅲ协议和T总线协议.对海上高频数字通信的带宽和传输速率、调制、编码和码率、振幅因数与发射机输出功率、数据包的结构、控制信号、信号特征等技术问题的分析,对海上高频段新通信技术的引进有非常重要的价值.     

Safety culture on board six Swedish passenger ships

This paper presents the results of a Swedish study on maritime safety culture. The study aims to increase knowledge about the characteristics of safety culture in the maritime setting and about the relationship between safety culture and organizational climate. Such knowledge can be vital in the process of developing and improving safety culture. The paper reports the results of safety culture assessments on board six Swedish passenger ships in international traffic, using observations, questionnaires, and interviews focussing on 508 employees who completed the questionnaires. The results of the assessments revealed a generally good existing safety culture. Differences in individuals' safety culture perceptions were found between ships, vessel type (high-speed craft versus Ropax), and hierarchical working position. Important relationships between organizational climate and safety culture were also found. A comparison with other transport sectors where the same safety culture assessment had been applied yielded that passenger shipping has an average safety culture score level that falls between air traffic control and airport ground handling. The method of assessment, which can be used by shipping companies and vessel crews, identified specific areas of concern in the safety culture that could support continuous improvements of safety and safety culture.     

Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs.     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Safety culture on board six Swedish passenger ships

This paper presents the results of a Swedish study on maritime safety culture. The study aims to increase knowledge about the characteristics of safety culture in the maritime setting and about the relationship between safety culture and organizational climate. Such knowledge can be vital in the process of developing and improving safety culture. The paper reports the results of safety culture assessments on board six Swedish passenger ships in international traffic, using observations, questionnaires, and interviews focussing on 508 employees who completed the questionnaires. The results of the assessments revealed a generally good existing safety culture. Differences in individuals' safety culture perceptions were found between ships, vessel type (high-speed craft versus Ropax), and hierarchical working position. Important relationships between organizational climate and safety culture were also found. A comparison with other transport sectors where the same safety culture assessment had been applied yielded that passenger shipping has an average safety culture score level that falls between air traffic control and airport ground handling. The method of assessment, which can be used by shipping companies and vessel crews, identified specific areas of concern in the safety culture that could support continuous improvements of safety and safety culture.     

仿真技术在船舶碰撞事故再现中的应用

船舶碰撞的研究始终是航行安全或海上交通安全研究领域的热点问题。介绍了应用船舶操纵模拟器模拟碰撞过程的仿真技术,它是目前进行海上事故鉴定和事故分析的重要技术手段。首先利用仿真技术对当事船舶的碰撞过程进行实时动态仿真,再通过船舶碰撞事故分析软件(船舶碰撞事故分析系统2.0)进行分析,最后的仿真结果对船长、驾驶员具有重要的参考价值,也为海上安全主管机关调查处理船舶碰撞事故提供一种新的途径。     

Estimating demand variables of maritime container transport: An aggregate procedure for the Mediterranean area

Demand variables of maritime container transport (throughput, transhipment and origin–destination flows) may be estimated with freight demand models. As their parameters generally vary both in time and space, models may not be transferable to geographical areas and time periods differing from that for which they are calibrated.     

Characteristics and consequences of the cruise traffic seasonality on ports: the Spanish Mediterranean case

Cruise traffic is a maritime business and tourist typology that has expanded significantly in the past two decades. The seasonality of the industry affects maritime traffic, generating negative effects for the primary stakeholders involved in the configuration of a cruise itinerary. This article focuses on cruise traffic seasonality from the perspective of cruise ports by analysing a sample of 13 ports on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The variable used was cruise passenger movements during the period 2000–2015. The main objective of this article is to analyse cruise traffic seasonality in order to identify a pattern, classify through a cluster analysis, and identify the changes in seasonality during the period. Specifically, a threefold analysis has been performed, with the additional goal of providing a series of counter-seasonal suggestions and strategies to apply in the management of cruise ports. First, the seasonality pattern of each port was determined. Second, a cluster analysis was conducted to classify ports into clusters with homogeneous seasonality patterns. Third, an analysis was conducted to identify the changes in seasonality during the period of analysis using the coefficient of variation and the Gini coefficient. This article concludes the existence of two port clusters with different seasonal patterns.     

Panama Canal expansion and its impact on East and Gulf coast ports of U.S.A.

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on the Panama Canal expansion and its impact on American port infrastructure for the attention of academic researchers in maritime transportation and supply chain management (SCM). First, it provides a comprehensive background based on a review of pertinent practitioner as well as academic publications. This is followed by a summarization of the impact of this expansion on the infrastructure of the major East and Gulf Coast (EGC) ports, since these stand to be the most affected. Then it presents a categorization scheme for these EGC ports that capture their likelihood of attracting the expected increase in cargo traffic engendered by the expansion; this is preliminarily supported by the latest data on growth in container traffic. The policy implications of this categorization are then discussed and the paper ends by identifying key SCM research problems exposed by the above.     

Examining quick delivery at an affordable cost by the NSR/SCR-combined shipping in the age of Mega-ships

ABSTRACT

The Mega-ships, the maximum containerships represented by 20,000TEU-class (LOA:400m, Breadth: 60m, Draft: 16m) which are able to transit both the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal, have emerged in 2013, aiming at lower shipping cost by economy of scale. At the same time, they inevitably increased port calls in a rotation to collect more cargo demand, resulting in the longer transit time than ever before. Taking this trend into account, the authors proposed the quick delivery scenario between East Asia and Northwest Europe by the NSR (Northern Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping, of which 4,000 TEU ice-class containership transits the NSR during the summer season and the SCR in the wintertime, based on a year-round scheduled operation. The quick delivery scenario gives the shorter transit time at an affordable shipping cost depending on the NSR navigable season length. However, the quick delivery scenario cannot avoid uncertainties in navigation especially via the NSR in the summer season, due to rough weather, sea ice, low visibility and icing in the icy water section of the NSR. The authors preliminarily concluded that a year-round scheduled operation of the NSR/SCR-combined shipping will be secured, if the practical navigation schedule is appropriately prepared.