Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO₂ emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO₂ emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO₂ emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO₂ emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO₂ emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.     

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

The effects of slow steaming on the environmental performance in liner shipping

The environment issue is one of the significant challenges that the liner shipping industry has to face. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from existing vessels by 20–50% by 2050 and develop the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) as a measure for energy efficiency. To achieve this goal, IMO has suggested three basic approaches: the enlargement of vessel size, the reduction of voyage speed, and the application of new technologies. In recent times, liners have adopted slow steaming and decelerated the voyage speed to 15–18 knots on major routes. This is because slow steaming is helpful in reducing operating costs and GHG emissions. However, it also creates negative effects that influence the operating costs and the amount of GHG emissions at the same time.

This study started with the basic question: Is it true that as voyage speed reduces, the operating costs and CO₂ emissions can be reduced at the same time? If this is true, liners will definitely decelerate their voyage speed themselves as much as possible so that they can increase their profits and improve the level of environmental performance. However, if this is not true, then liners will concentrate just on increasing their profits by not considering environmental factors. This led the authors to set out three objectives: (1) to analyze the relationship between voyage speed and the amount of CO₂ emissions and to estimate the changes by slow steaming in liner shipping; (2) to analyze the relationship between voyage speed and the operating costs on a loop; and (3) to find the optimal voyage speed as a solution to maximize the reduction of CO₂ emissions at the lowest operating cost, thus satisfying the reduction target of IMO.     

Barriers for adoption of energy efficiency operational measures in shipping industry

According to the Third Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Study 2014 of International Maritime Organization (IMO), the total emission in 2012 are estimated to be 949 million tonnes which is 2.7% of global CO₂ emission by total shipping and expected to increase from 2012 levels by 50–250% by 2050. Significant changes are needed to all industry by implementation of energy efficiency design and operational measures to meet existing and future global emission reduction targets. Although the fuel cost-reducing effects of some energy efficiency measures and new technologies are well established and matured, shipping companies appear reluctant to adopt them. Besides, it is observed that the stakeholders are directly or indirectly involved for implementation of energy efficiency measures in shipping industry. Therefore, the objective for this study was to identify the barriers to energy efficiency operational measures by a qualitative survey among various stakeholders from all corners of shipping industry. It has been found in the research that the barriers for implementation of all cost-free operational measures are almost the same such as lack of information of the measure, lack of awareness and competence of ship crews and operation difficulties which are in nature of information and technical barriers. But financial issue and owner’s interest are the key barriers for some other operational measures which are related to costing and need investment for implementation.     

Environmental awareness and practice concerning maritime air emissions: the case of the Greek shipping industry

One of the most urgent environmental problems facing the shipping industry today is the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from its operations and the possible cost-effective ways in which this reduction could be accomplished. Various technical and operational measures have been proposed as well as market-based instruments for the achievement of the compliance of marine industry with these measures. This paper investigates the levels of environmental awareness of the Greek shipping companies and their views and practices on the proposed policies for the reduction of GHG emissions from their ships. A survey was carried out using a questionnaire distributed to Greek shipping companies of different sizes, involved in different segments of the marine industry, so that the survey's results not only represent a large part of the Greek shipping industry but also reveal the different environmental attitudes and practices on maritime GHG emissions among the shipping companies. Given the size and the importance of the Greek shipping industry in the international maritime field, this paper's results present a special significance as they could be further analyzed and taken into account for the achievement of the compliance of marine industry with any future policy instrument for the reduction of maritime GHG emissions.     

The impact of port operations on efficient ship operation from both economic and environmental perspectives

Recently, shipping lines have focused on efficient ship operation, which relates to energy efficiency issues in shipping and, particularly, to operational issues such that the minimisation of fuel consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Efficient ship operation in container lines is closely related to the ship’s time at sea and ship’s time in port. Reduction in port time, thanks to high-quality port operations, allows improvement in the operational efficiency of a liner service by reducing the fuel consumption of a ship at sea and its resulting CO₂ emissions. The main goal of this article is to investigate how time in port affects efficient ship operation in terms of operating costs, CO₂ emissions and externalities. For this, as a methodology, a simulation based upon system dynamics is introduced. Major finding is that less time in port resulting from the improvement of port operations contributes to efficient ship operation in terms of operating costs, amount of CO₂ emissions and external effects in the liner shipping industry. In particular, a sensitivity analysis on efficient ship operation vis-à-vis the quality of port operation shows that bigger ships need to select highly productive calling ports that provide less time in port.     

Air pollution from ships: Recent developments

All developments on air pollution by ships are fairly recent. Annex VI of the international Marpol-convention, regulating the emissions of CFCs, Halons, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from cargoes, emissions from incinerators and exhaust gas emissions from engines (NO_x and SO_x) entered into force in May 2005. The International Maritime Organization is currently discussing an upgrade of the air pollution issues covered by Annex VI and some that are not in Annex VI, such as greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ is the most important greenhouse gas emitted by ship. Fuel consumption by the world merchant fleet is expected to grow to between 250–300 million tons per year with corresponding CO₂ emissions of 800–960 million tons per year. In Western Europe land based measures have reduced sulphur emissions substantially, leaving shipping as an important remaining source of these emissions. Average sulphur content of heavy fuel oils is 3%, with a limit of 4.5% imposed by Annex VI. Both the Baltic- and the North Sea have the status of SO_x emission control area, limiting sulphur content to 1.5%.     

Atmospheric emissions of European SECA shipping: long-term projections

We modeled the projections of the major atmospheric emissions from shipping of the European sulphur emission control area that includes the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the English Channel until 2040. Emission projections were calculated separately for every ship on annual basis, and the model took into account traffic growth, fleet renewal, and the forthcoming regulations. The regulation on sulfur content of ship fuels will drastically decrease the emissions of sulfur oxides and particulate matter (PM_2.5). As the regulation on nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) only affects the new diesel engines, the decrease in emissions will be seen parallel with the fleet renewal. Globally internalized limits will turn NO _x emissions to decrease with moderate traffic growth. However, by designating the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as NO _x emission control areas, more drastic decrease would occur. CO₂ emissions will stay almost constant through the studied timeline. Results show that European Commission's CO₂ target for 2050 will not be reached without implementation of market based measures among the North Sea and the Baltic Sea fleets. Results present new information for decision makers to further develop international regulations of shipping especially in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.     

Swedish ports’ attitudes towards regulations of the shipping sector's emissions of CO2

Shipping is increasing today along with the sector's emissions of greenhouse gases. The awareness of the emissions has increased the pressure for regulations of the shipping industry. Regulating the sector is far from simple due to the complexity of the market and the evasive characteristics of the industry. We know from studies of road pricing that attitudes among stakeholders are important for a successive policy implementation. The objective of this paper is to capture the Swedish ports’ attitudes towards regulations of the shipping sector's emissions of CO₂ . This has been done by conducting a survey among commercial ports in Sweden. To our knowledge, this is the first study of this kind. Our analysis indicates that ports in Sweden are generally positive towards an implementation of regulations to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the shipping industry. The ports where most positive towards CO₂ differentiated port due (97%), followed by a technical standard (92%), CO₂ taxation (84%) and EU ETS (The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme; 74%).     

Thermodynamic analysis of alternative marine fuels for marine gas turbine power plants

The marine shipping industry faces challenges to reduce engine exhaust emissions and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from ships, and in particular, carbon dioxide. International regulatory bodies such as the International Maritime Organization and National Environmental Agencies of many countries have issued rules and regulations to drastically reduce GHG and emissions emanating from marine sources. This study investigates the possibility of using natural gas and hydrogen as alternative fuels to diesel oil for marine gas turbines and uses a mathematical model to assess the effect of these alternative fuels on gas turbine thermodynamic performance. Results show that since natural gas is categorized as a hydrocarbon fuel, the thermodynamic performance of the gas turbine cycle using natural gas was close to that of the diesel case. However, the gas turbine thermal efficiency was found to be slightly lower for natural gas and hydrogen fuels compared to diesel fuel.     

CO2 emission statistics for the world commercial fleet

The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the world commercial fleet. The analysis is based on the Lloyds-Fairplay world ship database for 2007 and produces various emissions statistics of the following major ship types: bulk carriers, crude oil tankers, container vessels, product/chemical carriers, LNG carriers, LPG carriers, reefer vessels, Ro-Ro vessels and general cargo ships. A separate analysis is carried out for small vessels under 400 GRT and for passenger vessels. The main outputs from this analysis for each ship type-size bracket are the emitted grams of CO₂ per tonne-km and an estimate of the total CO₂ produced in a year. The methodology for estimating these statistics is described, and a comparison with other studies is made.     

船用燃气轮机动力装置替代燃料的热力学分析（英文）

The marine shipping industry faces challenges to reduce engine exhaust emissions and greenhouse gases(GHGs) from ships, and in particular, carbon dioxide. International regulatory bodies such as the International Maritime Organization and National Environmental Agencies of many countries have issued rules and regulations to drastically reduce GHG and emissions emanating from marine sources. This study investigates the possibility of using natural gas and hydrogen as alternative fuels to diesel oil for marine gas turbines and uses a mathematical model to assess the effect of these alternative fuels on gas turbine thermodynamic performance. Results show that since natural gas is categorized as a hydrocarbon fuel, the thermodynamic performance of the gas turbine cycle using natural gas was close to that of the diesel case. However, the gas turbine thermal efficiency was found to be slightly lower for natural gas and hydrogen fuels compared to diesel fuel.     

Evaluating economic and environmental value of liner vessel sharing along the maritime silk road

The Belt and Road initiative is a novel exploration of China towards strategic collaboration with Eurasia countries to an extent of a larger scale with higher and deeper level of cooperation. To meet the growing global demand of transportation, increasing numbers of liner shipping companies collaborate and form alliances to share vessel capacity and reduce capital costs. Effective liner shipping vessel sharing is essential for the Belt and Road initiative in terms of building efficient maritime transport networks. In promoting environmental development, shipping companies are required to attain higher environmental standards. However, limited literature relates vessel sharing to environmental performance. This paper studies the impacts of liner vessel sharing from the economic and environmental perspectives. Two container allocation models are developed for the two scenarios: with and without vessel sharing. The carbon emissions in transportation are calculated under both scenarios. Numerical studies are carried out using services along the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic (CIPE) Corridor. Liner shipping companies could benefit from vessel sharing in terms of significant profit improvement. Vessel sharing could also benefit the environment by reducing the CO₂ emissions dramatically.     

Analysis of thirty years evolution of urban growth,transport demand and supply,energy consumption,greenhouse and pollutants emissions in Greater Cairo

The objective of the paper is to analyze evolution of urbanization, transport demand and supply in Greater Cairo (GC) over the last three decades of the 20th century. This is in addition to investigating the impact of city growth on energy consumption and emissions from transport. It utilizes results of 1971, 1978, 1987, 1998 and 2001 travel demand surveys, undertaken during the corresponding GC transport studies; each was published a year or two later. No further transport studies have been carried out in GC over the past decade and in view of the current political situation, it is not envisaged that similar studies will be undertaken in the near future. The analysis includes the evolution of daily trips, trip purpose share, modal share and number of cars. More recent trends for 2006/2007 vehicle registration by type and size are given. The evolution of transport supply covers projects until early 2012. In parallel estimates of the evolution of energy consumption and cost, emissions of greenhouse gases (CO₂) and pollutants (CO, HC and NO_x) are given for 1971/2001. The adopted estimation methodology is summarized. Comparative analysis of relevant evolution indexes and trends of growth between 1971 and 2001, taking the former as base year, is given. Land use and transport policies and projects that in some cases helped, directly or indirectly, to reduce traffic congestion, or at least prevented an increase, are addressed, commenting on their outcomes. Thus, transferable experience are useful to sister cities benefiting from successes and avoiding drawbacks. The evolution of the impact of GC metro on energy consumption and cost, and GHG emissions is given for 1987/2001, assuming the scenario “metro did not exist”. More recent impact analysis is given for 2007/2008, as the data allowed estimating traffic volumes that would have been added to the congested metro corridors under the above scenario; and the related fuel consumption and cost and GHGs. The paper ends with conclusions on GC evolution, learned lessons and suggests repeating similar work in other mega cities of the developing countries. Further research is emphasized, e.g., modeling the relationship between land use, transport, energy and emissions; modeling emission factors by vehicle type; and studying fuel-subsidy-reduction scenarios and their socio-economic effects.     

The influence of route choice and operating conditions on fuel consumption and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission of ships

The influence of various parameters, such as ship initial speed (full ahead and lower engine loads), loading condition, heading angle and weather conditions on ship fuel consumption and CO₂ emission is presented. A reliable methodology for estimating the attainable ship speed, fuel consumption and CO₂ emission in different sea states is described. The speed loss is calculated by taking into account the engine and propeller performance in actual seas as well as the mass inertia of the ship. The attainable ship speed is obtained as time series. Correlation of speed loss with sea states allows predictions of propulsive performance in actual seas. If the computation is used for weather routing purposes, values for various ship initial speed, loading conditions and heading angles for each realistic sea‐state must be provided. The voluntary speed loss is taken into account. The influence of the ship speed loss on various parameters such as fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is presented. To illustrate the presented concept, the ship speed and CO₂ emissions in various routes of the Atlantic Ocean are calculated using representative environmental design data for the track of the routes where the ship will sail.     

国际海运温室气体减排措施概述

文中分析了国际海运温室气体排放的特征，介绍了国际海运温室气体减排措施，并对未来发展趋势作出了预测。     

Slow steaming of liner trade: its economic and environmental impacts

From 2000s, there have been three forces provoking slow steaming practice in the liner industry: (1) oversupply of shipping capacity, (2) increase of bunker price and (3) environmental pressure. This paper analyses the background and the recent application of slow steaming in liner shipping. The research looks into the questions of how slow steaming can save bunker consumption and bring benefits to the environment. On the other hand, solutions are also examined to the adverse side of slow steaming practice, i.e., how it affects the container transit time. For which, a cost model is developed to demonstrate the impact of slow steaming on the revenue change, with application to the North Europe—Far East Trade as a case study. The final result shows that the optimal speed for the shipowner is correlated with the designed speed, bunker price and the price of CO₂. With the increase of the bunker price and the price of CO_2, the optimal speed will also increase, which means that slow steaming practice has a positive impact on the environmental protection.     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

国际海运温室气体排放交易机制框架

文中介绍了国际温室气体减排的背景以及排放交易的概念和现状，分析了国际海运温室气体排放交易机制的设计要素、可能存在的主要问题以及发展趋势，并为我国在此方面的；住备工作提出了建议。