Shipping economics: where we are and looking ahead from an institutional economics perspective [1]

There have been significant changes in the nature of shipping services in recent years. These have been most notably in the liner segment, but other parts of the market have not remained static. Technology shifts have been responsible for some of the change, but there have also been developments in institutional structures and managerial approaches. The economic drivers behind the sector, however, remain relatively poorly understood, despite a copious literature on shipping. Managerial economics has tended to put emphasis on the emergence of more sophisticated logistics structures and the role of information to tighten the overall supply chain. Industrial economists have been concerned with technical change and in particular with its interaction with more liberal markets structures. Often tied with this has been interest in the underlying nature of shipping markets (e.g. competitive, monopolistic or contestable) and, depending on the outcome, whether there is price leadership, collusion, predatory behaviour or whatever. Much of this work has been aspatial, treating shipping as any other industry with distance between demand and supply ignored or incorporated in a very simplistic manner. Environmental economists have focused on matters of fuel efficiency and pollution. This paper takes a broad overview of shipping economics in the context of the larger institutional framework within which it operates. It seeks broader analysis within an institutional economics framework, but also highlights some of the problems of achieving this.     

Development of and prospects for cruising in Europe

This paper evaluates the development of prospects for cruising in Europe. It examines this within the broad framework of economic theory and maritime economics. Initially, the market structures and relationships applicable to cruising are considered with particular attention being paid to the linkages between the shipping markets and tourism and leisure. This conceptual analysis suggests that whilst cruising has a strong shipping element it does not fall exclusively within the classic framework of maritime economics but draws from both shipping and tourism and leisure. For reasons of clarity, a number of definitions are also provided covering maritime tourism and leisure, cruising, and supply and demand, as it relates to cruising. Following this, an overview of the cruise industry is included. This focuses primarily on the growth in the demand both world wide and at regional level. In particular, the analysis places the development of cruising in Europe in market perspective. Subsequently, the development of cruising in the UK is examined as a case study. Initially, UK market growth is analysed and it can be seen that the UK is now the second largest cruise market in the world after North America. Projections of the growth in UK demand to 2003 are also provided. The growth in supply is also studied and the UK targeted fleet is identified. In addition, the question of ownership is addressed. The prospects of employment for UK seafarers within the cruise industry are also considered and results obtained from the analysis suggest that it should be possible to increase the participation of UK and other European seafarers within the cruise industry at all levels and in all departments. In the final section of the paper, the position of UK ports as terminals and destinations is evaluated. It is concluded that the fundamentals of the cruise business remain strong, and continued growth by the industry should be possible for the foreseeable future.     

Development of and prospects for cruising in Europe

This paper evaluates the development of prospects for cruising in Europe. It examines this within the broad framework of economic theory and maritime economics. Initially, the market structures and relationships applicable to cruising are considered with particular attention being paid to the linkages between the shipping markets and tourism and leisure. This conceptual analysis suggests that whilst cruising has a strong shipping element it does not fall exclusively within the classic framework of maritime economics but draws from both shipping and tourism and leisure. For reasons of clarity, a number of definitions are also provided covering maritime tourism and leisure, cruising, and supply and demand, as it relates to cruising. Following this, an overview of the cruise industry is included. This focuses primarily on the growth in the demand both world wide and at regional level. In particular, the analysis places the development of cruising in Europe in market perspective. Subsequently, the development of cruising in the UK is examined as a case study. Initially, UK market growth is analysed and it can be seen that the UK is now the second largest cruise market in the world after North America. Projections of the growth in UK demand to 2003 are also provided. The growth in supply is also studied and the UK targeted fleet is identified. In addition, the question of ownership is addressed. The prospects of employment for UK seafarers within the cruise industry are also considered and results obtained from the analysis suggest that it should be possible to increase the participation of UK and other European seafarers within the cruise industry at all levels and in all departments. In the final section of the paper, the position of UK ports as terminals and destinations is evaluated. It is concluded that the fundamentals of the cruise business remain strong, and continued growth by the industry should be possible for the foreseeable future.     

Competition in ship handling: a study of market turbulence in North European harbour towage

This paper addresses the issues of an increasingly competitive towage industry in Northern European ports. Enhanced competitiveness reflects the trends in the global mobility of capital, labour, enterprise and management within the context of deregulated port markets. Up until the early 1990s, the long term trend in major North European ports had been towards market concentration. Many small towage firms have been taken-over, bought out or merged. Alternatively, a pattern of consortia has emerged with co-operation and market sharing seen as preferable to ruinous competition. A contrasting trend has occurred in the 1990s, with new entrants into hitherto stable markets. In a number of ports—Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Southampton, Thamesport, Bristol Channel—new fleets have brought competitive challenge to the incumbent towage fleets. The process of enhanced competitiveness raises questions of safety, reliability, investment and professionalism. The movement towards an openly competitive shipping industry has been in evidence from the 1960s onwards. The momentum of a dynamic shipping industry, with its competitiveness sharpened by the use of global supply factors, has intensified from that period. The movement in European tonnage towards flags of convenience and global labour supplies began in the tanker and bulk carrier markets; more recently this has spread to deep sea liner, short sea and even cabotage trade shipping. The towage industry is the last North European shipping sector to make this transition, following the trends towards port deregulation in the 1990s. From this perspective, this paper considers the impact on the towage market of global mobility and deregulation in North European towage markets—the impact of increased competition on the traditional operators and the likely effect on operational towage standards.     

Competition in ship handling: a study of market turbulence in North European harbour towage

This paper addresses the issues of an increasingly competitive towage industry in Northern European ports. Enhanced competitiveness reflects the trends in the global mobility of capital, labour, enterprise and management within the context of deregulated port markets. Up until the early 1990s, the long term trend in major North European ports had been towards market concentration. Many small towage firms have been taken-over, bought out or merged. Alternatively, a pattern of consortia has emerged with co-operation and market sharing seen as preferable to ruinous competition. A contrasting trend has occurred in the 1990s, with new entrants into hitherto stable markets. In a number of ports Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Southampton, Thamesport, Bristol Channel new fleets have brought competitive challenge to the incumbent towage fleets. The process of enhanced competitiveness raises questions of safety, reliability, investment and professionalism. The movement towards an openly competitive shipping industry has been in evidence from the 1960s onwards. The momentum of a dynamic shipping industry, with its competitiveness sharpened by the use of global supply factors, has intensified from that period. The movement in European tonnage towards flags of convenience and global labour supplies began in the tanker and bulk carrier markets; more recently this has spread to deep sea liner, short sea and even cabotage trade shipping. The towage industry is the last North European shipping sector to make this transition, following the trends towards port deregulation in the 1990s. From this perspective, this paper considers the impact on the towage market of global mobility and deregulation in North European towage markets the impact of increased competition on the traditional operators and the likely effect on operational towage standards.     

The limited scope of seaborne cargo liability regime: new political–economic environments in the 21st century

ABSTRACT

Since the 1920s, seaborne cargo liability regimes have introduced a small number of mandatory rules into international carriage of goods by sea, through the Hague–Visby Rules, to restrict freedom of contract. These rules worked within a limited scope to offset imperfect competition in the shipping markets. However, the recent Hamburg and Rotterdam Rules attempted to extend this scope of seaborne cargo liability regime, which seems to be more extensive than is desirable. This article compares and examines the shipping sub-sectors’ environment and maritime economics over the past century up to date. The new business patterns of the shipping sub-sectors, the rising influence of developing countries, and the containerisation are creating new shipping environments for this area of law. Compared with previous decades, imperfect competition is only found in a smaller number of areas within the shipping markets nowadays. This article argues that only a limited scope of application is needed for international seaborne cargo liability regime. Thus, these new economic and political realities call for innovative modifications to the recent rules regarding the scope of application, and future regime should refocus international uniformity on a limited scope.     

Contributions to maritime economics—Zenon S. Zannetos,the theory of oil tankship rates

This paper discusses the importance of Zannetos’ 1966 book for the development of maritime economic thought. The main contributions of the book are recounted, and the empirical work in the book is reviewed.

The analysis of the present paper is a citation research on the maritime economics literature that refers to the book. Of the 42 papers in the set, about one-third refers to the book in general. A total of 35 papers refer to one or more elements of the book, with an equal number of references to: (1) the term structure of freight rates; (2) the empirical findings on the form of the supply curve; and (3) on the verification of his results.

The general conclusion of the citation analysis is that, apparently, a number of elements of his work are still very valid for current maritime economics thinking, while maritime economists have disregarded several other elements. The latter seems unjustified for some of the business structure observations that are made in the book, such as the notion that the ship is the firm, and the elasticity of expectations. The former observation is the basis for virtually all empirical work in maritime economics that is based on individual contract data (all freight rate analysis is of this nature), and the second is the basis for the analysis of investment behaviour in shipping, investigations of cyclicality and so on.

Zannetos can definitely be seen as the initiator of the important field of term structure analysis in maritime economics. In addition to this, there are several topics in the 1966 book that are as yet unexplored, and deserve empirical scrutiny.     

Contributions to maritime economics—Zenon S. Zannetos, the theory of oil tankship rates

This paper discusses the importance of Zannetos' 1966 book for the development of maritime economic thought. The main contributions of the book are recounted, and the empirical work in the book is reviewed.

The analysis of the present paper is a citation research on the maritime economics literature that refers to the book. Of the 42 papers in the set, about one-third refers to the book in general. A total of 35 papers refer to one or more elements of the book, with an equal number of references to: (1) the term structure of freight rates; (2) the empirical findings on the form of the supply curve; and (3) on the verification of his results.

The general conclusion of the citation analysis is that, apparently, a number of elements of his work are still very valid for current maritime economics thinking, while maritime economists have disregarded several other elements. The latter seems unjustified for some of the business structure observations that are made in the book, such as the notion that the ship is the firm, and the elasticity of expectations. The former observation is the basis for virtually all empirical work in maritime economics that is based on individual contract data (all freight rate analysis is of this nature), and the second is the basis for the analysis of investment behaviour in shipping, investigations of cyclicality and so on.

Zannetos can definitely be seen as the initiator of the important field of term structure analysis in maritime economics. In addition to this, there are several topics in the 1966 book that are as yet unexplored, and deserve empirical scrutiny.     

A conceptual application of cooperative game theory to liner shipping strategic alliances

Since its advent, the liner shipping industry has been characterized by fierce competition and cooperation amongst the member carriers. In recent years, almost all the liners have sought extensive cooperation with others, as reflected mainly by the formation of strategic shipping alliances. Despite this, there are still some liners who prefer the 'go-it-alone' policy and have achieved relative success. It seems that cooperation is not always necessary for a liner company's success. It follows that a study that aims to find the rationale behind liner cooperation (or non-cooperation) is of great significance. Over many years of development, game theory has proved to be a useful tool in the study of economics. It is analytically applicable in this market. With these arguments in mind, this paper aims to apply cooperative game theory to analyse co-operation among members of liner shipping strategic alliances. This will involve: (i) presenting a detailed and systematic analysis of liner shipping strategic alliances: (ii) a concise overview of the development of game theory with specific focus on cooperative game theory, and (iii) deducing a conceptual framework through the application of cooperative game theory to liner shipping strategic alliances. The accomplishment of the aforementioned objectives will enhance understanding of inter-organizational relationships and decision-making behaviour in the liner shipping sector.     

A conceptual application of cooperative game theory to liner shipping strategic alliances

Since its advent, the liner shipping industry has been characterized by fierce competition and cooperation amongst the member carriers. In recent years, almost all the liners have sought extensive cooperation with others, as reflected mainly by the formation of strategic shipping alliances. Despite this, there are still some liners who prefer the ‘go-it-alone’ policy and have achieved relative success. It seems that cooperation is not always necessary for a liner company's success. It follows that a study that aims to find the rationale behind liner cooperation (or non-cooperation) is of great significance. Over many years of development, game theory has proved to be a useful tool in the study of economics. It is analytically applicable in this market. With these arguments in mind, this paper aims to apply cooperative game theory to analyse co-operation among members of liner shipping strategic alliances. This will involve: (i) presenting a detailed and systematic analysis of liner shipping strategic alliances: (ii) a concise overview of the development of game theory with specific focus on cooperative game theory, and (iii) deducing a conceptual framework through the application of cooperative game theory to liner shipping strategic alliances. The accomplishment of the aforementioned objectives will enhance understanding of inter-organizational relationships and decision-making behaviour in the liner shipping sector.     

The potential for British coastal shipping in a multimodal chain

A strategy to revitalize coastal shipping within Great Britain is investigated. An examination of the regulatory environment shows government, at both the EU and British levels, aware of the environmental benefits of coastal shipping compared to road freight transport, if only mildly supportive in tangible terms. The geography of Great Britain and the modern preference for just-in-time deliveries have severely restricted the ability of coastal shipping to compete effectively with road freight transport. The primary objective of the paper is to investigate whether coastal shipping could be integrated into a multimodal door-to-door supply chain, where it is currently hampered by high costs of transhipment, slow transport speeds, and the incongruity of load sizes between land and sea modes. Integration requires the co-operation of all organizations within the multi-modal supply chain. However, coastal shipping companies have been known to be individualistic and mistrusting of alliances. Therefore, a Delphi study is undertaken to investigate the standpoint of leading managers in such companies towards multimodal integration. The results of the Delphi study indicate that managers are in favour of multimodal developments, in particular cooperation between coastal shipping and road haulage. However, there was agreement that the business is highly competitive, and this may prevent the forms of collaboration required for multimodal systems. The secretive nature of the coastal shipping sector could impede joint marketing to promote a mode of transport that is often 'invisible' to shippers. There was little consensus on the relationship that should exist between coastal shipping and ports, a topic worthy of further investigation.     

The potential for British coastal shipping in a multimodal chain

A strategy to revitalize coastal shipping within Great Britain is investigated. An examination of the regulatory environment shows government, at both the EU and British levels, aware of the environmental benefits of coastal shipping compared to road freight transport, if only mildly supportive in tangible terms. The geography of Great Britain and the modern preference for just-in-time deliveries have severely restricted the ability of coastal shipping to compete effectively with road freight transport. The primary objective of the paper is to investigate whether coastal shipping could be integrated into a multimodal door-to-door supply chain, where it is currently hampered by high costs of transhipment, slow transport speeds, and the incongruity of load sizes between land and sea modes. Integration requires the co-operation of all organizations within the multi-modal supply chain. However, coastal shipping companies have been known to be individualistic and mistrusting of alliances. Therefore, a Delphi study is undertaken to investigate the standpoint of leading managers in such companies towards multimodal integration. The results of the Delphi study indicate that managers are in favour of multimodal developments, in particular cooperation between coastal shipping and road haulage. However, there was agreement that the business is highly competitive, and this may prevent the forms of collaboration required for multimodal systems. The secretive nature of the coastal shipping sector could impede joint marketing to promote a mode of transport that is often ‘invisible’ to shippers. There was little consensus on the relationship that should exist between coastal shipping and ports, a topic worthy of further investigation.     

海水腐蚀、海生物污损与船舶营运经济性

文章介绍了船舶由于海水腐蚀和海生物污损,使船体表面粗糙度增加及降低船舶营运的经济性,提出了降低船体表面粗糙度、提高营运经济性的防蚀措施。     

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act: the trans-Atlantic cares

For many years, economists have pressed for the deregulation of the shipping industry, with studies purporting to show constant returns to scale in motor transport, and staggering losses inflicted on the economy by regulation. Deregulation is now the order of the day in the US, but during the deregulation process, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) struggled with strong pressure to remove anti-trust immunity historically enjoyed by ocean shipping conferences.

However, instead of entirely removing this anti-trust immunity, the US Congress passed the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) in 1998. OSRA, which came into effect on 1 May 1999, represents a logical continuation of the trend toward deregulation established by the Shipping Act of 1984. Although the Act (OSRA) maintains anti-trust immunity, its creation also established confidential service contracts between shippers and individual lines.

Because the actual effect of this Act has yet to be researched and reported in the transportation literatures, this paper assesses the impact of OSRA on the market structure of the container shipping industry. Three major east- and westbound arterial routes, as determined by Drewry Shipping Consultants and Containerisation International, are examined in this study to ascertain whether the markets are competitive or not 1, 2. The trade imbalance existing in all three trade routes (trans-Atlantic, trans-Pacific, and from Asia to northern Europe) provides a basis from which to investigate the pricing structure in the container shipping market. The changing tariff structure of the trans-Atlantic lane in 1999 provides the foremost evidence of the impact of the Act to evaluate the new law's impact on the maritime industry. By examining the traffic volume and freight rates of inbound and outbound trades, this paper found that before the second quarter of 1999, the trans-Atlantic lane's market structure was non-competitive, but it became competitive after the third quarter of 1999. This paper concludes that OSRA did have substantial influence on the market structure of the trans-Atlantic lane since the Act came into effect on 1 May 1999. The Act laid a solid legal framework upon the industry that forced the carriers in the trans-Atlantic trade route to operate competitively.     

The pros and cons of leasing in ship financing

Ship leasing is as old as shipping itself. As a financing device it is an alternative to equity financing through ship mortgages. Ship financing methodologies are in themselves highly sophisticated, and within that domain, the principal varieties of leases, namely, the operating lease and the finance lease are both fairly complex mechanisms in terms of their respective uses. Ships are assets; as such ship leasing falls under asset financing and is subject to the fundamental rules of equipment leasing. But ship leasing also has its own distinctive characteristics not only in relation to the unique features of the shipping industry and ship financing, but also, the legal regime within which ship leasing operates. There are variations in the legal regime which in turn impact on economic considerations. Thus, there are pros and cons involved in ship leasing, and they depend on a number of variables. This article is an attempt to critically examine these pros and cons from the relative perspectives of theory-based economists on the one hand, and law and accounting practitioners on the other. To that end, a two-fold literature review of the subject area is presented. The article concludes that economists identify ship leasing with a positive tax advantage and an enhanced financial disposition of the lessee. In contrast, the views of practitioners are complex and inconsistent. It is evident that the literature focuses on the legal arrangements involved in these transactions. These legal arrangements stem from the inherent risks associated with ships and shipping operations and have led to some disadvantages with respect to ship leasing.     

Across the waves: a bibliometric analysis of container shipping research since the 1960s

The paper investigates collaborative and semantic patterns that emerged between 1967 and 2013 about the theme of container shipping based on a corpus of 294 articles published in scholarly journals within the fields of transportation, supply chain, economics, geography, regional planning and development, and operations research. An analysis based on the co-occurrence of title words allows identifying dominant sub-themes and their evolution. Main results point to the gradual diversification of container shipping research, from the dominance of economics towards a more trans-disciplinary set of approaches which integrate port-related activities and multimodal networks. Yet, disciplinary specialization remains strong up to nowadays so that container shipping research remains rather fragmented. While co-authorships have increased over time, they remain polarized by few, weakly connected research battalions. Our study suggests that research on container shipping would benefit from more frequent contacts between such communities to foster in-depth cross-disciplinary studies and fundamental cooperation.     

The economics of railway safety

This paper reviews the statistics and economics of railway safety in Great Britain, the European Union and the United States, together with some results for Finland and Japan. In these countries railway safety has improved over recent decades. That finding applies both to train accidents and to personal accidents such as persons struck by trains. Fatal train collisions and derailments command most attention even though they are infrequent and account for only a small minority of railway fatalities. Great Britain, the EU and the USA formally espouse conventional cost benefit analysis for the appraisal of railway safety measures, using the same valuations for the prevention of casualties as are used in road safety appraisal. However there are often strong institutional, legal and political pressures towards adopting railway safety measures with safety benefit: cost ratios well below 1. The best-documented examples of this are automatic train protection systems, which are discussed in the paper. Apart from trespassers, the largest group of railway fatalities occur at level crossings, which the paper also discusses. Level crossing safety measures would seem to be an appropriate subject for cost benefit analysis, but there are few case-studies in the literature. Over the last few decades, the railways in many countries have been privatised or deregulated with the aim of improving their economic performance. Such changes have the potential to affect safety. The paper reviews evidence of the effects on safety of railway restructuring in Great Britain, Japan and the United State, and finds no evidence that safety deteriorated.     

The case for using cost benefit analysis to evaluate the supply of public goods in the maritime industry

In an era in which economists have rediscovered their belief in the economic efficiency of free markets and espoused privatization as a policy means of achieving these benefits, perhaps it is advisable to consider some of the difficulties markets have in supplying public and merit goods. In the following article, the case of the Hydrographic Service safety services and the difficulties of using traditional accounting methods to assess the adequacy of that provisions. It is also argued that the techniques of cost benefit analysis should be used to assess the adequacy of the supply of public goods and a framework is suggested for the evaluative structure.     

Prospects for maritime developments in the Baltic

Considerable change has occurred in the Baltic basin over recent years as a consequence of the re-unification of West and East Germany, political change in Polandd, the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the emergence of the independent Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuniania and Estonia. This paper reflects on the nature of the impact of these recent changes and considers trends and developments that may emerge for the future, by concentrating on the eastern Baltic regions(Poland to Russia). It is concerned more with general maritime markets and the ports and shipping interface than with the shipping industry and shipbuilding sectors of these regions. Much of the background material for the paper has been derived from participation in projects for the CIS, in Latvia and in Poland and for which the EBRD, EC (PHARE Programme) and World Bank are respectively acknowledged as the project instigator and funding agencies.     

The impact of transitional changes on maritime transport in Central and Eastern Europe

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Central and Eastern European shipping. Former socialist shipping corporations began offering services under market conditions and left behind the rigid leeway of central planning and regulation. Extensive adjustments in ownership and legislation have transpired, and services and markets, as well as the operations within, have changed significantly. The restructuring of maritime transport is being carried out within the framework of forms that derive from changes in the economic macrosystems as a whole. Careful analysis of the process of corporate transition identifies unique patterns of diminishing, permanent, and incipient components utilized during the reorientation of fleet strategy, market and service changes, and company restructuring. All transition arrangements have been greatly influenced by the integration of Central Eastern European countries with the European Union.