形势依然非常严峻 《2012年第二季度中国航运景气报告》发布

航运企业经营状况恶化趋势有所放缓,但是中国航运行业总体状况恶化趋势略微加剧。7月3日,上海国际航运研究中心发布"2012年第二季度中国航运景气报告"。报告显示,2012年第二季度,     

Vertical integration and its implications to port expansion

ABSTRACT

Over the years many shipping lines have established terminal operation companies, with some set up as independent firms. However, port authorities and local governments have not always welcomed external investment and control with open arms. The economic implications and each stakeholder’s best strategies remain unclear. This study develops an analytical model in order to study the effects of vertical integration, with a focus on shipping lines’ investment in ports’ capacity. Modelling results suggest that vertical integration between terminal operator and a shipping line leads to higher port capacity, port charge, market output and consumer surplus. It also reduces delay costs. All these results suggest that vertical integration can be an important source of synergy for the maritime industry. Although vertical integration increases the participating carrier’s output at the expenses of non-integrating rival shipping firms, our numerical analysis suggests that the overall social welfare is likely to increase. Preliminary empirical tests confirm that vertically integrated ports handle more traffic volumes and are associated with better infrastructure and equipment. Therefore, port authorities and government regulators should carefully review the market competition status as well as port expansion plans.     

Managing culturally diverse maritime human resources as a shipping company’s core competency

ABSTRACT

The last few years a great body of research focused on the problems observed in the shipping industry due to the mix of different nationalities on board. Herein, the problem is observed in the managerial level, and specifically to the applied crew management strategies and the philosophy of the shipping companies regarding the issue of multiculturalism. The present paper seeks to elevate the value of human resources in shipping and to underline the potentials that human resource management and cultural diversity management have as a shipping company’s core competency. In a triangulated theoretical framework, the combination of resource-based view, human resource management, and cultural diversity management leads to a framework of choices which include strategies for the management of maritime human resources’ cultural diversity. The paper analyses the practical application of the proposed strategies and the fulfilment of the criteria required for turning crew management to a core competency and gaining sustainable competitive advantage from human resources.     

航运电子市场价格监控机制研究

通过对航运电子市场价格监控系统构成要素、基本功能的阐述,分析了航运电子市场价格监控系统的建立原则,提出了航运电子市场价格监控的事前四级监管机制、事中价格实时监测与预警机制、事后应急处理机制。     

基于功效系数法与BP神经网络的造船业风险预警研究

将功效系数法和BP神经网络相结合,从汇率、利率、出口退税、钢材综合价格指数、行业平均工人工资、设备价格、新船价格指数、BDI指数(八个对造船业影响最大的指标)来综合衡量中国造船业的风险;运用功效系数法得出历史数据的警情,用历史数据训练BP神经网络预警模型;通过一组数据进行检验,并对2011年前的造船业风险进行了预警.研究表明:该方法能够对造船业风险进行测评并预报警情,对防范我国造船业风险具有一定的现实指导意义.     

2006年世界船舶市场评述及展望

总结了近一年来世界经济的发展,在此大背景下对2006年的船舶行业进行了总结和回顾,并对未来市场进行预测.世界船舶行业在2006年出现一个显著特征,即在航运市场回落的情况下船舶建造市场出现了前所未有的兴旺景象,船舶交易出现价高量大的场面.究其原因,船厂任务已饱满、受新规范影响,成本进一步提高以及对后市航运市场看好等原因起到主要作用.鉴于目前订单情况及航运市场现状,预测未来船价还将保持高位运行,航运市场运力将得到进一步快速扩增,甚至会出现供大于求的局面,不过崩盘的可能性不会太大.     

The reform of Chinese state-owned ship crewing agencies and implications for China’s seafaring labour export

ABSTRACT

With the economic reform in China, the international shipping industry and some academics anticipated, as early as the 1990s, that Chinese seafarers would flood the world’s seafaring labour market. However, China’s seafarer export has been far lower than these expectations. This article seeks to explain this lack of development through research into the management strategies of two major ship crewing agencies in China, which have been reformed to different degrees, and the experience of the seafarers who work for them. To examine this question, 86 interviews of managers and seafarers were conducted in two Chinese state-owned crewing agencies (SCAs) between 2008 and 2013. The studies demonstrate that despite the economic reform in China, the SCAs were still supported and constrained by institutions at higher levels, instead of becoming independent, market-oriented economic entities, which constrained the development of foreign manning business. This partly explains the limited rate of increase of China’s seafarer export.     

Integrating banks’ decision on financing dry bulk shipping: a multivariable approach

ABSTRACT

Shipping is characterized by extreme changes in revenues, operating expenses and asset values, making shipping banks’ final decision for financing shipping market considerably harder. This paper develops a practical decision tool based on the estimation of the credibility factor in the decision-making process, each bank’s policy, and the most significant variables arising from both its operating environment and the dry bulk market. Revealed relationships between bank’s internal environment, its own policy, and dry-bulk shipping market conditions through GDP growth of China constitute a newly presented decision framework in shipping finance. The values of credibility factor implicate either an aggressive or passive defensive strategy taking into account the GDP China changes: Consistent with the economic growth of China, a bank’s holds an aggressive policy if the credibility coefficient is about one. On the other hand, the model predicts that a less aggressive policy in combination with the increase of China’s GDP would drive to the decrease of bank’s loan grants.     

Achieving an ASEAN single shipping market: shipping and logistics firms’ perspective

ABSTRACT

To establish an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Single Shipping Market (ASSM) is an important part of ASEAN governments’ overall plan to achieve an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. It is expected that a single shipping market will improve the region’s logistics performance and international competitiveness. To achieve this vision, however, the ASEAN countries need to remove any remaining barriers to logistics performance. In this light, the objective of this paper is to identify these barriers and assess their effects on the logistics performance of shipping and logistics firms based in ASEAN countries. Using a questionnaire-based survey, the study revealed several barriers affecting their logistics performance with varying significance among these countries. Unless these barriers from the perspective of the industry are removed, the ability of the shipping and logistics industry to benefit from a liberalized market would be limited. These perceived barriers are examined in detail and strategies to address them are proposed. The ASEAN experience is applicable to similar countries in the process of integrating their international shipping sector as well as contributes to the understanding of the different barriers and how these barriers can affect the logistics performance of shipping and logistics companies.     

Short-term liner shipping bunker procurement with swap contracts

The bunker price fluctuations in recent years have severely threatened the stability of liner shipping companies’ operations. As an efficient countermeasure, the swap contract is widely adopted throughout the liner shipping industry to hedge the procurement risk resulting from the bunker price fluctuation. This paper looks at the short-term liner shipping bunker procurement problem with swap contracts (BPPSC), aiming to optimally plan the amount of bunker purchased from the spot market and the amount hedged by the swap contract for several months ahead. This BPPSC is first formulated as a bunker procurement cost mean-variance minimization (MVM) model, and is subsequently solved using a tangible two-step approach developed in this study. In the first step, the movements of the swap contract price and the spot market price of the bunker are described using a calibrated multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (mGARCH) time series model. In the second step, the MVM model is approximated and solved by a price scenario tree constructed from the mGARCH time series model. A numerical example shows that the risk hedging strategy obtained can simultaneously control the bunker procurement cost as well as the procurement risk from price fluctuations. This article is a revised and expanded version of the abridged eight-page paper entitled ‘Optimal hedging for liner bunker procurement’ presented at ‘2015 International Conference on Logistics and Maritime Systems (LOGMS 2015)’, Hong Kong, 27–29 August 2015.     

Modelling and forecasting the demolition market in shipping

ABSTRACT

We model the demolition market, an integral part of the international shipping industry. It is shown through the implementation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that international steel-scrap prices contribute decisively towards price discovery in the ship-demolition industry. Our finding is explained and attributed to the fact that the growth models of Southeast Asian countries, where the ship-demolition market is primarily located, rely on scrap metal imports. These are mainly obtained from the developed economies rather than the recycling of vessels. We then proceed to test the forecasting ability of our model and use it for price prediction in the ship-demolition market. We establish that it provides the decision-makers with a useful prediction tool which enables all stakeholders involved, the ship owner, the recycler and the cash buyer alike, to gain valuable insights of the underlying trend in the sector.     

Socioeconomic factors affecting the job satisfaction levels of self-employed container truck drivers: a case study from Shanghai Port

The job satisfaction level (JSL) of self-employed container truck drivers (SCTDs) is vital to the container trucking industry’s (CTI) stability in China. An anonymous field survey of 645 SCTDs was conducted at Shanghai Port. Three ordered probit models were, respectively, developed to analyze the drivers’ JSLs, their attitudes, and reactions to a CTI downturn. This study contributes to the literature that the demographic variables were not statistically significant for the SCTDs’ current JSLs, while higher income SCTDs with fewer expenses were expected to have higher JSLs. During an industry downturn, drivers with families in Shanghai showed more job dissatisfaction. More working hours, lower income, expensive diesel fuel, a high consumer price index (CPI), and a low freight-to-distance ratio (FDR) significantly lowered the JSLs. An increase in the price of diesel fuel and the CPI, and a lower FDR exposed the industry to risk and instability. Additionally, credible evidence indicated that as the dissatisfaction levels of SCTDs rise in a downturn, SCTDs implement more practical measures that may negatively affect the industry’s stability as well as society’s. Based on these findings, managerial or policy implications were proposed to efficiently improve SCTDs’ JSLs and CTI stability in Shanghai.     

Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

Administrative burdens and over-exertion in Swedish short sea shipping

ABSTRACT

Despite significant changes in work tasks performed on board, towards more sedentary monitoring and administrative work, the incidence of occupational injuries and disorders remains high among seafarers. In order to improve safety standards, industry stakeholders increasingly require written documentation of numerous routines, procedures and tasks performed on board. These increased demands have however added to the administrative burden. Some say, to the extent that administrative work has become a safety risk in itself. This paper presents the result of a survey investigating how Swedish seafarers perceive their own level of fatigue, stress and over-exertion related to work. The material consists of 1309 respondents originating from a random selection procedure, of which 651 reported to be employed in short sea shipping. Multiple regression analysis (OLS regression), allowing adjusted effects, were applied in several steps of the analysis. The highest levels of exertion were reported by employees in the catering department, positions not generally associated with high administrative burden. Perceived high levels of administrative work do increase the level of exertion, but cannot explain the observed pattern. Future ship and trade-specific studies on physical and mental well-being and complementary studies on the catering department’s working conditions and work environment are necessary.     

再谈近年世界修船业

近年来。航运的快速发展给世界修船业带来了市场供求关系的巨大变化，从价格、成本、效益等各个方面形成了世界修船业发展的一个重要机遇期。而发展成为造船强国的宏伟目标。更是从技术、人才、管理、文化等各个方面给中国修船业的发展带来前所未有的机遇。     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

Daily Maersk’s impacts on shipper’s supply chain inventories and implications for the liner shipping industry

The liner shipping industry has long been characterized by a weekly sailing frequency and schedule unreliability. This research is motivated by the launch of the revolutionary “Daily Maersk” service in late 2011, which introduced daily departures and “absolute reliability” in the Asia–North Europe trade lane. This article analyzes Daily Maersk’s impacts on a shipper’s supply chain inventories and profound implications for the liner shipping industry as a game changer. The quantitative analyses show that the impact of more frequent sailings is most significant on a shipper’s cycle stock, while improving schedule reliability substantially reduces safety stock and pipeline stock. Daily Maersk is most valuable for products that have high value density, high inventory holding cost ratio, low demand variability, and high service level (SL) requirement. These findings imply that the trend of liner alliance/merger/acquisition is likely to continue or even accelerate as shipping lines consolidate fleet capacity to offer more frequent sailings. Rival carriers may step up their involvement in terminal operations to improve schedule reliability. They also need to rethink about their SL targets and clearly define their preferred customer segments.     

Are there bubbles in the shipping freight market?

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the reconsideration of price bubbles specific to the shipping freight market based on the method of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF). This approach offers the opportunity to recognize multiple bubbles and set their corresponding original and final dates. Empirical results reveal that four bubbles existed in the shipping freight market between October 1988 and February 2018 in which freight deviated from fundamental values. Strong demand (especially in China), the supply capacity, crude oil prices and U.S. dollar fluctuations are potential explanations for the first three bubbles. The global financial crisis that burst in 2008 is the major factor results in the last bubble. Hence, we must distinguish the potential reasons of bubbles in different periods and take measures such as promoting economic multipolarization, strengthening the bargaining power of China, building an effective information transfer system, employing financial derivatives and accelerating the consolidation of the shipping industry to alleviate the negative influences on global seaborne trade.     

Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations

In this study, we use a sample of 192 listed shipping companies and employ a logit model in order to investigate the determinants of the probability of default. We enhance our analysis by isolating not only the cases of company liquidations but also those cases where companies had to change their legal status due to warning liquidity signals. Our key findings are in line with prior research and moreover we depict a changing trend in the marginal effects of relevant variables, on the probability of default. We further show, through an empirical application, how the obtained results can be used in a managerial decision-making process and in a bank credit underwriting process in order to assess the creditworthiness of a shipping company.     

Slow steaming of liner trade: its economic and environmental impacts

From 2000s, there have been three forces provoking slow steaming practice in the liner industry: (1) oversupply of shipping capacity, (2) increase of bunker price and (3) environmental pressure. This paper analyses the background and the recent application of slow steaming in liner shipping. The research looks into the questions of how slow steaming can save bunker consumption and bring benefits to the environment. On the other hand, solutions are also examined to the adverse side of slow steaming practice, i.e., how it affects the container transit time. For which, a cost model is developed to demonstrate the impact of slow steaming on the revenue change, with application to the North Europe—Far East Trade as a case study. The final result shows that the optimal speed for the shipowner is correlated with the designed speed, bunker price and the price of CO₂. With the increase of the bunker price and the price of CO_2, the optimal speed will also increase, which means that slow steaming practice has a positive impact on the environmental protection.