A risk appraisal system regarding the implementation of maritime regulations by a ship operator

The shipping industry operates in a regulatory framework, where the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is the leading regulatory body. The role of the IMO is to propose maritime regulations to its member states. The successful worldwide implementation of a maritime regulation depends on how many member states adopt it. However, many maritime regulations are not adequately implemented worldwide. As a result, ship operators have found themselves in an uncomfortable position in developing their business in an unstable regulatory regime. This paper proposes an extendable and applicable methodology involving a System of Hierarchical Scorecards (SHS) to measure the implementation costs and benefits of a newly introduced or existing maritime regulation by ship operators. The regulators may use the results in evaluating newly introduced and/or existing regulations through taking into account the economic burden that will be generated to ship operators. In this paper, SHS is extended to demonstrate its applicability on evaluating a ship operator’s organization with regard to his regulatory implementation performance by the means of a case study.     

Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

Quantified risk assessment （QRA） needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management （MMEM） theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes： a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation （GMO） model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart （operation dimension）, which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment （FSA） and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization （IMO） is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.     

工程项目中各参与方之间的伙伴关系博弈分析与管理

首先分析当前工程建设管理的现状和工程项目中建立伙伴关系的必要性。通过博弈理论分析建立项目伙伴关系的可行性,指出工程项目中建立伙伴关系所需要的条件,以及建立工程项目伙伴关系需要进一步研究的问题。     

Which terminals should expand investment: a perspective of internal non-cooperative competition in a port?

ABSTRACT

With the increasing container cargo throughput and the arising of port congestion, container ports start to choose the investment expansion strategy to increase the port efficiency and then to figure out the problem of port congestion. To analyze this strategy, we formulate a non-cooperative game model for a two-terminals-one-port system, and derive the optimal equilibrium outcomes of the investment expansion strategy and investment constant strategy. In the game, we find that when the investment parameter of expansion strategy and impact of handling efficiency on demand changes, both pure-strategy Nash equilibrium and mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium exist, and two terminals are more likely to choose the investment expansion strategy in most cases. Numerical simulation is applied to explore the equilibrium strategy under different circumstance.     

供应链合作关系质量的测量指标体系构建--基于近关系理论的研究

如何客观评价供应链上合作企业之间的关系对企业提高竞争力,应对市场不确定性,快速满足顾客个性化需求,实现供应链上企业的共赢具有重要意义。针对目前对关系质量研究从合作结果出发的现状,根据社会心理学中从合作关系特点出发的近关系理论对关系质量的界定,对关系强度、关系持久性、关系频率、关系灵活性、关系多样性和关系公平性6个维度提出具体的衡量指标,构建了供应链合作关系质量测量指标体系。为了克服单一权重确定方法的局限,提出了三角模糊数层次分析法和熵值法组合赋权的关系质量测量方法,通过与三角模糊数层次分析法的指标权重计算结果进行对比分析,证明该方法的有效性和必要性。     

海事行政处罚担保制度的设立

行政担保制度对于促进行政义务的履行、保障合理的个体利益具有积极作用。鉴于海事监管工作的特殊性,有必要创立海事行政处罚的担保制度,解决处罚决定执行难的问题,保证海事行政处罚的顺利执行。     

A performance evaluation model for supply chain of shipping company in Iran: an application of the relational network DEA

Shipping business is capital intensive and highly competitive. It necessitates for the shipping companies to constantly monitor their performance and measure relative efficiencies of their supply chains. Despite such importance, the studies devoted to this field have been surprisingly limited. This paper reviews the involved factors and proposes a relational network data envelopment analysis (DEA) model for measuring the efficiency of supply chain of an international shipping company in Iran with relevant sub-processes in the period 2008–2011. First, the supply chain network of the company is illustrated and then the input and output variables associated to each member are determined. The proposed model is suitable for shipping companies which usually use similar pattern in this business. Finally based on the results, recommendations are made for improvements and a new field of business is also proposed.     

海事执法责任风险评估建模研究

开展海事执法责任风险评估建模研究,对降低、规避海事执法的责任风险,确保海事执法人员全面、安全履职具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。文中通过研究借鉴其他专业领域的风险控制理论,并对以往海事执法责任案例进行归纳统计,推导出计算海事执法风险的数学模型,为海事系统识别、评估、预控各项执法风险提供数理依据。     

A dissipative free-surface approach for an underwater body in a uniform stream

A dissipative free-surface approach is applied to the potential flow problem with respect to a hydrofoil in a two-dimensional uniform stream. A dissipative source-based panel method is developed for a NACA foil problem with its trailing edge being a stagnation point, and also for a symmetric Joukowski foil problem with its trailing edge being a non-stagnation point. To facilitate the understanding of the further application of the dissipative free-surface approach, an underwater mathematical body model is presented. Numerical simulation with respect to the body in a three-dimensional uniform stream is provided from an analytic formulation obtained by the dissipative free-surface technique.     

沿海交通水域测绘行业管理研究

文中在东海海区三个测量案例分析的基础上,指出了沿海交通水域测绘市场中存在的主要问题和原因,并提出了进一步加强海事测绘部门和通航部门合作,规范行业管理的对策建议。     

日照港退岸还海项目人工沙滩拦沙堤布置研究

平直岸线建设人工沙滩时,在没有掩护条件下,通常会在波、流的作用下形成单向的持续输运,人工沙滩难以存留.文章以日照港退岸还海项目为例,基于抛物线型岬湾平衡岸线理论,通过数学模型试验确定了沙滩的铺沙范围和南拦沙堤的布置方案.同时,针对侵蚀比较严重的北侧和中部位置对比分析中部挡沙堤、离岸岛堤、北部拦沙堤等不同的掩护形式的景观...     

A regression and beam theory based approach for fatigue assessment of containership structures including bending and torsion contributions

Container shipping has been expanding dramatically during the last decade. Due to their special structural characteristics, such as the wide breadth and large hatch openings, horizontal bending and torsion play an important role to the fatigue safety of containerships. In this study the fatigue contributions from vertical bending, horizontal bending and torsion are investigated using full-scale measurements of strain records on two containerships. Further, these contributions are compared to results from direct calculations where a nonlinear 3D panel method is used to compute wave loads in time domain. It is concluded that both bending and torsion have significant impacts on the fatigue assessment of containerships. The stresses caused by these loads could be correctly computed by full-ship finite element analysis. However, this requires large computational effort, since for fatigue assessment purposes the FE analysis needs to be carried out for all encountered sea states and operational conditions with sufficient time steps for each condition. In this paper, a new procedure is proposed to run the structure finite element analysis under only one sea condition for only a few time steps. Then, these results are used to obtain a relationship between wave loads and structural stresses through a linear regression analysis. This relation can be further used to compute stresses for arbitrary sea states and operational conditions using the computed wave loads (bending and torsion moments) as input. Based on this proposed method for structure stress analysis, an efficient procedure is formulated and found to be in very good agreement with the full-ship finite element analysis. In addition it is several orders of magnitude more time efficient for fatigue assessment of containership structures.     

船舶腐蚀断裂力学的一种数值计算方法

基于船体表面微裂缝在应力和海水腐蚀耦合作用下的扩展机理,根据Charles-Hillig模型用数值方法模拟了裂缝的动态扩展过程,并用front-tracking图形技术开发了有限元网格剖分软件,从根本上解决了以往该模型无法进行数值模拟的难题.文中侧重于对腐蚀断裂问题进行一般性的基础研究,探索裂缝扩展时的形态以及速度与外荷载之间的关系,数值计算表明,计算结果和实验得出的曲线在形态上比较吻合.     

Ecological modeling as a tool for coastal zone management in Dokai Bay, Japan

An ecological numerical model has been developed for coastal zone management in Dokai Bay, Japan. The numerical model experiment reproduces the occurrence of red tides and oxygen-deficiency in Dokai Bay during summer. Moreover, the model experiments forecast that when the phosphorus or nitrogen load from land will be cut by 90% or 95%, respectively, red tides and oxygen-deficiency will not occur in Dokai Bay. If the sewage facility is not sufficient to cut the nutrients load to the necessary degree, it is necessary to consider other countermeasures such as cultivating bivalves in order to decrease the nutrients in the bay.     

A simulation optimization approach for solving the dual-cycling problem in container terminals

Dual cycling is an operation technique whereby quay cranes perform loading and unloading operations simultaneously in the same ship bay. In this article, a mixed-integer programming model for quay crane dual-cycling scheduling is developed. The model considers the stowage plan of outbound containers and the operation sequence of quay cranes. To solve the model, a heuristic method, called bi-level genetic algorithm, is designed. Meanwhile, a simulation optimization method integrating the intelligent decision mechanism of the optimization algorithm and evaluation function of simulation model is proposed. Numerical experiments indicate that dual cycling can reduce the operation time of quay cranes compared to the method of scheduling loading and unloading separately. Moreover, the model and algorithms developed in this article can tackle quay crane dual-cycling problem efficiently.     

A minimization theory in Hilbert space and its application to two-dimensional cavity flow with a numerical study

A minimization theory, which is based on the Hilbert space theory, is proposed and applied to two-dimensional cavity flow past a strut with the assumption of potential flow. That is, the minimization of the cavity drag of the strut on the cavity flow is studied with the help of the optimization theory proposed. To accelerate the optimization process, the Euler beam theory is introduced to generate a small variation in the strut. The introduction of the Euler beam theory makes the mathematical formulation for the present theory ill-conditioned. To overcome this condition, the Tikhonov regularization and the Morozov's discrepancy principle are used to regularize the present optimal theory. From the numerical study, it is shown that the proposed minimization theory is able to find an optimized shape for the given strut and corresponding optimized cavity drag. Received: June 22, 2000 / Accepted: January 30, 2001     

基于证据理论态势估计中的目标分组方法

在态势估计问题中，战场态势目标尤其是敌方目标的分组识别非常重要，是指挥员指挥作战所关心的重要问题之一，也是对敌方作战意图识别的必要环节，以D-S证据理论为依据，采用模板匹配的方法，提出了一种识别敌目标分组的算法，最后通过算例对该方法进行了验证。     

A simulation approach for estimating value at risk in transportation infrastructure investment decisions

Traditional economic analysis techniques used in the assessment of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are based upon the assumption that future cash flows are fully deterministic in nature and are not designed to account for risks involved in the assessment of future returns. In reality, many of these infrastructure projects are associated with significant risks stemming from the lack of knowledge about future cost and benefit streams. The fundamental premise of the PPP concept is to efficiently allocate risks between the public and the private partner. The return based on deterministic analysis may not depict a true picture of future economic outcomes of a PPP project for the multiple agencies involved. This deficiency underscores the importance of risk-based economic analysis for such projects. In this paper, the authors present the concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of effectiveness (MOE) to assess the risk share for the public and private entity in a PPP project. Bootstrap simulation is used to generate the risk profile savings in vehicle operating cost, and in travel time resulting from demand-responsive traffic. The VaR for Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is determined for public and private entity. The methodology is applied to a case study involving such a joint venture in India, the Mumbai Pune Expressway/National Highway 4 (MPEW/NH4), and fiscal implications from the perspective of the public and the private entities are examined. A comparison between deterministic and risk based economic analysis for MPEW/NH4 is presented. Risk analysis provides insightful results on the economic and financial implications from each participant's viewpoint.     

A box model approach for a long-term assessment of estuarine eutrophication, Szczecin Lagoon, southern Baltic

We develop a layered “box model” to evaluate the major effects of estuarine eutrophication of the Szczecin lagoon which can be compared with integrating measures (chlorophyll a (Chl a), sediment burial, sediment oxygen consumption (SOC), input and output of total nutrient loads) and use it to hindcast the period 1950–1996 (the years when major increase in nutrient discharges by the Oder River took place). The following state variables are used to describe the cycling of the limiting nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus): phytoplankton (Phy), labile and refractory detritus (D_N, D_Nref, D_P, D_Pref), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and oxygen (O₂). The three layers of the model include two water layers and one sediment layer. Decrease of the carrying capacity with respect to the increased supply of organic matter of the system with advancing eutrophication over the period studied is parameterized by an exponential decrease of the sediment nitrogen fluxes with increasing burial, simulating changing properties from moderate to high accumulating sediments. The seasonal variation as well as the order of magnitude of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton stocks in the water column remains in agreement with recent observations. Calculated annual mean values of nutrient burial of 193 mmol N m⁻² a⁻¹ and 23 mmol P m⁻² a⁻¹ are supported by observed values from geological sediment records. Estimated DIN remineralization in the sediments between 100 and 550 mmol N m⁻² a⁻¹ corresponds to SOC measurements. Simulated DIP release up to 60 mmol P m⁻² a⁻¹ corresponds to recent measurements. The conceptual framework presented here can be used for a sequential box model approach connecting small estuaries like the Szczecin lagoon and the open sea, and might also be connected with river box models.     

A computational approach for fatigue crack propagation in ship structures under random sequence of clustered loading

The authors have developed a simulation program, CP-System, for multiple cracks propagating in a three-dimensional stiffened panel structure, where through-the-thickness crack propagation is formulated as a two-dimensional in-plane problem, and the crack propagation behavior is simulated by step-by-step finite element analyses. In order to evaluate the fatigue lives of marine structures accurately, it is necessary to take into account the load histories induced by sea waves, which may be composed of a random sequence of certain clustered loads with variable stress range. In the proposed crack growth model, the crack opening and closure behavior is simulated by using the modified strip yielding model, and the effective tensile plastic stress intensity range, ΔK _RP, is calculated by considering the contact of plastic wake along the crack surfaces. The adequacy of the proposed crack growth model is examined by comparison with fatigue tests under non-constant-amplitude loading. The usefulness of the developed method is demonstrated for a ship structural detail under certain simulated load sequences. It is shown that the fatigue crack growth of a ship structure is significantly retarded due to the load interaction effects, so that the conventional method for fatigue life assessment may predict a relatively conservative fatigue life of a structure.