The econometric testing of investment incentives: A cointegrated approach

Thie paper re-examines the link between shipping investment and investment incentives, first explored in this journal by Marlow, and subsequently developed by mcWilliams et al. in the July-September issue. Examination of the ststistical properties of the data reveals that some of McWilliams' results may be flawed. A modified version of the Marlow model is estimated. checking for statistical and economic consistency, using cointegration, checking for statistical and economic consistency, using cointegration techniques. The estimated model resolves marlow's original challenge, but does not appear to be as robust as could be wished.     

Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

Determinants of container port choice in Spain

For the economic and financial evaluation of port investment projects, it is important to know the demand function of a port's services. The objective of this study is to establish such a demand choice function for the Spanish container port services. The function is derived from the coefficients of a port choice model, for which a multinomial logit model is used and of which the coefficients are estimated with regression analysis. The variables tested concern inland transport cost, ocean transport costs and broad proxy variables for quality of service. Information on container import and export flows for 2007 is obtained from the Spanish Treasury Department. The linear regression analysis is based on differences of utilities of alternative routings of containerised cargoes compared to those routed via the port of Valencia. The obtained results are satisfactory in terms of model fit. The estimated coefficients can be used to assess the impact of changes in costs of container flows routed via a port on a port's market share. A demand choice function for the port can be derived by systematically doing so. An example is presented for the port of Valencia.     

Consistency in preferences for road safety: An analysis of precautionary and stated behavior

This study analyzes stated willingness to pay (WTP) for traffic safety, the use of traffic safety equipments, and the consistency between the two. Using data from a Swedish contingent valuation study we find that the estimated value of a statistical life (VSL) based on the respondents' rear-seatbelt usage is similar to the estimate found using the respondents' stated WTP. However, when estimating VSL based on the respondents' use of bicycle helmets we find a significantly higher VSL; the VSL from bicycle-helmet usage is 7 times higher than the estimate based on seatbelt usage. Moreover, we do not find any strong relationship between risk perception and usage, or individual stated WTP and usage. Hence, the main conclusion, based on our analysis, is that stated and observed WTP are not consistent.     

基于改进层次分析法的舰炮武器系统作战效能评估

舰炮武器系统作战效能评估是一个多目标评价过程,利用层次分析法可以对此非定量事件作定量分析,而一致性检验在层次分析法中是必不可少的。在实际评估中,一般都凭着大致的估计来调整判断矩阵使之满足一致性要求,这样具有很大的盲目性。利用最优传递矩阵的概念,对层次分析法进行改进,使之自然满足一致性要求,直接求出权重值。效能评价实例说明了基于最优传递矩阵的层次分析法的可行性和有效性。     

Application of a Sustainable Fisheries Development Indicator System (SFDIS) for Better Management Outcomes in Taiwan Offshore and Coastal Fishery

A sustainable fisheries development indicator system (SFDIS) is proposed in this article to monitor management of Taiwan's offshore and coastal fisheries. Demonstration of its application shows that the ecological index is tending toward sustainability but to conserve fisheries’ resources it is necessary to strengthen habitat protection and management through a partnership approach. The economic index is tending toward unsustainability as a result of a decline in fisheries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP), value, economic production, and investment. An aging fisherman population and decreasing social performance and resilience contribute to unsustainability of the social index. By contrast, the institutional index is sustainable because of improved management efficiency, ability, and capacity-building. However, some problems exist with regard to compliance and acceptability of institutional expense. Overall, the SFDIS suggests that an increase in employee number, incorrect statistical data, and unacceptable institutional expense will make Taiwan's offshore and coastal fisheries unsustainable in the long run.     

一种基于编码的OBDD模型检测的算法实现

文章根据OBDD模型检测的基本思想并结合一个微波炉模型实例来介绍一种基于状态编码的OBDD模型检测算法实现。该算法实现通过介绍自行开发的OBDD模型检测器,具体描述了OBDD的生成、化简以及使用OBDD进行模型检测的具体实现算法以及OBDD模型检测的全过程,该算法实现简洁易读,可以直接应用于相关程序的开发。     

Does Weight matter? A Statistical analysis of the SSY Capesize index

This paper examines the statistical properties of 19 dry cargo rate series, which are used in the construction of index numbers measuring dry cargo market conditions for Capesize vessels. It is shown that the series are extremely highly correlated. They are also non-stationary. The presence of cointegration is established. It is argued that this implies that rebasing the index numbers using different weights makes little difference to the information derived from the index itself, because of the high correlation between the series and the presence of cointegration. Changing the weighting structure does not alter the information derived from the index in any material way because of these properties.     

Estimating the Economic Benefit of SCUBA Diving in the Similan Islands,Thailand

This article reports the results of the travel cost model using the standard and the truncated count data models to estimate the economic value of the Similan Islands, Thailand, from SCUBA diving. The estimated consumer surplus per visit to the Similan Islands using the truncated negative binomial model was US$3,233 and the economic value of the Similan Islands from SCUBA diving was estimated to be up to US$54.96 m. This study shows that, even without non-use values, coral reefs of the Similan Islands, if properly managed and maintained, will continue to have significant value to both Thai and overseas SCUBA divers, as one of the natural treasures of the world.     

Land use/transport models and economic assessment

This paper discusses the economic assessment of policies using land use/transport models. It argues that conventional forms of assessment focussing only on transport changes can underestimate the economic benefits of a policy. The paper argues that the benefits need to be measured by the changes of prices at the end of a trip and not just by the changes in travel costs. Models that do not estimate the changes of prices at the end of a trip cannot properly assess the impact of a policy.The model used in this paper is based on the MEPLAN software and estimates the location of households and employment and the interaction between them. It also estimates the cost of living for households and the production costs for employment. With these costs, it is possible to calculate the wider economic benefits beyond transport.The paper illustrates the assessment of policies for the Cambridge sub-region involving investment in public transport, orbital highway and congestion charging policies. The results forecast by the model are assessed in terms of the conventional cost-benefit using traveller’s surplus as benefits and compared with a wider assessment measure of compensation variation. It demonstrates that the last measure encompasses the wider benefits associated with transport policies which are not taken into account in conventional cost-benefit analysis.     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

基于系统动力学的港口吞吐量预测模型

将系统动力学方法应用于港口吞吐量预测模型。考虑了各种主要因素对港口吞吐量的影响，较好地解决了港口吞吐量预测方法中考虑系统因素较少的问题以及经济、社会发展水平的不确定性等影响港口吞吐量预测所产生的误差问题。采用宁波市港口各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证．结果证明该模型有效、可行。     

层次分析法在潜艇总体性能评估中的应用与改进

结合潜艇概念设计阶段的特点,提出一种潜艇总体性能的评估模型和评价方法,利用三标度法间接给出判断矩阵,在一定程度上减少了决策者主观因素的影响。针对经验方法在一致性检验时的缺陷,采用统计检验的方法,直接以判断矩阵一致性指标的临界值作为检验标准,简洁可行,且具有一定的理论依据。     

Return lead–lag and volatility transmission in shipping freight markets

This study investigates the return lead–lag and volatility transmission between dry bulk shipping and container shipping freight markets over the period before, during and after the 2008 financial tsunami. Both cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test are applied to explore the lead–lag relationship between the Baltic dry index (BDI) and the China containerized freight index (CCFI). Besides, in the study we employed GARCH–BEKK model, which allows for transmission in freight volatility. On the whole, the empirical results show that the BDI reflects the economic climate earlier than the CCFI during the financial tsunami, whereas the CCFI leads the BDI after the financial tsunami. The price formation hypothesis could well explain the relationship. Moreover, volatility spillovers are found in most subperiods. The dynamics of the conditional volatilities differ, but causality links in the variance are found to be strong and bidirectional in normal periods, and unidirectional during the financial tsunami. Therefore, the occurrence of the financial tsunami could be regarded as an interference factor.     

基于未确知AHP的船员疲劳因素定量分析

提出了船员疲劳因素分析的指标体系，建立了基于未确知信息的层次分析模型。基于三值互反标度法及相关变换原则，得到属性判断矩阵，并给出了其一致性检验方法和权系数的简明计算公式，得出了各个子因素对船员疲劳因素的影响系数，为建立科学、合理的评估体系提供了理论支持。     

基于最优回归理论的舰船辐射噪声指向性统计模型及分析方法研究

文章在已有单航次的舰船噪声空间特性建模分析方法等研究成果的基础上,进一步研究了若干航次条件下的统计建模及分析方法。该研究主要以单一部位垂向剖面的噪声指向性为例,建立了基于最优回归理论的舰船目标辐射噪声特性的统计模型及分析方法,并开展了海上实测研究,验证了该模型及分析方法的正确性和可行性。该项成果为深入分析不同航行工况下各类舰船目标的噪声空间特性及其统计规律等创造了条件。     

Economic Activity Derived from Whale-Based Tourism in Vava'u,Tonga

This article reports on a study that estimated the economic activity of snorkel-with-whales tourism in the small, isolated island group of Vava'u, Tonga. This research shows that these activities generate important economic and other benefits and that these benefits grew from a relatively modest USD500,000 per year in 1999 to USD5 million per year by 2009. Data from self-reply questionnaires completed by holiday-makers who traveled by aircraft (n = 499) and yacht-based visitors (n = 52) showed that whales have become the predominant attraction for visitors to these remote islands. Interviews with tour operators (n = 10) confirmed the increasing influence of whale based activities over all tourism in the Vava'u area.     

Dynamic response of offshore jacket structures under random loads

In this paper, the dynamic response of a scale model of a jacket offshore structure is investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The experiments were conducted both in air and in water. The in-water experiments were done in the towing tank of Memorial University to simulate the realistic operating conditions. The model was subjected to random wave loads. Froude's law of modeling was used to obtain the dimensions of the scale model based on the dimensions of an existing structure. The effects of varying the structure's weight, and the characteristics of the wave loading were investigated. The structure's weight was changed by adding weights to the structure's deck. A finite element model was designed to determine the dynamic response of the model. Excellent agreement between the experimental and theoretical results was obtained.The reaction force at the foundation was estimated from strain measurements and compared with the finite element calculations. Fair agreement was obtained.This work is the first stage of a project whose objective is to develop a method for structural damage detection using the free vibration response of the structure. The free vibration response will be obtained from the stationary random response of the structure using the random decrement method. Having an accurate model to describe the dynamic response of the structure is the first step in this study.     

层次分析法在港口总体方案比选中的应用

介绍了在复杂因素情况下运用层次分析法进行港口工程总体方案综合比选的方法和过程.通过港口工程因素识别、构建层次模型、构造判断矩阵、因素权重分配、一致性检验、分值计算及综合评定等步骤,将人为的主观性依据用数量形式表达出来并进行量化综合比较,从而避免了传统方案比选采用定性判断的不足.     

Green port project scheduling with comprehensive efficiency consideration

ABSTRACT

Ports are an important driving force for world economic growth, but they consume considerable energy. The marine sector has proposed the development of green ports to achieve low-carbon sustainable development. This paper presents a green project scheduling model of port construction to optimize comprehensive economic and environmental efficiency. Various realistic constraints are considered, including investment scale, energy savings, emissions reduction, and project priority. Comprehensive efficiency involves cost reduction, energy savings, emissions reduction, and other efficiency goals. The problem is formulated as an integer program and is solved using CPLEX in a general algebraic modeling system (GAMS). We use a representative port in China as a case port in solving its green project scheduling. The results show that the port can save 6,527 tons of standard coal, reduce 40,875 tons of CO₂, and save 49 million yuan per year in the five-year implementation period. The payback in investing in these green projects is less than six years. From an economic and environmental perspective, the comprehensive efficiency achieved is significant.