Competition for transhipment containers by major ports in Southeast Asia: slot capacity analysis

Container ports in Southeast Asia accounted for an estimated 30.0% of the world's transhipment traffic in 2004. The share of the region's transhipment trade was forecasted to increase to 32.5% in 2015. The potential offered by this large and expanding market encouraged major container terminal operators located in Port Klang, Singapore and Tanjung Pelepas to compete intensively for this business by attracting major container shipping lines that operated along key east-west sailing routes to hub at their terminals.

This paper analyses the annual slot capacity connected to the three selected ports that was deployed by all the container shipping lines in 1999-2004. The data are computed and categorized based on shipping trade routes. The study aims to shed light on port competition in Southeast Asia for transhipment containers by an in-depth and quantitative analysis.

The analysis finds that competition from Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas had a negative impact on Singapore's transhipment performance. Although Singapore continued to enjoy a dominant position as the premier transhipment hub in the region in terms of market share by both transhipment throughput and annualized slot capacity, the evidence suggested that its hold on the market appeared to be slipping, albeit gradually. Overall, Tanjung Pelepas is expected to pose the strongest challenge to Singapore's transhipment hub ambitions. Managerial implications for the ports are drawn.     

Competition between the ports of Hong Kong and Singapore: a structural vector error correction model to forecast the demand for container handling services

The objective of this paper is to provide the Hong Kong government with an alternative forecast of container throughput, by studying various interactive relationships between major ports in East and Southeast Asia. As the demand for container handling services is 'derived' from the demand for imports, the resulting market shares for the container handling services gripped by different regions inevitably become a mirror image of the relative competitiveness of their exports. When the markets of the two ports overlap, their market shares will become a function of the prices they charge and how well they meet the needs of the shippers and shipping lines. A vector error correction model (VECM) with structural identification was set up to capture this kind of trade-interdependency and oligopolistic relationship in the East and Southeast Asian market for container handling services. In the course of so-doing, the upward sloping supply curves and downward sloping demand curve for the container handling services provided by Hong Kong and Singapore are identified from the model. Interestingly, the impulse response functions display what is reminiscent of the trade-interdependency and oligopolistic relationship. The forecast of Hong Kong container throughput generated by the structural VECM is then compared with that obtained by the Hong Kong Port Development Board (PDB). The sensitivity analysis shows that, in all possible cases, the structural VECM produces higher growth paths for the Hong Kong container throughput than the PDB does and, hence, suggests an earlier construction of new terminals.     

Canadian container ports: how have they fared? How will they do?

Between 1980 and 1989 container TEUs handled at all world ports increased by a factor of 2.11. On the East Coast of North America, the growth factor was only 1.69; on the West Coast, 2.23. These growth factors, when multiplied by the 1980 TEU volume at individual North American ports, give 1989 expected performance levels for the ports. Comparing the expected performance to the actual, it is found in the Canadian context that the big winner is Vancouver; the big loser is Saint John. Halifax and Montreal have outperformed their nearest US East Coast rivals but have not performed as well as southern ports on the Altantic Seaboard. These and other comparisons are made in order to describe how Canadian container ports have performed in the decade of the 1980s. The paper then speculates on how the ports will do in the future, based on a discussion of five factors: port facilities; inland transportation connections; shipping lines serving the ports; demand for container shipping; and legal arrangements between the United States and Canada.     

船舶大型化对航运和港口的影响

目前订造中的7 500 TEU以上的船舶有100多艘。其中许多船舶将于2007年下水,投入亚洲-欧洲和跨太平洋贸易航线的营运。“超级集装箱船”(VLCS)正在坚定地从概念走向现实。超过8 000TEU的船舶的投入使用,对班轮公司、航运贸易和集装箱码头提出了新的挑战。班轮公司应该通过削减一组环线中的船舶数目、改变挂靠港和重新组织航运网络的规划途径来应对挑战。先进枢纽港应该通过开发新概念的港口装卸系统和新概念码头来应对挑战。超大型集装箱船舶挂靠的港口不能仅仅是简单的枢纽港,同时必须成为物流平台。     

A game-theoretic analysis of competition among container port hubs: the case of Busan and Shanghai 1

Countries throughout the world, and especially within Asia, are investing heavily in container port infrastructure in the hopes of capturing a larger share of global shipping activity for their economies. Many existing ports are emphasizing developing the capacity to serve as a hub port, building deepwater berths with large terminals to facilitate transfer of containers from feeder ships to mother ships for intercontinental transport. We develop a game-theoretic best response framework for understanding how competitor ports will respond to development at a focus port, and whether the focus port will be able to capture or defend market share by building additional capacity. We apply this model to investment and competition currently occurring between the ports of Busan and Shanghai.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

Dynamics of liner shipping service scheduling and their impact on container port competition

Container ports provide the primary interface where physical exchange between buyers and sellers of containerised shipping capacity can be consolidated and realised. Consequently, ports that are able to complement and add value to the objectives of shipping lines and shippers will become focal points for containerised cargo flows. To evaluate container port competition, the authors propose a practical and direct approach based on revealed preferences of shipping lines with respect to container shipping service dynamics. The container shipping networks are generated as carriers formulate their service schedules to capitalise on opportunities that are presented by evolving container trade patterns along trade routes and relative changes in the competitive profile of the ports of call. Empirical results showed that this approach offers a deeper understanding on the workings and evolution of competitive dynamics between ports, which may not be obvious from observations of port performance at the aggregated level. Benefits of the approach also include raising awareness that policy makers should be aware of the need to understand the nature, extensity and intensity of competitive relationships between ports as they craft and implement policies to correct for the actual or perceived market failures in the industry.     

Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.     

Port e-Transformation,customer satisfaction and competitiveness

ABSTRACT

e-Transformation in container ports means port organization-wide innovative transformation encompassing internal and external value chains based on information and communication technology. There is a considerable theoretical literature on the impact of e-Transformation on business performance, but there is very little empirical study on its effectiveness in ports. The objective of this paper is to empirically investigate how e-Transformation in container port management can influence customer satisfaction and port competitiveness. The findings reveal that e-Transformation in container ports can affect customer satisfaction and port competitiveness through e-Workplace, customer relationship management and security, implying that container ports should make every effort to focus on e-transformation in these critical areas. Due to limited empirical studies in this area, the findings have provided an empirical support for the importance of e-Transformation in container terminal management and shed more light on how e-Transformation can affect customer satisfaction and port competitiveness.     

Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.     

An analysis of decision-making processes in multicultural maritime scenarios

This paper presents a simple formulation in the form of a pipe network for modelling the global container-shipping network. The cost-efficiency and movement-patterns of the current container-shipping network have been investigated using heuristic methods. The model is able to reproduce the overall incomes, costs, and container movement patterns for the industry as well as for the individual shipping lines and ports. It was found that the cost of repositioning empties is 27% of the total world fleet running cost and that overcapacity continues to be a problem. The model is computationally efficient. Implemented in the Java language, it takes one minute to run a full-scale network on a Pentium IV computer.     

The impact of dry port operations on container seaports competitiveness

The concepts of intermodal logistics and distribution networks have made integration of the inland freight distribution system essential for an efficient container seaport system. Inland components, such as dry ports, which exist within the seaport system, have become important in shaping the performance and competitive strategies of container seaports. Owing to the importance of interdependence between dry ports and container seaports, this paper aims to investigate the impact of dry port operations on container seaport competitiveness. It conducted an empirical study in Malaysia through 120 online surveys to key stakeholders of dry ports, including freight forwarders, shippers, seaports, rail operator, shipping lines, and haulers. The data collected were analysed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The results from EFA show that Malaysian dry port operations have impacts on seaport competitiveness. These include enhancing seaport performance, increasing service variations for seaports, improving seaport-hinterland proximity, increasing seaport trade volume, and enhancing seaport capacity.     

中国集装箱港口的现状与发展态势

通过对中国集装箱港口吞吐量与世界、亚洲、东亚地区的分析比较,论述了中国集装     

巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测

为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.     

On cost-efficiency of the global container shipping network

This paper presents a simple formulation in the form of a pipe network for modelling the global container-shipping network. The cost-efficiency and movement-patterns of the current container-shipping network have been investigated using heuristic methods. The model is able to reproduce the overall incomes, costs, and container movement patterns for the industry as well as for the individual shipping lines and ports. It was found that the cost of repositioning empties is 27% of the total world fleet running cost and that overcapacity continues to be a problem. The model is computationally efficient. Implemented in the Java language, it takes one minute to run a full-scale network on a Pentium IV computer.     

国际集装箱运输市场回顾及展望

2005年的国际航运市场总体发展相对良好,就国际集装箱运输市场而言,2005年市场发展的主要特点表现为:世界经济稳步增长,市场供需情况良好,箱货贸易量与运力投放量同步上升,市场运价高位整理,船公司收益普遍增长,租船市场依旧抢手,中国因素成为世界海运的核心动力。展望2006年,虽然存在许多不确定因素,但出现重大突发性事件的可能性较小,预计国际集装箱运输市场有望继续处于强势发展周期。     

Asian hub/feeder nets: the dynamics of restructuring

The emergence of hub/feeder networks in the Singapore-Japan corridor through the 1970s and 1980s reflected not only the rapid growth of containerized cargo in regional Southeast and East Asia but also the exceptional importance of Far East/transPacific and Far East/Europe mainline shipping services in structuring these networks. This paper argues that the mid-1990s is a defining moment in the restructuring of these networks; that the period represents, in fact, a convergence of a number of different though related trends impacting on the regional shipping market. More particularly, continuing high growth rates of containerized cargo have not only spawned new ports but have also increased the proportion of ports handling threshold volumes of containers for which mainline calls, rather than handling thfeeder operations, are justified. Further, the quite dramatic retionalization of already large container shipping lines into mergers and alliances bestows a new level of market power that is able to underwrite major changes in shipping schedules, port rotations and feeder linkages. This paper speculates that these developments are generating, and will continue to generate new, hierarchically organized port/shipping networks in which high order networks will include high efficiency/high cost operations; and lower order networks will include a mix of hub and direct-call ports that will focus on different market segments.     

Marketing management at the world's major ports

Recent technological developments in maritime transport, particularly in container shipping and larger vessels, are having major repercussions at ports the world over. The latest wave of innovations has increased the level of competition in maritime transport, in particular in port activities. Shippers have many more alternatives available, something that tends to increase the hinterland of each port, precisely by reducing captive hinterlands. Ports are now generally moving towards formulas in which private initiative has a bigger role to play. Increases in competition combined with growth in private initiatives highlight the usefulness of marketing tools in two ways. Externally, because they help to achieve throughputs from remote points of origin and destination, and internally, by aiding the proper coordination of business and organizational activity at a commercial port. The present paper is a transversal study of the current situation of marketing and quality tools at major ports, including the opinions of a range of port commercial and marketing managers. We have also tried to describe the differentiated groups to be found at ports, as a useful methodology for identifying the nearest competition or ports with similar characteristics.     

Marketing management at the world's major ports

Recent technological developments in maritime transport, particularly in container shipping and larger vessels, are having major repercussions at ports the world over. The latest wave of innovations has increased the level of competition in maritime transport, in particular in port activities. Shippers have many more alternatives available, something that tends to increase the hinterland of each port, precisely by reducing captive hinterlands. Ports are now generally moving towards formulas in which private initiative has a bigger role to play. Increases in competition combined with growth in private initiatives highlight the usefulness of marketing tools in two ways. Externally, because they help to achieve throughputs from remote points of origin and destination, and internally, by aiding the proper coordination of business and organizational activity at a commercial port. The present paper is a transversal study of the current situation of marketing and quality tools at major ports, including the opinions of a range of port commercial and marketing managers. We have also tried to describe the differentiated groups to be found at ports, as a useful methodology for identifying the nearest competition or ports with similar characteristics.