Integrating banks’ decision on financing dry bulk shipping: a multivariable approach

ABSTRACT

Shipping is characterized by extreme changes in revenues, operating expenses and asset values, making shipping banks’ final decision for financing shipping market considerably harder. This paper develops a practical decision tool based on the estimation of the credibility factor in the decision-making process, each bank’s policy, and the most significant variables arising from both its operating environment and the dry bulk market. Revealed relationships between bank’s internal environment, its own policy, and dry-bulk shipping market conditions through GDP growth of China constitute a newly presented decision framework in shipping finance. The values of credibility factor implicate either an aggressive or passive defensive strategy taking into account the GDP China changes: Consistent with the economic growth of China, a bank’s holds an aggressive policy if the credibility coefficient is about one. On the other hand, the model predicts that a less aggressive policy in combination with the increase of China’s GDP would drive to the decrease of bank’s loan grants.     

Factoring a real value of cargo in port investment and funding decisions

Ports are marine gateways to economic activities. Ports’ ability to perform services depends on their facilities, harbor conditions, and other factors. Generally, ports have control over their facilities but must compete for funding to improve them. As for waterways, in the U.S., a Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund was established to fund dredging, which levies a 0.125% cargo value tax on most shippers using U.S. coastal and Great Lakes harbors. Yet, commonly, a gross tonnage metric is used to allocate the fund’s resources, resulting in under-maintenance of some harbors. This, reportedly, deters additional port funding and hinders valuable commerce. Supplemental economic metrics, such as value of commerce or cargo, can improve port financing decisions, but such data is not readily available. Container ports collect cargo value data in nominal terms, but bulk ports do not. When making economic decisions, however, real values must be used. Further, when allocating resources, decision-makers must be able to assess ports over time and relative to each other. Conforming to these criteria, this paper develops three port financing indicators based on a real value of cargo and illustrates their calculations using the U.S. Port of Duluth-Superior as a case study.     

船舶防污染作业等级评定量化研究

文章应用模糊数学评估方法,建立船舶防污染作业等级评定模型,为量化研究船舶防污染作业单位安全状况提供了具体的方法和依据。最后结合辖区实际进行了验证。     

论我国房地产按揭中银行风险的法律防范

随着我国房地产业的发展,房地产按揭这种新的融资购楼方式日渐普遍。但按揭在我国毕竟是新生事物,相关的法律法规并不完善,因而给实际操作带来很大不便。尤其是贷款银行的权益很难得到有效保护。有鉴于此,笔者以此为研究对象,通过对房地产按揭涵义及法律特点的剖析,重点探讨贷款银行风险的法律防范问题。在此基础上,借鉴发达国家的先进经验,具体结合我国当前房地产按揭的现状,进而提出为完善我国贷款银行风险法律防范的建议措施。     

Heuristic estimation of container stacking and reshuffling operations under the containership delay factor and mega-ship challenge

This paper addresses a highly researched area, the reshuffling problem in ports, using a new paradigm-modified containership service order in light of credit risk assessment. Container stacking and reshuffling operations can cause ship delays and additional risk. In deep-sea terminals, outbound containers are tightly stacked according to the retrieval sequence. Due to lack of space, terminals stack containers in multiple tiers. This means any delay in the arrival of a ship can impose extra handlings and reshuffling of containers delaying future cargo handling. This paper addresses the reshuffling problem with a concept similar to the credit scoring and rating of creditworthiness used in the banking industry. By utilizing this comparison to the banking credit risk concept, a heuristic estimation model is proposed that illustrates the side effects of unscheduled modifications in containership service order. Further, the mega-ship trend amplifies the reshuffling debate. Probability of delay, reshuffles given delay, and call size at delay are introduced as the three-point risk metrics of the model. Numerical simulations illustrate the functionality to develop terminal stacking strategies as well as emphasize the mega-ship phenomenon and its side effects on terminals (i.e. yard operation deadlock).     

苏南运河船行波现场观测及物理模型试验研究

对现场观测的苏南运河镇江段船行波相关资料采用物理模型试验进行了验证,并分析比较了500 t和1000 t货船在不同载重、不同航行线路情况下在直立岸壁附近产生的船行波最大波高与航行速度的关系,相关数据可供设计参考。     

论船舶抵押担保之法律性质

船舶抵押权是船舶融资担保中最常见、最重要的担保形式，它能够在为银行提供足够融资担保的同时而不影响船舶的使用，向来为船东和银行所青睐。本文即对船舶抵押权的内涵、抵押标的之界定、担保债权之范围以及抵押之效力进行法律阐释，以期对船舶抵押权之法律性质有全面的了解。     

完善我国中小企业融资的信用体系

中小企业在各国(或地区)的经济活动中,有着极其重要的地位,对于促进经济发展也发挥着很重要的作用,在保证国民经济持续健康发展和维护社会稳定方面,发挥着越来越大的作用。但是,现阶段中小企业融资难成为了我国中小企业发展过程中的瓶颈,笔者尝试从完善信用体系的角度,提出了相应解决我国中小企业难的对策。     

论无单放货诉讼时效的起算点

国际贸易中因卖方提交的单据不符合信用证的规定遭银行退单是常有的事,然而一般此时船舶抵达卸货港已有时日,若承运人无单放货,卖方向承运人提起无单放货之诉,其诉讼时效究竟是以船舶抵达卸货港具备交付条件之日起计算,还是以卖方银行被退单后持有正本提单向承运人主张交货之日起计算,司法实践中不无争议,笔者认为,从公平合理等角度分析,应以后者起算为宜。     

Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations

In this study, we use a sample of 192 listed shipping companies and employ a logit model in order to investigate the determinants of the probability of default. We enhance our analysis by isolating not only the cases of company liquidations but also those cases where companies had to change their legal status due to warning liquidity signals. Our key findings are in line with prior research and moreover we depict a changing trend in the marginal effects of relevant variables, on the probability of default. We further show, through an empirical application, how the obtained results can be used in a managerial decision-making process and in a bank credit underwriting process in order to assess the creditworthiness of a shipping company.     

产业链模式和途径的思考与探索

振华重工作为设备或项目总承包商牵头,结合长三角区域几百家企业,形成了一个产品配套的产业链。产业链内的合作形式主要体现为上下游供应、上游向下游输送服务、下游向上游反馈信息等。振华重工利用其品牌、规模、技术、资金等方面的优势,带动配套供应商创新研发、提高质量、开拓市场,同时保证供货周期、降低成本。这种相互配合在提高产业链内企业的竞争力方面起到了较大的促进作用。     

An analysis of the overcapacity problem under the decentralized management system of container ports in Japan

This article is concerned with an analytical summary of how the Japanese container ports have been taking place overcapacity problem in a systematic way. It focuses on institutional aspects of the overcapacity problem from the viewpoint of accounting cost and opportunity cost. The first issue arises due to the port authority's accounting system and insufficient disclosures of financial statements of port business to the port users and taxpayers. The second issue is inherently related to resource allocation between the state government and local governments through the budget system and income distribution programmes. Since a proper allocation of economic resources in the port sector as a whole will depend on investment decisions being taken within a coherent framework for ensuring that costs are passed on to port users, these issues are closely related to each other in reality. Although the budget system is completely controlled by the state government, the local governments have authoritative power over port planning, financing, and management, which is assured by the Ports and Harbours Law. The overcapacity problem appears to be an inevitable result.     

An analysis of the overcapacity problem under the decentralized management system of container ports in Japan

This article is concerned with an analytical summary of how the Japanese container ports have been taking place overcapacity problem in a systematic way. It focuses on institutional aspects of the overcapacity problem from the viewpoint of accounting cost and opportunity cost. The first issue arises due to the port authority's accounting system and insufficient disclosures of financial statements of port business to the port users and taxpayers. The second issue is inherently related to resource allocation between the state government and local governments through the budget system and income distribution programmes. Since a proper allocation of economic resources in the port sector as a whole will depend on investment decisions being taken within a coherent framework for ensuring that costs are passed on to port users, these issues are closely related to each other in reality. Although the budget system is completely controlled by the state government, the local governments have authoritative power over port planning, financing, and management, which is assured by the Ports and Harbours Law. The overcapacity problem appears to be an inevitable result.     

Marine Protected Area Management Effectiveness: Progress and Lessons in the Philippines

Quantifying progress in management of marine protected areas (MPAs) is crucial to marine conservation and fisheries management in the Philippines. This study compiles data on the status, occurrence, and management gaps of MPAs through coordination with multiple organizations supporting and guiding MPAs in the Philippines. MPA management effectiveness was measured using a MPA Rating System. Since 2002 the modal MPA rating levels increased from level 1 (initiated) to level 4 (sustained) in 2008/9. This upward trend is attributed to factors that promoted both the establishment and improved management of MPAs. Analysis indicated that: (1) most MPAs struggle with budgetary constraints or lack of sustainable financing and (2) overall the MPAs are being maintained and progressing with notable improvement in management despite a range of difficulties encountered during the implementation process. For MPAs in the Visayan Region for which biophysical data were available, the MPA Rating System was used to assess the effectiveness of local government capacity building on MPA coral reef health. Our results suggest that MPAs with higher ratings are likely to have better reef health conditions.     

Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach

This paper uses a real option approach to analyze terminal investment timing decisions for situations in which a port faces competition from its rivals in an uncertain market. We propose a network model to describe carriers’ cargo routing decisions and competition among rival ports. We then transform this model into a multicommodity flow problem and use the column generation algorithm to solve it. After obtaining a port’s possible future annual revenues and the potential net present value (NPV) for its terminal construction project through the network model, we adopt the expanded NPV rule and transform the investment timing decision into an optimal stopping problem. A least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to find the investing probabilities for future years. The proposed models are applied to a steel cargo terminal investment case in the Port of Bengbu in Anhui province of China. The impacts on the investing probability and the expanded NPV of changes in the demand volatility, the initial investment and the port discharging rate are analyzed to provide managerial insights for port managers.     

构建和完善港口基础设施系统投融资体制

在分析当前我国港口基础设施系统投融资体制现状的基础上,根据公共经济学理论对港口设施系统要素按投资来源、投资方式进行了合理划分,并充分借鉴国外港口建设的投融资体制,提出应根据不同类型项目分类融资的思想,最后给出了建立与完善市场经济条件下港口投融资体制的具体建议。     

浅谈生态护坡在沿江环境综合整治工程中的应用

随着我国西部开发和城市建设的扩展,对河流等水资源和水环境产生一定的破坏。为改善城市居住条件和保护生态环境,许多城市对沿江环境进行综合整治。传统混凝土挡墙和护坡的结构形式,虽然能够满足结构稳定性和防洪要求,但其将原有的绿色河岸硬化为灰色混凝土,破坏了原有的生态居住环境,并使得景观效果很差。为改善目前环境整治的弊端,本研究探讨一种新型的亲环境生态护坡结构的应用,并结合工程实际分析护坡、护砌要求,提出生态护坡设计要点,可为提高环境综合整治效果和改善生态环境提供参考。     

航行气垫船激励均匀水深浮冰层位移响应的数值模拟

在均匀水深条件下,基于 ALE算法对匀速航行气垫船激励浮冰层的位移响应问题进行数值模拟。计算不同气垫船速度和河道岸壁宽度条件下的冰层位移响应,获得对应于冰层最大垂向位移变形情况下的气垫船临界速度。计算结果与理论解和试验结果符合良好,验证计算方法的有效性。计算结果表明：在临界速度时冰层下陷位移达到最大,而河道岸壁的存在将会使临界速度减小。     

Investor herding behaviour in globally listed shipping stocks

ABSTRACT

This study undertakes one of the first empirical attempts to investigate and contribute a set of innovative findings to investor herding behavior and herding spillover effects in globally listed shipping company stock returns. Distinguishing between OECD and Non-OECD markets, herding behavior is tested on a diversified set of shipping companies traded in international equity markets, over different business cycle phases, financial crises, and external shocks. A set of dynamic models, well established in the relevant behavioral finance literature, is implemented. Empirical evidence indicates investor herding behavior in shipping stock returns and herding spillover effects between different shipping sectors, albeit not robust in all cases. These challenging findings can have a material impact on efficient investment and financing decisions of shipping market players.