An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance.     

A fuzzy failure mode and effects approach to analyse concentrated inspection campaigns on board ships

ABSTRACT

Maritime actions against substandard operations of ships are a great deal of memorandum of understanding (MoUs) under regional basis agreements among port state control (PSC) organisations. Herein, concentrated inspection campaigns (CIC), performed by the different members of MoUs in certain periods, are a monitoring strategy to effectively control the core operational matters encountered in fire-safety systems, propulsion and auxiliary machinery system, lifesaving appliances, working conditions on board ships, etc. This paper proposes a quantified maritime safety analysis based on fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to evaluate CIC database of MoUs in order to achieve advance creative solutions. Demonstration studies are performed on the special database on fire-safety system deficiencies. Since the fuzzy FMEA outcomes point out the risk prioritisation numbers and relevant control options, the paper attempts to transform CIC feedback into useful information in terms of enhancing the ship PSC inspection concept (e-PSC inspection). The paper theoretically contributes to safety analysis methods in literature while demonstration of e-PSC inspections offers an insight into maritime industry in safety improvement.     

A method for extracting key performance indicators from maritime safety management norms

The maritime transportation industry currently employs several mandatory and non-mandatory norms of organizational safety management. These safety norms are commonly included in integrated maritime safety management systems, which aim at developing, monitoring, controlling and improving the safety of all related shipping operations. These systems are typically evaluated by following key performance indicators, which enable defined measures for various safety management components. However, the identification of indicators addressing safety management requirements constitutes a complex and generally unsystematic process for safety managers in the maritime industry. This article proposes a new method to assess the guidelines available in maritime safety management norms. The proposed method is applied to assess the content of two maritime safety management norms. The aim of this assessment is to identify a set of maritime safety management indicators that can systematically measure the most relevant components of maritime safety management. The application of this method resulted in the identification of 53 key performance indicators for monitoring and reviewing 23 identified safety management components that are commonly integrated into the functioning of maritime safety management systems. The method proposed provides guidance to accurately capture the actual aim and function of the key performance indicators. Furthermore, the indicators and safety components obtained with this method can be adopted as the basis for a safety management system and/or for the analysis of a safety management system already established in the industry.     

海事机构实施强制清污条件及清污费用求偿的思考

随着海上运输业的持续发展,船舶溢油事故风险也随之增加,发生船舶污染事故后,海事机构有权实施强制清污避免或者减少污染损害,但是对实施强制清污的条件及由此产生清污费用的求偿路径,理论与实务界存在诸多争议。文中由一起厦门海域发生的强制清污案例引发思考,从实务角度出发,用推演法分析实施强制清污的几种情况,探讨各清污主体之间的关系,得到清污单位直诉清污义务人合理结论,并给出实施该追偿路径的相关建议。     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

船舶机舱安全评估分析与展望

把安全评估理论应用到船舶机舱设备中,是海事界较为前沿的课题。借鉴其他行业较为成熟的安全评估模式,对当前海事界可以采用的评估模式进行了综合和比较,并指出基于风险分析的综合安全评价模式较适合对船舶机舱设备进行安全评估,最后指出了基于风险分析的综合安全评价模式所面临的问题,为其发展指明了方向。     

Safety in Greek coastal shipping: The role and risk of human factor revisited

The comprehensive analysis presented in this paper investigates the links and comparative assets between human factor and other factors that are important determinants of maritime transport risk. In this outline, the identification of factors, such as age and ship size, that can be statistically linked (i.e. statistical significance) to whether an accident in a passenger vessel can be attributed to human factor or other causes is addressed accordingly. This way, the role of human factor in relation to safety of Greek coastal shipping is revealed and the spotlight is able to focus on the various aspects and points that manifest the importance of human element in the maritime industry. The risk assessment of the transportation with Greek passenger ships is being used in order for the safety level of Greek coastal shipping to be adequately estimated. Moreover, the comparison between the values of risk for accidents caused by human factor and those attributed to other causes is an established way to bring to the fore the unbroken relationship between the human factor and marine accidents’ consequences. The paper is concluded with interesting insights and comments drafted through the aforementioned tasks.     

A connectivity reliability-cost approach for path selection in the maritime transportation of China’s crude oil imports

The focus of this paper is the selection of paths for the maritime transportation of crude oil. In addition to transportation cost, the nodes in a maritime transportation network are always affected by extreme events. Therefore, connectivity reliability must be considered during path selection. In this paper, uncertainty variables are introduced to describe the connectivity reliability of nodes under the influence of extreme events, and an uncertain bi-objective programming model with connectivity reliability maximization and transportation cost minimization as objectives is established for path selection. China’s maritime transportation network for crude oil imports is used as a case study to validate the model, the effects of variations in the model parameters on path selection, transportation cost and connectivity reliability are discussed in the case study. The research results provide a basis on which for government decision makers to better plan crude oil transportation strategies.     

探讨VTS在水上危险货物运输监管中的作用

随着现代石油化工业和现代航运业的快速发展．由水路运输的危险货物的数量和品种越来越多，水路运输在给危险货物运输带来便捷的同时，也给水域环境带来了严重的威胁．文章从预防船舶交通事故和控制船舶污染的角度、对VTS在危险货物运输监管中可以发挥的作用进行探讨。     

船舶油污损害赔偿评估的模糊类比分析法

根据油污事故损害赔偿案例之间所具有的类比性,以及事故产生损害程度与溢油种类、数量、油膜扩散面积、受污海岸类型和长度等指标密切相关的特点,提出油污损害赔偿评估的多指标模糊类比分析方法,通过等评估的油污事故与历史赔偿案例之间的多指标综合类比进行关于损害程度的模糊排序,从而分析得到的此次油污事故的损害程度大小及应赔偿索赔的范围和具体数值,与直接统计评估法相比,分析方法所需要的数据和资料较少而且易得,评估     

墨西哥湾漏油事件中溢油应对处理方案研究

伴随着我国能源需求及海上石油运输量的大幅增长,我国海上发生溢油事故的风险也不断加大,针对海上大型溢油事故制定有效的溢油应对处理方案已成为我国的当务之急.该文通过对2010年4月发生在墨西哥湾的英国石油公司“深水地平线”平台泄漏事件进行研究,分析收集了此次事故过程中美国采用的主要溢油应急处理方案及值得借鉴的手段,为我国研究海上溢油应急方案提供了重要的参考和依据.     

港口船舶溢油环境风险评价方法研究

在港口装卸作业以及船舶航行过程中,由于各种原因可能引发溢油事故,对周边海域环境造成损害。港口船舶溢油环境风险评价对船舶溢油的防治起到了积极的作用,但目前还有很多不完善的地方。通过对相关资料的分析研究,提出改进措施和建议,以期进一步提高港口船舶溢油环境风险评价工作的水平。     

船舶溢油风险评估方法的探讨

船舶溢油风险评估在船舶防污染管理方面应用十分广泛,但如何进行评估,尚没有一个统一的方法。笔者在承担船舶溢油风险评估项目过程中,对风险评估方法进行了一些探索,文中将根据自己的体会,就风险评估中的一些难点问题与大家讨论。     

Consistency in the development of performance assessment methods in the maritime domain

The maritime industry is considered to be a backbone of the global economy. It is therefore imperative to ensure that maritime operations run safely and efficiently. Assessment of maritime performance is necessary for designers and engineers to be able to pinpoint the weakest links in the system and make impactful system improvements. The current article presents a systematic quantitative literature review of research on performance assessment in the maritime industry with the goal of establishing an understanding of accuracy and consistency in the development of methods used to assess performance. The review focuses on four major segments within the industry—port logistics, ship handling, safety and environmental research—and investigates their uses in developing accurate and consistent performance assessment methods. After the completion of an exclusion process, 62 articles published in a wide range of academic journals were used in the analysis. Two important conclusions were drawn from the analysis. First, performance assessment is generally consistent throughout the maritime industry; most papers used accurate and consistent approaches to develop the methods (n?=?43). A subsequent bivariate analysis revealed a call for increased attention to the development of assessment methods within the maritime segment of ship handling. The current study suggests and discusses certain directions with regard to assessment research in the maritime industry.     

Maritime Statistics: a new forum for practitioners

This paper analyses the past, present and future of the maritime transportation industry in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian seaborne trade and the shipping capacity are analysed for the past 15 years. Relationships between the declining Saudi shipping capacity and other economic measures are identified. Analysis of the Saudi Arabian maritime transportation is performed with respect to the world carrier fleets and models are developed to determine the theoretical shipping capacity required for transportation of the national seaborne cargo. Forecasts of the future shipping capacity requirement for the Kingdom are also presented. This paper illustrates the general approach for analysing a country's maritime industry and thus could help other researchers in that respect.     

Maritime accident risk estimation for sea lanes based on a dynamic Bayesian network

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation has become increasingly important with the development of international economics and trade. This paper introduces a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to facilitate the estimation of the dynamic emergency risk in sea lanes. The DBN model is a novel model that can efficiently represent and infer complex stochastic knowledge. To construct this model, available data, which were collected from emergency investigation reports by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), are employed in conjunction with expert knowledge to develop and demonstrate a BN; an evidence theory approach is applied to calculate the prior probability with the help of historical data; the conditional probability is learned by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm; and the transition probability is obtained by a Markov model. Finally, the Viterbi algorithm is adopted to estimate emergency risk. The emergencies that occurred in the Indian Ocean from 2009 to 2018 were used as a case study for risk estimation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify significant influential factors. The results show that the sea lane risk in the Indian Ocean fluctuates within a small range, presenting an overall downward trend over time. These findings provide a reference for maritime stakeholders to make proper decisions.     

Applying cost—benefit analysis to marine safety measures

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) provides a framework for consistent and rational decision-making. It can greatly assist the appraisal of marine safety and environmental measures, such as those recommended by the Donaldson Report. Combined with other techniques e.g. risk assessment, and noting the particular features of the maritime context, CBA is a valuable aid to thinking. The Department of Transport's emergency towing study is using it to weigh up the pros and cons of deploying tugs to protect the U.K. coast from oil and chemical pollution.     

国内两起干散货船自沉事故引发的思考

干散货船在水上货物运输中有着举足轻重的地位,然而在繁忙运输中与其相关的事故也频频发生,文中通过分析国内两起干散货船自沉事故背后潜藏的隐患和问题,提出强化航运企业、船舶和监管部门各方薄弱环节管理的建议和意见,以期共同为航运业发展和海上安全运输贡献力量.     

Introduction to the special issue on maritime security

The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 heightened awareness about the vulnerability of all modes of transportation to terrorist attack. The issue of maritime security has therefore become a major concern in the international maritime sector over the past several years. Globalization has led to a strong growth in seaborne trade; however, it simultaneously increases vulnerability to not only terrorism but also international criminal activities that threaten the world's supply chain. For example, in 2008, the rise in piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden brought the issue of maritime security to the forefront of international debate. In addition to the direct impact on ships, crews and cargoes, and on the maritime industry and governments, piracy also threatens global seaborne trade, and has an impact on energy security and the environment [UNCTAD, 2009, Review of Maritime Transport 2009 (New York: United Nations)]. Maritime piracy can pose substantial risks to seaborne trades, with considerable commodities, ranging between raw materials and energy to high-value manufactured products, being shipped between global economic powerhouses [FU, X. W., NG, A. K. Y., LAU, Y. Y., forthcoming, The impacts of maritime piracy on global economic development: The case of Somalia. Maritime Policy and Management]. Maritime security management, including the definition of security, maritime risk assessment, security measures, the regulation and policy of maritime security in shipping and port-related business operations has been receiving growing attention, both in practice and research.