Modelling with joint choice of ports and countries of origin and destination: application to Colombian ports

Literature has focused on studying port choice independently or as an element of a supply chain without considering the joint selection with the country of origin/destination of the imports/exports. However, the characteristics and location of a port may make it more attractive to mobilise more freight from/to some particular countries rather than others, making the port choice decision dependent on the country of origin/destination of the cargo. This article proposes advanced econometric models to evaluate simultaneously port choice and the country of origin/destination choice for Colombian imports and exports. Findings suggest that for imports and exports domestic freight rate is the most important variable for the joint choice process. Also, for exports, maritime transit time is more relevant than for imports, while for the frequency of shipping lines the opposite is true. The existence of a trade agreement and the gross domestic product per capita also have a significant influence on the election of a country for exports/imports.     

Future of the shipping dialogue in UNCTAD

UNCAD has played a central role in the development of international shipping policies, particularly those of developing countries. While comprehensively addressing all shipping issues affecting both the industry and the maritime trade of developing countries. UNCTAD has concentrated its greatest efforts on policies designed to achieve those objectives. These policies also reflected the then existing international environment of confrontation. East/West ideological conflicts and the North/South divide. The results were far from satisfactory, although a number of international agreement were reached under the auspices of UNCTAD. The end of the cold war and the emergence of the single economic system (the market place) has brought about far-reaching changes in UNCTAD, its secretariat, its intergovernmental machinery and the substantive content of its secretariat, its intergovernmental machinery and the substantive content of its deliberations. It is expected that the shipping dialogue in UNCTAD in the 1990s will be significantly different in content and structure. This article attempts to point to possible courses of action that will be taken in UNCTAD fora in the area of shipping in the context of promoting a competitive services in developing countries.     

美国海运业的立法及其对我国的借鉴意义

美国是市场经济高度发达的国家,也是世界海运大国,其海运业立法对世界各国影响巨大。认真研究美国海运立法,对于我国在加入世贸组织后如何加强海运立法和参加WTO新一轮服务贸易谈判,都有十分重要的意义。     

The growth of fleets registered in the newly-emerging maritime countries and maritime crises

This paper suggests the existence of a feedback relationship between the dynamic entrance of less-developed countries in shipping and the prolongation and deepening of maritime crises. The duration and extent of the transitional period of crisis depends also on the specific terms of the 'succession' procedure between fleets with different cost levels. During the last major maritime crisis, nations at a less advanced stage of development entered the maritime industry producing a service that had become—more or less—'standardized', following the Vernon product cycle more than all other cycles. The distribution of world tonnage among the different groups of countries underwent major changes as the effects of the economic crisis after 1973, which coincided with developments in the supply of tonnage, created favourable conditions for the rise of the lower cost fleets of developing countries, in a feedback relationship. The restoration of freight levels during the late 80s and early 90s, which was accompanied by a certain stabilization in the various groups of countries' shares in the world fleet, corroborates from the opposite direction the hypothesis of a close interrelationship between maritime crisis and changes in the international hierarchy in shipping.     

Development of Motorways of the Sea in the Adriatic region

Freight volumes are increasing worldwide, following almost the same growth rate as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This has resulted in congested sections of the road system and increase of traffic accidents. Consequently, several governments in Europe are promoting alternative modes of transport. Besides the use of railways, the European Union is promoting the use of maritime transport for short distances. This initiative, ‘Motorways of the Sea (MoS)’, aims at the establishment of more efficient and competitive maritime services between different countries. The present paper analyzes the development of an MoS network in the East Adriatic area, linking the Greek Ports of Igoumenitsa and Patras in the Ionian Sea. This is done by identifying financially viable MoS corridors, servicing the freight and passenger demand of the area. Initially, the freight and passenger flows of MoS in the East Adriatic/Ionian Seas region, based on the application of the four-step methodology for transport planning, are estimated. Then, the financial viability of each MoS is elaborated, based on the estimated flows. Hence, the network of MoS services is determined for the area. Thus, the paper provides a useful tool to maritime operators, port authorities and policy makers to investigate the financial viability of an MoS network.     

Rethinking maritime privatization in Africa

While recognizing the need for increased participation of the private sector in the maritime industry of developing countries, there is a need to go beyond the call for privatization in terms of mere change of ownership from state to private sector as the only solution to the inefficiency of the maritime industry in developing countries. This limited understanding of the maritime problems of these countries abounds in the literature on maritime privatization. This study departs from this approach and focuses on the political economy of the maritime industry, and suggests that maritime privatization will not necessarily result in increased efficiency of the divested maritime enterprises. Rather, it argues that maritime problems in these countries have less to do with ownership than with the structural constraints in world shipping together with internal management and local ~olitics. The maritime industrv in West and Central Africa is used as a case studv. and recommendations such as selective privatization, 'programme contract', and most importantly, corporatization, are suggested as alternative strategies that could enhance maritime privatization and the development of the maritime industry in developing countries.     

The growth and patterns of international trade

Over the last 40 years, there has been an unprecedented growth in trade amongst countries, and the growth in trade shows no sign of slowing down. The increases in trade have put tremendous pressure on the maritime and port industries, and these industries have responded with innovations, investment, and greater productivity. International trade and maritime trade are synonyms, and an understanding of the determinants of international trade is central to understanding maritime trade. In this paper, we provide a review of the international trade literature with a focus on the determinants of trade and the evolution of trade modeling. We then present a broad overview of the extent and growth of trade in the context of primary determinants. The basic results are: (1) Trade is growing at a phenomenal rate; (2) Trade is dominated by relatively few countries who tend to remain dominant; (3) While trade of all products is growing, there are large differences in the growth rates, but yet, there is stability in the relative sizes of product markets; and (4) Over the last 40 years, trade has changed from major flows between the US and Europe to major flows between Asia and the US.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

Monetary values of transport service attributes: land versus maritime ro-ro transport. An application using adaptive stated preferences

The objective of this work is that of illustrating a methodology to derive, in terms of trade-offs, the relative values of transport service attributes for logistics operators. In particular, the analysis yields insights on the preferences for time-savings, frequency and reliability of the transport service in terms of price, of a sample of freight forwarders located in the South of Italy. The data is gathered using an Adaptive Stated Preference application and the estimates are obtained through a Tobit ML estimator on both company specific data and pooled data. The results show that frequency is the most highly rated characteristic of the service together with reliability. The value of time is significantly lower in both cases. The outcome is consistent across estimations and, substantially in line with the outcome of previous studies carried out on operators active at different levels of the transport-logistic chain. Until now, in fact, studies have been carried out uniquely on carriers or producers. The selection of freight forwarders allows to shed light on a segment of the market that accounts for more than half of the transport-related decisions. Furthermore, the present study focuses on a comparison between all land transport and maritime ro-ro alternatives, in line with the growing interest on the integration among transport modes. The output signals both the absence of any a priori preclusion for ro-ro maritime services and the extremely important role that frequency of service assumes for the development and the establishment of maritime services as realistic alternatives to all land transport.     

Merchant fleet development by legislation: lessons from West and Central Africa

In the late 1960s and early 1970s, several developing maritime nations began to invoke their 'legitimate right' to carry, in their own vessels, cargo generated by their own import and export trades as one way to reverse their underdevelopment and dependency on traditional maritime nations. Consequently, they embarked on the establishment and development of national merchant fleets by means of cargo reservation legislation and flag discrimination practices. West and Central African states have pursued a vigorous policy of merchant fleet development for over two decades. This study examines some of the cargo reservation policies and flag discrimination practices in West and Central Africa and concludes that these two measures alone are insufficient to build up a significant merchant marine. Merchant fleet development depends equally on the resolution of problems such as shortage of ship finance or capital, disruptive bureaucratic politics among the state agencies concerned with shipping, low volume of trade, and contradictory and ambivalent fiscal and macroeconomic policies in these countries that impede the development of the maritime sector.     

Russia's waterborne trade and transport: issues in market transformation

During the Soviet era most of the Union's international non-oil trade was transported over water. Following the former Soviet Union's break-up, the share of water transport in accomodating Russia's trade has become modest, as the railways carry most goods that are traded domestically or with the new republics of the Commonwealth of Independence States, which are now treated as foreign countries. Adjusting the Russian Federation's water transport industry and related infrastructure to the changed geo-political and regional economic conditions proves difficult. While the country inherited a fair share of the former Soviet merchant fleet, it is deprived of port assets which were originally built to serve all-Union trades but are now located in other republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Major reforms are required to streamline the provision of port services and the ports' commercial performance. The Russian Government took several steps in 1992 which effectively put the national water transport carriers on a commercial footing. The effect has been that many carriers chose to leave the national transport scence and engage in trades which do not include Russia. The Government is now confronted with the need to reduce dependence on foreign-owned vessels and to modernize the national merchant fleet. Difficult policy decisions have to reverse these trends so that national maritime industry asstes become more available to meet the country's needs.     

世界石油市场和中国海运量现状及发展预测

概述了国际原油生产消耗和贸易、进出口主要国家与地区及海运量航线基本情况,进行了国际成品油海运市场分析和中国原油进口量与国内成品油海运量预测,以期在总体上为中国石油多渠道稳定供应安全和港航油运企业发展决策提供借鉴。     

Some properties of international maritime statistics

This paper tests two fundamental hypotheses concerning international maritime statistics. The first one deals with the question of stationary of the maritime market statistics. The second hypothesis tested is the assumption that the international maritime statistical time series are not distributed according to a normal of Guassian probability law, but rather belong to the same family of distributions with distinctly different critical parameters. Through well documented statistical methods, the paper concludes that the international freight rates observed on a day to day basis are generated by a random walk process. The paper finds that the shipping industry's conventioal wisdom is essentially correct. 'Last done' is as good a forecast of tomorrow's freight rate as any other generated by more sophisticated forecasting methods. Furthermore, freight rates and secondhand tonnage prices fluctuate closely together. The freight rates are generated by stochastic processes fully described by the Paretian family of distributions. The critical parameters of these distribution, the characteristic exponents, are such that the risk conscious ship operator can indeed reduce his exposure to risk by securing a correct set of freight rate contracts.     

我国国际货运代理责任保险探讨

近年来,随着国家经济和对外贸易的迅速增长,国际货运代理业在市场竞争中得到迅速发展。国际货运代理市场的全面对外开放给国际货运代理业带来了发展的机遇,但随之而来的是激烈的竞争和难以预测的风险。国际货运代理责任保险制度作为防范和规避国际货运代理风险和责任的有效制度在西方发达国家已极度盛行,而在我国却甚少有人问津。因此,本文从国际货运代理和责任保险的基本概念出发,联系我国国际货运代理责任保险的现状,对国际货运代理责任保险制度在我国的设立作了简单的论述。     

Some properties of international maritime statistics

This paper tests two fundamental hypotheses concerning international maritime statistics. The first one deals with the question of stationary of the maritime market statistics. The second hypothesis tested is the assumption that the international maritime statistical time series are not distributed according to a normal of Guassian probability law, but rather belong to the same family of distributions with distinctly different critical parameters. Through well documented statistical methods, the paper concludes that the international freight rates observed on a day to day basis are generated by a random walk process. The paper finds that the shipping industry's conventioal wisdom is essentially correct. ‘Last done’ is as good a forecast of tomorrow's freight rate as any other generated by more sophisticated forecasting methods. Furthermore, freight rates and secondhand tonnage prices fluctuate closely together. The freight rates are generated by stochastic processes fully described by the Paretian family of distributions. The critical parameters of these distribution, the characteristic exponents, are such that the risk conscious ship operator can indeed reduce his exposure to risk by securing a correct set of freight rate contracts.     

Who is safe and who is at risk: a study of 20-year-record on accident total loss in different flags

The study examines 20-years of data on 36 world principal fleets and on worldfleets in general, analyses their developments, and particularly their safety records in terms of accidental total loss rates. This study confirms that the open-registry ships tend toward substandard ships. However, some open-registry countries' safety records are quite acceptable. It finds that the safety record of developing maritime countries as a group is better than that of developed maritime countries, of which some are worse than the world average.     

Who is safe and who is at risk: a study of 20-year-record on accident total loss in different flags

The study examines 20-years of data on 36 world principal fleets and on worldfleets in general, analyses their developments, and particularly their safety records in terms of accidental total loss rates. This study confirms that the open-registry ships tend toward substandard ships. However, some open-registry countries' safety records are quite acceptable. It finds that the safety record of developing maritime countries as a group is better than that of developed maritime countries, of which some are worse than the world average.     

海峡两岸海上货物运输合同立法之比较——兼论《中华人民共和国海商法》第4章的修改

通过比较海峡两岸海上货物运输合同立法,对两岸立法的异同加以分析,提出我国在修改《中华人民共和国海商法》第4章的过程中,可在租船合同、运费等方面借鉴台湾地区的相关立法,以期完善我国《海商法》,促进两岸经贸往来。     

集装箱货运仿真模型在珠三角港港口投资方案评估(英文)

In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), there is severe competition between container ports, particularly those in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, for collecting international maritime container cargo. In addition, the second phase of the Nansha terminal in Guangzhou’s port and the first phase of the Da Chang Bay container terminal in Shenzhen opened last year. Under these circumstances, there is an increasing need to quantitatively measure the impact these infrastructure investments have on regional cargo flows. The analysis should include the effects of container terminal construction, berth deepening, and access road construction. The authors have been developing a model for international cargo simulation (MICS) which can simulate the movement of cargo. The volume of origin-destination (OD) container cargo in the East Asian region was used as an input, in order to evaluate the effects of international freight transportation policies. This paper focuses on the PRD area and, by incorporating a more detailed network, evaluates the impact of several infrastructure investment projects on freight movement.