Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the cyclical nature of container shipping market represented by a containerized freight index and proposes a predictive cyclical model of the market. In contrast to the traditional spectral analysis (univariate), system dynamics reflect the drivers of the market in both supply and demand side, and therefore, it is a multi-variate system equilibrium approach consisting of various causal spillovers from sub-components of the market. This study is the first to analyze the cycle of container market using system dynamics. By utilizing system dynamics cyclicality approach, one-step ahead predictions are generated for monthly containerized freight index and compared to conventional benchmarks for post-sample validation. Our study can also help policymakers and shipping liners for better management and invest timing of container ship.     

连续航次下班轮运输燃油补给决策

为在保障班轮服务正常运营的前提下降低航运公司的燃油补给成本,建立以航运公司营运总成本最小为目标的连续航次下班轮运输燃油补给决策模型.采用线性逼近的方法建立航速与燃油消耗量之间的分段线性函数关系,将非线性优化模型转化为线性模型,利用线性优化软件求解.以1条实际班轮航线为例进行算例分析,求得该航线连续航次下的燃油补给策略和...     

澳东到新加坡最佳航法

全面阐述了大型船舶从澳大利亚东部到新加坡的航路、航法、潮流及通过该区域的注意事项,并将最近走过此航路的体会进行了汇总,为船舶从澳东到新加坡航行提供了具体详尽的资料和指导。     

强风下有帆商船航行性能的研究

Ships which have large structures above water surface, such as pure car carriers (PCCs) and container vessels, have large speed reduction by wind pressure. In the present study, the running speed of a large PCC with two or more sails for using wind power is simulated. The simulated results demonstrate that the ship can keep a constant service speed even in winds of 20m/s except head and bow winds. This sail system can shorten annual average navigation time by about 4 hours per voyage.     

Studying port selection on liner routes: An approach from logistics perspective

The research aims to study the port selection in liner shipping. The central work is to set up a model to deal with port choice decisions. The model solves three matters: ports on a ship’s route; the order of selected ports and loading/unloading ports for each shipment. Its objective is to minimize total cost including ship cost, port tariff, inland transport cost and inventory cost. The model has been applied in real data, with cargo flows between the USA and Northern Europe. Afterwards, two sensitive analyses are considered. The first assesses the impact of a number of port calls on the total cost which relates closely to the viability of two service patterns: multi ports and hub & spoke. The second analyzes the efficiency of large vessels in the scope of a logistics network. The overriding result of this research is to indicate the influence of logistics factors in the decision of port choice. The research emphasizes the necessity to combine different factors when dealing with this topic, or else a result can be one-sided.     

集装箱班轮公司成本管理分析

与不定期船运输相比,班轮运输经营需要大量的资本投入,如何控制成本一直是班轮公司的核心问题。本文首先对班轮运输成本构成进行了分析,然后对当前各班轮公司为降低成本所采取的主要措施进行了介绍与分析,期望能对班轮公司的成本管理有所借鉴。     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

92 TEU 长江三角洲内河集装箱船研究开发

本船型开发设计是配合交通部"运河及长江三角洲集装箱标准船型"的开发项目,结合江南水网的远景规划,借鉴国外内河优秀船型的先进设计经验,进行新船型的研究开发设计.本文首先进行船型方案的论证,提出开发92 TEU内河集装箱船经济上是有利的,技术上是可行的,接着对92 TEU内河集装箱船进行研究、开发设计,最后把该船型与目前在航船舶进行经济比较,证明该船的开发是成功的.     

直立式岸壁折角处泊位长度优化研究

随着船舶大型化的发展,运用《海港总平面设计规范》中直立式岸壁折角处船长系数计算大型码头泊位长度时,易造成一定的岸线资源浪费。在原规范制定思路的基础上,分析和推导了在不同角度、不同船型、不同靠泊状态下直立式岸壁折角处船船(岸)间距与船舶尺度的关系和规律;细化了折角处不对称靠泊情况下的船长系数取值。同时,结合实际操船经验对大型船舶在不同折角情况下的船长系数进行优化和修正,在保证船舶操船安全的前提下,适度减少折角处泊位的富裕长度,达到节约岸线资源的目的。     

Evaluating economic and environmental value of liner vessel sharing along the maritime silk road

The Belt and Road initiative is a novel exploration of China towards strategic collaboration with Eurasia countries to an extent of a larger scale with higher and deeper level of cooperation. To meet the growing global demand of transportation, increasing numbers of liner shipping companies collaborate and form alliances to share vessel capacity and reduce capital costs. Effective liner shipping vessel sharing is essential for the Belt and Road initiative in terms of building efficient maritime transport networks. In promoting environmental development, shipping companies are required to attain higher environmental standards. However, limited literature relates vessel sharing to environmental performance. This paper studies the impacts of liner vessel sharing from the economic and environmental perspectives. Two container allocation models are developed for the two scenarios: with and without vessel sharing. The carbon emissions in transportation are calculated under both scenarios. Numerical studies are carried out using services along the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic (CIPE) Corridor. Liner shipping companies could benefit from vessel sharing in terms of significant profit improvement. Vessel sharing could also benefit the environment by reducing the CO₂ emissions dramatically.     

西方航运资本的入侵与上海的近代海运业

鸦片战争之后西方资本入侵中国，洋轮直驶我国沿海江河，传统的木帆船运输业受到剧烈冲击，急速衰落，但以轮船为标志的近代海运业出现了。上海的近代海运业由外国资本、本国官僚资本和民族资本等３种成份构成。西方资本的航运企业垄断上海的航运业达１００年，掠取了中国人民的巨额财富。官僚资本的轮船招商局在西方资本航运企业的刺激影响下出现，又在其排挤、打击下艰难地生存和发展。民族资本的轮船公司深受西方资本和官僚资本的双重抑制、打击，生存更为艰难，历程异常坎坷。     

Container liner freight index based on data from e-booking platforms

This article proposes a framework for a daily container freight index (DCFI) and investigates a number of principles in the design of this type of indices. Based on a comparative analysis with the existing container freight indices, we explore a method of integrating the framework with the use of data from e-booking platforms and illustrate why the new index can provide more insightful information for shippers. We also apply the framework to have a daily Shanghai container freight index by combining data sources from the platforms linked to the Shanghai port. By implementing the index to a risk analysis problem, we use numerical results to show the DCFI’s potential position in real hedging problems for container liner markets.     

我国集装箱班轮运输市场垄断程度研究

从市场集中度指数、市场力量和垄断行为3个方面考察我国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的垄断程度，显然高于将全球作为“一个”市场的程度。从市场集中度指数可以认为我国班轮运输市场已经达到中型寡头垄断程度。我国远洋班轮航线的勒纳指数高于0．6，甚至接近于1，说明班轮公司市场力量之强大。而我国现行的法律法规中没有为班轮运输市场的买方预设运价谈判和利益诉求机制，则使运输需求快速增长的中国外贸企业明显处于弱势地位。     

集装箱航运服务组合拍卖模型研究

根据运输的“范围经济性”原理,阐述了集装箱航运服务组合拍卖的适用性,围绕价值因素和价值评价因素,分析了集装箱航运服务组合拍卖的比较优势,结合集装箱航运服务的特点,以拍卖者效用最大化和投标者总估值最大化平衡为目标,设计出了组合拍卖的机制和运作程序;针对组合拍卖中的竟胜标问题,建立了集装箱航运服务组合拍卖的一般优化模型,并通过引入集装箱航运服务质量属性参数和运量限制等约束条件,对其进行了改进。从而为实现集装箱航运服务在线拍卖提供理论支持和计算平台。     

Crucial factors influencing international logistics operations for African landlocked countries – A case study of Burkina Faso

ABSTRACT

This study aims to evaluate the crucial factors influencing international logistics operations for African landlocked countries. To this end, a case study and a questionnaire survey were conducted. A total of 147 usable responses from container shipping firms were obtained as a result of the questionnaire survey. The results of factor analysis revealed that transportation capability, external risks, information integration, logistics infrastructure, local agents’ logistics capability, and national law and policy were crucial factors influencing the logistics operations of African landlocked countries. Specifically, local agents’ logistics capability was perceived by respondents to be the most important factor. Moreover, the results of the study also indicated that the highest factor mean values of small shipping companies were related to transportation capability, external risks and the local agents’ logistics capability, whereas container shipping companies that arranged trucks for inland transportation paid more attention to the external risks, logistics infrastructure, the local agents’ logistics capability, and national law and policy.     

宁波港大榭岛30万t级油码头平面布置

在油码头建设中,往往要求接卸油品的大型码头可以兼靠较小船型用于油品出运。以本工程为例,码头要求停靠的船舶最大为44万t,最小为1 000 t级。结合本工程的平面布置特点,介绍当设计船型种类较多、大小差别较大时,在平面布置设计中需要重点考虑的问题。     

Seasonality patterns in the container shipping freight rate market

Shipping indexes have attracted many researchers because they reflect the overall trend of corresponding seaborne markets and can provide implications for the future. Apart from the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) and correlated indices, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been gaining more attention. As a country with large-scale manufacturing, China is an important exporting country and the CCFI was chosen to reflect the container shipping market because the data are more convincing and representative. There have been no systematic attempts to understand the seasonality patterns of container freights. Seasonality patterns reveal the regular fluctuation patterns within a 1-year period. They exist in time series, which are observed more than once a year, like the CCFI. To investigate the nature of seasonality (stochastic and/or deterministic) in container freight rates across different line services, we analyze the CCFI. This paper uses the HEGY method and Monte Carlo method comprehensively to figure out the small sample problem. In addition, seasonal dummy variables are used to test deterministic seasonality. Except for the Japan service series, which contains a half-year unit root, the other container freight rates seem to only involve a non-seasonal unit root at the zero frequency. Deterministic seasonality exists in all the line service series. Furthermore, the seasonality depends on the balance between supply and demand. Under this premise, the seasonal law of freight rates is much obvious.     

集装箱船艉伴流场和螺旋桨参数分析

通过搜集近几年集装箱船螺旋桨相关数据,统计分析了集装箱船随装箱量增加带来的船型、主机功率及船尾伴流场的变化,以及经济因素等带来的螺旋桨负荷和相关主参数特征设计的变化,为当前集装箱船螺旋桨设计主参数的选取提供参考,具有较强的工程意义。