Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

Mode selection of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport for ro-ro shipping under land-sea combined transportation

ABSTRACT

Combining ro-ro shipping and tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport under land-sea combined transportation can reduce operating costs and improve the safety of maritime transport. In addition, selection of the tractor-and-semitrailer swap mode (i.e., the ship-swap mode and port-swap mode) is a critical factor that affects the efficiency and cost of ro-ro ship loading/unloading. Considering inland pickup/delivery and ship loading/unloading, this paper develops a model that determines the mode of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport with the objective of minimizing the total cost. This study also considers constraints such as empty semitrailer exchange and multiple time windows associated with customer receiving/delivery locations and the ro-ro ship. A hybrid simulated annealing (SA) is applied to solve the problem. By analysing numerical examples, the results show that the port-swap mode is more suitable than the ship-swap mode when the number of tasks is large because the port-swap mode can perform more tasks with fewer tractors than the ship-swap mode and because the port-swap mode can service receiving/delivery locations and finish ship loading/unloading more punctually than the ship-swap mode. Thus, this research provides a useful reference for road transport carriers and port firms to select the mode of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport for ro-ro shipping.     

Determinants of the damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the property damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents. Detailed data of individual ferry vessel accidents for the 11-year timeperiod 1991–2001 that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard are used to estimate ferry-vessel accident property damage cost and injury severity equations. Tobit regression is used to estimate the former equation and the ordered probit model is used to estimate the latter. Property damage costs include damage costs to the vessel itself, its cargo and contents, and other-property damage (e.g., damage to pier structures and waterfront facilities). Injury severity for a ferry vessel accident is measured as an ordinal variable — no injuries, non-fatal injuries and fatal injuries. Damage cost and injury severity of individual ferry vessel accidents are expressed as functions of the type of vessel accident, vessel characteristics, vessel operation phase, weather/visibility conditions, type of waterway, type of vessel propulsion, type of vessel hull construction and cause of vessel accident. The property damage estimation results suggest that allision, collision and fire ferry vessel accidents incur more vessel property damage cost per vessel gross ton than other types of accidents. The injury severity estimation results suggest that injury severity is greater when the ferry vessel accident is caused by human error as opposed to vessel and environmental factors.     

具有自动进化及优化功能的综合港口国监督选船模型

文中论述了目前中国海事局所遵循的东京备忘录港口国监督选船机制中存在的诸多不足之处,提出了结合正反馈限制广义相加模型的修正方法。该方法可以有效削弱选船机制中恶性＂马太效应＂,并根据数据的积累进行自我进化及优化。此外,作者还提出了将船舶事故因素纳入到选船机制的思路和具体工作流程,以及包含＂港口国监督检查指导建议＂的选船机制的思路和实现方式。     

仿真技术在船舶碰撞事故再现中的应用

船舶碰撞的研究始终是航行安全或海上交通安全研究领域的热点问题。介绍了应用船舶操纵模拟器模拟碰撞过程的仿真技术,它是目前进行海上事故鉴定和事故分析的重要技术手段。首先利用仿真技术对当事船舶的碰撞过程进行实时动态仿真,再通过船舶碰撞事故分析软件(船舶碰撞事故分析系统2.0)进行分析,最后的仿真结果对船长、驾驶员具有重要的参考价值,也为海上安全主管机关调查处理船舶碰撞事故提供一种新的途径。     

A study on time constraints and task deviations at sea leading to accidents – a cultural-historical perspective

The high frequency of maritime accidents and incidents occurring at sea has been a major challenge for the maritime industry in the last decades. The majority of these accidents are attributed to seafarers’ poor performance. This, despite the fact that the international maritime domain continues to adopt and update conventions regulating maritime safety to mitigate these accidents from occurring. In this paper, utilising a qualitative research approach, we show through a socio-cultural contextual perspective that time constraints as a major influencing factor in causing task deviations at sea which leads to dangerous situations. We analyse how some of the present barriers in place to prevent accidents at sea are in effect prompt seafarers who are working under time pressure to deviate from their task. Moreover, the paper discusses the social constituents such as job insecurity and the seafarers’ viewpoint towards the ship operators’ commitment to safe ship operations are crucial in motivating seafarers’ deviating from the task at hand when faced with time pressure.     

Risk assessment of inland waterborne transportation using data mining

ABSTRACT

China has constructed a relatively complete inland waterborne transportation system. However, the frequent occurrence of inland water accidents with serious consequences, like the catastrophic Orient Star shipwreck, is an urgent unsolved problem. To reduce such accidents in the future and improve inland waterborne transportation safety, this study uses data mining, mainly containing text mining and association rule mining to risk assess China’s inland waterborne transportation, rather than the traditional quantitative risk assessment model. Text mining enables the risk factors to be objectively identified and distilled from accident reports. The potential relationships between risk variables are explored using association rule mining, based on the FP-Growth algorithm. The results reveal the essential problem facing China’s inland waterborne transportation system: frequent and varied ship accidents; key risk factors include overloading or improper loading, poor navigation visibility, inadequate sailor competence, and insufficient government supervision of shipowners and shipping companies. Combining the actual circumstances of inland waterborne transportation operations, this study proposes relevant recommendations for governments and relevant supervisory departments. The integrated application of text mining and association rule mining serves to avoid uncertainty and subjectivity, and achieve good results proving their scientific nature as a feasible method in water transportation risk research.     

Causes of casualties and the regulation of occupational health and safety in the shipping industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate maritime safety from an occupational hazards perspective as opposed to a maritime casualty perspective. It is recognised that safety in shipping should encompass casualties arising from accidents occurring in the course of performing normal seafaring duties, not just those arising from technical defects or maritime disasters. The paper discusses an investigation involving a survey of 19 flag states and two detailed studies of records kept at the Hong Kong and Singapore maritime administrations. The results indicate that occupational accidents account for a significant proportion of fatalities at sea. The statistics presented specify the ship types that are most at risk, as well as the types of occupational hazards that can most frequently lead to accidents and fatalities. The results of this study indicate voids in the process of investigating fatalities that relate to occupational accidents. These results also indicate inadequate investigation of events and causes. The creation of a database of such information could potentially be used for the development of appropriate regulations that could prevent fatal and non-fatal occupational accidents through regulatory processes.     

Testing port choice models using physical and monetary data: a comparative case study for the Spanish container trades

ABSTRACT

Transport costs are useful explanatory variables in port choice research. Nevertheless, the availability of such information usually poses a problem. Thus, the formulation of an alternative approach, to be used as a proxy of these variables, would be desirable. The objective of this study is to improve the analysis of container port choice using logit models by adopting physical non-monetary indicators based on maritime distance and ship size. The statistical tests of logit models on port choice using these new variables are compared with the result of using cost variables for the same data set of choice positions. The statistical outcome is good and allows us to present this new approach as a contribution to the literature on port choice modeling.     

Determinants of the property damage costs of bulk barge accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, cargo, and other-property damage costs of bulk barge accidents in US inland waterways. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, in bulk barge accidents: (1) vessel damage cost is greater for collision, fire/explosion, and material/equipment failure accidents than for groundings; (2) cargo damage cost is greater at night and when the weather is foggy and increases with barge age; and (3) otherproperty damage cost is greater for multi-vessel accidents, but decreases with barge size. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $1.38, while a dollar of cargo damage cost increases this cost by $6.90. An important result for formulating bulk barge accident cost-reduction policies is that a given determinant might have a negative effect on one type of damage cost but a positive effect on another.     

Full six degrees of freedom coupled dynamic simulation of ship collision and grounding accidents

By taking advantage of the user-defined load subroutine (loadud) and the user common subroutine (usercomm) in LS-DYNA, the authors proposed a new coupled approach for simultaneously calculating structural damage and the planar 3DOF ship motions in ship collisions. The coupled procedure aimed at predicting the detailed structural damage together with reasonable global ship motions. This paper extends the method to consider the full 6DOF ship motions; thus, ship collision as well as grounding accidents can be properly handled. This method is particularly useful for design purposes because the detailed ship hull profile is not needed.A traditional ship maneuvering model is used for the in-plane surge, sway and yaw degrees of freedom with a series of nondimensional coefficients determined from experiments. It is assumed that the out-of-plane degrees of freedom are not coupled with the in-plane ship motions, and there is no coupling among roll, pitch and heave motions. The implementation is verified through free decay tests, and the obtained natural periods show good agreement with theoretical results.Several collision and grounding cases are simulated in which a supply vessel crashes into rigid plates with different orientations. The effects of the roll motion, the heave and pitch motions and the full 6DOF motions are studied. The results are compared with those from a 6DOF decoupled method. Ship motions through the proposed method compare reasonably well with SIMO results. It is found that several consecutive impacts may occur in the simulation of one collision case due to the periodic motions. This is not taken into account in the decoupled method, which makes this method unconservative.     

Analysis of ship drifting in a narrow channel using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data

With maritime transportation has played an important role in global economy development, ship traffic has become more congested. Therefore, ships navigate under risk conditions, and thus maritime accidents have occurred frequently. Especially, ship passing through a narrow channel is even more dangerous. Because, the ships are easy to be affected by external forces such as wind and currents that can cause ship drifts. Many latent risks are present during navigation. In order for the development of a sensible and appropriate traffic model for the safety and efficiency ship navigation, this study has focused on the actual ship behavior to understand the ship drift in the Kurushima Strait, Japan, which is one of the most dangerous routes in Japan. The analysis of ship behavior was carried out using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. As a result, the ships drift was understood in detail, and the latent risk was unveiled when ships pass through the narrow route. Moreover, the risk areas were obtained and visualized by the ship drift behavior analysis. The obtained results can be applied to ensure safe navigation and the development of an eco-friendly and economy efficient for ship navigation.     

洋浦港防台锚地锚泊安全因素分析及建议

位于海南岛西北部的洋浦港既是海南省航运大港,其防台锚地亦是海南岛优质防台锚地,每年防台期间,来港防台船舶远超防台锚地船舶理论保障数,台风期间船舶险情事故频发,造成了船员人身危险及船舶财产巨大损失。文中就洋浦港船舶防台安全形势及影响防台锚地锚泊安全的因素进行分析研究,尝试提出建议,希望能为海事部门及船舶解决防台船舶锚地选择问题提供一些帮助,保障辖区防台船舶安全。     

中速三体船型PCC的可行性研究(英文)

In the present paper, a new trimaran Pure Car Carrier (PCC) is proposed and a feasibility study on the ship is carried out. In this study, first, the effective horse power (EHP)/car of the PCC running in still water is predicted. By comparing the predicted EHP/car with that of a conventional mono-hull PCC, it is found that the trimaran PCC is superior to the conventional mono-hull PCC at rather higher speed. As ship speed increases, the reduction of the resistance of the trimaran is bigger. It is also found that at common service speed of PCCs, the EHP/car of a small PCC is lower than that of a conventional PCC. Secondly, the optimal L/B of a main-hull of the trimaran PCC in still water is determined. The optimal L/B of the main-hull varies with ship speed and size because the wave resistance decreases but the frictional resistance increases as L/B of the hull increases. As ship size increases, the optimal L/B of the main-hull of the trimaran PCC decreases.     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

海上短波远程通信链路仿真预测

采用ICECAP高频传输预测软件对海上舰船与岸基多台站之间的短波远距离通信电路进行仿真分析,计算了最高可用频率、信噪比和舰载鞭状天线的场强分布,分析了天线的场强覆盖,在满足信噪比的要求及频率低于MUF的条件下,计算出场强中值大于接收机灵敏度的台站个数,形象地描述了海上短波远程通信过程。     

厦门湾附近水域船舶定线制的研究

论述了厦门湾附近水域船舶定线的目的。利用厦门海事局VTS中心的设备进行了连续3天的交通流实态观测及海上交通事故的统计分析,得到厦门湾附近水域的船舶交通特点,根据海上交通工程理论与方法,提出厦门湾附近水域船舶定线制的设计方案。     

灰色系统理论在海上交通事故预测中的应用

以某港口2001～2007年海上交通事故统计数据为依据,应用灰色系统预测理论,建立该港口海上交通事故的GM(1,1)模型和UGM(1,1)模型,进行定量计算,结合定性分析,从而预测出该港口2008年海上交通事故的数量,以及2008年各种海上交通事故的比例.     

海事机构实施强制清污条件及清污费用求偿的思考

随着海上运输业的持续发展,船舶溢油事故风险也随之增加,发生船舶污染事故后,海事机构有权实施强制清污避免或者减少污染损害,但是对实施强制清污的条件及由此产生清污费用的求偿路径,理论与实务界存在诸多争议。文中由一起厦门海域发生的强制清污案例引发思考,从实务角度出发,用推演法分析实施强制清污的几种情况,探讨各清污主体之间的关系,得到清污单位直诉清污义务人合理结论,并给出实施该追偿路径的相关建议。     

试论水上交通事故预防预控的关键

文中从人、船及环境三个方面对长江张家港段水上交通事故进行归纳分析和论述，论述突破传统观念，提出海轮行为是碰撞事故预防预控的关键因素等理念，旨在对避免事故发生有所促进，并奢望对整个长江江苏段水上交通安全能有所裨益。